Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[answer=42]

@Brika

The way I understand it, the way the logic works is like this:

If (engines running) then {
Every half hour {
Get (time, direction, speed, altitude);
If (engine event) then Get (engine status);
Get (other information);
Ping (time, direction, speed, altitude, engine status, other information) to recipients;
}
}

But, because the engine status and other information reports have been switched off, what was actually happening was:

If (engines running) then {
Every half hour {
Get (time, direction, speed, altitude);
Ping (time, direction, speed, altitude) to recipients;
}
}

On reception by Rolls Royce, this ping is automatically detected as null information and is therefore filtered out, probably with no record.

The ping with time, direction, speed, altitude comes from a source other than Rolls Royce.

What we know as a consequence of the US analysis is the location at the last ping, its then current time, direction, speed, altitude and when the engines were switched off.

There appears to be a gap in time between the last way-station and the reported engine off time. This is because the way-station is in the middle of the ocean. Hence, this does not tell us much.

Question: if the routing had been maintained after the last way-station passed, what would be the identity of the next way-station and when would it have been passed?

[Van Der]

@James7 (sorry I cannot find the quote function...)
Ref your post in italics below:


"dmba...The idea that pilots would take a plane should surely be the least conceivable on this forum...

History is not on your side. Only recently an Ethiopian plane was hijacked by the co-pilot with the Captain locked out. Aircraft landed in Geneva etc.."


Also recently (Nov 2013) a LAM Embraer 190 was "hijacked" by the Captain and flown into the ground enroute between MPM and LAD, killing all 27 occupants.


http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...rashed-11.html


Maybe not so inconceivable anymore...?

[aterpster]

it is very common place for any pilot to have a flight sim

Not professionals.

Some have light airplanes, some fly gliders; most try to forget about all of it on their own time.

[kenjaDROP]

About the 'pings'

Those of you postulating about whether the 'ping' paging addresses from the aircraft's SATCOM system reporting would contain GPS, flight level, speed, heading, etc.....it clearly didn't because it didn't pass over ANY data string. Get it into your heads, as confirmed officially, the airline was not signed up for this aircraft to pass SATCOM data of this type to Boeing.

Why do you posters keep going over the same ground asking about data transfer from the aircraft?!

What the plane WAS doing is, nevertheless, continuing to page the (non-contracted into) satellite monitoring system with its 'pings'.

Now, if there were two satellites or, better, three which had logged only those pings against accurate time, that would - when all the mountain of data is analysed - provide a position. The continuing repeat 'pings', with known time frequency, would enable the monitoring organisation to extrapolate the heading and speed, and maybe the altitude, for as long as the 'pings' lasted.

[turnandburn]

As most incidents have multiple factors. Adecompression with mec fire with multiple bus failures, and in doning oxy masks the oxy bottles were refilled with nitrogen(the ground ones that is) this transfered to aircraft.
They just tried to turn back before being overcome with toxic fumes.Drop to FL295 give best TAS

Like UPS and asiana 747s
Everything supposition until they find something

[FlyingOfficerKite]

The fact of a commercial pilot with 18000 hrs having a flight simulator set up at home is VERY VERY suspicious indeed.

I've got an air rifle in my loft, a selection of knives in the kitchen, a pilot's licence and a map of the World.

I don't believe it - I'm a knife wielding, gun toting, international suicide pilot - AND I NEVER KNEW IT!!!

Seriously though, I'm pleased no one's mentioned the parachutes kept in the flight deck - just in case we decide its a bad day and we've had enough!

[CommanderCYYZ]

@aterpster and Comanche

I've been flying commercial (747 and AB340s) for longer than I care to admit, and I have a flightsim at home in the basement. Does that make me crazy or a criminal?

Lots of my colleagues fly sims at home, or go to a location near YYZ where they have a near professional grade simulator that one can rent. Simulators allow you to fly situations that you hope you will never encounter in real life, or simply try other virtual AC just for the fun of it.

You guys...

[answer=42]

@KenjaDROP

Your statement:

Those of you postulating about whether the 'ping' paging addresses from the aircraft's SATCOM system reporting would contain GPS, flight level, speed, heading, etc.....it clearly didn't because it didn't pass over ANY data string. Get it into your heads, as confirmed officially, the airline was not signed up for this aircraft to pass SATCOM data of this type to Boeing.

is TRUE.

But there were other recipients than Boeing of data transmissions (via ground station or SATCOM). These include RR, who have confirmed that they received the first two normal transmissions.

[toffeez]

bcmpqm

"Could MH370, if it had been flying for 4-5 hours have successfully landed on a 4500' runway at sea level?"

Yes, but it would have to be a real pilot with some practice at same.

[papershuffler]

@brika; answer=42

The ping with time, direction, speed, altitude comes from a source other than Rolls Royce.

What we know as a consequence of the US analysis is the location at the last ping, its then current time, direction, speed, altitude and when the engines were switched off.

Does the ping include identity information though?



