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Old 16th Mar 2014, 05:33   #4361 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: North of Antartica
Posts: 169
It's a full moon....No surprise there!

I'm staggered by the amazing arrogance of the numerous posters who think I, and no doubt the vast majority of subscribers to this forum actually give a flying hoot as to what they think, guess or insist to be the definitive truth about this ongoing story. As a pilot I keep checking back to this site to see if any fellow industry professionals have gleaned any further insight into the event. I wish there was a way for me to block posts from particular regular offenders who constantly pipe up and spout their ill informed and occasionally delusional opinion.
News yes please
Rumour Lets hear it!
Your opinion....save it for the cat, shout it at the telly or drone on to the long suffering wife, but don't write screeds of it.

I DO NOT CARE
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 05:34   #4362 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
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I've seen no report or questions re the initial fuel load. Although it may be common to carry more than planned fuel, it would give some idea of intentions if it was significantly different from plan or from the crews normal practice.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 05:49   #4363 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Brisvegas
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Quote:
I've seen no report or questions re the initial fuel load. Although it may be common to carry more than planned fuel, it would give some idea of intentions if it was significantly different from plan or from the crews normal practice.
Yes it would.

As a SAR worker in a previous role I will bet my house that the PEOPLE RUNNING this SAR operation knew the fuel load on day one. It is fundamental to any SAR operation, fuel exhaustion time.

Just because the DCA, military and PM who front the press conference don't mention it ad nauseum in no way infers that they do not know. In fact I would also bet my house that the SAR operations staff know a great deal more than has been released.

Why? Why do they not share it? Because there is a very high probability that this will become a crime investigation. Even a non malevolent incident would require a police investigation due to deaths, if that occured. Therefore it is not a good idea to release into the public arena information that builds a case or otherwise.

There seems to be an attitude on here that THEY should tell US EVERTHING they know. Sorry it will not happen. This seems to be worse from those who do not work in the industry.

So, do not expect all information to be released NOW. What looks like contradiction and prevarication at the press conferences is all related to this.

All will be revealed, in the meantime find something else to do.

One last question...If a Surgeons Rumour Network existed on the web and a well known surgeon killed three people in a week would you guys all feel entitled to get on there and discuss surgery and hospital procedures? If no, then why is it okay to come on to a PILOTS rumour network and give us all your OPINIONS based on NO EXPERIENCE or KNOWLEDGE of what actually happens on a jet in front of the cockpit door?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 05:50   #4364 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: ADL
Posts: 34
Southern direction

On all probabilities its in the southern Indian Ocean. Suicide / hijack whatever but a deliberate act by someone or someones. Engines running at 7hrs is not a good sign given fuel exhaustion would have been minutes away.

The RAAF are deploying for a search along the 40 deg line area. Maybe a P3 will get lucky as I believe JORN was not operating. I assume that the depths will be too great for a CVR/FDR recovery assuming any wreckage is ever located to pinpoint them.

Will go down as a great aviation mystery. I wish it were in the Stan's but if it was it would no longer be a secret.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 05:50   #4365 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
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To the ppl here that want news and info..............thats the problem guys...There is little known to authorities what happened to this aircraft. When there such a lack of info and such high interest related to the matter, the result is a high amount of assumptions and opinions of "what it might have happened".
Investigators are using the same method. Based on the little they have.....they have to assume and try eliminate possibilities one by one.
Unfortunately, this is the sitution and until more is revealed assumptions and opinions are still gonna come. As long these assumptions are pertinent and the opinions are informed I dont see the problem.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 05:57   #4366 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Singapore
Posts: 9
Narrowing the range of possibilities

