Professional Pilot Training (includes ground studies)A forum for those on the steep path to that coveted professional licence. Whether studying for the written exams, training for the flight tests or building experience here's where you can hang out.
As much as it maybe pains you to admit it, WWW, the price of oil is moving in the right direction. Since the end of June there has been a general decrease of nearly $25 a barrell. Off course, the price is still very high, and volatile, as the Iran missile incident proved. The global demand however, particularly in the US has dropped, perhaps the yanks have finally had a wake up call. As has the rest of the world by the looks of it. But in saying all this, it could off course all go horribly wrong yet! But for the timebeing, my glass will always be 'half full'!
I've stayed away from this as I contributed a fair bit to the downturn thread and felt this would be just more of the same. When that thread was in full swing things were FAR better than they are now and they still looked pretty bleak.
The real fact is this, the job market, particularly for new FATPL's is bloody terrible. You can argue all you want but facts are facts. It has also weakened considerably for experienced pilots. I've been hearing a hell of a lot of people recently talking about seniority numbers and people who are swapping airlines as being 'mad'. I happen to agree. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out that if people are staying put then there is no movement hence no opportunites for those further down the food chain.
I just can't be bothered listing all the reasons why signing up to £100,000 of debt is lunacy at the minute. In 8-12 months time I may well have changed my mind. This game is all about timing. I did the research when I did it, it's up to you to do it now. What I will say is be realistic with yourselves and take your time over training. Every day that you are out of training and not in employment you become less marketable...and there will be another, more current course, graduating behind you.
Down as in - was $146 / barrel - now $126 / barrel - I'm not sure about your maths but in my book that is DOWN!!!
It is not in any way fantastic, or mean that everything is now rosy and no airlines will struggle/go bust but please don't deny that (for the time being at least) the constant upward trend of fuel prices has reversed.
* Total passenger numbers up by 16% with continued strong growth in Gatwick and
mainland Europe in particular
* Total revenue per seat grew by 12% to £46.36 compared to the same period last
year
* Total revenue up 32% driven by strong ancillary performance and the
strengthening Euro
* Revenue and costs excluding fuel performing to expectations and over 50% of
the expected full year fuel cost increase of £185 million has been offset
* Capacity growth reduced significantly for the Winter 2008 / 2009 to around 4%
to 6% with flexibility to scale back further
Three months ending June 30th 2008 June 30th 2007 Change %
Total revenue (£m) 3 641 487 32
Passenger revenue (£m) 3 538 441 22
Ancillary revenue (£m) 3 103 46 124
Including checked bag charge
Total revenue per seat (£) 46.36 41.46 12
Passenger revenue per seat (£) 38.91 37.58 4
Ancillary revenue per seat (£) 7.45 3.87 93
Including checked bag charge
Passenger numbers grew 16% in the quarter to 11.5 million. The majority of the
growth was focused around London Gatwick, France, Italy and Spain. Total non-UK
originating passengers increased by 25% in the quarter and UK originating
passengers grew by 9%.
Despite the timing of Easter which has had the effect of diluting yields, total
revenue per seat continued to grow strongly, up 12% to £46.36 in the quarter,
with passenger revenue up by 4% per seat. Ancillary revenue grew by 93% in the
quarter to £7.45 per seat, mainly driven by the introduction of the checked bag
charge from 1st October 2007. The checked bag charge increased to £5 per bag at
the end of March. A significant proportion of easyJet's passenger revenues are
Euro denominated and unit revenues have benefited from the strengthening of the
Euro. Total revenue trends on a constant currency basis have also improved as
shown in the table below.
% change vs F '07 Q1 F'08 Q2 F '08 Q3 F'08
Total revenue per seat 1% 16% 12%
and at constant currency -1% 9% 5%
easyJet now operates 356 routes from 20 bases and revenue performance is
encouraging across the network. London, especially Gatwick, continues to perform
well with particular strength on the former GB Airways sectors and on routes to
France and Italy. Overall, the UK regional bases are delivering good results
particularly at Newcastle and in our Scottish bases. Performance at Belfast
remains challenging as capacity has increased in the market, however
encouragingly easyJet's loads are ahead of the competition on key overlapping
routes. France and Italy are delivering strong revenue per seat improvement.
