Light aircraft down near Oban?

[Flyingmac]

Cloud base reported to be around 700' in the vicinity.

[ecosse]

see weather on first page<<<<

Kenny.

[adambsmith]

This is horrible news.

When I saw the 'selfie' of the two people in the Daily Mail's report, it reminded me of a very similar selfie I have on my phone of me and my wife. I then started to question whether I wanted to continue flying with my wife at my side or at all.

I realise there may be other factors (and we should wait for the AAIB report) but if the met on the day (see bottom of the first page) had shown up on my iPad that morning I just would not have bothered to go to the aero club let alone climb into a PA28.

I await the accident report with interest - not from a morbid point of view but wanting to learn what exactly went wrong.

[maxred]

Sorry for the families of these two people.

Ecosse, the weather you gave was for Oban, not Tiree, not sure what it was at the destination, but it can be very localised weather. Overcast at 1500, with broken at 1600, can mean anything. We do not know if this pilot was instrument rated/IMCr. If so, a cruise above at say 3k, would be pretty easy, IF the weather at destination was suitable for VFR let down. The report will cover it all. I advise,and stress to all, that if flying in UK, particularly Scotland, some form of instructional Instrument flying should be done. Dundee to Tiree is a direct route, MSA should be in region of 5000, so.........VFR at low level, is precisely that, VFR. If a wall of crap was sitting around Oban, they should have gone round, turned back, or headed South and let down over the water. We were not there so... and easy with armchair hindsight to make comment. The report may well be predictable unfortunately.

[Unusual Attitude]

Tiree weather for the day, pilot was IMC qualified and I'd expect with the forecast en route he would have planned to use it:

SA 04/04/2015 18:50-> METAR EGPU 041850Z AUTO 27005KT 4800 BR BKN003/// OVC010/// 07/07 Q1026=
SA 04/04/2015 18:20-> METAR EGPU 041820Z AUTO 29005KT 250V310 9999 BKN003/// BKN009/// 08/07 Q1026=
SA 04/04/2015 17:50-> METAR EGPU 041750Z AUTO 30007KT 9999 BKN003/// 08/07 Q1026=
SA 04/04/2015 17:20-> METAR EGPU 041720Z AUTO 29006KT 5000 BR OVC004/// 08/08 Q1025=
SA 04/04/2015 16:50-> METAR EGPU 041650Z AUTO 30008KT 9999 OVC007/// 09/08 Q1025=
SA 04/04/2015 16:20-> METAR EGPU 041620Z AUTO 31009KT 280V340 9999 BKN007/// 09/08 Q1025=
SA 04/04/2015 15:50-> METAR EGPU 041550Z AUTO 30009KT 250V320 9999 OVC006/// 09/08 Q1025=
SA 04/04/2015 15:20-> METAR EGPU 041520Z AUTO 30009KT 9999 BKN009/// SCT015/// 10/09 Q1025=
SA 04/04/2015 14:50-> METAR EGPU 041450Z NIL=
SA 04/04/2015 14:20-> METAR EGPU 041420Z AUTO 31010KT 9999 SCT005/// BKN014/// 10/09 Q1025=
SA 04/04/2015 13:50-> METAR EGPU 041350Z AUTO 31010KT 9999 SCT005/// SCT015/// BKN024/// 10/09 Q1025=
SA 04/04/2015 13:20-> METAR EGPU 041320Z 30012KT 9000 SCT002 BKN005 10/09 Q1025=
SA 04/04/2015 12:50-> METAR EGPU 041250Z 30010KT 9999 6000NW SCT002 BKN004 BKN014 10/09 Q1025=
SA 04/04/2015 12:20-> METAR EGPU 041220Z 29013KT 9999 SCT002 SCT004 BKN016 10/09 Q1025=
SA 04/04/2015 11:50-> METAR EGPU 041150Z 30014KT 260V320 9999 FEW002 BKN005 BKN030 10/09 Q1025=
SA 04/04/2015 11:20-> METAR EGPU 041120Z AUTO 30012KT 9999 BKN002/// BKN018/// 09/09 Q1025=
SA 04/04/2015 10:50-> METAR EGPU 041050Z AUTO 30010KT 7000 BKN002/// BKN018/// 09/09 Q1025=
SA 04/04/2015 10:20-> METAR EGPU 041020Z AUTO 31013KT 9999 OVC002/// 08/08 Q1025=
SA 04/04/2015 09:50-> METAR EGPU 040950Z AUTO 30012KT 3800 BR OVC002/// 09/08 Q1025=
SA 04/04/2015 09:20-> METAR EGPU 040920Z AUTO 30011KT 2300 BR BKN002/// 09/09 Q1025=

