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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:48   #4881 (permalink)
 
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The IOR satellite which heard the pings is more than 38000km straight above a point at 64E on the equator. That point is the centre of the red circle. If a circle is drawn with that centre it represents points that are equidistant from IOR.

The ping at 8:11am came from a point on that red circle.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:51   #4882 (permalink)
 
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Inmarsat pings

I find it strange that investigators talk about two possible routes based on Inmarsat pings. These are not routes, but merely candidates for the final resting point (+/- one hour's movement).

My understanding is that the satellite logged the signal round-trip time, which allowed to calculate the distance between the airplane and the satellite. So for every one of these 6 pings, there is a ring on the Earth surface where the airplane must have been during the ping. The portions of the ring that are too far away for the fuel load are cut away, and so we get the curve on the map as shown by investigators.

From the 6 pings, there must be 6 different rings. But we are only shown curves from a single ring (probably from the final one). Is there any information about the other 5 pings? It would at least help determine the lateral motion of the plane (how much it moved "towards" or "away" from the satellite).

If all 6 pings had the same round-trip time, it probably means the plane stood still (maybe flying a holding pattern until the fuel ran out). It is very improbable that the plane was programmed to fly a curve that would keep the same distance from the Inmarsat satellite for hours. This isn't a Great Circle route at all.

Unless of course the whole Inmarsat story is a cover for a leak from intelligence sources.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:52   #4883 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glendalegoon View Post
I realize I'm flying pretty low tech planes by some standards but PLEASE TELL ME HOW SOMEONE KNOWS IF THERE IS PREPROGRAMMED TURN IN the FMS without having the FMS present?

rigbyrigs, how does someone know without being on the plane if it is pre programmed?

I don['t know

anyone?
Yes, we now have news media reporting that the Malaysians are saying the turn was "Pre-programmed". What they aren't aren't saying is how they know this.

I fly the B777 and I can't think of a way for anyone to know what was programmed on the FMC of MH 370.

Some airlines can upload a flight plan directly to the aircraft, but even so, the pilot has to request the upload and activate the route.

This just seems to me like more bad information and more bad media reporting.

Last edited by Lost in Saigon; 17th Mar 2014 at 02:04.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:52   #4884 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by V-Jet View Post
The photo's I have seen of the Captains sim indicate to me it is little more than a toy.

I do NOT understand why someone with as much experience as this guy flying the real thing would build such a box, let alone use it! He could have used the Sim's at work, clearly he was senior enough to probably even bring friends in if he particularly wanted to.
I agree, it makes no sense at all. There is nothing he could learn from it for any conceivable purpose. A man goes home from work and then starts playing on his sim, which is the same as his work???
It is quite bizarre, and indicates someone obsessed.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:56   #4885 (permalink)
 
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@YYZjim
Quote:
Professional pilots should bear in mind that the MH370 S&R fiasco will likely result in the public's demanding changes. It might be wise for professional pilots to propose their own solution, rather than wait for governments and regulators to impose new rules. Perhaps the pilots' unions should propose that:
1. the automatic reporting system installed by the airframe manufacturer, which transmits data through the Inmarsat satellite system, be modified so that it sends a GPS position as well as hull data;
2. that the frequency of the Inmarsat reports be increased from every half-hour to, say, once every ten minutes;
3. that this reporting system be tied to the aircraft's main power bus (and thus placed outside human control); and
4. that the pilots' unions would pay the marginal cost which, at $2.00 per transmission, is not very much at all.
This service would:
1. increase the difficulty of a third-party hijacking;
2. protect all pilots from the stain on them which may remain if the mystery of MH370 is never sorted out; and
3. provide much comfort to future passengers.
Damn straight, Sir

This probably warrants a thread of its own as it is not necessarily unique to this event (thought it will be triggered by it).

From a technical point of view the frequency of transmissions need not be in static intervals.
Transponder signals are somewhat continuous (short intervals).
ACARS can be dynamic in intervals depending on the "health" of the airframe. If all is good space them out or if faults/irregularities are detected send as often as possible.

While in flight, I see no reason that anyone should have control over that type of communication.

Last edited by MrDK; 17th Mar 2014 at 04:18.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:57   #4886 (permalink)
 
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"Thunder Ball"
Sooner not later they will cut back the searches, A notoice will come out "Please watch out for XYZ"
It's all about money, Not people. CYA not the truth.
The insurance carriers, Joint power Authorities & your Corrupt public officals will lead the way.

