rse

With pressure on operators from fuel prices/global warming etc what do fellow pilots make of reports about the world running out of crude oil? I saw another on the bbc site last week about there being a (pessimistic) view of 30yrs supply left? Though well before this point, the increasing costs of extracting the little left will make air travel affordable for the very-rich only. Makes you wonder doesn't it? With air traffic figures likely to outgrow efficiency and technology (e.g. wingets, more efficient engines) does this seem like scaremongering or conservatism to you?
RSE

anybodyatall

Peak Oil Theory... see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

Is it valid? I believe so. Is fossil fuel running out? Most certainly. 30 years? Could be, but depends upon many factors. And another nasty problem: political unrest in oil producing nations. It's one thing to have oil, but another to get it when guns are pointed at you.

I think Alberta, Canada's tar (oil) sands projects are going to be worth a mint soon, as Canada is a stable country, and there be plenty of oil in them thar sands that the people want! Extraction costs are going down, so it's becoming economically viable compared to drilling for oil the old fashioned way.

How does it effect pilots (today's and the future)? Well, the bean counters are less likely to want you to fly much beyond econo mode these days. Cost indexes are so important now, whereas when I flew, it was about speed as fuel was much cheaper then...

crazypilot

Interestingly, the air traffic forecasts by Boeing, Airbus etc show air travel increasing somewhat exponentially over the next 20 years - however, many believe that we are at the peak now and that the rising costs will in fact see the industry starting to decline in size in the not to distant future. Food for thought.

CP

hazehoe

Looks like 100 to 200 years,most country's are over there peak(of the known value today) or will do so in the next 10 years, sand oil and other "hard to get" oil will become financially interesting with the increasing prices ,good read about this, who is using oil at which rate ,who has the right to certain oil,how much is China going to use in 2025 etc etc ,Crude:The Story of oil by Sonia Shah .
Guess who's on top of the list with about 29 million barrels a day

Rainboe

When I started paid employment as a pilot in 1970, people were telling me then 'oil was running out'. Over the last 35 years, they have constantly been saying it. Now with pprune, they are saying it more and more and it's 'in your face' because this site is so widely read and it seems so much more believable. They are saying it now. And all the time, reserves are being located. So they may not be as accessible and costs of extracting may be a lot higher, but the costs of those new methods of extraction will fall as those techniques become more widespread. We're going to see more generally expensive oil just like we are constantly seeing more expensive and wide ranging taxation. If you want to fly, fly- stop listening to these daft doomsayers. They've been banging on like that since the last war (the big one)- how many times do they have to be wrong to be disbelieved?

barit1

I recall a 2-hr TV special in 1973-74 to the effect that "there is no future for natural gas" - the proven reserves were "close to depletion". Further to this end, there was an embargo on new homes using natural gas for the next decade.

But guess what? The resulting price increase spurred new exploration. It was now economical to liquify waste natural gas from Dubai wells and ship to many markets. The embargoes were lifted; the proven reserves were suddenly much larger than anticipated.

For another similar economics lesson, see the Simon-Ehrlich wager story.

411A

Well lets see...
The al Hassa basin in Saudi Arabia has produced oil since it was discovered there in 1938, at Dhahran.
About 15 years ago a comprehensive exploratory study was done on the Rhub al Khali (empty quarter) of Saudi Arabia, and the proven plus estimated reserves located there were found to be approximately eight times the production thus far in the al Hassa basin, and this without secondary recovery (water or gas injection).
In addition, oil in rather vast quantities has been recently discovered in Mauritania, among other places.

Oil running out?

Not any time soon.

Old Smokey

Oil is definately running out, it is a finite resource.

The most recent information I've heard on the topic was last night (BBC) where it was stated that about 50% of the world's KNOWN oil resources have been used. Even at 4 times the rate of the world's use of the last 100 years, that gives us about 25 years to find a viable alternative.

Nazi Germany did not have 25 years to find a viable alternative, as their access to oil reserves vanished, their programme of synthetic liquid fuel production from coal was completely successful, although delivering insufficient quantities by war's end.

Synthetic liquid fuel production from coal is very expensive, but the gap between it's cost and 'natural' oil is narrowing daily. Use of this source alone in the future will cause a major change in fuel prices, and economies will have to re-adjust, but they will because they have to.

The world has FAR more Coal reserves than it ever had oil reserves.

As 411A says, "Not any time soon".

