Professional Pilot Training (includes ground studies)A forum for those on the steep path to that coveted professional licence. Whether studying for the written exams, training for the flight tests or building experience here's where you can hang out.
With reference to the graph about house prices, the last downturn in the previous recession didn't have our current 340,000 demand for houses that are needed for our ever growing population..."basic fundamentals." Demand is currently far outweighing supply. The reason for Persimmon, whimpy and Barretts laying employees off is purely due to the mortgage lenders. Postponing building projects is the major difference to the previous downturn as the general consensus that once the money is there the downturn will be much shorter than the previous occasions.
Haven't been on PPRuNe for a while, to busy hammering the Bristol QB.
Is someone taking the piss with this thread title?!!? Upturn!!! Brilliant, pure genius. If there is an upturn in the next two years I will slam my knob in a car door.
Anyway back to studying seeing as I've paid for the exams I might as well do them. Glad I'm not saying "seeing as I've paid for the integrated course I might as well do it".
Jonjam (post144) has it right! The change in recent post-war morals has seen a startling increase in family split-ups. This, coupled with the general increase in housing-stock,plus the ageingand outmoded,energy-ineficient prewar and earlier housing, lead one to the obvious conclusion.
The housebuilding-capacity of this country (land AND logistics-that is, labour and materials supply) is barely adequate to fulfill the need for replacement,let alone increased demand (singletons occupying accomodation once housing a whole family)
The cretinous politician who decided that tenants of low-rent Council -housing,should have the right toa purchase subsidised by the rest of the ratepaying population, has a lot to answer for....local authorities no longer build estates,to sell at a loss .
Incidentally, jonjam, the company is WIMPEY.....legend has it,far from being "whimps",-it was an acronym for We Import More Paddies Each Year.
I've never heard that before! Fantastic...hope you don't mind if I use that...
mustflywillfly This thread was a tongue in cheek reply after a thread called "Growing Evidence The Downturn Is Upon Us" in an attempt to encourage some positivity...it worked don't you think..??!! So yes, a Micky take, so don't do the knob in the car door thing unless you really want to.
__________________ Regards JB007!
Flight Ops,Crewing and Dispatch Moderator
Hardly - right to buy homes are sold at market value.
The subsidy paid by the council is dependant on what you put in. If you pay £5 a week, and have done all your life - the discount is very little. If you have paid the full rate - you get a large discount.
Also, any upgrades and repairs paid by the council are deducted from this.
So, any subsidies, are likely to be very small - and in the long run probable saves the "ratepayer" - as the council no longer have to pay their rip-off contractors for sub standard repair jobs, or upgrade the houses - all this responsibility goes to the new homeowner, and the council/govt have no more to do with it.
And if you are implying that it is RTBs who are causing the shortage in housing then you are very wrong - most RTBs buy the house they have already inhabited - that nobody else would buy.
It's privatisation - no different to British Gas - or the railways. The govt is no longer responsible, saving itself money in the long run.
Maybe we should sack the cretinous govt leaders who allow people to buy multiple properties - cutting supply - and raising prices. And now - they are a major contributing factor of this credit crises. Maybe we should tackle that first?
No - it's the poor we need to target. Nothing changes - ey?
When Tony Blair entered Downing Street in 1997 there were around 30,000 Buy To Let mortgage approvals per annum in the UK. Last year there were 30,000 short of 1 million. That bit is different this time for sure. Every single one of those relies on capital appreciation as part of their financial proposition. With that prop removed they make no sense as yields are far less than money in the post office. As BTL portfolios are liquidated following insolvency the market is going to be swamped with distress sales.
Just look at any of the national property auctions and you'll see 50% losses going under the hammer by order of the mortgagees. Which is why rents are falling as those properties come back on the market for rents that only have to support half the mortgage finance cost.
Other than that its exactly the same as any house price bubble. Irrational investment made on leveraged debt.
