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Old 16th Mar 2014, 07:36   #4361 (permalink)
 
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Occam

Quote:
His ‘razor’ principle, which is in widespread use today in arriving at solutions to scientific quandaries, involves 'paring away’ (with the razor) the least significant information to leave a core of significant facts with which to arrive at the most likely explanation. This will not always be the correct answer, but on the balance of probability it will in more cases than not.
That isn't how I usually see it used. Occam's razor is about shaving away "hypthoseses" not "facts". As wikipedia puts it

Quote:
It states that among competing hypotheses, the hypothesis with the fewest assumptions should be selected.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 07:37   #4362 (permalink)
 
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OldPilot55 said

Quote:
When I was a spotter and listened to VHF radio from my home in Glasgow, elevation 100' or so I could see contrails over Belfast, a distance of approx 100 nautical miles. The trails were very low to the horizon (<10°) but very definitely over Belfast since there was no traffic over Prestwick. This was late daylight, winter, high pressure so cloudless and highlighted by a low sun.
So my point is the Kiwi oil worker could have seen at night a bright light or fire over a considerable distance, as he described. Whether that was the missing 777 remains to be seen.
He was 370 miles away

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Old 16th Mar 2014, 07:37   #4363 (permalink)

 
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You'd be surprised...

JugofPropwash said: (apropos Shadow post 16th Mar 2014 05:25 "The Elephant outside the Room")
Quote:
You really believe that in this post 9-11 world, 200+ passengers are going to calmly sit there and allow a couple hijacker/terrorists access to the area, especially when there's a FA standing there screaming "Stop them!"???
What if it was a single MAS Engineer with credentials? There was one aboard. I believe the hatch in the fwd galley area isn't visibly apparent to pax. Can't imagine an F/A not being duped in this scenario (but may well check with the flight-deck after consulting the chief purser). The hatch has been plotted by then. Terrorists can look just like any other pax until they declare their hand.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 07:38   #4364 (permalink)
 
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Agreed Rif Raf... Parallax Error perhaps?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 07:41   #4365 (permalink)
 
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A scathing review of the MH 370 search situation from the New York Times wire:

Quote:
Series of errors by Malaysia mounts, complicating the task of finding flight MH370

Michael Forsythe & KEITH BRADSHER,NYT News Service | Mar 16, 2014, 11.12 AM IST

SEPANG(Malaysia): The radar blip that was Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 did a wide U-turn over the Gulf of Thailand and then began moving inexorably past at least three military radar arrays as it traversed northern Malaysia, even flying high over one of the country's biggest cities before heading out over the Strait of Malacca.

Yet inside a Malaysian Air Force control room on the country's west coast, where American-made F-18s and F-5 fighters stood at a high level of readiness for emergencies exactly like the one unfolding in the early morning of March 8, a four-person air defense radar crew did nothing about the unauthorized flight. "The watch team never noticed the blip," said a person with detailed knowledge of the investigation into Flight 370. "It was as though the airspace was his."

It was not the first and certainly not the last in a long series of errors by the Malaysian government that has made the geographically vast and technologically complex task of finding the $50 million Malaysia Airlines jet far more difficult.

A week after the plane disappeared, the trail is even colder as the search now sprawls from the snowy peaks of the Himalayas to the empty expanses of the southern Indian Ocean. Nobody knows yet whether the delays cost the lives of any of the 239 people who boarded the flight to Beijing at Kuala Lumpur's ultramodern airport here. But the mistakes have accumulated at a remarkable pace...
Series of errors by Malaysia mounts, complicating the task of finding flight MH370 - The Times of India

It seems that the earlier speculation here about the 'A' team being off duty on the weekend at the military radar sites was on target.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 07:45   #4366 (permalink)
 
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jugofpropwash: "You really believe that in this post 9-11 world, 200+ passengers are going to calmly sit there and allow a couple hijacker/terrorists access to the area, especially when there's a FA standing there screaming "Stop them!"??? "


A mechanic could have been riding along, troubleshooting something in the E&E bay. Some airlines allow this. It can make the passengers nervous, but as long as he has on airline coveralls, they wouldn't be very alarmed. Maybe such a mechanic was "in on it", or maybe his screwdriver slipped, frying some of the electronics, starting a series of events that led to the disappearance of the 777.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 07:56   #4367 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
A mechanic could have been riding along, troubleshooting something in the E&E bay. Some airlines allow this. It can make the passengers nervous, but as long as he has on airline coveralls, they wouldn't be very alarmed.
Would you say that would be a 'usual' practice? In my experience I've had engineers 'ride along' only twice in more than 6 years- once was an overwater sector and an insurer requirement to prevent unsched overnight in an unfavorable port... the other was an empty ferry sector.