I departed Perth a couple of hours earlier that day and the cloud base in that area was around 4000' though reducing significantly inland, forecast to the west was guff, freezing level if I recall given as 2-4k. I was headed south thankfully but even that was rubbish south of Edinburgh and I had to route along the coast.

Regards

UA

[maxred]

Thanks UA. That is a no go in my book, and would suggest most peoples. It was not even predicted to improve. It just is so sad when peoples lives are lost when based on a weather decision, where everything is telling you get the ferry.

[dbee]

HF

What a shame; however 'see and be seen' has always been a good motto, especially flying light aircraft.

I had flown HF a number of times as an instructor when it was at CVT (EGBE) in the 80s

dbee

[mm_flynn]

Originally Posted by Unusual Attitude

Tiree weather for the day, pilot was IMC qualified and I'd expect with the forecast en route he would have planned to use it:

Regardless of ratings, EGPO doesn't have any published procedures and the METARs seem particularly low for a DIY approach. So to that extent, I would be a bit surprised if he was rated. However, as has been said, the facts will all come out in due course with the AAIB.

[SpannerInTheWerks]

If this was a club-operated aircraft who signed them out - surely with the weather forecasts available and the route known it was a 'no go' from the start?

As MaxRed stated:

That is a no go in my book, and would suggest most peoples. It was not even predicted to improve.

If it was a privately operated flight, it's sad that no one questioned the viability of the flight and/or had a quiet word in their 'shell-likes' when they booked out. All good advice in hindsight I know.

There are many issues here it would appear - not least IMCr v IR, MSA, published procedures, freezing level, TAFs and actuals ... the list goes on.

It's one of those accidents which makes you feel that the system's failed them somewhere?

[Unusual Attitude]

I can assure you the pilot was IMC qualified, and it was his own aircraft, not club owned.

I'm not going to speculate as to what I think happened, merely stating that the weather was guff at the time which is apparent from the historic METARS. These are easy to read in hindsight and the TAFs may have shown something different but from memory of my brief that day the Form 215 showed crappy weather to the west, a nicer patch over Eastern Scotland and either a warm or occluded front out to the east moving west at about 10-15kts. It may have been the pilot thought he saw a window in the afternoon where the nicer patch would be over his destination, as it happened the winds aloft were not even close to forecast that day.

I'll leave it for the experts to figure out.

Regards

UA

[dont overfil]

loganair cancelled their morning flight to Tiree due to the forecast.

However, the Tiree weather had nothing to do with what happened as he was still 60 nm away and in the cruise.

Aircraft being taken off the mountain today to be moved to Farnborough.

Unusual Attitude has the basic facts correct. Freezing level in the area was forecast to be +2 at 5000ft. I would not trust that to be accurate but he could have been above cloud. 10 miles west of Dundee he was climbing through 3700 ft and VMC.

[maxred]

However, the Tiree weather had nothing to do with what happened as he was still 60 nm away and in the cruise.

Agreed, but given he was flying Dundee - Tiree, it figures largely in the decision to go, or not, as the case may be.

Maybe his engine failed, no one knows.

[piperboy84]

The press reported that "radar coverage was lost" if this is correct I assume he must have been at least 5k to have been picked up which may have put him VFR on top which would be more likely than trying to stitch his way thru the low level clag with high mountain tops. As a previous poster implied it could have been a multitude of causes or a combination thereof. Either way it's a tradgedy.

[Maoraigh1]

From the Oban Times:

The plane was seen going down behind the hills at a steep angle by two separate hill walkers in the Ardmaddy area,who reported it to emergency services.

