Airblue down near Islamabad
Per Ardua ad Astraeus
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: UK
Posts: 18,579
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Originally Posted by Meekal
How on earth would I know what this captain was doing and whether he had his 'own' procedure -- or something that PIA pilot's have up their sleeve!? You 'suggest' you fly/flew for PIA and operated into Islambad so as a 'PIA pilot' I guess there is a reasonable chance you might know of such?
There is nothing mysterious about circling to 12 after a letdown on 30. Capt. Choudhry must have done it himself many times and since we run our 747-200/300 on the domestic sector as well (Karachi-Lahore, Karachi-Islamabad, and return), he would have had all that extra 'practice' as it were. Who mentioned 'mysterious'? It is not the circling approach I am querying, is it? I would have thought that should have been pretty clear by now
There is nothing mysterious about circling to 12 after a letdown on 30. Capt. Choudhry must have done it himself many times and since we run our 747-200/300 on the domestic sector as well (Karachi-Lahore, Karachi-Islamabad, and return), he would have had all that extra 'practice' as it were. Who mentioned 'mysterious'? It is not the circling approach I am querying, is it? I would have thought that should have been pretty clear by now
Guest
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: On the Beach
Posts: 3,336
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
BOAC:
Here are some Google Earth reference points:
Mosque:
N 33 43 46.3
E 73 02 16.3
6.85 n.m. from approach end runway (AER) 12, true bearing 339.6
Crash Site # 1:
N33 44 40.5
E 73 01 51.2
7.82 n.m. from AER 12, true bearing 339.5
Crash Site #2 (the one I "vote" for based on recovery photos we have seen)
N 33 44 48.9
E73 02 26.6
7.80 n.m. from AER Rwy 12, true bearing 343.2
Regarding crash site location, you may wish to rewind to macacha #81 and PJ2 #124 to get an idea of where it is. On Google earth you can pick up the two 'roads' in PJ's crash site simulation.
Mosque:
N 33 43 46.3
E 73 02 16.3
6.85 n.m. from approach end runway (AER) 12, true bearing 339.6
Crash Site # 1:
N33 44 40.5
E 73 01 51.2
7.82 n.m. from AER 12, true bearing 339.5
Crash Site #2 (the one I "vote" for based on recovery photos we have seen)
N 33 44 48.9
E73 02 26.6
7.80 n.m. from AER Rwy 12, true bearing 343.2
Last edited by aterpster; 6th Aug 2010 at 20:22. Reason: Corrected LON to correct Hemisphere (W to E)
Per Ardua ad Astraeus
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: UK
Posts: 18,579
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Yes - whichever - we do not as far as I know have the exact position. Which/whatever it is, they must have roared over the city at some point which would surely have triggered a ?
Per Ardua ad Astraeus
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: UK
Posts: 18,579
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Meekal - I think it is time you 'came clean'? Your talk about what the other pilot said to you at AMS 'in the cockpit' etc etc - Straight question - do these words from the Tribune from an article by [email protected] sound familiar? Post #71?
"A doctor buries his mistake. A pilot is buried with his. Even though I sit 7,200 miles away from the scene of the crash, the shock was palpable. I have lived in Islamabad for 25 years. I love commercial aviation and have read countless books on the subject with a focus on flight safety. Despite many air accidents that we read about, flying is the safest form of travel. It is calculated that if you were born on an airplane and flew in it and never got off, you would not be involved in a fatal accident until you are 78 years old. Those are pretty good odds."
So - PIA pilot or not? It will colour our judgement of your comments somewhat. We also prefer that journalists declare themselves clearly.
"A doctor buries his mistake. A pilot is buried with his. Even though I sit 7,200 miles away from the scene of the crash, the shock was palpable. I have lived in Islamabad for 25 years. I love commercial aviation and have read countless books on the subject with a focus on flight safety. Despite many air accidents that we read about, flying is the safest form of travel. It is calculated that if you were born on an airplane and flew in it and never got off, you would not be involved in a fatal accident until you are 78 years old. Those are pretty good odds."