I am a Scientist in an industry other than aviation & was about to apply William of Okham’s principle (‘Okham’s Razor’) to the detective process but RifRaf3 beat me to it. Judging from some subsequent posts there is clearly some misunderstanding as to how it should be applied.
Basically W of O was a 13th century logician, mathematician and philosopher way ahead of his time. His ‘razor’ principle, which is in widespread use today in arriving at solutions to scientific quandaries, involves 'paring away’ (with the razor) the least significant information to leave a core of significant facts with which to arrive at the most likely explanation. This will not always be the correct answer, but on the balance of probability it will in more cases than not.
So in this case, we have some knowns (definite facts); some potential information that could have basis (‘from Government sources wishing to remain anonymous’) ; some wild speculation and some outright conspiracy theories.
In the significant category, other than the aircraft has disappeared and is now missing, he would have included the time interval between switching off different communications systems and the apparent navigation between waypoints towards the west that were not on the original flight plan, so Okham would have said that someone is apparently still in charge of the plane and flying it, making ditching or crashing in the South China Sea highly improbable & to be eliminated. Other facts that Okham might have kept in there, but down the list are the fact that this happened at night, with an ER variant of the aircraft (so potentially long range); take off from a Muslim country; and access to a wide expanse of the Indian Ocean with only a narrow peninsula to cross and outrun military radar.
Being way ahead of his time, Okham also knows that, (contrary to some earlier posts) oil slicks can easily be detected by satellite (I use this technology) and that the wreckage has not yet been found, despite the technology being available to many countries and that there is therefore a significant possibility that this aircraft is now on the ground. Okham would also have concluded that this was meticulously planned, way ahead of time, pushing suicide down the list of possibilities.
There we must leave Okham and add some conclusions of our own. An obvious motive might be ransom money, but no one has yet asked for any. The significant possibility that this aircraft was taken for a more sinister motive must now surely now be very high on the list. If so, whatever may be being planned is unlikely to be years or even months away, because the likelihood of the location of the aircraft being found/revealed by informers etc will increase rapidly with time. It is unlikely that someone would steal an aircraft (if that is what has happened) and then start thinking of things that they could do with it. Although this is only a possibility, one would hope that governments of susceptible countries are quietly organising the putting in place or checking of instruments of maximum vigilance to quickly & effectively respond to any threat. Skytrax is right – find the plane.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 05:59   #4367 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: LIS
Posts: 23
To all those who keep asking about cargo, who speculate on how much gold could have been carried, estimating it to 4300kg because of the 50 empty seats, etc.

- Full flights are rare!, and actually loadfactor wasn't that bad...

- Does any of you have access to the actual loadsheet, to confirm the aircraft was either limited to ZFW, TOW or LDW, and what was the actual underload? Don't think so, information must be protected, right now, anyway...

- Standby passengers (staff) are usually the last passengers accepted on any flight, their late acceptance, until proved otherwise, can be related to a long list of reasons other than weight limitations.

So HOW can any of you get any speculative figures regarding cargo, weight limitations due to huge cargo loads, or anything? I've read every single post that is currently present in this thread, as well as many more who got erased (including one that was mine), and I haven't seen any ACTUAL DATA on those matters! Particularly on a matter that keeps being discussed, again, again and again every 5-6 pages.

So, for those who don't know anything about weights, and in order to stop speculation without any single proof, let's do some calculations. I'm no expert on the 777-200ER (more of an Airbus guy), but, well, basic weight calculations are the same whatever aircraft you work on. Thru Google, I found DOW/MZFW/MTOW/MLDW for another operator's 777-200ER, and differences shouldn't be more than 2-3 tons, depending on the equipment and cabin fitting.

Let's assume a Dry Operating Weight of 150'500kg
A Maximum Zero Fuel Weight of 195'044kg
A Maximum Take-Off Weight of 264'897kg (there's a second variant just short of 300 tons, but let's do it with the short MTOW, here, since it's not that important as we'll see later)
A Maximum Landing Weight of 208'652kg
227 passengers, including 5 children (don't remember the exact figure, sorry)

Someone, maybe 1000 posts ago, said departure fuel should be around 50'000kg for this flight duration. Let's assume landing fuel should be at least 10'000kg, which makes a trip fuel of 40'000kg.

