Professional Pilot Training (includes ground studies)A forum for those on the steep path to that coveted professional licence. Whether studying for the written exams, training for the flight tests or building experience here's where you can hang out.
Just have to do a little bit of research we carn't post that sort of thing on an open aviation board... )
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cjd_a320, since you mention it: Deflation may well rule, but QE is the yellow brick road to even more trouble.
I agree in the long term, however the powers that be have embarked on this route & alot more printing will be necessary on this long slow deflationary road....
Well some (if very few) are doing rather well out of this recession....my previous employer is a medium sized chain of pet sotres across the south of the UK.....they're doing better than ever and since the recession started have been opening at least one new store a month. The company has no real loans or HP to speak of continues to do very well. My point being, people are still spending on the highstreet but rather than a new sofa they're buying Fido a new bed!
The flip side to that is my family being in the metal industry.....my dad is currently seeing at least one business in the trade go tits up every week or so at the moment. And these arent one man bands, these companies are all legit and long standing firms in the employing at least 50 people upwards each. Companies that spent £100k a month with my dad this time last year are now spending £1k a month if that. . Manufacturing has gone well and truly down the toilet and its something that doesnt get that widely reported on by the media. All we seem to hear about is high street and finance sector businesses. The grim truth being that first in a very long line of dominoes in the manufacturing sector has been well and truly flicked....they're dropping like flies and I think this will lead to another sudden spike in unemployment very soon.
China’s economy rebounded in the second quarter, boosted by a surge in state spending and in bank lending, setting the scene for the biggest emerging economy to lead the world out of the worst global downturn since the Great Depression.
Economists had expected the economy to show some strong improvement as a huge 4.0 trillion yuan (£365 billion) government stimulus package announced last November began to take effect, but few had foreseen that annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth would accelerate in the second quarter to 7.9 per cent, up from 6.1 per cent in the first quarter.
That made China the world’s the best-performing big economy. It is now the third-biggest in the world.
There was growth from several sectors of the economy, including investment in fixed assets in urban areas in the first half and in June industrial production. Retail sales, a rough proxy for consumption, rose 15 per cent in June from a year earlier after May's 15.2 per cent increase.
The housing market is showing the first signs of an upturn since 2006, the Home Builders Federation (HBF) has said.The body's survey of Britain's major home builders found 60% of those asked had seen an increase in sales compared to the same time last year.
Thousands of workers and their families are expected to march on Teesside later in protest over the looming closure of a Corus plant in Redcar. The steelmaker has warned it may have to close the plant because a consortium of customers has withdrawn from a 10-year contract to buy its steel.
Unions say the closure will result in the loss of 2,000 jobs at the plant, as well as another 1,000 jobs elsewhere.
The dominoes of the Steel Industry that I mentioned earlier continue to fall....HARD!
Quant....I too saw the news from the HBF, however until the banks start widespread lending again its pretty meaningless. They can build all the houses they want but if there's no way for people to finance them then whats the point. According to the bloke who represents the banks that was on BBC breakfast, they're lending an additional £7bn a month but they're very reluctant to lend to anyone that they feel may not be able to meet the repayments.......Have the banks found their morals or is this just another excuse not to use the £billions of taxpayers money to start the market moving again????
OFFICIAL FIGURES this week for Britain’s second-quarter gross domestic product will confirm the worst of the recession is over. But a report from the Ernst & Young Item club, using the Treasury’s economic model, will warn of a fragile recovery, with the threat of a “double dip” back into recession.
Second-quarter GDP figures, to be published on Friday, are expected to show the economy shrank only slightly after its record six-monthly fall in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year.
Some economists think the figures could even show a small rise but, according to Ideaglobal.com, the consensus among analysts is that there will be a fall of 0.3%, after drops of 1.8% and 2.4% respectively in the two previous quarters. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which produces monthly GDP estimates, expects a fall of 0.4%.
Signs that the economy is stabilising after its autumn and winter plunge will be welcomed – largely reflecting the start of a turnround in stocks, or inventories – but economists remain cautious.
House price and stock market crash, recession, unemployment rises, recession ends, unemployment continues to rise, large airlines go bust.
Spread that out between 1989 and 1994 and you have a crude measuring stick that one might apply to the current situation.
Once the unemployment figures have breached 3 million and are falling and once the public spending totals have been slashed; only then will we see how big an aviation sector the new economy can support.
Some interesting imformations on site for new pilot may bee I not want to start so soon my studys?
that's really up to you! oil is forcast to drop to nearly $20/barrel later on this year (probably won't be quite so dramatic) so i think it's a golden opportunity to start training...
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The UK economy is set to shrink by 4.5% in this year, the biggest fall in a single year since 1945, according to an influential think-tank.
The downbeat forecast is more pessimistic than the consensus view, and considerably worse than the 3.5% fall predicted by the government.
The Ernst & Young Item Club also warned that hopes of economic recovery are "running ahead of reality".
It does, however, predict a return to modest growth of 0.5% in 2010.
With Avgas only being made in a couple of batches per year there's immense hysteresis in the pricing mechanism and it never approaches the lows for general fuel in a volatile market such as we have had in recent years. Those who actually pay for avgas can confirm this was the case when oil was at it's previous low.
Simply put: at any given time avgas costs don't reflect what you are paying at the pump to fuel cars unless it is upwards.
If you want to cut and paste your researches how about the section in the latest oil reports specific to transportation fuel?
House price and stock market crash, recession, unemployment rises, recession ends, unemployment continues to rise, large airlines go bust.
Spread that out between 1989 and 1994 and you have a crude measuring stick that one might apply to the current situation.
I'm not a financial expert - far from it, but can the same parallels be drawn with previous recessions as aren't they caused by different things? This recession was caused by the banking collapse and the availability of credit drying up.