This appears to have been loss of control at altitude - not scud-running. As there is no fuel at Tiree, they would have had fuel to return, and probably divert to anywhere in Scotland. The decision by an IR(R)/IMC rated pilot to fly the route does not seem unreasonable.

TAF COR EGPU 041206Z 0412/0414 29009KT 9999 BKN015 TEMPO0412/0414 1200 DZ BR BKN002

Pilot error does not appear to me to be the most likely cause. Airframe break-up due to severe turbulence/overspeed?
Overspeed reulting from A/H failure in cloud? CO affecting occupants?
I assume they would have been able to recover from a spin in the VMC conditions where the hillwalkers saw them.

[airpolice]

Or a loss of control due to Icing / Airframe failure / Pilot incapacitation, the list is huge.

Once the AAIB have trawled the wreckage we might get a GoPro style FDR/CVR to tell us what went wrong, or we might never know.

As for a not unreasonable journey, Loganair cancelled their trip that morning, due to Wx.

[9 lives]

Pilot error does not appear to me to be the most likely cause. Airframe break-up due to severe turbulence/overspeed?
Overspeed reulting from A/H failure in cloud? CO affecting occupants?
I assume they would have been able to recover from a spin in the VMC conditions where the hillwalkers saw them.

I agree that a report of the aircraft descending into the ground, as opposed to flying into it more or less level, is interesting information as to the conduct of the flight. Scud running is less likely to result in steep descents - 'cause you're not high enough to do it

Any of the quoted circumstances (other than the CO) would happen only as a result of failure to maintain speed, and/or attitude. That would take us back to pilot actions. An airframe will not break up in turbulence, if the aircraft is flown at a margin slower than Va. A spin will not be entered if speed and attitude control is maintained. A/H failures happen, but can and should be managed.

It is possible for a pilot to loose control of at aircraft in IMC or no practical vis conditions, with JFK Jr. being one of the more memorable examples.

[oggers]

The decision by an IR(R)/IMC rated pilot to fly the route does not seem unreasonable.

TAF COR EGPU 041206Z 0412/0414 29009KT 9999 BKN015 TEMPO0412/0414 1200 DZ BR BKN002

Well, if I wanted to fly a helo off a nearby ship into Tiree that TAF might seem reasonable. But it doesn't seem so reasonable given where the flight was coming from and the dirty great mountains they had to negotiate. One would expect a route brief indicating somewhat better conditions to that along the way, and no doubt the experts will be looking at that as they try to figure this one out.

[gasax]

To the east of Ben Cruachan it is highly likely that the weather was perfectly reasonable VFR. In the lee of that ridge running down the east of Loch Linnhe it would have had a very low ceiling. To the west more typical of the Tiree conditions

Over Tiree where there is a single area of high ground and the rest of the island is about 20ft high it would have been reasonable to descend over the sea and sneak in. These conditions are not unusual on the west coast and it is possible the pilot was familiar with them - or equally they were not. But being natives of the island and IMC rated? Likely they were familiar with the typical conditions.

[maxred]

To the east of Ben Cruachan it is highly likely that the weather was perfectly reasonable VFR. In the lee of that ridge running down the east of Loch Linnhe it would have had a very low ceiling. To the west more typical of the Tiree conditions

Over Tiree where there is a single area of high ground and the rest of the island is about 20ft high it would have been reasonable to descend over the sea and sneak in. These conditions are not unusual on the west coast and it is possible the pilot was familiar with them - or equally they were not. But being natives of the island and IMC rated? Likely they were familiar with the typical conditions.

Given that two young people lost their lives here, I, despite reading that paragraph several times, sometimes despair.

[funfly]

I am still amazed that people don't use the performance of a flying-machine to climb above inclement weather.

When I had just learned to fly but did not have an instrument rating, I flew into a cloud wall that I did not see.

Engine to full, 180 turn and climb as fast as I could.

When I cleared the cloud in less than 1 minute I found myself very close to the ground and at a peculiar angle. It was a close thing and made me quickly get my instrument training but it does illustrate that it's not as easy as 'just head upwards'.

FF