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Weather for flying.

Old 6th Nov 2017, 17:25
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Weather for flying.

Hi all,
Just want to put up a thread on your way of interpreting the weather for a flight/lesson for the next day, a Vfr flight.
Or even same day flight. What all do you look out for and What is the best source you use? Avia weather app etc ? Thanks
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Old 6th Nov 2017, 19:40
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skyvector (www.skyvector.com) gives you METARs and TAFs (where available) for all airports worldwide.

On my phone I use MyE6B, costs something like $5 and gives you also METARs and TAFs worldwide.

If you want more thorough analysis, that will depend on where you are. In the US for example you can read the individual forecasters' analysis that has led to the actual forecast, but I don't think that's available in other countries.
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Old 6th Nov 2017, 20:01
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Seanmul89

Assuming your in Ireland, Met Eireann self brief not do the job?
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Old 6th Nov 2017, 20:12
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Met Office General Aviation vs Skydemon

If you sign up online for the former, it's free. I see you are in Ireland, but if you look at the briefing charts for "low level weather" or "spot winds" they do cover Eire. The TAFs and METARs are listed by UK region, but you can go to global search for Irish airfields and further away by entering ICAO codes.

If prepared to invest in Skydemon, as soon as you put your route in, it will show you not just TAFs and METARs appropriate to route, but also the NOTAMs you should be checking. Then you could even use as in-flight GPS.

If you are just starting, kick off with the Met Office (good learning process), and then when happy decoding, talk to fellow pilots about how they use Skydemon. Someone will be only too pleased to demonstrate what is a great piece of kit.
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Old 6th Nov 2017, 21:00
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.

Thanks for the replies .
I will check out most of that, I can decode and understand met terms, I'll look at met Eireann local weather but I'm still finding it dodgy to interpret what's ahead?
If you're looking weather for a next day flight especially this time of year what do you hope for?
I have an interest in meteorology, I really want to understand it 👌🏻. My wording might be a little off on what I'm trying to say.
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Old 6th Nov 2017, 21:30
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If you are looking for tomorrow's conditions, the long TAF (issued by about 6 p.m.) will tell you what is likely to happen. For VFR you'll want good vis (preferably 9999 - 10km plus), and a cloudbase at least 1000 feet (preferably 2000 feet) above the highest obstacle en-route. Check how conditions are going to change with time, to ensure you can be back or wherever you are going before it goes to worms - and remember it will always take longer than you think!

You'll also want to check the predicted winds at your origin and destination to ensure any crosswind will be in your personal limits. You'll need the upper winds to plan your enroute time and heading, and again preferably, you don't want gusting winds for either enroute or landing, as a bumpy ride is not enjoyable.

Before you set off, make sure the METARs make sense compared to the TAFs and pay particular attention to temperature and dew point. Remember as it gets later, the temp may drop and if they are already close you risk mist and fog for your return.

At this time of year the sun never rises very high, and if you are landing to Southwest sometimes it's hard to even see the strip if looking into sun! Add poor vis and could ruin your arrival.

The more you do, the easier it will become to set your personal limits.
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Old 6th Nov 2017, 23:22
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Brilliant, thanks for the reply, very informative.

I can use the very same info if I plan to just do an hour circuits ?
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Old 7th Nov 2017, 04:36
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Absolutely, but dependant on where you fly from, if it's not a major field, it may not have its own TAF. So you'll need to look at the nearest one that does. But always monitor local TV weather too - if your aircraft is kept outside, the BBC might issue a frost warning and then you know you could be delayed, preparing and de-icing.

If you are flying from grass, keep an eye on how soggy the local ground is getting and maybe call your field to ensure its not going to be too soft.

If you are then just in the circuit, you will only need a 1000 foot cloudbase, and if weather starts to change for the worse (you'll see weather coming in/deteriorating), it's a simple matter to come down early and spend useful time chatting to other aviators. You'll learn lots from the social aspect as well as instructors. Enjoy.
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Old 7th Nov 2017, 05:50
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Not too sure if it covers Ireland, but Metcheck.com gives a good pictorial indication of the following weeks weather. Sometimes this is useful if conditions are going to improve in the afternoon. Just enter your airfield, or nearest town, for the aviation weather.
.
Metcheck.com - Aviation Weather Forecasts - 8 Day Aviation Weather Forecast for sy4.
.
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Old 7th Nov 2017, 06:51
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https://www.windy.com/?54.585,-0.976,5,m:fmfafSo


http://www.orbifly.com/member/metmap.php
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Old 7th Nov 2017, 07:33
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Always start by looking at the F215 UK low-level forecast chart on the Met Office site.

