Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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The statistical approach whilst attractive is fundamentally flawed. Just because an event happens frequently and even more frequently than other events does not mean that it will prove to be the cause of the next incident (if you want a spectacular illustration of this take a look at the Fukushima nuclear power station). The fire explanation is just as far fetched as any of the other explanations - perhaps even more so as it requires an even greater number of unlikely events to happen (which does not preclude it from being the explanation). However, even though the rarity of the hijack or pilot deviance explanation is significant this particular line of investigation still fits the known facts better.
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@ Contact Approach
This is exactly what I am trying to say. Electrical fire makes perfect sense for ACARS going off and pilots unaware of ACARS not transmitting, rather than a manual turn-off that everyone is implying.
MH370 was overcome by a fire, why is this being overlooked?
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@Elephant - The St Petersburg paradox and Bermoulli?
@Ramjet555. Yes, I agree with you. It certainly suits Boeing if the aircraft was never found.
If this incident followed the Occam's razor principle we'd have found the aircraft. Looks like we are following Hickam's dictum instead.
@Ramjet555. Yes, I agree with you. It certainly suits Boeing if the aircraft was never found.
If this incident followed the Occam's razor principle we'd have found the aircraft. Looks like we are following Hickam's dictum instead.
Originally Posted by Elephant and Castle
What many of you dont seem to realise is that ACARS outages are pretty common, even in the middle of Europe. ACARS comes in and out sometimes and pilots would think nothing of it, a station might be congested or doing some maintenance or whatever. Likewise transponders fail on occasion, not very often but again if a transponder failed during my flight I would think nothing of it, that is why we carry two of them. I would not know it has failed until ATC told me though and at that point i would just switch to the other transponder.
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In my A/C it would not show in the 777 I would imagine that it would depend on the failure mode. Either way it would be a low priority message and therefore buried underneath any other higher priority messages resulting from electrical / smoke / fire / pressurisation .
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I don't think probability works in the way you imply. ACARS fails quite regularly, once ACARS has failed what is the probability that the transponder fails? The same as it always has been for transponder failures. Unless there is a common mode failure in which case it is much higher.
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For all the fire/catastrophic failure merchants; How was the aircraft still pinging INMARSAT afterwards?
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Hypoxia is nasty and extremely insidious.
I have experienced it in a chamber. After spending 2 mins off Oxygen trying to fill in a worksheet, I only managed to make a start on my name at the top.
The first two letters of my name.
Apart from a big grin, I wasnt aware of any problem.
And this paralysis occured after a rapid decompression from 8000 to only F250.
I have experienced it in a chamber. After spending 2 mins off Oxygen trying to fill in a worksheet, I only managed to make a start on my name at the top.
The first two letters of my name.
Apart from a big grin, I wasnt aware of any problem.
And this paralysis occured after a rapid decompression from 8000 to only F250.
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Thai army says that they also monitored the plane for a while after it turned but because nobody asked them, they didnt share the info until now. !!!!!????? Are they for real?!!
Ok, I know the plane was at no time above thailand, so why do they even bother to release this info publicly now? Tell the Malaysians what you have and shut up.
Another thing that it hard to get for me. They see an unidentified plane in the area and they dont scrumble a fighterjet to check it out?! Im referring here to the Malaysians, of course. Wouldnt this be the normal reaction to a plane that fails to be identified through normal sops.
My humble opinion is that they have no clue where this plane is. Americans looking north, aussie searching south, chinese looking in the wrong place initially.......
My heart goes out to those poor souls and their families.
Ok, I know the plane was at no time above thailand, so why do they even bother to release this info publicly now? Tell the Malaysians what you have and shut up.
Another thing that it hard to get for me. They see an unidentified plane in the area and they dont scrumble a fighterjet to check it out?! Im referring here to the Malaysians, of course. Wouldnt this be the normal reaction to a plane that fails to be identified through normal sops.
My humble opinion is that they have no clue where this plane is. Americans looking north, aussie searching south, chinese looking in the wrong place initially.......
My heart goes out to those poor souls and their families.
Last edited by skytrax; 19th Mar 2014 at 08:01.