That plane can sit in 2 conditions.
1, Hijacked in one peice waittin for the payout.
2, Hijacked in a watery or dry smokin hole. Someone goofed.
3, Used as a weapon & blown out of the sky. Nobody wants to come clean.
Door 1, 2 or 3
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:57   #4887 (permalink)
 
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Transponder ID change?

Can the transponder on a 777 have its ID changed during flight?

That is is it possible to change the ICAO aircraft unique serial number and/or aircraft identification parameters.

If so, is it feasible MH370 was 'rebirthed' while out of civil radar range and entered new airspace as a different aircraft?

Last edited by Mahatma Kote; 17th Mar 2014 at 03:28. Reason: add ICAO number
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 02:00   #4888 (permalink)
 
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Sheep Guts says

Quote:
Reasons not to stop searching in the South China Sea

1. Last SSR 01:22 am near IGARI waypoint
Last sightings (both military and civilian radar, plus eye witness accounts) had it back both over and past the peninsula after that time

Quote:
2. Very descriptive eyewitness account from the Song Mercur Oil Rig off Vung Tau. Which was checked by 1 Veitnam Aircraft only, no sea or sea floor sonar search ever done to date.


he was 370 miles away. I don't know how many more times that can be stressed! His account is not creditable in the sense of "having anything to do with this investigation."

Plus, Vietnam told Malaysia on day 1 they watched the plane turn around, so it is not like it would have continued moving towards him - if anything, that distance would have been greater than 370 when he claims to have seen who knows what


Quote:
3. The 40 degree IOR Satellite ring passes through the same area South Veitnam coast . Which is only being discounted for one reason radar coverage. The last ping at 08:11 am was on this 40 degree ring. Some reports saying all the pings came from 1 place. Yes they did come from one place, the wreckage in the South China Sea until it sunk some time after 08:11am.
By 8:11 there were ships, planes and satellites searching the area. How exactly did they miss a 777 sitting on the sea surface? (let alone one only 30-75 meters below the surface if it did actually sink)


...so the question is, do you have a real actually factual reason to search there, or is it just a gut feeling telling us to continue to search the very small body of very shallow water for more than the 8 days 14 countries already searched it?
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 02:00   #4889 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Israel Prepares for Possible Attack by Hijacked Malaysian Plane

As terrorism fears grow in Malaysian plane case, Israeli officials increase already-tight precautions

By Times of Israel staff and AP March 16, 2014, 9:41 pm EDT

Israel has tightened security in its airspace following the disappearance and possible hijacking of Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 on March 8, Channel 2 reported Sunday.

According to the report, security officials and aviation authorities recently held a security assessment and decided upon a series of security measures intended to enhance safety in Israeli airspace.

Among the measures, airliners are now required to identify themselves much earlier when approaching Israel’s airspace. [anybody see this yet in a NOTAM? - Airbubba] Other actions were not disclosed at this time.

The increased security came as El Al’s former global security chief told The Times of Israel he believes that the disappearance of the Malaysia Airlines flight points directly to Iran.
Israel tightens airspace security after jet's disappearance | The Times of Israel

Once again, obviously there is still very much that is not being disclosed publically.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 02:02   #4890 (permalink)
 
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DCrefugee said

Quote:
Not my understanding of the public information. ACARS was shut down shortly after feet wet and before Malaysian ATC bid the flight farewell. Shortly after which the transponder(s) was/were disabled.

The SATCOM system, however, continued to function, in a sort of keep-alive mode, but did not pass flight or aircraft data to the satellite(s). It's the last of those recurring signals that Inmarsat has plotted along roughly the 40N arcs.
It is a ACARS transmitted data collection though, from everything I understand

Don't have time right now to search for a better mention, but here is a quick one at least

Quote:
Modern aircraft can communicate with airline operations bases and sometimes with the headquarters of its manufacturers automatically in order to send maintenance alerts known as ACARS messages. It was this system that sent out the regular ping, which may have lasted for several hours, the sources said.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 02:03   #4891 (permalink)
 
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cockpitvisit

The ping information released was only from the final 8:11am ping. Info about the earlier pings has not been released although there was apparently some unconfirmed rumour from CNN earlier this morning that the previous ping was from the same distance as the last.

The pings do just give us distance from satellite (based on signal travel time).

Yes, the investigators must have other rings for earlier pings.