Madrid remains challenging however there has been recent improvement in revenue
per seat and easyJet's load factors continue to be above those of its
competitors.
Network development
Network expansion continues to focus on primary centres such as Milan Malpensa
and Paris Charles de Gaulle. At Milan Malpensa easyJet has recently introduced
its 11th aircraft, increased capacity substantially and by December 2008 easyJet
will have 15 aircraft based there.
Overall, capacity growth for the Winter 2008 / 2009 has been reduced and is
currently planned to be in the region of 4% to 6%. Flying at less profitable
times has been thinned and easyJet will reallocate capacity from weaker
performing bases towards higher value opportunities including Gatwick, France
and Italy. At Stansted, capacity will be reduced by 12% this winter and at the
beginning of June easyJet announced that the future of its base at Dortmund is
under review. In the current environment flexibility is vital and easyJet
continues to review its schedule and may make further adjustments both to
eliminate unprofitable flying and to seize any opportunities that may arise as
capacity exits the market.
Outlook
easyJet's underlying business continues to perform well and in line with
expectations. Second half total revenue per seat is expected to show mid teens
growth compared to the same period last year. Costs ex fuel, have in the second
half been under pressure from increased airport charges not least at Gatwick, a
decision easyJet is challenging through a judicial review process. easyJet will
continue to be relentless in its approach; reducing cost and increasing
efficiency.
Due to the rise in the oil price, easyJet's fuel costs have increased by around
£185 million for the full year and naturally this will drive a reduction in
margins. However, easyJet has offset over 50% of the increase in fuel through
revenue and cost performance and will deliver pre-tax profit before one-off
costs in the range of £110 million to £120 million, assuming an average
un-hedged fuel price of $1,280 per metric tonne for the second half of the
financial year. GB Airways is now integrated into easyJet's operating model and
one-off integration costs remain in line with the original guidance of £12
million.
Winter 2008 / 2009 will be challenging for the whole airline sector due to
higher fuel costs. easyJet currently has 28% of its 2009 fuel requirement hedged
at an average price of $1,265 per metric tonne.
UK retail sales figures out today for June are the worst ever recorded.
US house prices are falling harder than in the Great Depression.
Oil is nearly twice what it was a year ago.
Stock markets are in Bear Markets.
Unemployment is rocketing.
I could go tediously on. We have a house price crash. We have a recession. We will therefore have a number of airline busts come Autumn/Winter and for Wannabes this will be a dire crisis far deeper than the Sept11th 2001 event.
www - you didn't ever work for the Daily Mail did you?
Your statements above - while possibly true in some cases do need a little balance.
Quote:
UK retail sales figures out today for June are the worst ever recorded.
Since records began - in 1986
Quote:
US house prices are falling harder than in the Great Depression.
Debateable - although the fact that we still are in an inflationary economy and during the Great Depression there was de-flation due to the appaling finacial position then this can be made to appear that in 'real terms' the US housing market is falling faster than it was in 1931
Quote:
Oil is nearly twice what it was a year ago.
Nearly twice - well $77 * 1.65 = $124
Quote:
Stock markets are in Bear Markets.
As they have been for about 4 years
Quote:
Unemployment is rocketing.
Unemployment has shown a steady rise althouh employment is also up at record levels.
Quote:
I could go tediously on. We have a house price crash. We have a recession. We will therefore have a number of airline busts come Autumn/Winter and for Wannabes this will be a dire crisis far deeper than the Sept11th 2001 event.
That's in stone.
