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Old 15th Mar 2014, 21:56   #4161 (permalink)

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Inmarsats ability to identify MH370

The information still lacking is Inmarsats ability to identify MH370.
Theoretically it should be able to identify the ac, but we don´t know from evidence that it really did. It is just hearsaying. What we need is transcript from every ping. Maybe the pings comes from similar planes.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 21:56   #4162 (permalink)
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Trying again--several post attempts since p150 have not appeared and I don't know why. Too many posts are mired in willful ignorance (didn’t read preceding posts) or in details. There are not many either/ors for this flight. The plane took off. There are a few pieces of information after that but not many. Governments are withholding information. There are active efforts to mislead (either east or west). The plane crashed within a short time after the last CONFIRMED position, or landed under control anytime after that before its fuel was exhausted. The pilot acted alone or with help. The pilot may or may not have been a willing or unwilling (coerced) participant. There was a plan or there wasn’t. The plan was a failure or a success. The pilot died or is alive. The flight’s goal may have been happenstance, a hole in the ocean, or a rendezvous.

Suppositions couched in accurate detail are still only suppositions. Suppositions do assist in exploring each possible outcome. Passengers, who have been getting most of the attention, may have been mere pawns and their well being perhaps not important. There are many possibilities where the value of passenger lives may have been irrelevant to some “greater good”.

Everyone wants to believe pilots eternally will act in passengers best interests. Excluding suicide, which appears unlikely unless there was last minute indecision, it took 150 pages on this forum for the idea of intention to get out. Intention beyond suicide may well be behind this. The plan may have been a success. Even if debris were now found floating somewhere, a plan may already have been a success to someone. We don’t want to think this, and have trouble imagining a good greater than 239 lives, but there are astonishing numbers of people who for the correct greater good in their own eyes would see the lives of 238 or 239 passengers to be a small and economical price to pay for something they want.

More attention needs to be paid to what or who might have been on that flight.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 21:57   #4163 (permalink)

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Would also like to know more about those 'noshows' who were replaced.

- Why were they no shows and has anyone spoken to them?
- who replaced them?
- when was this done?
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 21:58   #4164 (permalink)
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Based on my review of the underlying protocols there are a couple of candidates for "pings". There are requests to establish a comm link between the a/c and ground station via satellite that involve underlying requests to use a particular communication channel with an exchange of packets negotiating that connection (AMSS). Then there are keepalive packets (IDRP) exchanged once a connection is established that occur periodically. I suspect that there were 4 connection requests with more numerous keepalive packets exchanged in between. Of course this is conjecture. I have no way of knowing but someone does!

In the end, I suspect that BOTH are true - 4 pings of one kind and numerous pings of another kind.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 22:00   #4165 (permalink)
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Another thought on SATCOM derived lines of position:

Depending on how long the backlogs of inmarsat are, it should be possible to find data of previous flights of the a/c in the logs. Whatever data is logged there (signal strength, round trip delay, dopplershift, ???), it should be possible to calibrate specifics of MH370 transceiver against data from previous flights. For those flights the exact position, height and speed vector should be known for the points in time when the pings where exchanged.

Probably a bunch of RF engineers is doing extra shifts right now. Im pretty confident, in the end it will boil down to the question, where did MH370 go to after 8:11 MYT.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 22:00   #4166 (permalink)

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The pings that have been tracked, do they stop when an aircraft is powered down at an airport or do they continue under battery?

(not a pilot or journalist but a fascinated observer)
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 22:02   #4167 (permalink)
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I think, overthewing, he was assuming that the CVR had been disabled at the same time as the transponder etc, and so had indeed recorded Act 1 of the drama.
However, the CVR can be erased (by anybody on the flight deck) by the mere push of a button.
Whereas the FDR...........
I think the CVR can only be erased with the aircraft on the ground (WOW) and the engines shutdown?
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 22:04   #4168 (permalink)
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Speed of sound, you may be right about it being easier to rob the truck but if it was 4300kg of gold you were trying to pinch (see earlier posts for derivation of this figure) how would you move it?
Four and a half tonnes of gold? I'd move it in a 7.5 tonne truck!

And does anyone seriously believe that £120 million worth of gold would be carried on a scheduled passenger flight?
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 22:05   #4169 (permalink)
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We would also like to know the fuel load. Both are highly relevant, however we are not going to get that information and the reasons it's being withheld can be perfectly good security reasons, not automatically sinister ones.
Really? The plane and 200 or so people have been missing now for 9 days. Releasing cargo and fuel information is hardly going to make it less secure!
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 22:08   #4170 (permalink)
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The US Navy 5th fleet always has a carrier group covering the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and parts of the Indian Ocean.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 22:08   #4171 (permalink)
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Looks like it headed off further west between Australia and Madagascar
This more westerly route is incompatible with this map (or Australian defence simply missed the object regardless what they say). Or they took the northerly route.

