Professional Pilot Training (includes ground studies)A forum for those on the steep path to that coveted professional licence. Whether studying for the written exams, training for the flight tests or building experience here's where you can hang out.
Maybe another factor is that maybe people have just got plain bored with some of the pointless destinations offered by the low cost airlines. They have been there done that lost the bags have had their flights cancelled at the last minute and treated like meat. The only places in Europe worth going to twice are Paris, Vienna, Barcelona, Rome,Venice and Prague and a few others. The rest are forgettable.
Could it be that airlines have paused in their recruiting because no-one will get sacked for getting that wrong - you can always re-start - but they could get sacked for carrying on regardless and ending up over-recruiting?
I'm just cautioning against armchair economics. Even the professionals get it wrong with alarming frequency
I've no doubt but there are a lot of professionals in agreement at the moment. When it comes to gambling with 40K+ it's not wise to bet against the house.
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Whilst I'm not saying they're wrong, 35% up from what? That makes a difference but it doesn't make a headline. Everyone has an angle, particularly governments, journalists putting together a story and CEOs making announcements.
I agree although in this case the story wasn't specifically about mortgage arrears it was about the CAB struggling to cope with the number of calls they are receiving so 35% isn't an insignificant number.
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Ask yourself, if you hadn't seen the news for six months whether your opinions - based entirely on your own experience - would be as strong.
I'm with a couple of other posters here who were saying that this situation could be seen coming some years ago now due to the government manipulating the economy for their own good and not the good of the country, I'm just surprised it didn't come sooner. I just hope this government will work it's way out of this current situation and not talk it's way out making things worse in the long run.....what am I talking about, they're just going to screw it up as usual!
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You are actually correct, the time not to start an integrated course was 12 to 18 months ago, but you couldn't tell people that at the time even if you knew it - they were so sure they were right.
Imho it's still too early, i'm aiming to sit the exams in12 months (ish)....it'll be a snip after passing the national exams first time round. (I might see you for a brush up if you still do them).
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But Easyjet and Ryanair passenger figures in July 08 are 20% up on the previous year. Load factors are up too. Look at the figures:
I don't think the airlines have seen the worst of it by a long way, foreign holidays are quite high on peoples priorities (apparently, according to surveys ) so they will be one of the last luxuries to go.That's just me speculating though.
Profits for big airlines to soar as oil price drops
Daily Mail 3rd September:
Profits at British Airways, Ryanair and easyJet will make a dramatic recovery if the price of oil falls to $100 a barrel. The news provided some much needed respite for beleaguered carriers, and shares enjoyed a rare rally.
BA climbed 11½p to 273¼p and easyJet gained 36¾p to 379¼p, while Irish rival Ryanair flew 5 cents higher to €2.64 in Dublin.
But the retreat in the crippling costs of aviation fuel comes too late for failed long-haul firm Zoom and business carriers MaxJet, Silverjet and EOS, which have also gone bust. Crawley-based XL Airways is in rescue talks with its banks.
Gert Zonneveld at Panmure Gordon estimates that BA could make net profits of £330m next year if the oil price comes down to $100 - this is five times the current forecast of just £64m, which is based on an oil price of $120.
Using the same pricing projections, the analyst believes no-frills carrier Ryanair would see profits multiply by seven times next year to £110m from the present estimate of £15.4m.
Meanwhile, easyJet's earnings could more than double to £125m from £49m.
Dublin and Stansted-based Ryanair has taken the biggest punt on oil by going into this financial year with virtually no insurance policy against the rising cost of fuel, known as a hedge. BA has about 75% of its fuel needshedges this year, with 35% next year.
'It (oil price) is a huge deal for the airlines,' Zonneveld said. 'I wouldn't be surprised to see them taking advantage of the cheaper price by taking out more fuel hedging.'
Fuel costs are now the biggest expense for most airlines. BA's fuel bill is set to top £3bn this year, up from £2bn last year, and the flag carrier last month said it is spending £8m a day just to keep its planes flying.
The impact of record fuel costs on airline profits hit home when BA and Ryanair, two of Europe's most profitable players, recently predicted they could slip into the red this year if oil, which hit a peak of $147.27 in July, remained at such lofty heights.
But with the price of 'black gold' touching a session low of $105.46 yesterday, before rising to hover around $109 last night, analysts and investors forecast a less turbulent outlook for battered airline stocks.
Virgin Atlantic supremo Sir Richard Branson declared his interest in clubbing together with rival airlines to buy Gatwick Airport for £2bn from troubled operator BAA.
The Spanish- owned group looks certain to be forced to sell Gatwick, Stansted and Glasgow airports by the competition authorities.
Significant concerns now about Futura going bust over on Rumours and News is ominous. Bigger than the likes of BMIBaby I bet all their pilots have JAA licenses and speak English. Relocating from Majorca would be a bit of a downer but pilots go where the jobs are. I bet their FO's have got better looking CV's then me
I think this talk of armchair economists is people attacking the poster and not the posting.
You can't argue with the numbers when it comes to mortgage equity withdrawal money supply or with house price declines. There has never been a house price crash that has not resulted in a UK recession since the 1950's. There has never been a house price crash as big as this one so ergo there will be a massive recession.
I don't think its complicated enough to need an economist to understand that.
From what people on here say about the last recession it hits airlines harder than most other businesses and we should therefore expect to see some go bust. And, wowee!, look at that airlines going bust left right and center.