You do go tediously on!!! What you have stated in your last paragraph may well be very well thoughtout opinion but it is not 'In Stone'
I am not doubting that things are not fantastic and that any Wannabe would be a complete fool to mortgage his parents house to get himself into 20 years debt on the off chance of a job - but please, can we not devalue this argument by having a) A list of tabloid style doom and gloom 'headlines' without the 'facts' being fully substantiated and B) Every time someone states something that does not support ones argument - don't immediatly dismiss anything said - it is not constructive and just looks petty!
Can we all quote some cherry-picked economic statistics?
Bank of America's shares up 7pc after better-than-expected results, with Citigroup and Wachovia up 2.5pc and 4.55pc respectively off the back of this. So the banking crisis isn't all it was supposed to be.
Gold futures (expert judgement of what will happen to the haven in a tempest) down $23.30 at $925.20 per ounce.
The dollar has risen against the Euro, 0.6379 up from 0.6336 a couple of days ago. Up to more then £0.50 against sterling.
Crude prices have dropped by about 15% from their peak. More importantly serious men are now starting to mention the word "bubble", previously only seen in right-wing websites. Stockpiling is therefore a lot less likely, and upward pressure is likely to be relieved.
What effect will these have on the aviation industry? Except for the last one, which if it continues is bound to improve things compare continued artificial inflation of oil prices, we don't know, and moreover the effect will be different in different parts of the world. This is an international site for an international industry.
Having said all that I would not recommend anyone to start training now simply for the career. If you love the flying it is worth starting up, maybe part time to be ready in 3 or 4 years. Oh, and don't buy shares in companies offering integrated courses!
Once again, your are making sweeping generalised statements. UK house prices are not falling as you say. In England perhaps, in the rest of the UK, no. Here in Scotland(yes, we are part of the uk!), house prices remain strong, and continue to increase at a steady rate. The grossly over inflated English market is undoubtedly getting its come uppings but dont tarn us all with the same brush.
As for unemployment, I really wonder which figures you loook at at times. According to every page i've just looked at, unemployment figures issued this month are down 0.2 % in comparison to this time last year. I dont get your 'rocketing' figures at all im afraid. But then again, you are the self appointed prophet of doom.
Whilst im not in denial that the economy is a downturn, there is a balance to strike between fact and that of the gutter trash media hipe that we seem to be subjected to every day.
It's clear that interest rates will now fall so thats good news for those wanting to borrow money to finance things like pilot training
It's possible to get some good bargains at times like this - no point in buying at the top of the market
As oil falls in price it wil make flying seem affordable again and may save the airlines who are struggling. Its likely that Easyjet will now do better than those predicting oil rises to 200 dolllars might have expected. Good news for flight crew in that airline! ANOTHER 1.5% fall today aone. I may get that SUV after all
There is a lot of oil in the arctic now available - it is now more accessible because the ice is melting
FTSE rocketed yesterday although some profit taking today - cant go up everyday I suppose
Oh the IMF have revise our positive growth figures in the UK up and so there is no recession on the horizon - they are economiste we are just pilots
Have you people such short memories...? Only last week the biggest denier and cheerleader for talking up the economy was forced to admit that the economic outlook was "more profound" than at first thought. This decline of oil price is a temporary glitch as speculators push it further down to make ever more money by taking a 'short' position. This will be followed by a thrust upwards when they revert to a 'long' position. It's all part of the bigger picture ... we are not in control but entrapped amongst this economic ghost train.
To simply start talking about pusuing a loan is very reckless at this stage of the game. Even if that is your desired course of action then just give it a few more months to calm down. Watch the industry and see how they react to all the economic data and news, maybe they've been spooked and won't be so willing to take on newbies for the foreseeable future. Couple this to the more global accessibility of employees and new working practices/agreements. Perhaps in the mid term you might be tempted to think somewhat differently about where you'll work, for whom and under what terms. Who knows maybe the flexible contractor setting would be all the rage for the coming years with a few senior captains as permanent staff.
