Professional Pilot Training (includes ground studies)A forum for those on the steep path to that coveted professional licence. Whether studying for the written exams, training for the flight tests or building experience here's where you can hang out.
WWW, I have to laugh every time I log in and read some young persons quote that it'll get better, it's not as bad as all that, things will turn around etc etc.
Don't they get it yet? This is going to be hell on earth, and not just for wannabe pilots. Boeing plan to cut HOW MANY JOBS???? No virgin pay rises this year. BA lose millions. Deeper and deeper we fall, Brown and Darling must be sh*tting in their pants about the legacy they'll leave. Or maybe not?
Maybe they should make the coffee stronger so it really does give off a more intense aroma on waking.
I can't wait to see where we are in June/July 2009. As for shotguns? It might just be a very good plan!
I'm all for realism, but the picture I see being painted is of the world going back a few hundred years. True survival of the fittest where we have to fight each other for food and shelter. Forgive me for being optimistic but I truly can't see that happening. At least your laughing, nothing worse than no sense of humour
Don't they get it yet? This is going to be hell on earth
Haha,
I hope you watched BBC's 'The City Uncovered with Evan Davis'.... It might help explain your sentiment which is typical in times like these. Us humans flock together and not only that when something bad happens to us cortisol makes us feel depressed and brings on bad thoughts further adding to the pessimistic outlook we take. It explains the reactions of city traders in bad and good times. They argued for more women in that profession to balance the testosterone driven male that gets over ambitious and over inflates the market, creating bubbles to be burst.
Take a step back and see the bigger picture..... ASDA to employ an extra 5000 people this year, announced today. Tesco = 10,000 and Morrison's = 5,000. Not to be sniffed at. New green energy technology coming in the future through the car industry and barges built across estuaries and lagoons. Us 'young persons' as you patronisingly put I'm sure will be spear heading these new industries just as your generation, I'm assuming your 40/50 odd, spurred the dot.com era....
My new gun cabinet is being delivered on Friday - is that too bearish dya' think?
WWW
Now WWW, did you fill in correctly the bit on your shotgun application/renewal that asks about depression etc? They really are quite strict about that these days!!...but there again,.. maybe causing depression doesn't count!!
Oh come off it, you're making me feel old at the grand old age of forty!
Whatever age you are right now, I can probably guarantee you'll never see the likes of this economic crisis in your lifetime. The fact you point out jobs in supermarkets looking rosy, shows your complete ignorance of the facts before you. So the supermarkets are the saviours from the economic crisis? Makes me wonder why GB and AD spent billions of taxpayers money propping up the banks then? Our kids will be affected by this during their working lifetime I think.
Oh, hang on, so you can have thousands of checkout people in many new supermarkets. Great. I'm so glad the crisis is now over then. We obviously don't need manufacturng anymore as no-one is buying anything. We only need to be able to pop down to tescos/asda etc to get the shopping from now on and to hell with a stable economic climate.
Green transport? Come off it. We're years away from all driving eco cars. You'll still need the existing coal powered power stations to charge the batteries. No nuclear reactors on the horizon for a few years yet.
I'm considering myself one of the lucky ones with a flying job for now. Wonder how long it will last. Surely the gas in the North Sea will last another couple of years yet?
How many of those jobs are part time, over what period of time will these jobs be created, and what salaries will these people be paid? An announcment is one thing, actually employing these people is something altogether different. By that I mean it's good on the face of it, i.e. the announcment creates positive publicity of said companies but i'll bet if you look at the detail you'll find things are nothing like as rosy as they seem. It's a tactic this government have done to death. Everytime there is bad news, rehash something already announced and then re-announce it to be seen to be doing something. Aside from that, and as helimutt has pointed out above, these jobs are going to do **** all in helping a truly broken economy and a bankrupt country to recover. I honestly don't think most people understand just what the IMF have suggested today. They are saying that the recession in the UK will be far and away the worst in the developed world, and that it will probably take until 2040 to get the UK's public finances back to where they were in 2007. Even if they've only half right we're completly buggered. If they're completely right we are in for a serious, serious reality check.
