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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:23   #4221 (permalink)
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Interesting theory Slats. Yes, why turn the ACARS off first? It would transmit maintenance messages regarding depressurisation.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:23   #4222 (permalink)
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That's how the USN found the sub Scorpion in the late '60s. Admittedly, the group used were experts in various fields pertinent to sub construction and operations. See Blind Man's Bluff book.

The total tonnage of bizarre and uninformed ideas expressed by members who have fewer than 10 posts and join dates later than Feb 2014 is mind boggling and rather a waste of PPRuNe's bandwidth. OTOH, posts by experts in arcane fields of SATCOM, Electronics and cellphones is much needed and always welcome when these things happen.

FYI for the newcomers: you can't jettison cargo in civil planes; transponders, like many others pieces of kit, have OFF switches for good reasons, the US MIL is not as all-seeing and all-knowing as you'd like and hate.; militaries of the world can't intercept unknown "targets" as they mostly are 8-midnight operations, at best. The US Mil were caught on 9/11 and so would most others militaries. The Russians had their Mathias Rust, remember.

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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:24   #4223 (permalink)
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Sheep Guts says

They must continue searching the South China Sea they don't have enough evidence to not stop.
What evidence is there of it being there?

The absolutely only thing that says it is possibly at the location of its last call is that it was once at that location - that is it, absolutely nothing else indicates it is there.

The evidence that it isn't there is extreme though - including the fact that they have had 14 countries with Ships, Planes and Satellites searching this very tiny and unbelievably shallow area for 8 days without finding even a single seat cushion.

That alone should scream "uhm, it probably isn't here guys" without even having to go into all the physical and witness reports indicating it turned West.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:28   #4224 (permalink)
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Someone said that they would move 4.5 t of gold in a 7.5 t truck.

The max load of a 7.5t truck is 3t.
I seriously doubt that anyone who has just stolen 120 million worth of gold would worry about weight restrictions.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:31   #4225 (permalink)
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ACARS down before transponder

One of the last ACARS Messages transmitted by AF447 concerned cabin pressure, IIRC external altitude becoming lower than cabin altitude.

It makes me sick thinking about it:

- Turn off ACARS
- Then depressurize
- Wait 12 minutes until cabin emergency O2 is used up
- Turn off transponder
- Zoom climb to what is possible, on topping out there will be less than 1g so it can be somewhat higher than what is in the spec
- now return, over land no cell phone calls will be made
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:32   #4226 (permalink)
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Slats and Captain Kremen -
Yes, re ACARS, that is what MSM has been reporting.

Data transmission system on MH370 deliberately disabled - tech - 15 March 2014 - New Scientist

On 11 March it emerged that the Boeing 777's diagnostic maintenance data messaging system, the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), had sent two bursts of data at both take off and during the plane's climb to cruise altitude. While this was the first sign that investigators had at least some forensic flight data to go on, no further ACARS reports were transmitted.

Now the investigation team thinks they know why.
"Based on new satellite information, we can say with a high degree of certainty that ACARS was disabled just before the aircraft reached the East coast of peninsular Malaysia. Shortly afterwards, near the border between Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control, the aircraft's transponder was switched off," Razak says.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:32   #4227 (permalink)
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Battery fire, taking out essential busses first, crew incapacitated by insidious fumes and confusion (thousands of hours and nothing has ever gone wrong for them), jet randomly deadsticks until crashes in remote location in Indian ocean? Cabin crew don't enter cockpit because of muslim culture and knowledge that pilots are 'playboys' and may be 'busy'? Crash locator fails to function. Third world air forces (Malaysian, Thai) culturally incapable of responding to or taking seriously radar returns of unknown aircraft.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:34   #4228 (permalink)
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The UK Daily Mail (Sunday edition) is reporting that the capt had attended the court hearing of a former deputy PM of Malaysia the same day that he took control of MH370. He apparently has been a staunch and vociferous supporter of the accused (of sodomy in a long standing political battle).

Next, MH370 had made a quick climb to outer space practically (to knock crew out and probably FO sent out of cabin (can captain survive on non-pressurized O2 alone?). Following that, a turn was made with a descent to escape radar. All this at a point of ATC handoever (the black window). Further (?deliberate) turns at Nav points, pings upto 7 hours flying time.

The theory here is that the captain was incensed that his friend was awarded a 5 year jail sentence. It follows that the capt is looking for revenge. He is apparently divorced although wife lives in the same house.

I shall leave it to the imagination as to what the captain's intention is (or probably was), in this scenario.
I have mentioned before a weird feeling about the 'Captain's friend', who opened his conversation in two interviews with the same prepared line about how he knows the pilot. ("because of our common interest in social and politic activism")

He talks way too much about the flight simulator.