I understand and empathise with you all but please stop trying to be the first galloping white knight into battle. Just don't fall over in this game, it's hard enough to keep going but a bad or untimely decision could have significant ramifications for the rest of your training/career. Look at all the Ryanair wannabes, flying perhaps a maximum of 500 hrs whilst living wherever they send you and paying back your mountainous debts. It's not cool when working is just breaking even and you really have no reserves. I accept it works for some but all I'm saying is be careful chaps and chapesses Other than that be cool ....
(the wife's starting to have moan might need to dash her off to the hospital for baby No. 2 and last one )
I dont think any of us are looking through rose tinted glasses. I dont think any of us are even denying that theres a downturn. I think we are however providing the flipside to the likes of www's constant one sided ramblings and desire to rid the world of wannabees. Training is still affordable and provided people are sensible about it, why shouldnt they train? I did my fatpl for 30k, its perfectly achievable.
You HAVE to bear in mind that the Frozen ATPL at Oxford is in excess of £80,000 with accomodation included. With the greatest respect the most realistic employment prospects at the minute are Flybe (Dash 8) and Ryanair. Flybe's salary for this year for a year 1 F/O is under £24000. Ryanair, on the other hand, are not even employing people direct but are doing so through Brookfield where you are paid by the hour and only when you fly! You try and service £80000 worth of debt at todays interest rates alongside day to day living on those kinds of salaries.
Unlike 3 years ago, Easyjet, bmibaby, Jet2 and Monarch are not recruiting. Mytravel is now part of Thomas Cook and they are not recruiting. Thompsonfly and First Choice are not only not recruiting, but are making pilots redundant (albeit voluntary). Higher up the food chain, Virgin stopped recruiting over a year ago and don't look like doing until 2010 at the earliest. Subsequently there is no movement from the locos, unless it's experienced pilots moving East...and there aren't many of them. So where exactly are all of these newly qualified people going to work?
WWW was handing out this kind of advice when I trained and guess what? He was bang on. You can bury your head in the sand as much as you want, but I for one think he's got it right this time aswell.
Last edited by Topslide6 : 24th July 2008 at 20:38.
Instead of all us Monday Morning Economists (Who lets face it - none of us have got a clue [even those who think they do]) trying to decide whether its a good idea to train or not. Lets leave it the financial experts (i.e. the people who's money we are trying to borrow for training) shall we?
1. Anybody who has approached HSBC for a 30k unsecured loan for a modular fATPL in the last month please shout the outcome here.
2. Anybody who has approached HSBC for a 60K secured loan for a integrated fATPL in the last month please shout the outcome here.
I'm more than happy to be proved wrong based on FACT, but if HSBC thinks its a bad idea to train now - who are we to argue.
And as to those shouting great things at oil being $124 per barrel, then please give it a rest....that level is UNSUSTAINABLE for a whole load of airlines, its just that $145 is even more UNSUSTAINABLE for a whole load of airlines. Anything over $100 means the airlines are operating (the actual aircraft) for NO PROFIT and they might as well send the airbuses & boeings back and put the capital employed in a Post Office high interest account.....
Lets face it demand is huge and it only takes a missile test east of Dubai to send the cost soaring again
Personally I think this thread is irresponsible (Thats my opinion, one that I'm perfectly entitled to) because there is no EVIDENCE that the upturn is upon us or even that the downturn has finished yet.
Just takes one Major or large regional anywhere in the EU to make redundancies or go under and wannabees in training will be up the creek.
Topslide - thankyou for probably the most balanced words currently printed on both threads. A very close family member of mine is a very senior FO for a bucket and spade charter company and has found himself checking his seniority number every other day...
Yet again, the world doesnt exist beyond the UK with this thread does it. You are referring to purely uk based jet jobs. What about Turboprop and corporate/biz jobs(booming just now)? What about looking for opportunities overseas? It always comes back to the same old attitude of theres nothing else with wings other than an airbus or 737. Im not advocating that people go out and borrow 100k, im suggesting(and always have done) that an atpl is perfectly achievable for much less, provided people are sensible. There are still opportunities out there and the point of this thread should be to encourage people to look at cheaper alternatives, not hammer them down and tell them to forget about being a pilot its pointless...the world ends tmrw...blah blah!