This 'green industry' future everyone keeps tooling on about will probably never happen, and if it does it won't be on anything like the scale being predicted, in the same way that air travel will NEVER grow to levels suggested. Sooner or later people will begin to realise they're being hoodwinked by their governments and 'global warming' is just a load of old cobblers, a new thing to fear so that paying taxes is a little less painful. Even the green lobby are now turning against environmental projects, the sea power generator to be built in the Severn as a case in point.
Finally, the day I take any notice of what Evan Davies has to say about anything will be the day i'll pack it all in, give it all up and take myself off to Beachy Head.
Ah you chaps, you're like sheep. 'Complete ignorance' eh? One thing you at least should have noticed in the last 6 months is the total failure of the massed financial experts of the western world to predict anything more than 6 inches from their noses or six hours in the future with a success rate greater than 50%. Anyone who says 'this will happen' with confidence has completely failed to learn the lessons of history - most of it recent - and deserves the label 'ignorant' for the hubris alone. A big dose of humility would be appropriate for most of the 'experts' here.
The post by Bealzebub on Page 87 is the most cogent, accurate and sober summary of this thread I have seen.
To be honest I am amazed the weakness of the pound has not got more commentary on this thread. It is 30% more expensive to go anywhere in Europe or the US.... have you been to Europe recently.. £4-5 a pint!! Even poor old Boris Johnson was moaning about the cost of the Johnson family ski holiday.
I think a significant amount of people will decide to holiday in the UK. I don't understand why everyone thinks "Joe Public WILL always go on his/her week in the sun".... not if they are scared for their job or have already lost it. Anyone care to explain the logic?? What % of Easy and Ryanairs flights are to Euro denominated countries??
My firm has cancelled all non-essential travel and moved all non-intercontinental travel to low cost economy fares. We are one of BAs biggest customers. Also our headcount is down from 33k at its peak to 21k.... and we are still cutting. We are still in a steepening dive in this recession although I think some of the pilots have now worked out how serious our predicament is and started to pull back on the control column..... I reckon we bottom out Q4 2009, Q1 2010...... then I will wager we will have the mother of all inflation problems.... there will no be no more than a handful of pilot jobs around for years and years.
Heh - the problem with all the armchair experts here is you all have WAY too much time on your hands, and as a result read into everything 110%, overcomplicate matters and as a result give off ever such a bitter vibe of sour grapes.
A close friend of mine who is a teacher of Economics now, following a very successful career as head economic advisor to Morrison's during the recession of the early nineties said to me one evening recently, and I quote, "This has been blown far out of proportion. The UK economy needs a couple of years to reattain equilibrium, but 99% of the depression we have is psychological. Consumer confidence. 2010 will bring brighter skies, and in 2011, the sun will be out again. That just leaves us with our always present problems, that always seem worse when a recession is upon us."
He also went on to tell me, "There are methods of control the government have over our domestic economy which aren't publicised. It will never be allowed to reach the oh so often called 'catastrophic proportions' mentioned on the news. People should worry for themselves, but not for the economy. The government is well equipped to look after itself, and part of the scam is forcing people to believe we're in trouble."
That's what a real (and very well connected) Economist has to say, away from the spotlights and cameras.
Take your pick, call bluff, whatever, that's what I've been told.
Heli-port sorry just to clarify was not a comment aimed at city folk just becoming pilots.
A lot of people in industry should be looking over their shoulders because the competition for their jobs is going to step up (a lot).
Also I see the CEO of Easyjet has apparently sold half of his total holding in the company's shares in the last few days!!! Now that is a vote of confidence in the outlook for this summer.
At the genesis of this thread's original thread I offered the opinion that there would be a house price crash. And further that the scale of it would approximate to the scale of the recession that would follow.
I stand by that correlation. Todays 1.3% (Nationwide) fall for Dec means that the UK now has the Longest fall, the Sharpest fall and the Deepest fall in house prices recorded. There are also no signs of abatement.
I therefore expect the recession to be the longest, sharpest and deepest recorded.