So - PIA pilot or not? It will colour our judgement of your comments somewhat. We also prefer that journalists declare themselves clearly.
aterpster;
Its a small detail as the general site is known but regarding the Crash Site #'s 1 & 2, I don't think either fit when their lat/long is plotted in Google Earth.
Site #1, (see second graphic below), is on the other side of the mountain and shows no road in the area so I think it is not the right location.
Site #2 is closer but is almost at the top of the peak which is contrary to crash site photographs taken from the road, which generally show the crash site against the face of the mountain and not near the top. (The tip of the yellow "push pin" of the original crash site I plotted, is visible in the first graphic.)
The distance from the RN VOR to the crash site plotted originally is about 9.3nm.
When I plotted the site I originally posted, (Post #124), I used crash-site photographs to examine the amount of city visible and the mountain profile - the profiles in Google Earth aren't super-accurate but they're sufficient to plot a rough location given the view of the road and how certain curves and straightaways of the winding road "line up" when comparing the photos with the Google Earth theoretical site.
==============
The following is the "view" from crash site #2 - again, the terrain profiles are only approximate in Google Earth but here, even given the slightly higher elevation that the view is taken from in GE, the entire city is visible and that is not the case in the crash-site photographs.
This is another photo from the crash site looking SE, showing the road, fairly close to the hair-pin turn seen in the above graphic.
This is a view of all three theoretical crash sites plus the location of the Faisal Mosque.
This is a plan view of the area, from the airport, (RN VOR), to the 3 theoretical crash sites. The map is oriented on the runway heading; the track to crash site #1 and the original one I posted is about 330deg at about 9+ nm.
Its a small detail as the general site is known but regarding the Crash Site #'s 1 & 2, I don't think either fit when their lat/long is plotted in Google Earth.
Site #1, (see second graphic below), is on the other side of the mountain and shows no road in the area so I think it is not the right location.
Site #2 is closer but is almost at the top of the peak which is contrary to crash site photographs taken from the road, which generally show the crash site against the face of the mountain and not near the top. (The tip of the yellow "push pin" of the original crash site I plotted, is visible in the first graphic.)
The distance from the RN VOR to the crash site plotted originally is about 9.3nm.
When I plotted the site I originally posted, (Post #124), I used crash-site photographs to examine the amount of city visible and the mountain profile - the profiles in Google Earth aren't super-accurate but they're sufficient to plot a rough location given the view of the road and how certain curves and straightaways of the winding road "line up" when comparing the photos with the Google Earth theoretical site.
==============
The following is the "view" from crash site #2 - again, the terrain profiles are only approximate in Google Earth but here, even given the slightly higher elevation that the view is taken from in GE, the entire city is visible and that is not the case in the crash-site photographs.
This is another photo from the crash site looking SE, showing the road, fairly close to the hair-pin turn seen in the above graphic.
This is a view of all three theoretical crash sites plus the location of the Faisal Mosque.
This is a plan view of the area, from the airport, (RN VOR), to the 3 theoretical crash sites. The map is oriented on the runway heading; the track to crash site #1 and the original one I posted is about 330deg at about 9+ nm.
Last edited by PJ2; 6th Aug 2010 at 17:34. Reason: Add crash site photograph of road
Guest
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: On the Beach
Posts: 3,336
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
pj2:
Makes sense; i.e. "my" crash site #2 but a bit lower on that hill.
Its a small detail as the general site is known but regarding the Crash Site #'s 1 & 2, I don't think either fit when their lat/long is plotted in Google Earth.
Originally Posted by gtaflyer
Both occured as a result of bad weather, resulting in possible loss of situational awareness and deviation fron SOPs.
whichever way one looks at this one thing seems to stare us in the face and that is that this is a human error rearing its ugly head once again and not one involving aircraft technical failure as far as i am aware.
maybe the people that train in PIA AND AIRBLUE are from same airforce backgrounds so much so that they really are the wrong stuff for airline material.
From an CRM perpective the experience gradient is all too true and familiar in this case of an experienced captain (whose attitude is i can do everything cos i flew fighter jets all by myself) and the 300 hour f/o who dare even to to question the former.