All these people banging on about histroically low interest rates and employment are either trying to wind people up or they're, forgive me for being so blunt, morons.
The fact is that ther are a hell of a lot of people in the UK who were/are on fixed rate mortgages that were fixed in the region of 3%. These people are suddenly finding, at the end of their fixed rate period, that their interest rate has more than doubled. This is just beginning to happen. Give it twelve months and see where the UK housing market is. F***ed is my guess. The interest on my HSBC PSL has increased nearly 3% since I started training. Quite simply, I could not pay this off on £24000 per annum. A doubling of interest rates from 3% to 6% is no different from 7% to 15%. The pain is the same.
Unemployment is NOT low. It is if you're an idiot and believe what you're told. The official figures state that 1.62 million people are currently unemployed. They seem to forget to include in this the 2-3 million people sat on their arses on incapacity benefit which, suprise suprise, has to be paid for by the state. Economics 1.01 states that this is paid for by taxes, as the government can't borrow anymore money as they're already in over their heads. Higher taxes means less disposable income means blah blah blah.....economy down the toilet.
The UK has been on a knife edge for the last decade and appears to have fallen over the edge.
In one to two years time I would say pile in and get on with training. As WWW has said, it WILL recover. However, doing it now is madness.
Mike-CR,
Again, head in the sand. If you wish to work outside the EU then you need residency. Just point out to me where you're going to work as a new British FATPL. Emirates? Don't think so. India? Not past 2010 you're not. Australia? No. USA? Not a hope. Canada? Ditto. Asia? Not without experience. Africa? You'e welcome to it. Not what I would pay £80000 to do.
You have got to be realistic. Common sense and a sense of perspective have become vary scarce in the UK since 1997.
Last edited by Topslide6 : 24th July 2008 at 20:43.
You really dont get me do you topslide. My purpose of posting is not to tell people one way or another whether to train or not(WWW does that perfectly well by himself!), i couldnt give a damn what they do personally. My point is to highlight that training costs are perfectly achievable on a budget and that as it stands(at the moment), there are still opportunities out there to be had. If the world go's tit*s up then so be it. Nobody knows what way its going to go, least of all me, you or www. And I have never been a fan of the integtrated monster machines that rip people off of 100k, and sstr's etc, i think its absolutely horrendous they can get away with it.
Bizjets is my particular corner of the industry and to be honest I can safely say that only 6 months ago it was absolutely buzzing with Jobs even for 200 hr ex cadets (No opinion either way but very unusual in bizjets) with good positions being fairly plentiful.
Right now its crap..... Nobody dares move even for more money, it just seems everybody has gone into hedgehog mode.
Flight International last year probably had a couple of pages for GA/Corporate jobs each and every week...now maybe one or two individual ads for the ME and Africa - feel free
Spoke to a very good freind yesterday who reckons his charter outfit is going to make a huge loss this year because of the last three months 9 months hard work for nothing.....Its like somebody has flicked a switch at the moment. Hopefully it will recover
I agree it can be done cheaper than the £80000 Oxford way, but what's the point? Chances are you won't get a job unless you are VERY lucky. There just aren't any jobs. Why is that hard to understand?
It's the giving impressionable people false hope I don't like. For what it's worth, it wasn't you I was referring to as a moron. It's in response to post right back at the beginning.
I'll say again that it WILL recover. But at the minute....
It's the giving impressionable people false hope I don't like. For what it's worth, it wasn't you I was referring to as a moron. It's in response to post right back at the beginning.
But for the timebeing, my glass will always be 'half full'!
What you have stated in your last paragraph may well be very well thoughtout opinion but it is not 'In Stone'
Other than that be cool .... 
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