Its not really complicated but its a simple opinion to explain.
Commentary on the dismal science is filtered through a dizzying cloud of spin and vested interest and is notorious for it. Which is why I think it often pays a better dividend to study modern economic history closely. If the world is still broadly the same as it was the last time X occurred resulting in Y then todays Y may be predicted by looking at todays X..
Unfortunately for Wannabes your career is very closely and critically tied to the economic cycle over which you can have no influence.
"the UK now has the Longest fall, the Sharpest fall and the Deepest fall in house prices recorded"
This is symptomatic of the rubbish peddled as 'facts', I wouldn't mind except it is said with such confidence. Let's check this out by looking at the oft quoted Nationwide figures. Figures show to the end of 2008.
Longest fall? No. Raw prices fell from the third quarter of 1989 to the second quarter of 1993, three and a half years, and then stayed level-ish for a couple of years. The equivalent figures for this crash show a fall for only a year and a quarter.
Sharpest fall? Possibly, just. There's a 15% drop in 5 quarters to the end of 08. The first 5 quarters of the 1989 crash show a 13% drop. Not a big difference, though.
Deepest fall? No, the 1989 crash shows a 20% drop from peak to trough.
As a moderator, at least get your facts right before you put your 'Mad Max' hat on.
Also I see the CEO of Easyjet has apparently sold half of his total holding in the companies shares in the last few days!!! Now that is a vote of confidence in the outlook for this summer.
Reminds me of when I worked at Nortel in Canada back in 2000, when the then CEO John Roth sold virtually all his stock .......... just before it fell off the cliff edge ! It certainly does pay to keep an eye on what is happening. I only found this all out, like most, after the fact (watching the news weeks later showing aerial shots of his massive house and holdings). Do you think he had some insight into the fact something big was about to happen or was he just very lucky ? ...........Mmmmmmmmmmmm.
Alex-followed the link ref house prices. Most interesting is average price 1998 around the 65k mark. Average now around £165k.
Given that lending in 1998 was relatively sensible (3x salary etc) then the 1998 prices were reasonable. Taking the 3x salary as a guide (worked fine in the 'old days') then average salary needs to be around 55k, which is definitely not the case in the UK. Add in job losses and I think house prices generally will continue to fall. Much of consumer spending was based on the 'feel good' factor of their house value going up.
Jan 09 is now £150,501 from a peak in July 07 of £193,153. A 22.1% fall. As far as I can see the Nationwide figures for the last crash show a peak in Q3 1989 at £62,782 to a low of £50,168 so showing a 20.1% fall over 3 years.
Longest. Got me there. It isn't. Yet. Although todays Daily Telegraph thinks it is:
UK house prices fell for a fifteenth straight month in January - the longest run on record - as the deepening recession in the UK adds further downward pressure on the once booming market. Article continues..
I was thinking about this being a much longer recession than the early 90's (it was just two quarters then). Of course some Government Ministers are already seeing the green shoots of recovery and Margaret Becket the Housing Minister is saying that this is a very good year to buy..
This HPC is harder than the last one Alex. I think you probably agree the broad point.
Fair cop, I didn't include January, I just took the quarterly figures. I think all you can say so far - without quibbling about one or two percent - is that this crash looks very much like the last one except that, at this point in the cycle, the big drop in the last crash had just finished and the rate of fall was starting to reduce whereas this time we seem to be getting a more sustained steep drop.
I think we broadly agree, though, but you have to remember that the indicators from the past can be interpreted in a number of ways. The 1980 crash only shows up if you account for inflation, for instance. If you look at the raw prices they don't fall. Similarly the 1989 crash with inflation adjusted shows a fall, peak to trough, of 37%, nearly twice what we have seen so far.
There's also the issue of cause and effect. Does economic downturn follow house price crash? Is it the other way around or are they simultaneous events? You can theorise, of course, but I don't think you can justifiably draw such firm conclusions.
Even poor old Boris Johnson was moaning about the cost of the Johnson family ski holiday.
Linear Mode
