Professional Pilot Training (includes ground studies)A forum for those on the steep path to that coveted professional licence. Whether studying for the written exams, training for the flight tests or building experience here's where you can hang out.
Where are all these turboprob jobs??? I think any low hours pilot with half a brain has put jets to the back of their minds. People go on about 'stop thinking about shiny jets' but where are the rusty turboprob jobs???
Look for the trucks carrying clay drainage pipes - that is the sign of an upturn. I suppose the modern version is count the cranes in the middle of cities.
Look for the differences in this downturn.
60% of homeowners have equity compared to 10% in the last recession.
More pensioners wanting to fly to their second homes.
The big problem is that in the future the Government cannot afford to pay the pensions of their civil servants/ military.
The Companies paying fat pensions will find the pension pot has reduced in value.
The home owners will find less and less equity in their homes.
Still, forecasting the Economy is as difficult as applying a model based on experience to forecast the weather.
Those with money will make money. Those without will have to dream.
National Turkey Federation - Christmas To Be Abolished by 2013
There is a reason why press releases like this appear on a Monday. The Sunday skeleton staff of the press are desperate for anything to print in Mondays edition. Wait for the Nationwide figures for July which will be out on Thursday.
WWW, the linked picture doesn't work. It would appear that one has to be a member of the housepricecrash dot co dot uk forum I gather it sits next to pessamistsrus dot com
Well its Thursday and the house price figures for July are out. MINUS 1.7%
From the Peak of last year in Sept 2007 to June 2008 the Nationwide figures showed a fall of 12.1%. Now add July and we have a fall from last years peak to today of 13.8% which makes this the fastest house price crash ever recorded in post-war UK history.
The graph above is dropping steeply and won't stop until it has gone below the long term trend line of average house price equalling 3.5 times average earnings. From a peak ratio of 6:1 they will fall by around 50% in real terms (adjusting for inflation) to get back to long term averages.
The sun shines, Big Brother enters another season and most people have no idea that the economic situation is actually worse than the 1990 crash/recession.
From Flight Global. The more cyniclly minded amongst you might suspect Alteon have a very real interest in talking up the market.
As an aside, when this debate started many months ago I was certain that WWW was being absurdly pessimistic. Every day since I've been getting a little less certain
Location: Just a bit lower than the point where the falling angel meets the rising ape
Posts: 222
Extend that graph a bit...
Look at the graph posted by WWW. Now, this isn't scientific OR mathematical by any stretch of the imagination, but consider this:
The graph shows 3 peaks, 3 troughs. The peaks get slowly higher, each trough (corresponding to a bad point in recent economic history) is relatively deeper and definitely wiiiider than the one preceding it.
The peaks come 1975ish, 1980ish, 1990ish, 2007ish
the troughs go up in appx 10 grand increments
So, are average house prices going to drop to around 80-90k, and is it going to take 20-ish years for the next peak to come around?
And yes, I am having a quiet day at work. And yes, I've already said it's all eyeballed rather than calculated, but if you believe in economic cycles, the you've got to wonder what's coming...
I think there is another point that we are all missing, besides fuel and recession etc.
The 4 big uk charter players (with the exception of Monarch), have merged to become 2. These 4 airlines have been drip feeding in new recruits for the past 4-5 years, whether it be from regionals, or direct from OAT/Cabair etc. These 2 huge airlines are now looking at hull losses, that will inevitably bring a few job losses...never mind recruitment.
This is just another uk airline 'issue' that combined with the 'kellogs credit crunch' makes large training commitments a very difficult decision at the moment.
Personally, I am going to finish my PPL in a few months, and hold fire.....I currently work at the front end of trains...business is booming, although I bloody hate it!
Well on a positive note, amidst all the doom mungers, my local garage has just dropped a futher 4 pence a litre on petrol and diesel. Thats now £1.22 a litre for diesel, and a few quid off my monthly fuel bill compared to the last 2 or 3 months.
Hard hat on now.......waiting for someone to tell me the worlds going to end tomorrow!!
LONDON, August 1 (Reuters) - British Airways <BAY.L> posted
a fall of 88 percent in first quarter profit and said the
trading environment was the worst the industry has ever faced as
high oil prices, the economic slowdown and weak consumer
confidence hit.
The British carrier reduced its annual revenue target to 3
percent from 4 percent previously and said it would raise ticket
prices during the year to recoup losses from a planned 3 percent
reduction in winter capacity.
"This is the worst trading environment the industry has ever
faced and fares are likely to go up as we reduce some winter
capacity and cope with unprecedented oil prices but we won't be
grounding any aircraft," CEO Wille Wlash told reporters on a
conference call.
Profit before tax for the three months to end-June fell to
37 million pounds from 298 million pounds in Q1 last year,
missing an average forecast of 49 million pounds supplied by BA.
Analysts' forecasts for pretax profit ranged from 16 million
pounds to 87 million.
The group's operating profit fell to 35 million pounds from
255 million during the same period last year but revenue rose
2.8 percent to 2.26 billion.
Walsh confirmed talks with Spanish carrier Iberia <IBLA.MC>
about a potential all-share merger are underway but said it was
"too early to say what impact it will have on the business in
terms of jobs."
Yeah the fuel surcharges are BA greed not because the oil price has gone up
And BA losing money is going to be good for pilots how exactly??
company losing money so answer = slash seat prices to lose more money = less pilot jobs does it not??
Am I being naieve but didn't they report they still made 37 million pound bt profit??!!
Its not like they're in the red.Same with all these other companies.They are still making money, just not as much as they would like.
Swings and round-abouts.
The capital deployed would make that a day in interest in my old Griffin Savers Account...
Just as in the early 90's recession there will be a DanAir and and an AirEurope go bust and the consequences for Wannabes will be the same. Dire.
I'd actually go so far as to say it would be worth suspending your training now rather than just not starting it. Anything that has a time expiry such as the ATPL exam passes or the IR and which are a pain/expensive to renew would be a risk potentially.
topgun, £37M is such a marginal profit it is scary. BA are probably hitting about 2-3% of turnover. Compare that with your local pub which is probably making a 40-50% profit on the food it sells.
I gather it sits next to pessamistsrus dot com 
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