How can a F/O ever question a senior captain or put it more simply why did airblue OR GOVERNMENT CAA allow such an experince gradient to exist in the cockpit in the first place ? and should there be a cover pilot in the third seat in such situations?
Perhaps Pakistan we need to review and learn from the past mishaps before we can even consider going forward.The eyes of the world are once again upon this troubled nation
I share the grief of the families who have lost there loved ones, and deepest condolences..ALLAH DE MARZI to all whome have lost there loved ones on the airblue flight and also from the recent floods in the region
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: Arizona USA
Posts: 8,571
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Hopefully more than just Pakistan will learn something from this mishap to help air safety in general.
Why?
Because, airlines will continue to look to 'automation' to solve all their accident problems, whereas....good old fashioned hand flying skills (and the training required...IE: not cost effective, so many airline claim
) will be more than likely rejected...with the results we see today...with the 'automated' aircraft.
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Virginia USA
Posts: 33
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
BOAC,
Boy! You are really 'on my case' as the Americans say and are spoiling my day -- which has been nice despite late-afternoon T-storms.
Please type in FINANCIAL POST, PAKISTAN and go to 'Letters to the Editor' where I briefly speak of myself. I changed the wordings a little bit because obviously I don't want to use the same exact words in another newspaper -- even if I take no money from anyone and they hold no propriety rights over my words.
I HATE talking about myself. "Putting on the medals" as someone called it.
Go to History of PIA and then to Forums. I don't introduce myself. I just write -- try and put some balance into the discussion. They are very knowledgeable about aircraft types and the engines fitted on them, cycles and hours and stuff like that but their aviation/safety issues understanding is quite mediocre -- with exceptions as always. I write and gently try and correct them. Inevitably, someone will come back all aggressive and ask "Where YOU in that cockpit? If not, how do YOU know"?
I keep quiet.
If you want I can direct you to another paper -- which is a joint venture of the International Herald Tribune and a local Pakistani paper. There a Capt. for Shaheen Foundation (run by the Air Force boys) held forth on what happened to #202. I did NOT put on the medals or an air of superiority but tried to correct a few of his points. I know Shaheen only flies a 737-200 so he is guessing about the Airbus.
I may have written elsewhere but I cannot recall.
Most of what I write these days is on economics which is my second passion. I write for five Pakistani papers and three think-tanks. I take no payment from any of them -- and my family thinks I am completely daft.
I wish to say to you that in all my years (and I am an oldie now) no one in Pakistan, the US or the UK where I have lived has ever challenged my integrity. Coming from a country which is sadly ranked very high on the Transparency International Corruption Index, that is no small accomplishment and I am very proud of being the exception. My late father was one of the most outstanding civil servants Pakistan has produced in 62 years and was, amongst other things, Minister of Defense and therefore in-charge of PIA and CAA. No one in his 45 years of service would dare, or has dared, raise a finger at him even though he has been gone for 20 years and dead people, like dead pilots, don't talk.
I would give you his name but I feel I would be desecrating his memory by doing so to a complete stranger. I hope you understand my reticence.
Since you doubt me and I feel uncomfortable with that thought, it is best I take my leave. It has been great logging in here and listening to you guys (I don't think they are any women around). I have learnt a lot and had a lot of fun too.
BOAC, prattle on about curved DME arc versus circle-to-land approaches. If someone was only watching the DME, curved, straight, circle or not, this accident would not have happened. So what is your beef?
I have to write about the economic costs of the floods in Pakistan that have displaced 3.5 million people and damaged vital infrastructure.
Before I end, I do remember as a young boy the BOAC Comet I visit to Dacca, then East Pakistan. I think they lost one on take-off at Karachi because for some reason the take-off on the Comet I was very challenging.
Mikal (NOT, like EVERYONE else here my real name).
Boy! You are really 'on my case' as the Americans say and are spoiling my day -- which has been nice despite late-afternoon T-storms.
Please type in FINANCIAL POST, PAKISTAN and go to 'Letters to the Editor' where I briefly speak of myself. I changed the wordings a little bit because obviously I don't want to use the same exact words in another newspaper -- even if I take no money from anyone and they hold no propriety rights over my words.