Damn straight if someone came up to me saying they wanted in to the E&E bay during flight I'd be calling the captain first.

If they forced their way in I'd be doing a lot more than standing there to watch!

Sadly I'd guess this points to the CC being unable, or as has been put forward, 'someone' in the airline telling them that it was kosher... don't think that is as likely as the first one though...
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 07:57   #4368 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
You will not be getting any report on the aircraft fuel plan or fuel uplift. Even if it were provided it wouldn’t make any difference. The fuel loaded for the route in question will be standard for the time of year taking into consideration a multitude of factors. The Captain may elect to stick on a few extra tonnes and if he did so that would be quite normal and acceptable in all the circumstances.
G-ARVH, you don't have to lecture me on the ins and outs of fuel planning. I'm well aware of how it works and also a regular operating into Beijing. The point of my question was that if there was a significant difference from the plan without weather considerations, or from the Capt's normal extra fuel carriage, then that would be significant.

It's a very obvious question to an experienced operator but it hasn't been addressed in public. Someone's flight plan was different to MAS, whose plan was it?

Last edited by knackeredII; 16th Mar 2014 at 07:59. Reason: Insert quote
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 07:57   #4369 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Makay the oil rig observer, remember him.

Went to a lot of trouble to get his message out more than once, he gave a detailed observation, he is trained in the use of life rafts and signalling equipment, he knows what a flare looks like.

He saw something significant falling from the sky. His observation was not in any search area at the time, any possible debris field is moving away from the search areas.

I can't imagine what he will be feeling when his tour is over and he gets back to the mainland to discover the world thinks, "he couldn't have or he made the whole thing up"
But American administration was categorical in denying that their satellite picked-up anything.

However, why was MacKay's email dismissed so quickly is a point.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 08:01   #4370 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
A mechanic could have been riding along, troubleshooting something in the E&E bay. Some airlines allow this. It can make the passengers nervous, but as long as he has on airline coveralls, they wouldn't be very alarmed.
I saw a report that there was a MH engineer on the flight.

CNN interview his father at KLIA.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 08:02   #4371 (permalink)
 
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wow... Just stumbled upon something that I had completely missed until now

Quote:
"We informed Malaysia on the day we lost contact with the flight that we noticed the flight turned back west but Malaysia did not respond,"
That is Vietnam’s deputy minister of transport, Pham Quy Tieu, and the quote was reported at least 4 days ago

(as can be seen here Vietnam suspends air search for missing Malaysian jet | NDTV.com )

So that means
A) Vietnam has the plane on radar turning around, and tried to tell Malaysia that day
B) Malaysia knew they had it on their radar at 2:40 in the Straights anyway

...yet still they let 14 countries waste 8 days in the Gulf looking for a plane that wasn't ever there.

Unbelievable
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 08:03   #4372 (permalink)
 
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It might well be that the reason nobody was watching the Military radar that night is because nobody was assigned to watch the scope, the operator(s) may have been on standby in case they were needed. I will add another voice to a couple of previous posts - many people have an exaggerated view of military capabilities / readiness. This was on a sleepy Malaysian night shift in peacetime conditions, not West Germany at the height of the cold war or on any cocaine smuggling route. There may be valid reasons to criticize the Malaysian government but this is not one of them.

Another point I would like to mention is that the reason that the ACARS was turned off and the aircraft "soared" to a higher altitude appears to some of us (it has been alluded to here but I may be the first to come out and state it bluntly) as if the man at the controls wanted to prevent data transmission of the fact that that the cabin pressure had been vented to ambient outside air pressure. The increased altitude appears to have been to insure the least amount of resistance for the shortest time from the people in the back of the plane.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 08:05   #4373 (permalink)
 
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Southern Corridor

As per my last post PM Tony Abbott has just announced that 2 x AP3C's will be sent to search on the 40 deg line the Indian Ocean.

Given the B777 range ring on the 40 deg line I imagine that the P3 will be limited in its search time at the extremities of the range ring. Any P3 drivers able to comment. I would suggest an aircraft carrier is going to be the only option unless there can be some descent sat coverage.

If you want to make sure no one finds you this is the place.