He is the only person who has come forward desperate to talk and I will say it now...I think he is going to become a spokesman on behalf of the Captain...we'll see.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:37   #4229 (permalink)
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The one thing that strikes me odd about all the talk of hijack (either to destroy the plane in flight or take it intact) is that no-one has claimed responsibility. If you were a terrorist mastermind and wanted to gain from having pulled off this undertaking, would you not be phoning the local media and making it known by now?
If it was a terrorist suicide mission, then I agree. Associates of the guilty parties would have made a statement by now. A suicide of an individual might not be revealed until the personnal effects of the crew and passengers have been searched.

If it was an attempt to take the PAX alive for ransom, it might be some time before they can be moved to secured locations. And if it was intended to take the aircraft, the perps will want to keep things quiet until they use it for some unknown Phase 2 of their plan.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:38   #4230 (permalink)
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Peter Chong


BBC News - Malaysia Airlines MH370: Pilot 'not behind' disappearance

Someone tell me why he has prepared his speech?

Sorry but this I think is seriously relevant...he makes exactly the same comment:

"On the flight simulator...you can create situations."
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:39   #4231 (permalink)
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Officials are leaning towards the captain: Flight 370: Officials lean toward 'those in the cockpit' theory - CNN.com

Knowing Malaysian culture, and in comparison to the denial re: Egypt Air, I would say this is significant.

U.S. intelligence officials are leaning toward the theory that "those in the cockpit" -- the pilots of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 -- were deliberately responsible for the mysterious disappearance of the commercial jetliner, a U.S. official with direct knowledge of the latest thinking told CNN on Saturday.

The revelation followed news that Malaysian authorities searched the home of the lead pilot, a move that came the same day that Prime Minister Najib Razak told reporters the plane veered off course due to apparent deliberate action taken by somebody on board.

The Malaysian government had been looking for a reason to search the home of the pilot and the co-pilot for several days. But it was only in the last 24 to 36 hours when radar and satellite data came to light that authorities believed they had sufficient reason to go through the residences, according to the U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

"The Malaysians don't do this lightly," the official said. It's not clear whether the Malaysian government believes one or both the men could have been responsible for whatever happened to the plane when the Boeing 777-200 ER disappeared March 8 en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:39   #4232 (permalink)
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Couldn't the apparent deliberate turning off of the ACARS and transponder be the actions of a pilot under duress trying to give an indication to anyone watching that something's wrong?

Turning off the ability to communicate could itself be an act of trying to communicate something.

The problem is that noone was watching closely enough in the right areas at the right time.

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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:41   #4233 (permalink)
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UK papers reporting Captain Zaharies laptop was taken last week, then his house guarded. The raid today was for show, based upon new public stance about "deliberate actions".

Now here is a question. If the laptop or other note greatly attacks or criticizes the current government, and i mean harshly, how quick would the current government be to reveal the contents, or even the existence?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:42   #4234 (permalink)
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The elephant in the room is the usually the one people can't bring themselves to talk about.

Given what is in the public domain as of now, is the probability that the one or both of the flight crew were somehow involved or complicit is the most realistic explanation. I assume MAS has the same locked door policy as most carriers but given newspaper headlines this week I have to wonder

I hope this is not the case
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:42   #4235 (permalink)
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harrogate says

Couldn't the apparent deliberate turning off of the ACARS and transponder be the actions of a pilot under duress trying to give an indication to anyone watching that something's wrong?
Why not just tell them when you talk to them after doing those things?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:43   #4236 (permalink)
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I'm surprised more hasn't been made of an in flight fire. Interesting toxins are released by flammable components used in aircraft. Seems a more realistic scenario. Lots of permutations of how a fire may behave & consequences. In the last few years their have been a few that may give food for thought.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:48   #4237 (permalink)
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Please provide just one good reason that communication (transponders, ACARS, etc.) should have an "off" or "st-by" mode?
Even if there is a good scenario, why not encrypted data that only the company can interpret.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:58   #4238 (permalink)
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Where is the evidence ?

This is really getting silly.

Even the Indonesian prime minister is spouting silly theories with no credible evidence. There is no evidence that the transponder or ACARS were switched off. It is far more likely that they were simply out of VHF range or damaged.

"I cant find my plane so someone must have stolen it"
Yea right, try looking in the right place.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 00:59   #4239 (permalink)
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If bad dudes have done this then the no contact from them is very disturbing. Two possibilities are ;
  1. they are taking time to spread the hostages far and wide to stop any chance of rescue , or
  2. they want the aircraft and hostages intact for a secondary purpose eg A B777 cargo hold would any type of mass weapon you could imagine. If the aircraft turned up somewhere and announced we have the hostages we are going to XYZ. It would take a very brave leader to say no, and splash it before it reached the intended target.
Far fetched??? maybe.....but bad dudes have a record for creative thinking in a very twisted way.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 01:03   #4240 (permalink)
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Given the erractic nature of the flight of MH370 as now stated, after turning West, would this be indicative of a Training Captain flying a fully functional aircraft?
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