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Electrical fire
What type of electrical fire is severe enough to cause the failures on this flight, incapitate the crew, yet allow continued flight for 7 hours?
Smoke and or fumes could overcome the crew, if they failed to use the oxy masks,( or if oxy bottles inadvertently filled with nitrogen) however, the way I see it any type of fire that caused the aledged defects would certainly not allow continued flight.
IMHO, it is very likely that continued human intervention is most likely.
Smoke and or fumes could overcome the crew, if they failed to use the oxy masks,( or if oxy bottles inadvertently filled with nitrogen) however, the way I see it any type of fire that caused the aledged defects would certainly not allow continued flight.
IMHO, it is very likely that continued human intervention is most likely.
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There is absolutely no evidence the aircraft has been hijacked.
Sure the plane might have had some kind of fire or other disaster but the timing is very telling. No better time to disappear than at the hand off. Could be just a coincidence but I kinda doubt it.
That all the com/tracking equipment failed seems deliberate. Sure some disaster could have knocked out all the communications and tracking equipment (or the pilot's ability to use them) but left the ping? Once again, I kinda doubt it.
Thus our missing 777 will be found somewhere between maldives and seychelles, imo.
EDIT:
On the side of a possible disaster:
The aircraft might have been flying low to have breathable air rather than to avoid radar.
Last edited by lakedude; 19th Mar 2014 at 08:07.
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The East Rhodesian
For all the fire/catastrophic failure merchants; How was the aircraft still pinging INMARSAT afterwards?
For all the fire/catastrophic failure merchants; How was the aircraft still pinging INMARSAT afterwards?
Until all of the six pings and the message format are made public then I cant help but suspect gross incompetence and politics.
Dont you find it strange that the 40 degree arc if completed properly joining north route to south route passes very close to last point of contact.
Yes I know the centre part of the arc has been removed because POR didnt detect mh370 and the aircraft was supposedly detected on primary radar.
Seriously, nobody is really 100% sure that the primary paint was mh370 and if the aircraft was at sea level then POR would not have detected the plane as it would most likely be out of line of sight.
It is really important that the six ping locations nd message format be released to stop all this conjecture once and for all.
What exactly are they hiding and why is Inmarset not allowed to publish their data.
One thing that I consider odd...when over UK/Europe and there loss of comms..certain fast jets will appear beside the aircraft!
If Ho Chi Min ATC were desperately trying to contact the aircraft after It had said Good Night to KL ATC(I did read many posts ago that this was heard) why oh why did they not take the appropriate action then..
Tragic really that this action was not taken..or is it not done in Asia?
If Ho Chi Min ATC were desperately trying to contact the aircraft after It had said Good Night to KL ATC(I did read many posts ago that this was heard) why oh why did they not take the appropriate action then..
Tragic really that this action was not taken..or is it not done in Asia?
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Statistics
I notice people are misusing statistics on this thread to reject certain of the disapparance theories as being "too unlikely".
What they should realise is that even the more straightforward explanations (e.g. decompression or pilot suicide) are themselves incredibly unlikely and have only happened a minute number of times in the entire history of air travel.
The only certainty is that whatever the explanation is, it has to be extraordinary! And this means, in my view, that you can't discount the whackjob theories, no matter how odd they seem.
What they should realise is that even the more straightforward explanations (e.g. decompression or pilot suicide) are themselves incredibly unlikely and have only happened a minute number of times in the entire history of air travel.
The only certainty is that whatever the explanation is, it has to be extraordinary! And this means, in my view, that you can't discount the whackjob theories, no matter how odd they seem.
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Its probably all a massive load of nonsense to keep you all guessing. Aircraft caught fire and crashed somewhere unknown. They can't find it so cling to something else in their desperate attempts...
If Ho Chi Min ATC were desperately trying to contact the aircraft after It had said Good Night to KL ATC(I did read many posts ago that this was heard) why oh why did they not take the appropriate action then..
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If Ho Chi Min ATC were desperately trying to contact the aircraft after It had said Good Night to KL ATC(I did read many posts ago that this was heard) why oh why did they not take the appropriate action then..