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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 19th Mar 2014, 23:45
  #6261 (permalink)  
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These Kota Bahru Fisherman definitely saw something.

Several ground witnesses claim they saw Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 - CNN.com

The airport there closes at midnight or remains open for late departures. Also the VOR VKB is a very busy airway intersection and a lot of traffic very high overhead. Maybe our reported Radar hits from Thailand and Malaysia saw the aircraft flying towards KOTA BAHRU, and followed some other target after VKB.
Obviously the description "lights like coconuts"means the aircraft landing lights were on. So it was below 10000 feet. Was it trying to land at WMKC. Maybe our Flightradar24 friends can show what was flying through and above VKB around 0130am?
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Old 19th Mar 2014, 23:46
  #6262 (permalink)  
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"satellite signal can only come from a moving plane - BBC has learned" no source given

What they probably mean is the air/ground logic has to be 'Air' for a signal to be transmitted, no guarantee the aircraft ever reverted to 'Ground'?
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Old 19th Mar 2014, 23:49
  #6263 (permalink)  
 
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The final destination

suninmyeyes #6060

Very well explained indeed.

Would not all the evidence (and lack of it) so far leave the signature of a pilot (?who) on a suicide mission with the intention of no one ever finding any evidence? Also no suicide note found, so far.

Besides the aussies are quite sure of an area in the South Indian Ocean (in line of pings and probable point of fuel exhaustion (albeit responsible for this quadrant's search).
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Old 19th Mar 2014, 23:49
  #6264 (permalink)  
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Heading to the South Pole

Apparently

BBC News - New clues in search for Malaysia Airlines MH370
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Old 19th Mar 2014, 23:55
  #6265 (permalink)  
 
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What chance that the turns etc were searching for an airport that would have lights on?

Just thinking that in an emergency with no comms, flying on visuals mostly, landing on an unlit airfield is going to be something to avoid, if not impossible, and I would guess that different airfields have different policies after curfew.

(Non professional long time lurker)-
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Old 19th Mar 2014, 23:56
  #6266 (permalink)  
 
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**If** this indeed occurred, it seems to me to be pretty important in working out causation as it would show:

- there was something wrong enough to cause incoherence and, it seems likely, no further subsequent contact;
- radio working, with Fariq speaking; but
- crucially: there is no attempt by MH 370 to hide itself (e.g. by simply not answering) and indeed there is action inconsistent with an attempt at stealth

The latter would be hard to reconcile with a rogue flight deck or intruder bent on stealth, unless it is the aftermath of a scenario similar to FedEx 705 with either: a rogue left able to fly stealthily and who does so, or no-one left able to continue flying.

911 hijackers mistakenly transmitted to ATC when they meant to make an announcement to the cabin, the reported mumbling could simply be a mis-keyed mic from a rouge on the flight deck.


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Old 20th Mar 2014, 00:00
  #6267 (permalink)  
 
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Im thoroughly confused. Initialy I thought it was wrong of anyone to assert as fact that they knew when a new waypoint was inserted into the flight plan. But I came here and the posts I read seemed to me to accept the premise. I retired 10 years ago but do not recall that a flightplan change was somehow automatically reported to the ground.

But now, "what we know" is being challenged---here anyway, not on CNN. For two days CNN has been challenging its "experts" to explain why a new off course waypoint was entered into the flight plan. As in this report from WOLF today. And I quote:

" significant new developments.....and right now to that sharp turn to the west that the jet took about an hour after takeoff. A senior US official tells CNN the altered route was actually entered into the plane guidance system at least 12 minutes before the co-pilot signed off with air traffic controllers with the words 'all right, good night'".

Someone please tell me how anyone would know what was entered into the flight plan short of someone transmitting that info via acars.

this is a question.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 00:03
  #6268 (permalink)  
 
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#6060 suninmyeyes.

Point of interest - you mention that you never select Stby. on the transponder, even when selecting a new squawk ?

