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Old 16th Mar 2014, 01:32   #4221 (permalink)
 
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Battery fire, taking out essential busses first, crew incapacitated by insidious fumes and confusion (thousands of hours and nothing has ever gone wrong for them), jet randomly deadsticks until crashes in remote location in Indian ocean? Cabin crew don't enter cockpit because of muslim culture and knowledge that pilots are 'playboys' and may be 'busy'? Crash locator fails to function. Third world air forces (Malaysian, Thai) culturally incapable of responding to or taking seriously radar returns of unknown aircraft.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 01:34   #4222 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
The UK Daily Mail (Sunday edition) is reporting that the capt had attended the court hearing of a former deputy PM of Malaysia the same day that he took control of MH370. He apparently has been a staunch and vociferous supporter of the accused (of sodomy in a long standing political battle).

Next, MH370 had made a quick climb to outer space practically (to knock crew out and probably FO sent out of cabin (can captain survive on non-pressurized O2 alone?). Following that, a turn was made with a descent to escape radar. All this at a point of ATC handoever (the black window). Further (?deliberate) turns at Nav points, pings upto 7 hours flying time.

The theory here is that the captain was incensed that his friend was awarded a 5 year jail sentence. It follows that the capt is looking for revenge. He is apparently divorced although wife lives in the same house.

I shall leave it to the imagination as to what the captain's intention is (or probably was), in this scenario.
I have mentioned before a weird feeling about the 'Captain's friend', who opened his conversation in two interviews with the same prepared line about how he knows the pilot. ("because of our common interest in social and politic activism")

He talks way too much about the flight simulator.

He is the only person who has come forward desperate to talk and I will say it now...I think he is going to become a spokesman on behalf of the Captain...we'll see.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 01:37   #4223 (permalink)
 
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The one thing that strikes me odd about all the talk of hijack (either to destroy the plane in flight or take it intact) is that no-one has claimed responsibility. If you were a terrorist mastermind and wanted to gain from having pulled off this undertaking, would you not be phoning the local media and making it known by now?
If it was a terrorist suicide mission, then I agree. Associates of the guilty parties would have made a statement by now. A suicide of an individual might not be revealed until the personnal effects of the crew and passengers have been searched.

If it was an attempt to take the PAX alive for ransom, it might be some time before they can be moved to secured locations. And if it was intended to take the aircraft, the perps will want to keep things quiet until they use it for some unknown Phase 2 of their plan.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 01:38   #4224 (permalink)
 
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Peter Chong


vs

BBC News - Malaysia Airlines MH370: Pilot 'not behind' disappearance

Someone tell me why he has prepared his speech?

Sorry but this I think is seriously relevant...he makes exactly the same comment:

"On the flight simulator...you can create situations."
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 01:39   #4225 (permalink)
 
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Officials are leaning towards the captain: Flight 370: Officials lean toward 'those in the cockpit' theory - CNN.com

Knowing Malaysian culture, and in comparison to the denial re: Egypt Air, I would say this is significant.

Quote:
U.S. intelligence officials are leaning toward the theory that "those in the cockpit" -- the pilots of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 -- were deliberately responsible for the mysterious disappearance of the commercial jetliner, a U.S. official with direct knowledge of the latest thinking told CNN on Saturday.

The revelation followed news that Malaysian authorities searched the home of the lead pilot, a move that came the same day that Prime Minister Najib Razak told reporters the plane veered off course due to apparent deliberate action taken by somebody on board.


The Malaysian government had been looking for a reason to search the home of the pilot and the co-pilot for several days. But it was only in the last 24 to 36 hours when radar and satellite data came to light that authorities believed they had sufficient reason to go through the residences, according to the U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.


"The Malaysians don't do this lightly," the official said. It's not clear whether the Malaysian government believes one or both the men could have been responsible for whatever happened to the plane when the Boeing 777-200 ER disappeared March 8 en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 01:39   #4226 (permalink)
 
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Couldn't the apparent deliberate turning off of the ACARS and transponder be the actions of a pilot under duress trying to give an indication to anyone watching that something's wrong?

Turning off the ability to communicate could itself be an act of trying to communicate something.

The problem is that noone was watching closely enough in the right areas at the right time.

Maybe.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 01:41   #4227 (permalink)
 
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UK papers reporting Captain Zaharies laptop was taken last week, then his house guarded. The raid today was for show, based upon new public stance about "deliberate actions".

Now here is a question. If the laptop or other note greatly attacks or criticizes the current government, and i mean harshly, how quick would the current government be to reveal the contents, or even the existence?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 01:42   #4228 (permalink)
 
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The elephant in the room is the usually the one people can't bring themselves to talk about.

Given what is in the public domain as of now, is the probability that the one or both of the flight crew were somehow involved or complicit is the most realistic explanation. I assume MAS has the same locked door policy as most carriers but given newspaper headlines this week I have to wonder

I hope this is not the case
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 01:42   #4229 (permalink)
 
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harrogate says

Quote:
Couldn't the apparent deliberate turning off of the ACARS and transponder be the actions of a pilot under duress trying to give an indication to anyone watching that something's wrong?
Why not just tell them when you talk to them after doing those things?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 01:43   #4230 (permalink)
 
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I'm surprised more hasn't been made of an in flight fire. Interesting toxins are released by flammable components used in aircraft. Seems a more realistic scenario. Lots of permutations of how a fire may behave & consequences. In the last few years their have been a few that may give food for thought.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 01:48   #4231 (permalink)
 
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Communication

Please provide just one good reason that communication (transponders, ACARS, etc.) should have an "off" or "st-by" mode?
Even if there is a good scenario, why not encrypted data that only the company can interpret.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 01:58   #4232 (permalink)
 
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Where is the evidence ?

