Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[Whittle]

'I'd have thought it would be far easier to seize a freighter or bizjet on the day if the goal was to drop a dirty bomb on a city or disrupt The Hague talks'

Iron Duck - yes, but what the business jet would not have is 155 Chinese hostages onboard. This is really worrying because if this 777 makes an intrusion into the airspace of a country and is recognised as a threat, the C-I-C of that country then has an even more difficult decision. That decision needs to be considered ahead of time with a decision tree in place, before any potential incident, because there sure as heck wouldn't be much time for consultations, committees, referendums, debates and the like.

[firenine]

To recap the main points from that press conference:

25 countries are now involved in the search effort, which is now focused on large tracts of land covering 11 countries, and deep stretches of sea.

It was confirmed police have searched the homes of the pilot and co-pilot - removing a flight simulator from the pilot's house - but the two men did not ask to fly together on flight MH370.

The plane did not take off with any additional fuel on board, other than what would be needed for a normal flight.

It is possible that the last satellite signal received from the plane was sent when the plane was on the ground.

Authorities do not believe there was any hazardous cargo on board.

The plane's ACARS transmission system was switched off before the plane's last communication with ground control.

Missing Malaysia Airlines plane live: Homes of Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah and co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid searched as investigators say flight MH370 was 'deliberately diverted' - Mirror Online

[TheShadow]

Too many wise?

dicksairbus asks:

Why bother going to FL450 and then back to FL295 and making a lot of unexplainable turns?

Too many whys

Think in terms of two pilots locked in their cockpit - with only a marginally visible horizon, no altimetry, no heading info, no cockpit lights, no navigability. They tried to turn back once things started to go sour - but once your systems are taken out, you need some sort of roll-out heading advisory. At that westerly turning juncture, having decided to turn back, it all became a world of hurt. No flight instruments make Jack a dull boy. That was probably as good as it would ever get for that hapless crew.

How could that happen? A nasty gremlin in the E&E (aka avionics) bay perhaps?

[Captain Charisma]

No ATC audio alarms if a transponder return goes off (disappears from the scope).
The equipment wouldn't know if was an aircraft transponder failure or a ground receiver/processor issue. Transponder returns are sometimes lost for short periods of time, more so in a single radar head environment than in a multi head situation.

[The Bullwinkle]

Now that attention is focusing on the pilot & his politics it is noteworthy that on his Twitter account 13 of the 14 people/organisations he follows are related to opposition politics.

Seriously, if preferring the opposition over the government makes you a "Political Fanatic", then 99% of Australian Pilots were virtually terrorists prior to the last Federal election!

Unbelievable!

[uncle_maxwell]

satellite pics of a/c in flight?

It may have been answered before, but can satellite pictures usually show aircraft in (cruise) flight? Just wondering if they are recognisable as aircraft or even aircraft types.

Seems like many a satellite from various governmental and commercial operations routinely take pictures of Mother Earth, some of them quite frequently. Lots of data to get and go through, but it might provide a few more locations at different points in time during the later stages of the flight.

[Hornbill88]

This is an enthralling string of posts and thanks to everyone - pilots and other experts such as security folk, satellite engineers, etc - for their insightful comments. (Well, nearly everyone - no thanks to the fruitcakes - but hey it is full moon today). Fascination is tempered only by the horror of what the passengers and crew must have been through, and what their families are going through now.

I find the apparent zig zags after the Pulau Perak radar sighting (at VAMPI, GIVAL and IGREX) particularly perplexing. At #4347 Porterhouse wrote "There are VERIFIED heading changes, at least 4." I think this might have come from a Reuters article but don't recall reading it. Can someone please remind me who verified this?

[4468]

Very difficult to keep up with all the posts in this fast moving thread, however Andu has said something with which I can concur.

it's as big a paradigm shift as Sept 11th 2001 was.

Maybe not quite as large a shift, but were there to be a second 'hijack' like this, the industry could descend into meltdown once again!

Kneejerk reactions by law makers to this incident are pretty much a given.

[Above The Clouds]

@ Uncle Maxwell

They could reposition satellites and of course the use of long range drones to search areas for wreckage.

[AEROMEDIC]

Maybe something as simple as dropping coffee over the centre consol caused system failure and worse. Will we ever know the truth?

This is why drip shields are fitted over electronic compartment areas to protect things that are vital to the operation of the aircraft.

[Andu]

Seriously, if preferring the opposition over the government makes you a "Political Fanatic", then 99% of Australian Pilots were virtually terrorists prior to the last Federal election!

My thoughts exactly, Bullwinkle.

That thinking has been repeated here again aind again but after a biref reality check it doesn't hold water.
which terrorists got which publicity that would support their cause?