"in my day" we were told to always select stby. when re-selecting, to guard against "accidentally" - even momentarily - pausing on one of the "77XX" emergency selections whilst re-arranging the numbers, to do so would immediately set off an alarm in the ATC unit monitoring, and even if immediately changed would raise suspicions that you were in trouble, and subsequently trying to mask the situation - i.e. a hijack attempt, so action would be irrevocably started.

What's changed ?

Thanks.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 00:03
  #6269 (permalink)  
 
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Tonight's BBC report

One big thing I took away from this is that the Australians appear to be taking a larger public role, as is the NTSB. That's good.

The other big thing is the AMSA guy saying there were multiple SATCOM "keep-alive" pings, and their records are available. They have some more processing to do on those pings.

They're also saying the aircraft may have been on a 180-degree heading, but they didn't say where that track began.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 00:07
  #6270 (permalink)  
 
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@Sheep guts

Maybe our Flightradar24 friends can show what was flying through and above VKB around 0130am?
At 17.30Z, the only flight in the air above Kota Bharu was China Eastern Flight MU5093, going south towards Singapore at 37,000ft.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 00:11
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@DCrefugee

So there saying there is more than six pings?
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 00:11
  #6272 (permalink)  
 
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Flight plan change

costalpilot #6388

tell me how anyone would know what was entered into the flight plan

Incidentally, at the KL press conf today, it was questioned and denied. They were sure that no other flight plan was on the plane.

This begs the question as to who entered a new flight plan - turnback - zig-zag -then out over the wide blue ocean towards the South Pole.

Last edited by brika; 20th Mar 2014 at 00:13. Reason: word correction
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 00:11
  #6273 (permalink)  
 
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@ ExSp33db1rd

What's changed ?
The current generation of transponder control heads use push-buttons to enter the code, so the code does not 'change' until the fourth and final digit is entered. The older rotary controls would of course scroll through the digits as they were changed, so if you paused mid-entry, you'd get an undesired code - some of the more recent rotary units have a few seconds 'pause' built into them, such that the code isn't 'set' until you stop turning the controls for 3-5 seconds (yet again negating the need to select STBY).
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 00:13
  #6274 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator
Are you suggesting stacked beam height finding rather than a nodder?
I don't think I've seen a nodder in years. The more modern three dimensional radars are usually stationary antennas with electronically scanned/steered beams. There are also stacked beams and multipath radars that do the same. Not sure what the new MADGE system is.

When an aircraft is maneuvering the size of the primary response can vary considerably particularly aircraft with large vertical surfaces like the T7. All I was pointing out was that sudden increases in signal can cause quite large errors in the primary systems height finding.

I think that the last nodder I watched was at Lindholme
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 00:19
  #6275 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by auraflyer
One "fact" that has not been mentioned much here is the (supposed) radio contact between MH 370 and another aircraft in which an MH 370 pilot (likely the FO) was reported to be "mumbling".

As reported (and the source seems to be MISSING MH370: Pilot: I established contact with plane - General - New Straits Times on 9 March):

Based on the timing, the reported destination (NRT), the statement that the aircraft was a 777 and was "far into Vietnamese airspace when he was asked to relay" and the fact that the pilot knew enough to recognise the voices on MH 370, the relevant flight would appear to be MAS 88, KUL-NRT, a 772, scheduled dep 23:35, which was near Da Nang at that time.
So: what is the source and status of this "fact"? I haven't been able to find anything "official" (for what that's worth), but it seems unlikely that the NST would print something like that if it were complete fiction.
I've posted on this report by NST 5 days ago: Radio contact with MH88, but this alleged communication between MH370 and MH88 was never confirmed by other sources.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 00:19
  #6276 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SLFplatine
Quote [Old Carthusian]:
However, even though the rarity of the hijack or pilot deviance explanation is significant this particular line of investigation still fits the known facts better.