Does that mean this recession will follow the path of previous recessions??
oil is forcast to drop to nearly $20/barrel later on this year (probably won't be quite so dramatic) so i think it's a golden opportunity to start training...
Was this forecast made by the same "experts" who said, around this time last year, that we'd soon be paying over $200/barrel?
We've already seen oil drop from $147 to around $30 and that hasn't made any difference to job availability, so why should a drop to $20 be any different?
ukdy - true that history doesn't completely repeat itself. Things will be different this time for sure. The whole industry is radically different now compared to 20 years ago if nothing else.
However, a knowledge of what happened in previous times of recession and surging unemployment at least provides a rough guide as to what to expect this time. Many Wannabes have little or no idea of how things were in commercial aviation in the period 1990 - 1994. I tend to bring it up a lot so as to encourage them to do a bit of research for themselves. Its all to easy to overwhelmed by the bullshit baffles brains approach of the Flying Training Industry and Her Majestys Government Ministers. Both are apt to lie.
Wikipedia provides suprisingly detailed and accurate articles on the demise of the likes of Dan Air and Air Europe.
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At the end of the first week of March 1991 ILG and all of its UK-based subsidiaries entered administration resulting in 4,000 job losses.[6]:353 Many of the aircraft operated by Air Europe and its regional Air Europe Express affiliate were impounded, leaving a large number of passengers stranded at various airports in the UK and overseas.
[edit]Causes of collapse
The main causes leading to the collapse of ILG and its UK-based subsidiaries, including Air Europe and Air Europe Express, were:
A major, unforeseen downturn in traffic as a result of the recessionary economic conditions in the UK and a looming war to liberate Kuwait from Iraqi occupation.[1]:169-70, 192
Undercapitalisation.
An unsound financial structure.
Being financially overextended.
Lack of ownership of any significant assets.
A high-risk strategy.
Against the background of a looming war in the Gulf as a result of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait during the summer of 1990 and a major recession in the UK at that time, ILG began suffering heavy losses and mounting debts.[1]:169-70,192
ILG/Air Europe's senior management was aware that ILG had been facing a cash crunch from as early as 1989 onwards. This had made it more and more difficult for the group to finance the aircraft it already had on order, notably the F100s and the MD-11s.
Wannabes are often unaware that in previous recessions large, household name airlines, who have recently grown and expanded and posted healthy profits - go bust. Can you think of any airlines that may currently be undercapitalised, with a somewhat unsound financial structure, who are arguably financially overextended whilst owning few significant assets? I think I can.
It is history that suggests to me that we will not see this period pass without the failure of some bigger beast airlines.
I hope for all our sakes that it doesn't happen. I don't think I could handle being a Wannabe again!
However, a knowledge of what happened in previous times of recession and surging unemployment at least provides a rough guide as to what to expect this time. Many Wannabes have little or no idea of how things were in commercial aviation in the period 1990 - 1994. I tend to bring it up a lot so as to encourage them to do a bit of research for themselves. Its all to easy to overwhelmed by the bullshit baffles brains approach of the Flying Training Industry and Her Majestys Government Ministers. Both are apt to lie.
Mortgage lending to homeowners jumped 17 per cent in June according to new figures, but economists remain cautious over the strength of the property market.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said that gross mortgage lending hit a six-month high of £12.3 billion in June, up 17 per cent from £10.5 billion recorded in June.
The CML's own figures show gross mortgage lending in the UK reached a record of £34.2bn in June 2007.
June 2009 is is £12.3bn.
And that is being spun as a recovery. Yeah. Right.
Lending is down to 36% of its level two years ago. The market is squarely on its arse and unemployment is rocketing and interest rates will HAVE to rise and rise. Any green shoots will be immediately sprayed with Agent Orange (look it up).
The Council of Mortgage Lenders and the British Banking Association are in competition to spin the most positive spin about the housing market. They almost make the Flying Training Industry look bluntly honest and impartial..
WWW - I agree with much of your analysis on the economy but eventually some good will come of this almighty clusterf*ck - one thing that will be better is that real UK house prices will be at least 50% lower than they were in 2007 ... or to put it another way, 100% more affordable to CTC/OAA/Jerez cadets who paid 80+ to get a summer only job that pays less than a tube driver. Also the lack of financing options - even most branches of Bank of Mater & Pater will stop lending soon - HAS to reduce the pool of low hours pilots which will eventually benefit T&C for existing drivers. The signs that the FTOs are getting desperate are there for everyone to see and the numbers coming through WILL drop dramatically very soon. In general I don't buy in to the theory that markets are self balancing but this one will.
I quit the UK last summer but for 15 years before that I was paid well by the industry that caused this mess. You've mentioned the shape of the curve before but it's no crystal ball - it can be wrong, it has been wrong before and it might be wrong now ... and since you know what it is supposed to mean would you rather see it inverted? We're in completely uncharted territory and nobody knows what the new economy will look like for airlines or anyone else when the dust eventually settles.
If you want to cut and paste your researches how about the section in the latest oil reports specific to transportation fuel?
I can't do all the work for you towers so get of your lazy behind and find it for yourself! The research i have is what i get paid for and if you send me a cheque i'll share it with you otherwise go and 'cut & paste' it for yourself.
There is some truth in what you have said though.
WWW don't worry i'll convert you yet! we are in one big mess and it will take time to get out off but there a certain hopeful signs
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. Manufacturing has gone well and truly down the toilet and its something that doesnt get that widely reported on by the media. All we seem to hear about is high street and finance sector businesses. The grim truth being that first in a very long line of dominoes in the manufacturing sector has been well and truly flicked....they're dropping like flies and I think this will lead to another sudden spike in unemployment very soon.
China state fillip sends GDP soaring to 7.8%
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