There are no shortage of houses. People don't have to live alone. Poles don't have to stay in the country for jobs that no longer exist. Second homes are not essential. Holiday homes abroad make little sense for most without capital appreciation. The unwinding of the bubble is now apparent to most though a suprising number cling to the orthodoxy of the past decade.
What most still do not see is that for average prices to fall to normal average wage multiples of 3.5 you need a fall of 40%. This is inconceivable to many though it is true and essentially simple both to understand and to observe in the historical records.
The demand for houses is as unlimited as the demand for a Ferrari and private jet. The need and the ability to pay are totally different yet in a market they are the only arbiters of 'demand'.
The market is clearly signaling that prices are going to fall further and rationally buyers are sitting out the market as are lenders.
The rantings of the Vested Interests about lack of housing are being rightly ignored.
The debate has moved on from the housing market as, frankly, that one has been won by the bears. The debate now needs to be on the depth and length of the recession we are in. It is this, rather than the spot price of oil, which will determine the fate of the airline sector.
Even at todays oil price of double a year ago the fuel cost on a typical Ryanair flight to the South of France is only £30 per ticket. With oil at half the current price or double it then ticket cost need only move by a couple of tenners. Oil is therefore a sideshow.
The recession - the lack of people travelling at ANY price - compared to previous years is the REAL crisis facing the airlines.
I defy anyone contemplating a week in New York City to be put off by the £180 fuel surcharge when they'll spend that on the first night meal and a show. But a week in NYC on the razz when you're worried about your job, partners job, bonus or mortgage is easily deferred.
Same with low cost short breaks to Europe. I defy most people to not spend 10 times the airline ticket cost on parking, car hire, accommodation, sight seeing and dining. The flight cost is chicken feed but again, by deferring the whole trip the airlines will be crippled by their high fixed cost of unused capacity.
It was ever thus. An hour spent researching what happened to the airline industry and housing market in the 1990 - 1993 crash/recession is all you need to see the future of 2009/10.
2011/12 looks good though - as long as you are a long term optimist like me.
WWW
"We are in the worst trading environment the industry has ever faced," said Willie Walsh this week...
Another intelligent and informed post by WWW.
Ignoring the information that we are receiving on a daily basis from the likes of Willie Walsh and Mol is just ridiculous. BA profit has dropped 87% this first quarter, fuel cost will rise £1bn against last year possible the final fuel bill will reach the £3bn mark this year. Staff are soon to be asked if they would like to take unpaid leave and of course all recruitment has stopped. It’s all due to unprecedented oil prices, economic slowdown and a loss of consumer confidence. This problem is here to last for a few years.
I for one am stopping the flight-training phase of my route to an ATPL, the exam passes are valid for 3 years (just passed) so I have time to view the market and attempt to get reduced training costs when I feel that we are at the trough of the down turn…well that’s the plan. Fingers crossed everybody and tighten those financial seatbelts.
attempt to get reduced training costs when I feel that we are at the trough of the down turn
I suggested that this may be a possibility a while ago. Unfortunately I got shot down for suggesting it. The majority believe that training costs will go up due to increased fuel prices and operating costs. Still we live in hope.
I will be returning to my job (on a sabbatical at the mo) post CPL and do the IR part time. At least I will be looking for work in 2/3 years time and be debt free. I really dont see the point of rushing modular at the moment and signing up for an integrated would be bonkers.
Differcult to disagree with WWW post. Nice to think 2012 with the Olympics and a new govt well bedded in will be a turning point. If all fundermentals remain constsnt then I guess history is a good predictor of the future.
Only disagreement is with rentals, from what I see and read they seem to be a least holding and in many places rising. Possible exception will be spec. new build flats in the likes of Manchester.
Did I detect a scent of weiry boredom in WWW post with the constant negative forecasts, Maybe he, the press and the general populus will become fed up with being negative, and then sentiment will change and we will see some 'green shoots of recovery'.
SFT at Bournemouth offered IR courses for £10000 prior to their demise, how do I know this? They phoned me at home to offer this price just after I had finished the BCPL training with them. Luckily I had decided that flying was not where I wanted to go at that time in my life because soon afterwards they stopped trading.