The fact that POR and AORE did not hear pings at 8:11am rules out parts of the red circle. Travel distance also helps a little.

That gives two red arcs: north and south.

The plane either went to the north arc or the south one. Thus there are loosely two ``routes''.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 02:06   #4892 (permalink)
 
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Role of ACARS event log:

"Event Log – In near real-time, the event log gives you a view of what is happening
in your fleet worldwide. From data taken from the Aircraft Management System and
transmitted through the EFB channel, you can determine what aircraft are on, in,
out or off. You can also access communications open/close events, view messages
sent or received, or determine when new content has been downloaded for transfer to
an aircraft."

(of course ACRS must be ON/active!!!)
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 02:10   #4893 (permalink)
 
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Question for ana1936

ana1936 posted some time ago:
"The red arcs are determined just by working out the accurate distance of the ping source from one single satellite (IOR).

The ping messages are very accurately timestamped using very accurate clocks at both ends. Even though this communication system is not for GPS purposes it uses similarly accurate clocks. So we know that the plane was, say 38000km, from the satellite at 0:11Z.

That gives a circle on the surface of the earth.(The so-called 40 degree circle).

No other satellites could be used as there are only four satellites altogether in space listening for ACARS pings. They do not cover the relevant longitudes: they are below the horizon from most of the Indian Ocean and middle Eurasia.

The fact that that the other satellites (POR and AOR-E) did not hear the 0:11Z ping rules out some chunks of the red circle.

This leaves the two red arcs."

ana1936 - your posts have been first class. Are you satisfied with the gap between the two red arcs and that it appears that POR did not pickup the ping? Perhaps, being near the extreme range limits of POR, it can be acceptable that the ping was not received ??

Last edited by Mach2point7; 17th Mar 2014 at 02:14. Reason: Improved language
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 02:13   #4894 (permalink)
 
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Can the "pings" be used to discern azimuth o those arcs? I understand how the arcs are defined, but is it just an assumption that the plane moved "around" the arc or is there a azimuth solution?
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 02:14   #4895 (permalink)
 
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From http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/malaysia-pilot-t-shirt-fuels-talk-hijacked-flight-article-1.1723724:

"The mystery of the missing Malaysia Airlines jet deepened Sunday as a photo surfaced of its pilot wearing a T-shirt with the slogan “Democracy is Dead” and searchers set course for the Indian Ocean.

The T-shirt further fueled fears that Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah, an ardent supporter of jailed Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, hijacked Flight 370 along its path from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing in an act of anti-government protest."



So let me get this straight. Because the Captain is wearing a shirt declaring "Democracy is Dead" in protest of the overall UMNO/BN approach to government (and the obvious treatment of Ibrahim), and is a supporter of Ibrahim he is now more strongly considered to be some kind of hijacking suspect? What century are we in?

The pilot's viewpoints on politics and support of PKR are nothing special. There's quite a sizable contingent of people in MY with the same opinions and support for the opposition has been growing for years.

Secondly, Anwar Ibrahim is *not* jailed. The accuracy of modern media and "journalism" these days is just flat out appalling. It's no longer about being precise or accurate - it's completely driven by eyeballs.

Terrorists have won, haven't they? Time to burn some witches.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 02:15   #4896 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
The photo's I have seen of the Captains sim indicate to me it is little more than a toy.

I do NOT understand why someone with as much experience as this guy flying the real thing would build such a box, let alone use it! He could have used the Sim's at work, clearly he was senior enough to probably even bring friends in if he particularly wanted to.
If the information that's been made public is accurate, it appears that the flight was very carefully planned to avoid radar detection - and it's possible that some of it was done at a low altitude in the dark. Further, depending on exactly where they went, the northern arc might have mountains to dodge.

Seems like if someone was going to try something like that, they would want to practice that route until it was automatic - the same way that various emergency procedures are practiced. And I can't imagine that they would want to do it on the simulator at work.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 02:16   #4897 (permalink)
 
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Here are some acars reports, these were taken off a site that streams acars online

ACARS mode: 2 Aircraft reg: .VH-OQC Operational Coms
Message label: 87 Block id: 1 Msg. no: U58A
Flight id: QF0012
Message content:-
TO OPERATIONS
DELAY. LAST DOOR CLOSED ON SCHEDULE HOWEVER JUST AFTER DOOR CLOSURE
ECAM FOR SURV-WX RADAR AND TAWS. SPOKE WITH ENGINEER AND COMPLETED
A RESET. PUSHED BACK AT 0602
-------------------------------------[16/03/2014 06:30]