Gordon Brown promised an end to the boom and bust ecomony but we have seen that it doesn't matter who is in power we always experience these cycles until us Brits stop acting like sheep and start adopting a more European attitude to property ownership and attitude to dept. If you haven't got a decent deposit or can't buy something out right you can't afford it. The trouble is there are far too many people with maggots between their ears for the banks to take advantage of, the banks never lose out.
I started a couple of months ago (and need eye surgery before I can go too far) but I share your outlook for the future. If everything goes to plan it will take me 3/4 years too at which there might be more jobs!
I think you'll find that it was the government who held down the interest rates and kept the rules slack on the lending rules that fueled the house price bubble.
Why?
The feelgood factor delivered 3 consecutive Labour election victories.
Do you REALLY think politicians get into politics in order to help people and deliver the country to prosperity?
There is a global business cycle and all politicians know this. There are two strategies. In the first you reign in public finances during the expansionary phase so that you are in good shape for the deflationary phase (now) and can increase public spending on infrastructure to help support the economy.
In the second you let public finances rip during the expansionary phase so that the economy enjoys amazingly strong growth but accept that when tax receipts fall in a deflationary phase (now) you will have to cut public spending which further weakens the struggling economy.
Can you see which strategy Mr James Gordon Brown chose?
Do you think that was wise?
Prepare to pay the price for 3 socialist governments; winter of discontent and a depression.
Lurker, are you not old enough to remember Mrs Thatcher and her governing of the boom and bust of the late eighties and early nineties, i would suggest to you that governments of all colours seem inept when things go bad.
Yeah I remember that. You might have thought that the Labour party, having made much criticism at the time, might have learned the lessons for when it was their turn, no?
Plus the 1989 recession and White Wednesday (ERM fallout) set the scene for a glorious economic recovery for a country transformed from the strike ridden mess it was in the 1980's. I can forgive the ERM fiasco and recession in exchange for the employment law changes and transformation from metal bashing to a service economy which was painful but right. Labour have transformed nothing nor laid the foundations for anything but they have still given us a Boom and Bust bigger by a factor than anything seen before.
Just announced on BBC News TV.
New car registrations down 18.6% this Aug compared with last Aug.
Worst figures since 1966!
Do you think that all those people and businesses that REALLY HAVE decided to reign in spending on cars might just do the same for air travel? Or is that armchair economizing just too simplistic and naive of me? Surely it is SO SO SO simple to see the mother of all recessions coming?
and transformation from metal bashing to a service economy which was painful but right
If I could pick one hole in what you say - the UK remains the fourth-largest industrial exporter in the world. While the unions lost jobs galore, the UK actually became a great deal more efficient and retained a good position as an industrial economy.
However, the media has not noticed, the the unions disagree with everyone on principle anyway!
Conerted Lurker my friend I agree with what you say however the assertion that during the economic downturn they'll cut services is not how the Labour mob see it. Size of government grows regardless of the outside weather only the tax receipts fall/rise. I wish we had a government that would utter the tabboo phrase of "public spending cuts" especially during this downturn. However it's not so much the government or any single politicial party that worries me as the public whom are the classic example of sheep along with convientently short memories. If things improve sooner rather than later then Labour will be parading around telling everyone how it was them that 'saved us'. The significant proportion of the public will believe them in order to swing back to the labour side.
Sorry Re-Heat, I should have read your profile. Would you agree with the three basic premises of my post that (1) oversimplifications of the economic situation can be misleading and often lead to incorrect conclusions, (2) anyone can see a trend, predicting the turn is the tricky bit and (3) news stories and corporate and government announcements can also be (deliberately or accidentally) misleading?
I know the analysts are saying that the recovery in the oil price will have x effect on the bottom line and the shares are rising y% due to that news.
But I'm with WWW on this one, the big issue facing the industry is the volume of people who are choosing not to travel, not the oil price.
I'm on the other side of the Irish Sea and with the "Celtic Tiger" times have been good for the Irish economy and many many Irish people took advantage of the weak dollar and headed to New York for 3 to 4 days to do their Christmas shopping.
I have no doubt now though that with the downturn in the Irish economy the loads on these pre Christmas flights will be very much lower out of Dublin now as the same shoppers who went transatlantic for Christmas shopping in the past just can't quite justify the same this year and choose not to travel.
How could you when those Irish bank shares you bought are now down 60% in the year, you're house has fallen in value by 10%, mortgage interest rates are up, your petrol for your car is up, your company is going to miss profit targets so your bonus will be well down on last year, or maybe you won't get a bonus, or worse still you work in construction and you've been laid off.
The airlines will face maybe twice the dollar cost for fuel this year for the same transatlantic flight as last year but how much of that total cost of running an airline is the fuel bill? Which would have more effect on the bottom line, losing 50% of your passengers in a year, or doubling your fuel bill?
What happens when as we're seeing at the moment, you have a combination of both to a greater or lesser extent.
Whilst oil prices are falling back somewhat now they are still over $100 a barrel. And the major issue facing the industry, namely the fact that confidence is down and fewer pax are travelling, hasn't gone away either.
Scary times ahead for the industry over the medium term. Cut your cloth accordingly.
Yes, but you're projecting, and all the evidence is in exactly the opposite direction of your projection. People are not 'choosing not to travel', in fact loads on Ryanair and Easyjet are 20% up on last year, a huge rise in passenger numbers. Where do you get 'fewer pax are travelling' from?
Prepare to pay the price for 3 socialist governments; winter of discontent and a depression. 
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