I HATE talking about myself. "Putting on the medals" as someone called it.
Go to History of PIA and then to Forums. I don't introduce myself. I just write -- try and put some balance into the discussion. They are very knowledgeable about aircraft types and the engines fitted on them, cycles and hours and stuff like that but their aviation/safety issues understanding is quite mediocre -- with exceptions as always. I write and gently try and correct them. Inevitably, someone will come back all aggressive and ask "Where YOU in that cockpit? If not, how do YOU know"?
I keep quiet.
If you want I can direct you to another paper -- which is a joint venture of the International Herald Tribune and a local Pakistani paper. There a Capt. for Shaheen Foundation (run by the Air Force boys) held forth on what happened to #202. I did NOT put on the medals or an air of superiority but tried to correct a few of his points. I know Shaheen only flies a 737-200 so he is guessing about the Airbus.
I may have written elsewhere but I cannot recall.
Most of what I write these days is on economics which is my second passion. I write for five Pakistani papers and three think-tanks. I take no payment from any of them -- and my family thinks I am completely daft.
I wish to say to you that in all my years (and I am an oldie now) no one in Pakistan, the US or the UK where I have lived has ever challenged my integrity. Coming from a country which is sadly ranked very high on the Transparency International Corruption Index, that is no small accomplishment and I am very proud of being the exception. My late father was one of the most outstanding civil servants Pakistan has produced in 62 years and was, amongst other things, Minister of Defense and therefore in-charge of PIA and CAA. No one in his 45 years of service would dare, or has dared, raise a finger at him even though he has been gone for 20 years and dead people, like dead pilots, don't talk.
I would give you his name but I feel I would be desecrating his memory by doing so to a complete stranger. I hope you understand my reticence.
Since you doubt me and I feel uncomfortable with that thought, it is best I take my leave. It has been great logging in here and listening to you guys (I don't think they are any women around). I have learnt a lot and had a lot of fun too.
BOAC, prattle on about curved DME arc versus circle-to-land approaches. If someone was only watching the DME, curved, straight, circle or not, this accident would not have happened. So what is your beef?
I have to write about the economic costs of the floods in Pakistan that have displaced 3.5 million people and damaged vital infrastructure.
Before I end, I do remember as a young boy the BOAC Comet I visit to Dacca, then East Pakistan. I think they lost one on take-off at Karachi because for some reason the take-off on the Comet I was very challenging.
Mikal (NOT, like EVERYONE else here my real name).
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Wythenshawe
Posts: 126
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Shame
Meekal,
No one was doubting the integrity of your father. Of course not.
However disputatious discussions on this site abound. I am sad that you feel the need to leave, as I think your contributions were honest and valuable.
Perhaps you could re-consider. (I don't know what BOAC's beef is either)
After all, I think that you may be in the best position to institute a proper inquiry into the ED accident.
Bloggs.
No one was doubting the integrity of your father. Of course not.
However disputatious discussions on this site abound. I am sad that you feel the need to leave, as I think your contributions were honest and valuable.
Perhaps you could re-consider. (I don't know what BOAC's beef is either)
After all, I think that you may be in the best position to institute a proper inquiry into the ED accident.
Bloggs.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 349
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The following is the "view" from crash site #2 - again, the terrain profiles are only approximate in Google Earth but here, even given the slightly higher elevation that the view is taken from in GE, the entire city is visible and that is not the case in the crash-site photographs.
-drl
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: on the ragged edge
Posts: 80
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Meekal
Hey Meekal,
Please don't be offended by, shall we say, some of our gruffer "Wheelchair-Aviators" in this forum who clearly have no experience with electric jets, but still feel a need to wear four bars rolling around in the nursing home. They mean well; they are just trying, like all of us, to flesh out lines of inquiry in the face of nothing to go on. I find myself becoming more and more like them eveyday!
I think your contributions are some of the best in the thread. We have gained insight into the proceedures, terrain and some of the culture of CAA/PIA/Airblue. If you were the son of the Defense Minister, then although maybe not rated, it would not surprise me at all if you had flown a few of Pakistan's best birds.