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Old 15th Mar 2014, 22:09   #4172 (permalink)

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hijacking hijackers

speaking as a software design and AI guy, it seems entirely sensible and do-able that, in specific cases, total control of a plane could be taken away from the cockpit and handed to a combination of autopilot systems and external commands (via satellite), in other words, turn the plane into a drone.

so far, the scenario is compatible with unknown problem detected one hour into flight, external diversion of plane to miliitarily secure airport via low-detection routing and releasing, for the time being, misinformation to a) mislead "enemy" and b) try and keep this capabilty secret.

does anybody know if external-takeover technology is possible/implemented/out of the question?
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 22:11   #4173 (permalink)
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Not even that. The arcs represents the possible positions of the aircraft at the time of the last ping. This seems to be mostly based on the measured distance of the plane from the satellite and the limits on the altitude of the aircraft. This ought to yield a full circle. Consideration of satellite coverage eliminates parts of the circle, and other parts have been eliminated by consideration of the range and possible speed of the aircraft.
Yes I think you might be correct. You must have copied my post when it was still a draft before I edited it.

I thought that they had multiple pings but your suggestion that they only mapped the final ping actually fits better. What are the odds that multiple pings would have exactly the same strength as shown in the arc (unless the aircraft was stationary by that point)?

EDIT (3-16-2014): The arcs are possible locations of the last ping from one satellite. This fact is being reported very well by some broadcasters (so well you would wonder why there was ever a question) but still being called a "flight path" by other broadcasters. The "flight path" broadcasters are doing it wrong. Obviously I got my original information from the "flight path" sources, hence my confusion.

Last edited by lakedude; 16th Mar 2014 at 23:41.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 22:17   #4174 (permalink)
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I think the CVR can only be erased with the aircraft on the ground (WOW) and the engines shutdown?
Aircraft on the ground with parking brake set.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 22:19   #4175 (permalink)
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The sad thing is we would of knew 99.9% of this information 2/3 days ago if the Malaysians were being transparent and honest.

Could a plane really land without being noticed? There clearly has been some sort of pre-planned situation, by the person who had control of the aircraft, to at least go somewhere (this is surely proved by the evidence that the plane flew for over 7 hours after).

Would it have to be the pilots that done this or would it have to be an "inside job"? Everybody seems to forget that there were 2 people on board travelling on stolen passports? This cargo story is surely clutching at straws.

No doubt some more contradictory, delayed information will be released by the Malaysian government in the coming days. They know tonnes more than they're letting on.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 22:19   #4176 (permalink)
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Diego Garcia: I think it would be very safe to assume that if a large unidentifiable plane flew anywhere remotely close to Diego Garcia it would have been noticed.
Agreed, I would expect the base(s) in the region to be on some escalated level of alert as soon as the plane went missing in "9-11" style transponders off. Like a disturbed wasps nest some interceptors would be up and anchored navy ships put to sea. Based on past events if it showed up on defense radar they would have at least 2 interceptors.
Without doubt this appears to be a hijack given the prevailing data points. The alleged route appears to be have been very well planned.
I totally understand any intentional obfuscation by the Malaysian authorities. It is not in the best interest of authorities to immediately share all information with the public during an ongoing hijack/terrorist incident. It would potentially give too much feedback to perpetrators and enable them to stay one step ahead of the authorities.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 22:29   #4177 (permalink)

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#4191 map can be derived as follows.

You may infer from the strength of the last ping, how far away the plane was during the last ping. The "center" of the arc is eliminated, because this area is covered by some form of radar or other satellite, which did not see the aircraft. Based on the timing of the ping and the maximum speed of the aircraft, it would not be possible for the aircraft to make it to the left side of the circle.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 22:30   #4178 (permalink)
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Alright this post spells it out perfectly:

Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

The arc is in fact from the last ping.

That being the case there must be other arcs from the other earlier pings we are not being shown. If the plane was just a bit farther north (or south really) when they lost contact these other arc might be such that one of the N/S duplicates would be impossible. They must have pings from when they actually knew where the plane was. It is an unfortunate coincidence that the plane was so close in the N/S direction to the satellite when they lost track of it...
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 22:34   #4179 (permalink)
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Sorry, but it wont be easier to simply "hijack" the truck or trucks with that supposed Money or Gold when driving towards Kuala Int Airport?
Ok, supposing an abandoned cold war era field along Kirgyz/China border was used....it was night period...no fullmoon light at all, poor Navaids or even some ATC, lots of High Terrain in prox, after landed some sort of heavy handling material with some (lets say) dozens of persons for staff that operation was requested, and another miriad of other questions too???
What doing with the PAX after that?
At least some runway working illumination, me thinks...after that where to hide it? Even nowadays sitting normally on our rooms we still surf the earth with Google Maps and Earth,,,its not impossible, but would say, too much Hollywood for almost failing 99%.
And too many people involved without one of them simply breaking the silence pact!???
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 22:34   #4180 (permalink)

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should westerly read southerly?
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