Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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Captain
On the BBC website there is a video of an interview with a friend of the captain called Peter Chong. He mentions he befriended the captain through being a 'social and political activist' - does anyone know any more details? and what does this actually mean in the context of the area as a whole?
Owenshaw.
Owenshaw.
Until flight recorders and wreckage has been found the freight manifest is irrelevant...
An excellent post by WillowRun_6_3 a page earlier summarized the implications (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8375148).
Last edited by andrasz; 14th Mar 2014 at 16:20.
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justanotherflyer
In my law enforcement experience, it would be very unusual to find any signs of duress, blackmail or threats at the victim's house.
Such threats are likely to have been verbal, rather than written, and delivered personally by the blackmailer.
Zaharie would also not have been the ideal target for a blackmail attempt. He had 33 years in the job and was clearly devoted to it. He would be highly unlikely to have sold his employer, risked a beloved aircraft or the lives of hundreds of passengers.
There is also the question of planning. A theft of this nature would require a lot of long-term planning. First, I would imagine that it would not be known for sure, until the last minute, which aircraft the cargo they were after would be on. Second, I don't know what sort of rostering system MAS runs for its crews, but he would probably not have known his exact roster until a couple of weeks before this flight departed.
All of these factors make me think that a hijacking is more likely than crew stealing the aircraft. What may be of more interest are PAX who bought tickets close to the date of departure.
Such threats are likely to have been verbal, rather than written, and delivered personally by the blackmailer.
Zaharie would also not have been the ideal target for a blackmail attempt. He had 33 years in the job and was clearly devoted to it. He would be highly unlikely to have sold his employer, risked a beloved aircraft or the lives of hundreds of passengers.
There is also the question of planning. A theft of this nature would require a lot of long-term planning. First, I would imagine that it would not be known for sure, until the last minute, which aircraft the cargo they were after would be on. Second, I don't know what sort of rostering system MAS runs for its crews, but he would probably not have known his exact roster until a couple of weeks before this flight departed.
All of these factors make me think that a hijacking is more likely than crew stealing the aircraft. What may be of more interest are PAX who bought tickets close to the date of departure.
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A link to the Peter Chong interview.
BBC News - Missing Malaysia Airlines jet: Pilot is 'professional'
BBC News - Missing Malaysia Airlines jet: Pilot is 'professional'
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The momentum of this bizarre puzzle suggests deliberate human effort. Investigators need to assess the psychological profiles of the pilots; including data on the captain's flight simulator hard drive.
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Inmarsat comms monitoring/positioning
@oleole
@newjourno
The (short) article from BBC's Johnathan Amos is correct in that Inmarsat transmissions can be monitored and geo-located.
If the plane made any transmissions over Inmarsat - automated signal, or whatever - there exists available technology, coaligned with the Inmarsat system, to pretty accurately identify the emitters position.
See: IMS
@newjourno
The (short) article from BBC's Johnathan Amos is correct in that Inmarsat transmissions can be monitored and geo-located.
If the plane made any transmissions over Inmarsat - automated signal, or whatever - there exists available technology, coaligned with the Inmarsat system, to pretty accurately identify the emitters position.
See: IMS
glueball
i think your a bit deluded sorry
glueball says in post 3320
The momentum of this bizarre puzzle suggests deliberate human effort. Investigators need to assess the psychological profiles of the pilots; including data on the captain's flight simulator hard drive.
my reply=
there is NO investigation as yet as it hasn't crashed in any one country for that
country to start one officially
nor is it a criminal investigation
this is a SAR operation still that is all
there are NO leads official whatsoever as yet that can link anything
no one has any remit to search the captains house or hard drives
glueball says in post 3320
The momentum of this bizarre puzzle suggests deliberate human effort. Investigators need to assess the psychological profiles of the pilots; including data on the captain's flight simulator hard drive.
my reply=
there is NO investigation as yet as it hasn't crashed in any one country for that
country to start one officially
nor is it a criminal investigation
this is a SAR operation still that is all
there are NO leads official whatsoever as yet that can link anything
no one has any remit to search the captains house or hard drives
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Yes this is a speculation but I believe we need to look into crew suicide. Only this time, the crew member didn't want anyone to find out it was suicide and so he/she proceeded to take the plane stealthily to a spot no one would be able to find it.
I'm sure the suicide plan took into account that previous suicides by pilots were discovered by investigators to be suicides due to blackboxes.
I sure hope though that the plane landed/bellylanded somewhere with the passengers still alive...
I'm sure the suicide plan took into account that previous suicides by pilots were discovered by investigators to be suicides due to blackboxes.
I sure hope though that the plane landed/bellylanded somewhere with the passengers still alive...
Does anyone else find it odd that when the search was expanded to the west, China came up with satellite pictures of debris to the east. And now that we are searching a specific flight path to the west, China comes up with a seismic event to the east? 