I would like to ask you to stay, Meekal. I would also like to ask you a favor. Perhaps by some inadvertent accident, someone you know might leak the CVR recording to Wikileaks or Youtube.
Though terribly unfortunate, if that were to happen, you might learn of it, let us know, and prevent this sort of tragedy from happening again. The CVR of Adam Air in Indonesia which was covered up by investigators, appeared on Youtube, and made it clear it was a spacial disorientation accident by the Captain. It was caused by the crew selecting both sides of attitude info to the bad IRU.
Had it not leaked, local investigators might not have had the courage to even finish the report.
These are all just my opinions only,
Cheers,
CC
Please don't be offended by, shall we say, some of our gruffer "Wheelchair-Aviators" in this forum who clearly have no experience with electric jets, but still feel a need to wear four bars rolling around in the nursing home. They mean well; they are just trying, like all of us, to flesh out lines of inquiry in the face of nothing to go on. I find myself becoming more and more like them eveyday!
I think your contributions are some of the best in the thread. We have gained insight into the proceedures, terrain and some of the culture of CAA/PIA/Airblue. If you were the son of the Defense Minister, then although maybe not rated, it would not surprise me at all if you had flown a few of Pakistan's best birds.
I would like to ask you to stay, Meekal. I would also like to ask you a favor. Perhaps by some inadvertent accident, someone you know might leak the CVR recording to Wikileaks or Youtube.
Though terribly unfortunate, if that were to happen, you might learn of it, let us know, and prevent this sort of tragedy from happening again. The CVR of Adam Air in Indonesia which was covered up by investigators, appeared on Youtube, and made it clear it was a spacial disorientation accident by the Captain. It was caused by the crew selecting both sides of attitude info to the bad IRU.Had it not leaked, local investigators might not have had the courage to even finish the report.
These are all just my opinions only,
Cheers,
CC
Per Ardua ad Astraeus
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: UK
Posts: 18,579
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
OK - my 'beef'
1) PPrune has always 'expected' those in the media, especially those who write for newspapers and cut and past PPrune forum comments on other fora to declare themselves.
2) All through Meekal's post we have the 'hint' that he might have operated as an airline pilot (in PIA) and knows how to fly these procedures - I see Meekal has also been active (moderating?) on a flt sim forum too which may explain some of this. Even 'examiner.com' has been confused
An example of a 'Walter Mitty' experience is here
3) Seeds of confusion have been planted thereby
From his Tribune articles:
It would now appear that Meekal used the wrong words through lack of understanding of the correct ones, but in so doing has not helped to cast any light on this accident here.
As for
he obviously has a short memory because the comment was NOT addressed to him as he conceded to the poster ('temporal' on another forum) "OK, fine. Sorry I misunderstood."
Now - you may have a large axe to grind against the current government of Pakistan, and therefore Mr Blogg's suggestion "you may be in the best position to institute a proper inquiry into the ED accident" would be a bit of a non-starter.
'Leave' if you must. Personally I would rather see all contributors continue in an open and honest manner, contributing facts or 'reports' to this puzzle in line with the excellent work of others.
Lastly, dragging his father into all of this perplexes me - it is irrelevant.
On the subject of the accident, I read that the a/c crashed in a left turn and was thought to have impacted at 3000'MSL.
1) PPrune has always 'expected' those in the media, especially those who write for newspapers and cut and past PPrune forum comments on other fora to declare themselves.
2) All through Meekal's post we have the 'hint' that he might have operated as an airline pilot (in PIA) and knows how to fly these procedures - I see Meekal has also been active (moderating?) on a flt sim forum too which may explain some of this. Even 'examiner.com' has been confused
Airline pilot Meekal Ahmed described it this way.
There was this one guy who really terrified me.
Coming in to land at AMS from the south he kept saying "he is bringing us in from the north" as if to enlighten me.
Talk of spatial/situational unawareness.
When I asked if he wanted the automatics on for the ILS he said "no, I failed my last check-ride", or something to that effect. He was all over the place, weaving back and forth, hand-flying and the controller asked us "Pakistan XXX, are you established"?