Anyway good luck to no 10 / 11 SQDN's
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 08:05   #4374 (permalink)
 
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Neogen said

Quote:
However, why was MacKay's email dismissed so quickly is a point.
again, 370 miles away

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Old 16th Mar 2014, 08:09   #4375 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G-ARVH View Post
You will not be getting any report on the aircraft fuel plan or fuel uplift. Even if it were provided it wouldn’t make any difference. The fuel loaded for the route in question will be standard for the time of year taking into consideration a multitude of factors. The Captain may elect to stick on a few extra tonnes and if he did so that would be quite normal and acceptable in all the circumstances.
How did you come to that conclusion? How do you know it was standard? The captain may have requested more than standard and if he did, then you'd have to ask why. That's the whole point of people here wanting to know what the fuel load was for the flight.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 08:11   #4376 (permalink)
 
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So far, pretty much all political/terror related scenarios end with: "But why has no-one come forward to claim responsibility?"

If there was foul play, why couldn't that have been the *intention*, i.e. making this event be a paradigm shift, just as Sept 11 was?

Prior to Sept 11, hijacks ended with landing & making demands. Which is what the Sept 11 hijackers indeed broadcast to the passengers and to ATC.* But they changed the paradigm, as we know, and those statements were active misinformation.

Why change the paradigm again? To sow the maximum amount of fear and uncertainty into commercial transportation -- make a modern first world jet appear to disappear into thin air, with no ability to find it. (Because whatever happened to it has happened somewhere *well away* from its last known position.) A crash is unsettling, but can be dealt with. A simple disappearance with nothing more -- no debris, no recorded crash, no demands, with everyone looking 1,000s of NM away -- would inflict maximum uncertainty. It already has inflicted a lot, but imagine how much more there would be if the pinging wasn't there, and especially if the pilot had evaded Malaysian radar?

That could be the aim itself. So a lack of any claim of responsibility may no longer be a pointer against foul play.

Remember, bin Laden's strike was symbolically at the three limbs of the USA - economic (4 planes + 2 towers); military (Pentagon); and political (intended target of UA93 was likely the Capitol). This could be a strike at one, the easiest to get to (economic).



* United 93, which had the only CVR to survive, recorded the pax being told "Here's the captain. I would like to tell you all to remain seated. We have a bomb aboard, and we are going back to the airport, and we have our demands. So, please remain quiet." On AA 11, Atta told ATC "We have some planes. Just stay quiet, and you'll be O.K. We are returning to the airport."
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 08:11   #4377 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Given the B777 range ring on the 40 deg line I imagine that the P3 will be limited in its search time at the extremities of the range ring. Any P3 drivers able to comment. I would suggest an aircraft carrier is going to be the only option unless there can be some descent sat coverage.
Staging out of Cocos Islands should give them good endurance?

http://goo.gl/maps/4cDSX
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 08:14   #4378 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EXEK1996 View Post
As per my last post PM Tony Abbott has just announced that 2 x AP3C's will be sent to search on the 40 deg line the Indian Ocean.
I hope the SAR have more information than just 40° line. That was only the last ping, what were the previous pings and the heading.

If the aircraft was down south, it likely made it much further west than the 40° line, and that should only be the starting point.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 08:15   #4379 (permalink)
 
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all data points aligned ?

Shadoko answered:

Quote:
And then fly evading detection until sunrise: it will be along the south arc of the last ping, after flying for the last time. Retaliation after is friend jailed for 5 years?

Journey to the End of the Night - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

To my post:

Quote:
One of the last ACARS Messages transmitted by AF447 concerned cabin pressure, IIRC external altitude becoming lower than cabin altitude.

It makes me sick thinking about it:

- Turn off ACARS
- Then depressurize
- Wait 12 minutes until cabin emergency O2 is used up
- Turn off transponder
- Zoom climb to what is possible, on topping out there will be less than 1g so it can be somewhat higher than what is in the spec
- now return, over land no cell phone calls will be made
To the psychological aspect:

- Maybe the initial plan was to hit the petronas towers.
- The above maneuvre is physicaly extremly challenging. Going "semi-ballistic" in a depressurized cabin on o2 only.
- After recovery you might see things differently and refrain from original plan=> erratic flightpath.

- You are now in a psychological challenging environment with harm done to every soul on board.
- There is no way to fix this situation, but you don't want to cause any more harm any longer.

- Program FMS to go above the Malaca Strait into the Indian Ocean an then set a last waypoint, the obvious one would be 90 degrees south.
- Now depressurize again, don't put your o2 mask and doze away.

The aircraft or what remains of it would be found south of where longitude ~95°E intersects with the southern branch of the "ping arc".
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 08:17   #4380 (permalink)
 
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Indian city a target?


https://twitter.com/strobetalbott/st...90319323406337
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