From post on flyertalk:

India Expands Search for Missing MH370 in Bay of Bengal Sea BFW 12:30
Indian Navy Confident Missing Plane Not Near Andaman Islands BFW 12:15
*INDIA HAS CONTINUOUS RADAR DETECTION SYSTEM CLOSE TO ANDAMAN BN 12:04
*INDIAN NAVY OFFICIAL COMMENTS ON SEARCH FOR MISSING MH370 PL... BN 12:04
*INDIAN NAVY CONFIDENT MISSING PLANE NOT NEAR ANDAMAN ISLANDS BN 12:04
*INDIAN RADARS WOULD HAVE DETECTED PLANE IF IT ENTERED ANDAMAN BN 12:04


March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Indian Navy is confident missing
Malaysian Airline flight 370 not near Andaman Islands because it
would have been detected by radar, said a naval official, who
declined to be identified as the official isn’t authorized to
discuss the matter publicly.
• Says the area is a key shipping route, heavily patrolled by navy to prevent pirate attacks
• There is continuous radar detection system close to Andaman Islands that would have picked up the plane

Somewhat contradictory; for them to be searching in the Bay of Bengal, the plane would have had to circumvent the Andaman Islands?

Other radar coverage info:
Vietnam - Products & Services

[answer=42]

@papershuffler
Yes, it must do. The primary purpose is to provide information for maintenance of the particular aircraft.
Someone with more knowledge than I posted ages ago about the data packet structure and encryption.

[kenjaDROP]

@papershuffler

Does the ping include identity information though?

It would be better if it did, but, in a way, it doesn't have to include identity, if you think about it. If, after all the data analysis, the sat monitoring of the pings produced the track of an aircraft (carrying the capability to ping this system), non-identifiable*, in this region, then you could take a fair guess it could be MH370.

*non-identifiable via passive radar/ATC, that is.

[ChicoG]

This captain was a true Aviator who loved his job and who loved his plane and who loved flying. And he was one who believed in sharing the dream with the simulation community and had FUN doing it. I also understand he was involved with one company who makes high fidelity flight sim products.

No, aviation today does not only consist of people who can't wait for retirement, some people actually love their job. Some of them fly warbirds, some of them have a private Cessna and others have a flight sim. If that makes them suspects, then I don't know who we should trust to fly our airliners. I think we sometimes forget that there are people who genuinely love flying and live their dream in every way they can. God bless them, there are enough others too.

I really don't think someone who has a Flight Sim at home for sinister purposes would be broadcasting the fact, along with all the hardware that he's bought to put it together (sounds like he built his own -rather impressive - Gaming PC for this purpose), and more importantly using his own name.

He's obviously a really keen gamer and SIM'er, so people that keep harping on about this point really aren't doing themselves any favours.

Background chatter that can be turned down I think.

[philipat]

Why do you posters keep going over the same ground asking about data transfer from the aircraft?!

Because the Americans state this is what they have? It might be triangulated from data collected by other Spook satellites so don't expect them to be too specific.

[Comanche]

I totally disagree with you, you're making judgement on a person based on your own experience or that of other (potentially) burned out drivers (often with long careers at regional level).

I know of a pilots with 14K+ totally absorbed by their r/c hobby or flight sim hobby, building and developing planes in both. Capt Shah was even cooperating and helping a flight sim software developer to produce T7 sims.

Professional pilots flying flight sims at home - in the short haul sector at least - is more of an exception then a rule. Or at least pilots don't tell, don't ask. Admittedly, the long haul sector I know little about and perhaps the lack of landings/take offs - and my imagination may be able to stretch so far - is reason for having fun in a computer sim. If capt Shah had a business or interest on the side helping to develop sims, now that is an ENTIRELY different story and I would cordially withdraw any of my comments if that's the case.

[Hornbill88]

All through this tragic and appalling episode I have been most persuaded by the simplest solution - catastrophic malfunction, pilot tries to go back to KL, passes out and plane flies on in straight line until fuel runs out.

But I do wonder:

1 why Hashimmuddin is so evasive on background checks on crew. Maybe it is a "police matter" as he says but he is big shot enough to get the police to report, unless they have already done so and he doesn't like the answers. Ditto for the pilot's sim - seems not unreasonable to me that he should have one at home, so why not just go and take a look at what's there?

2 why no-one has said what's in the cargo - though to be fair, I'm not sure that anyone other than posters on this site has asked. The journalists certainly haven't at the last two news conferences.

3 what is the source of this notion of zig-zagging round the waypoints in the Andaman Sea and tracking the SQ flight? I can't find the original post, which might (very reasonably) have been deleted, I have only seen the comments which sound totally bizarre.

[James7]

Tracking

Not sure if all or any DME stations have recording facilities but it could be possible to ID an aircraft from the DME pulses. Each DME transmits an unique set of pulses specifics to the transceiver.

The pilots obviously knew what they were doing if it is eventually found out that it was stolen / hijacked. My guess anyway.

Probably used JepView on an iPad connected to a Bluetooth GPS to navigate.
If the guy was into flight sim etc, no doubt had Jeppersen on his iPad. Or any other multitude of standalone map apps.

No need for any Flight management transmissions to give their position away.

[thcrozier]

Radar coverage on Malaysian Pelinsula

Way way back in this thread, someone posted a nice map showing a corridor with no overlapping radar coverage on the MP. That was when there were only vague suggestions of a primary paint turning back to the Northwest.

Can't find it now. Anyone have the post #?

Peninsula

[SMOC]

Their background should be checked, their houses searched, the flight simulator carefully scrutinised etc etc - in the hope that some clue to this mystery, however small, may be turned up.

Agree, however the posts here using the simulator as proof of foul play are a joke, as it's been said people have hobbies, private planes, radio controlled, all sorts just because it's different to others doesn't make it evidence.

If he had a SCUBA qualification and crashed in the water then he must be guilty, imagine if he did skydiving as a hobby.

[dmba]

Map

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BirwabjCIAACtVF.png:large