Correct: While several theories could fit the facts of plane going 'dark' (cascading electrical, mechanical failures for whatever reason) and turning west off course (airworthiness, compromised avionics issues, cockpit fire -head for the nearest airfield you know) there is the fact of the Immarsat data indicating the plane continued to fly for 7+ hours (and the turn was per-programmed) -Unless of course the Immarsat data is not a valid incontrovertible fact which raises a whole set of questions as to why it has officially been presented as such.
And the INMARSAT data shows that the aircraft did not go dark due to total power failure as power was still on to the SATCOM.

While it is difficult to follow the repeats of assertions of denials of assertions of corrected information .... It is apparent that the INMARSAT data is believed by the Australian, New Zealand and US maritime reconnaissance who are flying out into the middle of nowhere and also by the Chinese who are searching again in potentially reachable areas. I rather doubt that these new searches would be happening due to a PR statement.

What is clear is that the public (which unfortunately includes us) is not being given the full picture - for obvious reasons.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 00:20
  #6277 (permalink)  
 
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John Young AMSA briefing

John Young AMSA (Emergency response division) briefing was very interesting.
Acting on information from NTSB He explained that:

"Regular messages from the aircraft, at approximately hourly intervals during its flight. Those transmission were detected by a communications satellite over the indian ocean and with the time of those communications and the distance, Then clarified "They can't plot exact distance but sequentially they can be build up into a route the aircraft took."
The wording here is crucial, it implies that all pings were received and from that, a 'join the dots' plot can be derived. This would be the first confirmation that all pings were received, not just the last one!
Unless the Australians are assuming this is what NTSB has done, this would indicate the aircraft has been plotted heading due south or of course due North as the arcs are mirrored!

Last edited by Heli-phile; 20th Mar 2014 at 00:31. Reason: added the final summary
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 00:21
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FWIW: every satcom I've worked on has gotten its position data from the FMS.

Working satcom implies working FMS to me...
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 00:27
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BBC News, which is usually very reliable, is reporting that the aircraft must have been flying at 8:11, although the reasoning behind this hasn't been revealed.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 00:34
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Apologies if this was already posted:

AMSA :: Australian Maritime Safety Authority

Most recent John Young press conference (excerpted on BBC):

https://drive.google.com/folderview?...1dxMzdSTHRMeW8

Summary update for 20 Mar 2014:

http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/documen...H370search.pdf

And the link to more media at the bottom of the PDF:

https://drive.google.com/folderview?...W8&usp=sharing

He cites the NTSB several times. The NTSB seems to have stopped posting after 12 March, with only one other release prior, on 8 March.

Press Release March 12, 2014

"NTSB UPDATES STATEMENT ON MISSING B-777 INVESTIGATION MARCH 12

National Transportation Safety Board investigators who traveled to Kuala Lumpur over the weekend are assisting Malaysian authorities who are leading the search efforts for the Boeing 777 that went missing five days ago.


Investigators with expertise in air traffic control and radar are providing technical assistance to the Malaysian authorities who are working on locating the missing jetliner.


The NTSB plans no further releases of information on the investigation."


8 March release:


Press Release March 8, 2014: NTSB positioning team to offer assistance in investigation of Malaysia Airlines 777 event


"NTSB positioning team to offer assistance in investigation of Malaysia Airlines 777 event
March 8

The National Transportation Safety Board has a team of investigators en route to Asia to be ready to assist with the investigation of the March 8 Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 event. The Boeing 777 went missing on a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.


Once the location of the airplane is determined, International Civil Aviation Organization protocols will determine which country will lead the investigation. Because of the lengthy travel time from the United States, the NTSB has sent a team of investigators, accompanied by technical advisers from Boeing and the Federal Aviation Administration, to the area so they will be positioned to offer U.S. assistance. The team departed from the U.S. tonight.


The country that leads the investigation will release all information about it."
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