...
What the heck is going on?
...
What the heck is going on?
If I were a cynic I would say everyone pursues the scenario which would be less troublesome for them. For the US (.Gov) a Terror Scenario is probably preferable over a fault of the aircraft. The T7 is Boeing's Cash Cow and anything that fosters fear of Terror helps to keep the war on Terror alive. For China it's the inverse. They can't use another Terror attack by the Uighurs at the moment. Equipment failure would be no problem for them.
In reality pure co-incidence though, for sure.
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Quote:
[Does anyone else find it odd that when the search was expanded to the west, China came up with satellite pictures of debris to the east. And now that we are searching a specific flight path to the west, China comes up with a seismic event to the east?]
No, amateur Chinese detectives -not everything that comes out of China is controlled by Beijing
[Does anyone else find it odd that when the search was expanded to the west, China came up with satellite pictures of debris to the east. And now that we are searching a specific flight path to the west, China comes up with a seismic event to the east?]
No, amateur Chinese detectives -not everything that comes out of China is controlled by Beijing
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Yes this is a speculation but I believe we need to look into crew suicide. Only this time, the crew member didn't want anyone to find out it was suicide and so he/she proceeded to take the plane stealthily to a spot no one would be able to find it.
I'm sure the suicide plan took into account that previous suicides by pilots were discovered by investigators to be suicides due to blackboxes.
I sure hope though that the plane landed/bellylanded somewhere with the passengers still alive...
I'm sure the suicide plan took into account that previous suicides by pilots were discovered by investigators to be suicides due to blackboxes.
I sure hope though that the plane landed/bellylanded somewhere with the passengers still alive...
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Inmarsat
Oleole is on the right track. The Inmarsat constellation has been upgraded over the last 12 months. The new satellites have vastly upgraded processor capability (486 to P5) that has allowed them to move much more data at much higher speeds. I am sure that there were a number of other upgraded capabilities as well (spot beam...) The first satellite to be upgraded was the one over the Indian Ocean last summer.
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A theft of this nature would require a lot of long-term planning.
And that is where this whole 'gold heist' theory falls down. If you have the resources to steal an aircraft full of gold/diamonds/Justin Bieber CDs, fly it anonymously to a secure landing site and off-load the booty, then you may as well just hijack the truck on its way too or from the airport!
Much cheaper, less risky and involves a hell of a lot less people.
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Can't imagine it's very convenient having 200 passengers as unwilling participants in your plan.
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Military response
This article makes an interesting point.
There appears to be a high probability of a 4+ hours flight in a "9-11" transponders off situation. In the US/Euro they have scrambled the interceptors for far less than this incident. How do we reconcile a hijack style flight with zero response from the military?
1. it was detected, ignored, no action taken and the military kept quiet.
2. it was detected, action was taken and military kept quiet.
3. it was not detected. The military genuinely had no awareness, military telling the truth. Therefore the region has no effective air defense monitoring.
Whichever way this turns out the air defense has got some explaining to do.
Aviation experts have baulked at the possibility of the missing jet flying on for hours undetected in the region, which is a hotbed of bitter territorial disputes and therefore subject to round-the clock surveillance by the competing parties.
Flying from the point where radar contact was lost in South China Sea to the Indian Ocean would have taken the plane through airspace monitored by Malaysian, Thai, Vietnamese, Chinese, Indonesian and Indian military radar.
"How did it get past all of that?" said Gerry Soejatman, an independent aviation analyst based in Jakarta.
Neil Hansford, chairman of leading Australian airline consultancy Strategic Aviation Solutions, said: "An aircraft, without any transponders on, going over the top of anybody's airspace would have become a military incident and somebody would have done something."
Flying from the point where radar contact was lost in South China Sea to the Indian Ocean would have taken the plane through airspace monitored by Malaysian, Thai, Vietnamese, Chinese, Indonesian and Indian military radar.
"How did it get past all of that?" said Gerry Soejatman, an independent aviation analyst based in Jakarta.
Neil Hansford, chairman of leading Australian airline consultancy Strategic Aviation Solutions, said: "An aircraft, without any transponders on, going over the top of anybody's airspace would have become a military incident and somebody would have done something."
1. it was detected, ignored, no action taken and the military kept quiet.
2. it was detected, action was taken and military kept quiet.
3. it was not detected. The military genuinely had no awareness, military telling the truth. Therefore the region has no effective air defense monitoring.
Whichever way this turns out the air defense has got some explaining to do.