ZFW = DOW+222 passengers at 76kg (IATA adult standard weight)+5 children at 35kg (IATA standard as well)+30kg luggage per passenger (quite high, but, well, not that important = 150'500+16'872+175+6810 = 174'355kg vs. 195'044kg = 20'689kg underload

TOW = ZFW + Take-Off Fuel = 224'355kg vs. 264'897kg = 40542kg underload

LDW = TOW - Trip fuel = 184'355kg vs. 208'652kg = 24'297kg underload

Of course, the lowest underload is our actual true limitation, which means we have, available for cargo and according to our calculations, over 20.5 tons. Maybe some 777 jockeys would like to tell us how usual it is to carry that much cargo (again, never worked on the 777-200ER), but seems quite a heavy load IF weight was an issue on MH370.

And for purists, I know, not the right sequence of calculations, but this post isn't to train people on preparing loadsheets, it's just to provide some numbers to try and calm down speculation on cargo when no data at all is available.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 06:00   #4368 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Sep 1998
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Makay the oil rig observer, remember him.

Went to a lot of trouble to get his message out more than once, he gave a detailed observation, he is trained in the use of life rafts and signalling equipment, he knows what a flare looks like.

He saw something significant falling from the sky. His observation was not in any search area at the time, any possible debris field is moving away from the search areas.

I can't imagine what he will be feeling when his tour is over and he gets back to the mainland to discover the world thinks, "he couldn't have or he made the whole thing up"
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 06:04   #4369 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Connecticut, USA
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Quote:
The turn shortly before the transponders were powered down may have been the result of an FA's advice to the cockpit that men had descended into the E&E bay. The pilots, noting a loss of comms, may have decided that their only option was to turn back and await further developments. Navigation and flight control could've then become increasingly difficult as systems were rendered inert.
You really believe that in this post 9-11 world, 200+ passengers are going to calmly sit there and allow a couple hijacker/terrorists access to the area, especially when there's a FA standing there screaming "Stop them!"???
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 06:05   #4370 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: UK
Age: 55
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Quote:
I've seen no report or questions re the initial fuel load. Although it may be common to carry more than planned fuel, it would give some idea of intentions if it was significantly different from plan or from the crews normal practice
You will not be getting any report on the aircraft fuel plan or fuel uplift. Even if it were provided it wouldn’t make any difference. The fuel loaded for the route in question will be standard for the time of year taking into consideration a multitude of factors. The Captain may elect to stick on a few extra tonnes and if he did so that would be quite normal and acceptable in all the circumstances.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 06:15   #4371 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincolnshire
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Visual sighting of aircraft over long distances

When I was a spotter and listened to VHF radio from my home in Glasgow, elevation 100' or so I could see contrails over Belfast, a distance of approx 100 nautical miles. The trails were very low to the horizon (<10°) but very definitely over Belfast since there was no traffic over Prestwick. This was late daylight, winter, high pressure so cloudless and highlighted by a low sun.
So my point is the Kiwi oil worker could have seen at night a bright light or fire over a considerable distance, as he described. Whether that was the missing 777 remains to be seen.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 06:17   #4372 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Australia
Posts: 31
Agreed and repeated, yet again - the report on fuel will not be forthcoming for a variety of reasons. However, if it did and the fuel load was above what was reasonable for the w/x, then it would add some weight to possible intentionals. Just another potential clue, not proof.

Lawyers are now involved, as is big money and this frames many decisions. Some of the logic needs to be viewed from their position and not Mr Ockham's.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 06:22   #4373 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Somewhere over the Rainbow
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Indian media reporting Malaysian govt have asked them to suspend search in bay of bengal and andamans.

Looks like a southern track now
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 06:25   #4374 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
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Age: 36
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Xeptu says

Quote:
Makay the oil rig observer, remember him.