TAFs are specific to a location whereas the F215 gives you the "big picture" and will cover all the possibilities. TAFs by their very nature are specific to one location and, for example, do not show turbulence.
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Old 7th Nov 2017, 08:07
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Originally Posted by fireflybob
TAFs by their very nature are specific to one location and, for example, do not show turbulence.


Suggest you look at Orbifly and hover your cursor over the Sigmet/Turbulence diamonds

Last edited by Flyingmac; 7th Nov 2017 at 09:52. Reason: Diamonds are not triangles.
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Old 7th Nov 2017, 10:48
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Have a crack at understanding it and predicting it for yourself....

I teach...

Analysis Chart (Synoptic) to give me what has just happened in terms of fronts, troughs, winds etc
Forecast Chart (Synoptic) to see what the met man predicts is likely to happen in terms of the same values. Obviously that depends upon you having a reasonable understanding of the types of weather associated with cold/warm/occuluded fronts, troughs, ridges, cols etc....
From there, I look at the 214's and 215's to give a general (but narrower) picture and look at the zones where the route passes through and the 'upwind' zones to see whats coming.
From there it's TAFs, but 24 or 36 hour TAFs are only available for the larger airports, and don't forget to check the airports en-route.

Hate met with a passion, probably because i struggled to understand why it was such a dark art and it's only through practice and reviewing what you thought was going to happen with what the MetMan said is going to happen against what actually did happen. Now, its a chore but not such a dreaded one.

Once you've mastered it, where you get it from doesn't really matter.

WeatherJack seems to be a good place with lots of imagery etc.
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Old 7th Nov 2017, 13:32
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Weather for flying in winter....the dark time! Days short, fog, sun very low, and often interfering with visibility.

Flying at High Wycombe, they used to turn on the lights and practice night flying... In the USof A, the PPL license does not require a special night rating. Here in the UK it does.

Seems to me that if you can find someplace to have a go at night flying it is a useful additional skill, especially in winter when there is plenty of dark time. And then if you contemplate flying in the US, you would have an idea of what it is like.
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Old 7th Nov 2017, 14:41
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Analysis Chart (Synoptic) to give me what has just happened in terms of fronts, troughs, winds etc
Forecast Chart (Synoptic) to see what the met man predicts is likely to happen in terms of the same values. Obviously that depends upon you having a reasonable understanding of the types of weather associated with cold/warm/occuluded fronts, troughs, ridges, cols etc....
From there, I look at the 214's and 215's to give a general (but narrower) picture and look at the zones where the route passes through and the 'upwind' zones to see whats coming.
From there it's TAFs, but 24 or 36 hour TAFs are only available for the larger airports, and don't forget to check the airports en-route.

Hate met with a passion, probably because i struggled to understand why it was such a dark art and it's only through practice and reviewing what you thought was going to happen with what the MetMan said is going to happen against what actually did happen. Now, its a chore but not such a dreaded one.
Duchess_Driver, excellent summary! PS I have grown to love Met.

Suggest you look at Orbifly and hover your cursor over the Sigmet/Turbulence diamonds
Flyingmac, agreed there are other "systems" which is really what I think the OP is asking about.

When teaching basic flying to new students I suggest they look at the aviation weather on a daily basis and ask themselves "Would I go flying today?". You can't expect to look at the weather forecast once every two weeks or a month and be able to readily interpret the information and make a reasoned decision. It takes constant practice.
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Old 8th Nov 2017, 11:26
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I also agree with Duchess Driver, but I think most PPLs are a bit rusty regarding interpretation of Form215, on a club level this is just the sort of recurrent course clubs should offer.

The G-BIIJ AAIB air accident this is an excellent example of a PPLs with no IMC rating getting into trouble with bad weather on the way to a stag night with a passenger. At the planning stage the DCFI goes through the weather on Form 215, suggested that there may be some low cloud near the coast, but otherwise the rout was feasable. I am not sure if his interpreation was good or complete. Then another instructor ontained the TAFs and METARS for for three the destination and two diverserion airports, but was too busy to hand them over to the pilot. What always puzzled me about this is that the PPL seemed to be relying on the instructors obtain and make a weather decision. His mindset was 'if the DCFI thought the flight was feasible'. To cut long story short thirty minutes into the flight the weather was SKT between 400 and 600ft. As the pilot pressed on in a lowering cloud base, but eventy went into IMC. On contacting Manchester, in credit to the controller, he advised the pilot that the cloud base in the low level corridor was 500ft, effectively impossible under Rule 5 of the ANO. It is though the pilot headed towards the coast in the hope the weather would be better, unfortunately heading into the Snowdonia mountain range and struck a mountain (Tryfan) killing both the pilot and passenger, where the MSA would have been 4500ft AGL.