All I could say was "Sir, we are establishing right now".
Well, his actual touch-down was featherlight with no excessive flare and probably the best I have experienced!
Coming in to land at AMS from the south he kept saying "he is bringing us in from the north" as if to enlighten me.
Talk of spatial/situational unawareness.
When I asked if he wanted the automatics on for the ILS he said "no, I failed my last check-ride", or something to that effect. He was all over the place, weaving back and forth, hand-flying and the controller asked us "Pakistan XXX, are you established"?
All I could say was "Sir, we are establishing right now".
Well, his actual touch-down was featherlight with no excessive flare and probably the best I have experienced!
If he was doing a back-course to 12, he would be nowhere near the hills either. They would be well to his left.
So, since he did hit the hills, he must have been executing the circle-to-land DME arc for 12. I have done that at least 20 times from the front and the back of the bus.
It is not unsafe per-se but you need to stay alert because you need to approach on 30 and then break away and fly parallel downwind to the Margalla hills and swing around for a back-course landing on 12. No margin for error though.
So, since he did hit the hills, he must have been executing the circle-to-land DME arc for 12. I have done that at least 20 times from the front and the back of the bus.
It is not unsafe per-se but you need to stay alert because you need to approach on 30 and then break away and fly parallel downwind to the Margalla hills and swing around for a back-course landing on 12. No margin for error though.
or if the hills are shrouded in low clouds as they were that fateful day, he stays within an arc (which is drawn from a point at the airport). This arc is clearly displayed on the navigation display (ND) as a curved line. I do not recall the distance of the arc from the airport but obviously the arc is calculated to keep the plane clear of the surrounding high terrain.
I know the ILS is on 30 while 12 has the “back-course” approach which is non-precision.
As for
I write and gently try and correct them. Inevitably, someone will come back all aggressive and ask "Where YOU in that cockpit? If not, how do YOU know"?
Now - you may have a large axe to grind against the current government of Pakistan, and therefore Mr Blogg's suggestion "you may be in the best position to institute a proper inquiry into the ED accident" would be a bit of a non-starter.
'Leave' if you must. Personally I would rather see all contributors continue in an open and honest manner, contributing facts or 'reports' to this puzzle in line with the excellent work of others.
Lastly, dragging his father into all of this perplexes me - it is irrelevant.
On the subject of the accident, I read that the a/c crashed in a left turn and was thought to have impacted at 3000'MSL.
Join Date: May 2010
Location: EU
Age: 82
Posts: 5,505
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Mikal,
Please stay, as you now stay as a journalist and now we know that. You write well, very well indeed; here and elsewhere. Bring in all the experience you have and guide us through the issues in Pakistan - where you are, no doubt, better than anyone here.
What took some of us aback was that you presented direct experiences as they had been yours. This we really do not like. Not at all. There must be a difference between artists' freedom and factual reporting. Please take no offense of others taking offense of your conduct in this.
Reg (not my real name, because of personal reasons)
PS: Maybe strictly taken not "journalist" (an IMF Advisor, maybe still) but a person looking for information to publish elsewhere, which is close enough.
Please stay, as you now stay as a journalist and now we know that. You write well, very well indeed; here and elsewhere. Bring in all the experience you have and guide us through the issues in Pakistan - where you are, no doubt, better than anyone here.
What took some of us aback was that you presented direct experiences as they had been yours. This we really do not like. Not at all. There must be a difference between artists' freedom and factual reporting. Please take no offense of others taking offense of your conduct in this.
Reg (not my real name, because of personal reasons)
PS: Maybe strictly taken not "journalist" (an IMF Advisor, maybe still) but a person looking for information to publish elsewhere, which is close enough.
Last edited by RegDep; 7th Aug 2010 at 08:35. Reason: Added PS
Per Ardua ad Astraeus
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: UK
Posts: 18,579
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Now I have been 'trawling' the various fora, this post by 'Evan' elsewhere produced this interesting theory.
"I can see the runway and the hills......................................"?????
I feel my money is going that way, and I could probably draft a CVR transcript for you. It may even have been the 'inexperienced' F/O who initiated the pull up?