Henrea, a long way back in this thread, I made the point (quite possibly deleted by the mods) that the terrorists' aim is to make the war they are waging against the West so expensive for the West to wage that it becomes unsustainable - much the same as Ronald Reagan did to win the Cold War against the Soviets.

If this does prove to be a terrorist attack, so long as the airframe remains not found, who ever did it doesn't need to announce they did it. They're winning, for they're causing their enemies - that's us - to be spending huge amounts of money trying (stress trying) to counter them.

And guess who'll end up paying for all those enormous costs in searching for this aircraft? You and me, the travelling public. And not just in money, but in added frustration and delay as we endure yet heavier and more intrusive security procedures.

I think the line being taken that it was pilot suicide is self-serving bullsh1t by the authorities. It's so obviously an easy 'out' for the airlines/governments - blame the pilot rather than face the fact that if this is a terrorist attack, it's as big a paradigm shift as Sept 11th 2001 was. It's also stupid - for passengers are going to be suspicious of their pilots, (if they're not already), to the point where we're going to have an incident where some crazy passenger intervenes and interferes, stopping pilots from doing what the passenger believes is dangerous or unusual.

I've had to 'walk the walk' to the crew rest area any number of times (in my airline, on the 777 - crazy as it will seem to many reading this - that involves walking all the way to the very rear of the economy cabin).

I can see some poor sod in the future having to get back to the cockpit in a hurry because of some technical problem and being tackled by some vigilante passenger in mid cabin "because he is obviously up to no good".

[fortuneferal]

Captain Shah has been with the airline since 1981 and flown 18,365 hours. Allowing for 4 weeks leave a year, he has flown only 12 hours per week! No wonder he has a sim at home...

[Jumpjim]

As a 772 driver I still find it unbelievable that we have the ability to turn off the transponder in flight. I was firmly of the opinion that this option would be removed post 9/11 after it became apparent how difficult it is for ATC to track aircraft without a working transponder.

I can think of no reason you would EVER want to turn off the transponder once in flight, and I think that we will find this option is rapidly removed from the flight deck..

[CodyBlade]

So many agencies involved now,I get the feeling they have rough idea where the T7 is.

But if you trying to catch a car thief you won't broadcast to world you know where they are and coming for them.

Hence the Southern corridor.

[Sober Lark]

At this stage forensic psychology, forensic examination and computer evidence recovery with careful evaluation of shadow data on hard drive will either help locate the aircraft of clear the pilots of any wrongdoing.

[Golf-Mike-Mike]

Originally Posted by uncle_maxwell

... can satellite pictures usually show aircraft in (cruise) flight? Just wondering if they are recognisable as aircraft or even aircraft types.

And the answer is Yes. The early satellite photos from Google of SE UK had shadowy images of 747s on final approach to Heathrow but of course the right satellites / cameras have to be pointing at the right place at the right moment in time.

[rog747]

they will never stop looking

Finding this aircraft is going to be a monumental task, possibly historically the hardest ever -
i reckon as per AF447 and the SAA 747 Helderberg crashes in the sea they will never stop looking though -

this incident will no doubt change how we travel once again

seems like any extra fuel uploaded at KUL is not now being mooted at Sundays Press conference -
the 2 pilots did not ask to fly together - someone mentioned the ACARS was switched off BEFORE the last slightly odd radio R/T -
if so wow that's a revelation

plus it seems many Western and other countries are VERY jittery this 777 is on the ground somewhere - they keep harping on about it -
The Malaysians and the Yanks know much more than they are giving off and they are pooping their pants?

[p.j.m]

Originally Posted by Jumpjim

As a 772 driver I still find it unbelievable that we have the ability to turn off the transponder in flight. I was firmly of the opinion that this option would be removed post 9/11 after it became apparent how difficult it is for ATC to track aircraft without a working transponder.

have you already forgotten about the B787 ELT fire?

[SaturnV]

Hornbill88, it was a Reuters article.

I assumed that the last radar contact at Pulau Perak island (near VAMPI) included a heading to the next waypoint to the north. Whether there was a ping that suggests the plane was headed into the Andaman Sea has not been released publicly, but I suspect there is a ping indicating a N or NW track after VAMPI.

[aerobat77]

i must say i finally do not believe all the fancy rumours.

i think they had somekind of an initially undetected smoldering fire in the electronic bay which disabled one system after another - starting with acars. after system failures began they decided to turn back to malaysia , using the heading mode .

just in the turn the fire melted through the structure resulting in a rapid decompression. the crew oxygen bottles, stored in the electronic bay, failed and the pilots were out of order. the decompression by itself also put off this fire.

the autopilot continued to work and stucked in the turn on a heading towards indian ocean where the plane continued until fuel exhaustion and then crashed.

any news on altitude changes etc are just false rumour from the malysian side.

it maybe that "simple".