The AAIB considered that based on the form 215 forecast the flight was possible in VMC, but what the pilot failed to do was to compare the forcast Form215 with the Actuals (METAR), the Actuals (METAR) were far worse than the Form 215.. The planned destination was Blackpool through the Mancester low Level corridor with the METARS as follows as follows:

Manchester at 0720 hrs, 320°/08 kt with 5,000 metres in drizzle and few cloud at 500 feet
agl, broken cloud at 700 feet agl and overcast at 1,000 feet agl.

Blackpool at 0720 hrs, 320°/11 kt with 4,000 metres and few cloud at 300 feet agl, scattered
cloud at 500 feet agl and broken cloud at 1,200 feet agl.

Leeds Bradford at 0720 hrs, 280°/07 kt with more than 10 km and few cloud at 3,500 ft agl.

So the moral of this tragic story is always cross check the TAF and Metars with the Form215!

The report can be found at:

https://assets.publishing.service.go...pdf_500660.pdf

Last edited by Homsap; 8th Nov 2017 at 12:25.
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Old 8th Nov 2017, 15:52
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What always puzzled me about this is that the PPL seemed to be relying on the instructors obtain and make a weather decision.
Exercise 2 "Preparation for and Action After Flight" is rarely taught and practised (by the student) completely if ever at all, in my experience.

Teaching someone to fly (should) involve a lot more than just the safe manipulation of the controls. Essentially and ideally we should be teaching PPL holders how to exercise "captaincy".

So the moral of this tragic story is always cross check the TAF and Metars with the Form215!
Agreed, all the available weather information (which includes METARs and TAFs and even looking out the window) should be consulted to build the "big picture".

Also within the PPL how often do we teach a turn back on a flight due to weather? Only last weekend I set off with a student for a land away only 20 miles from our base airfield. As the instructor I knew full well that it would be unlikely that we would be able to complete the task as the cloud base was considerably lower at the destination. About half way we turned back. This was a very useful lesson to see how easy it was to press on into worsening weather and to make an early decision to do a 180 and head back to base.
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Old 8th Nov 2017, 16:46
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Some great replies here appreciate it, when I started flying at a school which is now closed, the instructor would normally look at me without saying hi, hello how are you doing, he would simply say "you know what to do Sean", print out the weather and start going over it before anything, before a lesson obviously, but now since then it's simply going up rather than going through what I should be looking for.

My main reason for the thread was to see what all your routine is before a flight! I have some replies which state this, pretty much the same but some guys can tell me possibly showers tomorrow and low cloud or fog, maybe windy and so on, that's what I'm struggling at is interpreting this type prediction.
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Old 8th Nov 2017, 17:25
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Seanmul88,

Once you have studied some of the above. excellent links to useful weather forecasts, you can join the rest of us at the airfield, looking out of the window, wondering why the actual weather seems to be a lot worse than anyone seemed to forecast. You will discuss with your fellow aspiring aviators whether it is really getting better or not. Is that cloud base lifting? Is the sky really getting brighter in the West? You will wait until some brave flyer takes to the skies and then ask your friendly radio man to ask him what the cloud base and visibility are like? You will then console yourselves by quoting the "its better to be down here wishing you were up there than being up there wishing you were down here" mantra. Eventually you will give up and go home. Just as you get home, the weather will improve and it will become a perfect day for flying. Ask me how I know that.
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Old 8th Nov 2017, 17:51
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Google the rain radar sites, and wind charts and you can estimate from wind speeds and direction what is coming, how long it's going to take get to your chosen spot and often find you are correct. The more you play with it the better you will get, at least at "right here" forecasting.
A lump of rain cloud coming your way in a ten knot wind will be there in one hour, if it is only ten miles thick it will clear up in an hour. Not rocket science.
Rule of thumb. If the TAF is a two line affair it is very likely to contain bad news.
If it is just wind and vis 9999, and high pressure. Chances are it is a nice day. But, don't bet your life on it.
BBC weather ok but they seem more concerned with the temperature (seasonally stating the bleeding obvious!)
Metcheck seems reasonably accurate over a day or two but don't rely on much longer ahead than that.
Aeroweather site gives you Tafs and Metars.
I got out of the "flying school comfort zone" thing as soon as I could because of the "what do you think?" Syndrome.
Standing in a deserted field with a destination 60 miles away in mind, gets you thinking, Will I get there? Will I get back?

Last edited by Crash one; 8th Nov 2017 at 18:03.
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