Went to a lot of trouble to get his message out more than once, he gave a detailed observation, he is trained in the use of life rafts and signalling equipment, he knows what a flare looks like.

He saw something significant falling from the sky. His observation was not in any search area at the time, any possible debris field is moving away from the search areas.

I can't imagine what he will be feeling when his tour is over and he gets back to the mainland to discover the world thinks, "he couldn't have or he made the whole thing up"
Makay mapped out his GPS location for us

(as seen here Oil rig worker saw Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 go down: report - National | Globalnews.ca )



Go ahead, you remind us how it is possible he saw the crash from his location - but remember, physics still exist in this, the real world, despite their inconvenience for you in this calculation

Makay likely did see something. What that was, who the heck knows - it sure as heck wasnt the plane though. That we know because A) Physics B) the plane went the other way anyway(!!!)

...so my question to you becomes, despite it being physically impossible for him to see the plane, are we to just make believe the plane is there as to not hurt his feelings when he returns from the rig?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 06:26   #4375 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wannabe Flyer View Post
Indian media reporting Malaysian govt have asked them to suspend search in bay of bengal and andamans.

Looks like a southern track now
Why? Have they stopped looking in Pakistan & Afghanistan?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 06:33   #4376 (permalink)
 
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Location: ɐıןɐɹʇsn∀
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I will say that in my 20 years in this industry that this is the strangest incident I think I've come across 8 days after the fact. One can only wonder that if the correct IFER/SAR procedures had been followed from the outset that this whole episode may have been in a totally different place right now. It just goes to prove that despite ICAO 'recommendations' you still need to be careful operating in 3rd world FIRs..
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 06:34   #4377 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Australia
Posts: 31
A bit unfair. He's done a good report as best he can. It's just that lots of phenomena occur at night over the sea that are not easily explain. A common one is the bright lights from squid boats that reflect off clouds or are refracted by inversions. Space debris is falling frequently also. Oil fires are often briefly refracted. You see this over the middle East with the right cloud conditions.
We cannot entirely rule his observation out; it's just improbably MH370.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 06:36   #4378 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Adelaide
Posts: 50
Occam

Quote:
His ‘razor’ principle, which is in widespread use today in arriving at solutions to scientific quandaries, involves 'paring away’ (with the razor) the least significant information to leave a core of significant facts with which to arrive at the most likely explanation. This will not always be the correct answer, but on the balance of probability it will in more cases than not.
That isn't how I usually see it used. Occam's razor is about shaving away "hypthoseses" not "facts". As wikipedia puts it

Quote:
It states that among competing hypotheses, the hypothesis with the fewest assumptions should be selected.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 06:37   #4379 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: USA
Age: 36
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OldPilot55 said

Quote:
When I was a spotter and listened to VHF radio from my home in Glasgow, elevation 100' or so I could see contrails over Belfast, a distance of approx 100 nautical miles. The trails were very low to the horizon (<10°) but very definitely over Belfast since there was no traffic over Prestwick. This was late daylight, winter, high pressure so cloudless and highlighted by a low sun.
So my point is the Kiwi oil worker could have seen at night a bright light or fire over a considerable distance, as he described. Whether that was the missing 777 remains to be seen.
He was 370 miles away

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Old 16th Mar 2014, 06:37   #4380 (permalink)

 
Join Date: Sep 2000
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You'd be surprised...

JugofPropwash said: (apropos Shadow post 16th Mar 2014 05:25 "The Elephant outside the Room")
Quote:
You really believe that in this post 9-11 world, 200+ passengers are going to calmly sit there and allow a couple hijacker/terrorists access to the area, especially when there's a FA standing there screaming "Stop them!"???
What if it was a single MAS Engineer with credentials? There was one aboard. I believe the hatch in the fwd galley area isn't visibly apparent to pax. Can't imagine an F/A not being duped in this scenario (but may well check with the flight-deck after consulting the chief purser). The hatch has been plotted by then. Terrorists can look just like any other pax until they declare their hand.
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