So ignore the uninformed and wait for some price drops.... but make sure they are not about to bust when you pay up front...it has happened and will again.
I think smaller schools will have to put up their prices.
OAA et all - who charge double, for less flying (which is what costs the most - not the ground school) will be able to cut into their immense profit margin, and reduce the prices.
Then again, if they did, more people would train, and fewer would get a job. Their statistics would be less appealing then - as few people will gain employment.
Also, and this is OAA specific, with the latest rumour of BA suspending all recruitment now - they will be an even smaller percentage of OAA grads going to BA - and lets face it - it's the idea of being able to fly for BA that draws people in.
My sister bought an ex council house on the private market for £98,000
The bloke next door was given the opportunity to buy for £11,000!!!
BUT.....he was, and I quote,.. 'not prepared to give the bu**ers the satisfaction of ripping him off'!!!!!!!
There is another world out there who have not got a clue!!!!!
Yes - but chances are he has lived there for years, and in effect has been paying a "mortgage" on it for a long time.
It must vary from council to council, but certainly South Tyneside council do charge very close to the market value: about 10 years ago, people brought their houses for literally a few thousand Pounds. Also, a lot of empty properties were bought by outside BTLs.
My neighbour used her RTB last year - and it was valued at around £100k. She got around £25k (close to the maximum here) off the value to take in to account the 30 years worth of rent on the place - minus any major repairs paid by the council over the past 5 years.
So a guy getting a house for 11k is unusual - but it is certainly not being subsidised by the "rate payers". It's probably what the house is worth to them. Especilly considering the tennant may be there for 30/40 years, requireing maintenance and whathaveyou. Once he hits retirement, he may be entitled to a small reduction on rent (£4.22 in my Mother's case), meaning you outgoings stay the same, but the revenue reduces - in some cases, down TO £5 a week!!!
All so our lovely geordie slappers, with their 6 "bairns" can live the life of Riley in the best quality homes the Council here can provide them,
General expectation appears to be prices falling below $100 per barrel by the end of the year. Reports suggest the recent Turkish pipeline shutdown and tropical storm Edoaurd caused little or no change to yesterdays prices which suggests a far cry from the volatile price spikes of last month. Decreasing US and general worldwide demand, coupled with ecenomic slowdown, appears to be pushing prices in the right direction. The situation is still far from healthy but the scaremongering predictions of $200 per barrel by the end of the year appear to have fallen flat.
Ford American now investing money in cheap fuel efficient car design, says it all. Perhaps the US has finally had its wake up call to energy consumption.
Everyone needs to wake up and stop dreaming in LA LA land about being in the upturn. We are in a serious downturn at the moment, and there will be no upturn for atleast 1 whole year!
In the meantime, save your hard earned money and go MODULAR if you havn't yet started training. I wouldnt advise anyone to go integrated.
Oxford Graduates recommended to :
Ryanair
British Airways
Flybe
British Airways no longer recruiting, Ryanair will be minimising recruitment in the near future and Flybe will probably slow down recruitment in a few months time. The winter looks very very bad for job prospects.
Thats the facts, like it, hate it, ignore it. Your choice, your money and your life. Save your hard earned cash, get a PPL and then review the situation once you have the license.
I would assume the purpose of this thread is to promote positive news, be it interest rates, oil price, price of fish....., flight training prospects....whatever. The similarly worded, arse about face other thread....is presumably to do the opposite. The declining price of oil is presumably good news...be it for many reasons eg. deisel for my car is now 10 pence per litre cheaper than last month. That for me is good news, I drive just over 2000 miles per month. Nobody is in any argument that the aviation industry is teetering on a knife edge just now. Undertaking flying training would most certainly be a foolish move just now. Todays good news however is that the oil price continues to decline and that expert opinion now appears to suggest sub $100 per barrel by year end. Ecomomies will slowly catch up, perhaps 2 - 3 years is a good ballpark.
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