Regards,

Old Smokey

Re-Heat

Won't run out.

Why? Price will govern the rate at which it is used. Countries extracting it are not mugs, and market prices rise accordingly where demand outstrips supply.

High price will make extraction of Rocky Mountain oil sands economic, resulting in more oil for all.

Faire d'income

In fact it is now a lot cheaper than the current oil prices. The problem is pollution. If the most pessimistic projection is accurate they have 30 years to extract a clean cheap fuel from coal.

Q: What countries have the biggest coal reserves?

A: All the western powers as well as places like China have up to 300 years supply.

Q: What coal reserves do the current oil producers in the middle east have?

A: None.

Stall Inducer

I've heard varying arguments, One of our Captains has set up a web site www.oildecline.com and firlmy believes we are at or near peak oil production, after which we will have soring energy costs and massive global recession. Many peak oil theorist also believe that there is no viable alternative energy sources.
On the flip side I have read about Hyrogen economies and clean burning coal technology by decarbonising the emissions and pumping the CO2 back into the North sea gas fields. BP are investing in this with a new power station in Scotland - although at present from what I understand Hydrogen has to be extracted by means of electolysis - which more often than not requires fossil fules to power the proccess on any large scale.
Interesting topic and would be interested to hear what others know / think

Wycombe

Have seen lots of talk about lots of oil under the South Atlantic, close to some well-known UK-dependant Islands. It will be difficult and costly to extract, but when the prices make it economically viable, it'll happen.

crazypilot

Interesting fact(?) that I heard recently was that the emirate of Abu Dhabi [UAE] makes enough money in 45 minutes of oil production to provide the entire Government spending for the year.
AD still has a fair handful of oil to sell... it's just places like Dubai which are drying up so are focussing on new methods of income...ie turning the place into La La Land.

What concerns me is that these new airplane engines being developed [like R-R Trent 1000 etc] are still fuel-from-oil powered at the end of the day and they aren't looking too heavily into fuel cells/other forms of power as far as I know. If the 787s/A350s aren't coming out for another 3-4 years, give them a 25-year lifespan in passenger service and then another 10 years as freighters maybe, that's another 40 years or so from now, I still reckon it will be a different place [wrt oil, fuel etc].

Interesting topic.

barit1

Jet engines will still be fueled by JetA1 or similar - although at some point it will be economical to synthesize it from tar sands, biomass, who knows? The point is that existing engines will keep running.

Then, at some later time, we'll have a breakthrough in either methane or hydrogen production, and new engine designs will show up to use these fuels.
(Didn't Herr von Ohain run his first bench tests using hydrogen fuel IIRC?)

BTW - gaseous fuels like H2 or CH4 are very easy to burn, and first-generation turbines would probably change very little except for the larger fuel plumbing. As later designs are optimized, the combustor (and thus the overall engine length) gets shorter and lighter.

The aeroplanes will then have to change a LOT because fuel density is very low, so the volume required is LARGE. I saw one proposal for a 747-based H2 machine (this was in the 73-74 aero magazines); the upper deck was extended full length and much enlarged in cross-section, and was one huge SuperGuppy-like H2 tank.

barit1

According to Geology journal, a frozen methane field has been discovered off the S. Cal. coast.

And given the methane finds throughout the Solar System, is it possible that such a find on Earth is not of biological origin?

PAXboy

Whether you believe that the oil production peak is upon us or far into the future - the only constant is that the price will continue to go up. The Americans are just beginning to realise that SUVs that manage 10 mpg are not such a neat idea but it will take them a long time to learn that across the whole country. It has been said that, if they improved the mpg of their vehicles by 10%, they could cut their dependency on the Middle East. I doubt that change will happen anytime soon.

Who would like to lay a bet between our planet being overtaken by global warming and the oil running out and so we stop heating the place up?

barit1

It will be a rerun of this bet.

steamchicken

Far better than trying to build an aircraft with huge insulated H2 tanks..use the H2 to make methanol. The other reagent is carbon monoxide. If you're getting the H2 from a Solar Zinc process, the waste product is CO. Just pour it in the existing fleet and bob's yer uncle.

Get the carbon input to the SOLZINC from biomass (fast-growing Miscanthus grass, say) and the whole thing's CO2 neutral.

anybodyatall

I think we'll go back to using Zeppelins, but with solar panels powering electric motors driving prop-fans