ACARS mode: S Aircraft reg: .CC-CQF System Status
Message label: H1 Block id: 0 Msg. no: C18A
Flight id: LA0801
Message content:-
#CFB.1/WRN/WN1403152001 732102506MAINTENANCE STATUS ECU3 CHAN A
-------------------------------------[16/03/2014 07:00]

ACARS mode: S Aircraft reg: .CC-CQF
Message label: H1 Block id: 1 Msg. no: C19A
Flight id: LA0801
Message content:-
#CFB.1/WRN/WN1403152001 732103006MAINTENANCE STATUS ECU3 CHAN B
-------------------------------------[16/03/2014 07:00]

ACARS mode: S Aircraft reg: .VH-OJU Inbound With PAX Details
Message label: 86 Block id: 4 Msg. no: M05A
Flight id: QF0108
Message content:-
ARI
ETAB 2125YSSY
WHLCHR 02 / MED
ASST MINORS PAX
SICK N
SI NO TO AQIS.
h M O $O
-------------------------------------[16/03/2014 07:45]

ACARS mode: 2 Aircraft reg: .VH-OJU AMDAR Weather Report - Lat,Long,Alt,Turbulence etc
Message label: H1 Block id: 5 Msg. no: D26A
Flight id: QF0108
Message content:-
#2TBKLAXYSSY
AMDAR 1521
D3330S15305E2101F340M507272041008
D3337S15251E2103F301M401281029009
D3343S15239E2104F266M308298025010
D3349S15229E2106F236M235303035009
D3354S15219E2108F208M168299034007
-------------------------------------[16/03/2014 08:08]

ACARS mode: 2 Aircraft reg: .VH-OGR Engine Report
Message label: H1 Block id: Msg. no: D004
Flight id: QF0091
Message content:-
#2UBBLD-TKO
VH-OGR QFA0091
2207 15MAR14 SYD- NOU- CL 7 VER026
LEFT ENG RIGHT ENG
======== =========
CL NO CL NO HPSOV POS
NC NO NC NO PRV POS
98 1
-------------------------------------[16/03/2014 09:11]
ACARS mode: 2 Aircraft reg: .VH-OGR
Message label: H1 Block id: Msg. no: D005
Flight id: QF0091
Message content:-
#2UB00 PRV EXIT PRESS
NC NO NC NO FAV POS
H H TEMP RANGE FLG
181 196 FATS TEMP
NC NO NC NO PRSOV POS
0 0 ISO VALV
-------------------------------------[16/03/2014 09:11]
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 02:17   #4898 (permalink)
 
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A question to Lost in Saigon,
Is there (or was there ever) an Emergency Descent Mode available on the 777 AFCS? Some of the more recent systems initiate a 90 degree turn away from the programmed heading followed by a maximum rate descent to around 10,000 feet after a cabin depressurisation is detected.
The similarity of this scenario to the latest version of MA370's possible flight plan - even to matching the SATCOM line of position - bears review.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 02:20   #4899 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ICT_SLB View Post
A question to Lost in Saigon,
Is there (or was there ever) an Emergency Descent Mode available on the 777 AFCS? Some of the more recent systems initiate a 90 degree turn away from the programmed heading followed by a maximum rate descent to around 10,000 feet after a cabin depressurisation is detected.
The similarity of this scenario to the latest version of MA370's possible flight plan - even to matching the SATCOM line of position - bears review.
None that I know of, and certainly not on the B777 fleet that I fly.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 02:23   #4900 (permalink)
 
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Thanks.

One answer …

The gap between the red arcs over south east asia can be explained because those points lie well within the coverage of the Pacific INMARSAT POR.

http://www.inmarsat.com/wp-content/u...ember-2013.jpg

The Malaysian SAR map

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BiwPWMOCYAAG3ZC.jpg:large

omits red over that area and puts dashed lines in the region under POR coverage.

Thus we assume that the expert teams are satisfied that POR would have picked up the 8:11am ping if it was in that region and that it did not.

Obviously there must be some fuzziness to the ends of the arcs and the POR region because a satellite which is very low over the horizon but still above it may not pick up a signal.

However, when you look at places on the arcs at e.g. the south coast of Vietnam then the POR satellite is at about 10 degrees apparent height and it should have heard a ping.
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