Ok, theory time:
I've noticed a smaller, decommissioned airstrip alongside the Islamabad Hwy, about 30° off from RWY 30 (red line on my diagram). Is is possible that, after breaking off the RWY30 approach at the VOR and heading away at a 45° vector, the fatigued and/or distracted crew neglected to make the downwind turn in time to come abeam the runway, and, in poor daylight visibility with broken clouds subsequently mistook the older airstrip for OPRN? If so, this would have them heading directly for the Margalla Hills, yet they would still report having the runway in sight. As the hills rapidly came into view (after the last radio transmission), they would attempt to climb and possibly veer off to clear the ridge, but not in time...
It seems unlikely, but if this was a purely visual procedure under stress, and something was distracting them, not impossible.
Total speculation, but I can't help myself.
I've noticed a smaller, decommissioned airstrip alongside the Islamabad Hwy, about 30° off from RWY 30 (red line on my diagram). Is is possible that, after breaking off the RWY30 approach at the VOR and heading away at a 45° vector, the fatigued and/or distracted crew neglected to make the downwind turn in time to come abeam the runway, and, in poor daylight visibility with broken clouds subsequently mistook the older airstrip for OPRN? If so, this would have them heading directly for the Margalla Hills, yet they would still report having the runway in sight. As the hills rapidly came into view (after the last radio transmission), they would attempt to climb and possibly veer off to clear the ridge, but not in time...
It seems unlikely, but if this was a purely visual procedure under stress, and something was distracting them, not impossible.
Total speculation, but I can't help myself.
"I can see the runway and the hills......................................"?????
I feel my money is going that way, and I could probably draft a CVR transcript for you. It may even have been the 'inexperienced' F/O who initiated the pull up?
Last edited by BOAC; 7th Aug 2010 at 09:01.
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Istanbul, Turkiye
Posts: 47
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I have to completely agree with BOAC about Meekal. From the beginning of the thread, the wording and expressions in his messages seemed to hint towards being an airline pilot with years and years of experience. I went back just as BOAC did and re-read the thread, concentrating on Meekal's posts especially to see if I was mistaken.
Obviously we jump to assume things when reading on a forum with 'Professional Pilots' in its name and I wanted to make sure it wasn't just us presuming he was from the technical nature of his posts. I kept telling myself that he could've been riding the jumpseat for most of the messages relating to being in the cockpit until I got to the message about talking with the ATC.
I'd be interested in reading that just out of sheer curiosity. It seems plausible but as always from the beginning of this thread the same "how could it happen?" question looms. Unfortunately for most accidents of this nature it is not one mistake but rather a series of mistakes or occurrences that coincide simultaneously.
Obviously we jump to assume things when reading on a forum with 'Professional Pilots' in its name and I wanted to make sure it wasn't just us presuming he was from the technical nature of his posts. I kept telling myself that he could've been riding the jumpseat for most of the messages relating to being in the cockpit until I got to the message about talking with the ATC.
Originally Posted by BOAC
I could probably draft a CVR transcript for you
Per Ardua ad Astraeus
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: UK
Posts: 18,579
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Well, like everything else, guesswork.I will refrain for posting a 'CVR Transcript' attempt as a mark of respect.
However, I do see 'Evan's' theory as the best we have yet.
Right turn off the ILS at MDA (or above)
A 'left turn' onto downwind'
Sight of 'runway'. Too close in really but vis is err........ poor.....
Left turn onto final, blowing through with strong 'slackening' wind.
The rest?
There must have been some question mark in P2's head, and I assume the sight of a large city under the base leg would have clinched it for him, but too late.
Summary - 'disorientation' of at least one pilot.
However, I do see 'Evan's' theory as the best we have yet.
Right turn off the ILS at MDA (or above)
A 'left turn' onto downwind'
Sight of 'runway'. Too close in really but vis is err........ poor.....
Left turn onto final, blowing through with strong 'slackening' wind.
The rest?
There must have been some question mark in P2's head, and I assume the sight of a large city under the base leg would have clinched it for him, but too late.
Summary - 'disorientation' of at least one pilot.