Originally Posted by rog747
there is NO investigation as yet as it hasn't crashed in any one country for that
country to start one officially
nor is it a criminal investigation
this is a SAR operation still that is all
country to start one officially
nor is it a criminal investigation
this is a SAR operation still that is all
But at some point the Malaysian authorities will have to make a tough call, if the aircraft or wreckage is not found soon. As they are the state of registry, at present they (and ONLY they) have the right to launch an official investigation, which may later be ceded if the plane is to be found in some other territory. Similarly, if there were any criminal act it would have been committed on board an aircraft of Malaysian registry, so until that aircraft is found to have landed elsewhere, they are only ones who may launch a criminal investigation. In the case of the former I'm sure all evidence had been secured, so the SAR effort takes full precedence (as it should) and there would be no benefit derived from launching a parallel investigative process. On the other hand in the latter case time is of essence, just someone needs to make the call.
SAR operation ongoing
this is an ongoing SAR
andrasz is correct in his above post
albeit a messy SAR and upsetting for the relatives
but to remind everyone there is NO investigation at this time as NO single country can claim the right to start one yet -
the a/c is still missing and only MAS and their home country plus any other offering help can only legitimately focus on the SAR for now and collect any data
to assist to locate the 777.
then and only then can an official investigation begin once its found or evidence obtained suggests a reason for the disappearance
there are NO official leads so far on anything concrete relating to any reason or evidence
whatsoever for why this a/c went missing - can we keep it real please
andrasz is correct in his above post
albeit a messy SAR and upsetting for the relatives
but to remind everyone there is NO investigation at this time as NO single country can claim the right to start one yet -
the a/c is still missing and only MAS and their home country plus any other offering help can only legitimately focus on the SAR for now and collect any data
to assist to locate the 777.
then and only then can an official investigation begin once its found or evidence obtained suggests a reason for the disappearance
there are NO official leads so far on anything concrete relating to any reason or evidence
whatsoever for why this a/c went missing - can we keep it real please
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Criminal ..... Intent? Procedure? .... or Genius?
No one is accusing the crew or others in the industry who make paper airplanes (Guilty!) of bad intent. That rejoinder misses the point.
I would have loved to spin out one or more scenarios. It could be fun. But only in some other context not one with such somber unknowns. To borrow a true aviation phrase, the trailing wake vortex of this incident is going to be dramatic and it is going to be significant and highly impactful - and that's based JUST on what we do know at this time. Some of which may need to be "revised and extended" as more, and/or more accurate, information sees the light of day.
If you are someone who reads threads on this board somewhat (or quite) routinely....have you not noticed the absence of posts to the effect of, 'yes, this might have happened or that could have occurred, but let's get the CVR and that will tell the tale and/or let's have NTSB do its work and then when report is out we'll know." Quite-stupidly-and-obviously: where is the [censored] aircraft?
My sense is that there isn't even remotely the same kind of 'playbook' for this particular fact pattern. Moreover, let us not, repeat negative, NOT, assume ANY lack of evil creativity. Pause and reflect - some or all of the horror of September the Eleventh was the quite-totally incomprehensibly "Surprise!" of it all.
So rule nothing out. Of course this applies to "things" of and in the real world. I do know that Whatever-They're-Called from a Transformers movie did not eat the aircraft for lunch. I do not know where it is, how it got there, by whom, or why.
But I'm shredding my ticket to practice Law - and it is not an e-ticket - the day I become too lazy, ethically and thinking-wise, to apply the very (legally) elementary principle of evidential relevance. Or as a famous law professor used to say, "What you don't know can hurt you, and then you'll have to eat your lunch all by yourself."
I would have loved to spin out one or more scenarios. It could be fun. But only in some other context not one with such somber unknowns. To borrow a true aviation phrase, the trailing wake vortex of this incident is going to be dramatic and it is going to be significant and highly impactful - and that's based JUST on what we do know at this time. Some of which may need to be "revised and extended" as more, and/or more accurate, information sees the light of day.
If you are someone who reads threads on this board somewhat (or quite) routinely....have you not noticed the absence of posts to the effect of, 'yes, this might have happened or that could have occurred, but let's get the CVR and that will tell the tale and/or let's have NTSB do its work and then when report is out we'll know." Quite-stupidly-and-obviously: where is the [censored] aircraft?
My sense is that there isn't even remotely the same kind of 'playbook' for this particular fact pattern. Moreover, let us not, repeat negative, NOT, assume ANY lack of evil creativity. Pause and reflect - some or all of the horror of September the Eleventh was the quite-totally incomprehensibly "Surprise!" of it all.
So rule nothing out. Of course this applies to "things" of and in the real world. I do know that Whatever-They're-Called from a Transformers movie did not eat the aircraft for lunch. I do not know where it is, how it got there, by whom, or why.
But I'm shredding my ticket to practice Law - and it is not an e-ticket - the day I become too lazy, ethically and thinking-wise, to apply the very (legally) elementary principle of evidential relevance. Or as a famous law professor used to say, "What you don't know can hurt you, and then you'll have to eat your lunch all by yourself."