This is really getting silly.

Even the Indonesian prime minister is spouting silly theories with no credible evidence. There is no evidence that the transponder or ACARS were switched off. It is far more likely that they were simply out of VHF range or damaged.

"I cant find my plane so someone must have stolen it"
Yea right, try looking in the right place.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 01:59   #4233 (permalink)
 
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If bad dudes have done this then the no contact from them is very disturbing. Two possibilities are ;
  1. they are taking time to spread the hostages far and wide to stop any chance of rescue , or
  2. they want the aircraft and hostages intact for a secondary purpose eg A B777 cargo hold would any type of mass weapon you could imagine. If the aircraft turned up somewhere and announced we have the hostages we are going to XYZ. It would take a very brave leader to say no, and splash it before it reached the intended target.
Far fetched??? maybe.....but bad dudes have a record for creative thinking in a very twisted way.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 02:03   #4234 (permalink)
 
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Given the erractic nature of the flight of MH370 as now stated, after turning West, would this be indicative of a Training Captain flying a fully functional aircraft?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 02:05   #4235 (permalink)
 
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This article as originally posted a few pages back by Andy and discussed by others, IMHO, nails the current situation.

Doomed airliner pilot was political fanatic: Hours before taking control of flight MH370 he attended trial of jailed opposition leader as FBI reveal passengers could be at a secret location | Mail Online

ETA: Blue Amber, re rapid climb and descent - maybe the actions of an FO trying to restore control? JMO

Last edited by LegallyBlonde; 16th Mar 2014 at 02:10. Reason: ETA
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 02:06   #4236 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ancient Geek View Post
There is no evidence that the transponder or ACARS were switched off. It is far more likely that they were simply out of VHF range or damaged.
You understand VHF from an altitude of ~38,000 feet has a "range" of 300nm or more don't you?

Also you understand there is uninterrupted VHF coverage across the entire region in question (Gulf of Thailand/Malaysia etc) and every other aircraft except this one managed to be "in range" and tracked.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 02:12   #4237 (permalink)
 
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quote "Given the erractic nature of the flight of MH370 as now stated, after turning West, would this be indicative of a Training Captain flying a fully functional aircraft?"

No, the erratic nature of the flight, zig-zag and long extended trip to a watery demise in a desolate deep spot 7 hours later, is indicative of a sneaky skilled person with an agenda that includes confusing the world and embarassing a government he resents.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 02:13   #4238 (permalink)
 
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New JORN

I'd raise an eyebrow at the JORN capability 'dezinformaciya' repeated without question in post #4062 and #4125, thus:

"I can well understand the Australians being very cagy about releasing any data analysis which might give clues and cues regarding the extent and limits of their OTHR system, but I am wholly confident it now exceeds by some margin what is widely reported in the public domain.

Viz:

"The Jindalee Operational Radar Network (JORN) is an over-the-horizon radar network that can monitor air and sea movements across 37,000 km2. It has an official range of 3,000 km.

....the JORN delivered in 2003 was designed to a specification developed in the early 1990s. During this period the Alice Springs radar had evolved significantly under the guidance of the Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO). In February 2004 a fifth phase of the JORN project was approved. This phase aimed to upgrade the Laverton and Longreach radars to reflect over a decade of OTHR research and development. Phase five was scheduled to run until approximately the year 2011.

......other sources put the range at 4000 km from the Australian coastline,, as far away as Singapore The JORN is so sensitive it is able to track planes as small as a Cessna 172 taking off and landing in East Timor 2600 km away. Current research is anticipated to increase its sensitivity by a factor of ten beyond this level.

....JORN is designed to detect air targets equivalent in size to a military BAE Hawk-127 jet-trainer aircraft or larger…….enhancements planned beyond Phase 5 are unlikely to markedly improve the system’s ability to detect a vessel smaller than an ACPB patrol boat" ( my emphasis )

A meeting in recent years of the Qinetiq/RAF Boscombe Down branch of the RIN had a presentation on developmenst in OTHR in general and Jindalee in particular. Most of the attendees were Very Senior Development Electronics Engineers and some of the questions and answers were particularly probing and frank. It was clear that operating range 'on a good day' was very considerably more than 3000km and there was brief comment about tracking North Korean missile launches.....

It makes little sense to have a world-class threat tracking system, costing A$billions, and not have it running almost all the time. Does anyone really believe that the published FAQs of this VIP defense capability reflect its full operational range? Bolleaux!

I'm aware of the 'Inverse Square law'. Nevertheless, I suspect the 'Strines will have something to add to the discussion, albeit behind closed doors, and most likely 'shared' with their US allies.

Last edited by oldbilbo; 17th Mar 2014 at 00:16.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 02:13   #4239 (permalink)
 
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Question Silverfox 36

I am a regular reader of PPRuNe but have nothing to do with the airline world. Just an intersted observer. Ever since MH 370 disappeared I have read very confusing reports, today I saw some diagrams in the paper showing the vertical movements of between 45000' and 30000'. If the investigators are so sure of thevertical movement why can't they tell us where the pplane was at that moment. This realy baffles me.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 02:15   #4240 (permalink)
 
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Where is the evidence ?

Quote:
There is no evidence that the transponder or ACARS were switched off. It is far more likely that they were simply out of VHF range or damaged.
Do you really think the Malaysian president would state such things, -things that are corroborated by the AAIB,NTSB and Boeing for him If there were no evidence!!!

Quote:
It is far more likely that they were simply out of VHF range or damaged.
Here you just give away the truth, you have absolutely no idea how these systems operate or the frequencies they operate on. VHF RANGE LOL
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