The future of "General Aviation"
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The future of GA in Europe ?
Permit. maybe
Mogas.Times for MOGAS are almost gone, as the ethanol-free autofuel vanishes due to the ecoterrorists mixture found for cars nowadays
Rotax. that's current, what the future brings - ???
Farm Strips. definitley not, mainly because major EU governing countries don't allow that kind of field ...
Permit. maybe
Mogas.Times for MOGAS are almost gone, as the ethanol-free autofuel vanishes due to the ecoterrorists mixture found for cars nowadays
Rotax. that's current, what the future brings - ???
Farm Strips. definitley not, mainly because major EU governing countries don't allow that kind of field ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Midlands
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No for the first time I find almost nothing in common with you
"The future of GA in Europe ?
Permit. maybe
"Mogas.Times for MOGAS are almost gone, as the ethanol-free autofuel vanishes due to the ecoterrorists mixture found for cars nowadays"
Zero issue - some EASA aircraft are already approved to 10% and permit
aircraft - Micros are approved and SEP should be by the end of the year.
"Rotax. that's current, what the future brings - ???"
Aircraft design is dominated by and lags behind engine design. Industrial conversions show some promise though.
"Farm Strips. definitley not, mainly because major EU governing countries don't allow that kind of field ... "
Some do, some don't.
IFR approval for Permit aircraft is in final testing stage - criteria should be finalized in 6 months. We will then have Permit, Strip, Mogas, Rotax, IFR!
Rod1
"The future of GA in Europe ?
Permit. maybe
"Mogas.Times for MOGAS are almost gone, as the ethanol-free autofuel vanishes due to the ecoterrorists mixture found for cars nowadays"
Zero issue - some EASA aircraft are already approved to 10% and permit
aircraft - Micros are approved and SEP should be by the end of the year.
"Rotax. that's current, what the future brings - ???"
Aircraft design is dominated by and lags behind engine design. Industrial conversions show some promise though.
"Farm Strips. definitley not, mainly because major EU governing countries don't allow that kind of field ... "
Some do, some don't.
IFR approval for Permit aircraft is in final testing stage - criteria should be finalized in 6 months. We will then have Permit, Strip, Mogas, Rotax, IFR!
Rod1
Re 21
Farm strips in Europe? Practically everywhere, as in Britain.
Mogas ? Manufacturers of Rotax specify its use and it is everywhere!
Rotax future? Further refinements to turbo charging and development of larger engines. (The future's bright; the future's Rotax)
Permit a/c? Numbers growing year on year (see LAA stats) as more convert and build.
Farm strips in Europe? Practically everywhere, as in Britain.
Mogas ? Manufacturers of Rotax specify its use and it is everywhere!
Rotax future? Further refinements to turbo charging and development of larger engines. (The future's bright; the future's Rotax)
Permit a/c? Numbers growing year on year (see LAA stats) as more convert and build.
Join Date: Apr 2002
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A peep into a possible future
Hi Squeege,
Your original question has inspired me to write what I think might happen to private flying in the foreseeable future. (I use the term private flying in order to exclude the corporate twins and 'aerial work' A/C and PPL/IRs flying £100,000 complex singles on business from what I am about to write).
In the mid-naughties I returned to flying after a break of many years. On looking round I found that the average flying club of any size seemed to own perhaps six or seven American-made SEP spamcans, half C152s built in the 80s the remainder Cherokee variants built in the 80s or 90s, all with complete blind flying panel. Then there would be a Seneca for twin training, a tail dragger, usually a Cub, and an aerobatic type such as a Bulldog or Decathlon and a complex single (i.e. perhaps an Arrow).
I remembered thinking to myself, why do even the most bog-standard SEPs here have full panel when most of the flying they do is by PPL/NPPL students and PPL/NPPL qualified pilots who only fly VFR? I also noted that the tail-dragger, aerobatic type, Arrow and Seneca seemed to fly relatively few hours compared to the basic SEPs. All these things cost money yet the club seemed to need to be 'all things to all men'.
I eventually came to the conclusion that the ordinary PPL/NPPL training was effectively subsidising the twin, aerobatic, complex single and taildragger flying. I wondered how long this could go on.
In terms of training then, it was possible to start off by gaining a PPL and then, if you wished, move on to a CPL, IR, FI, or even a modular ATPL.
A few years later we had the 'Credit Crunch' leading to the continuing financial crisis. This certainly knocked me out of the flying game and I'm sure many others as well. The government currently crows about 'Britain's recovery', but there is only the very barest recovery. Austerity is going to last for many years yet and will knock many more people out of flying over time.
The club where I did my flying in the mid naughties later changed hands and is now very much smaller than it was. All it has now are about 4 SEP spam-cans and a vintage tail-dragger. The spam-cans are all dependent upon imported American SEP spares and the tail-dragger will always be expensive to maintain.
I believe that a time is approaching when flying clubs will have to specialise and in particular set themselves up to cater for a pilot who has much less money than at present to spend on flying. The hourly rate will need to be brought down to under £100 per hour microlight and just over £100 for PPL/NPPL SEP. This might mean simpler aircraft operated off an unlicensed field.
In future, it may be that a person will obtain their PPL/NPPL or microlight equivalent at one club and then, if they wish and can afford it, travel much further from home to a club specialising only in either twin, or aeros, or complex touring, etc if that is what they want.
So the club doing basic PPL/NPPL flying may well also include three-axis micro-light flying also. So that a person might well commence on the ultra-light version of, say, the Jabiru or the Escapade and then later decide, either to remain on micros permanently or, if they wish to do more advanced flying, or carry more weight, convert onto the Group A Jabiru or Escapade. Only the tiny few wishing to go professional or fly for business will move to a specialised club to do more advanced work.
Well that's how I see it.
BP.
Your original question has inspired me to write what I think might happen to private flying in the foreseeable future. (I use the term private flying in order to exclude the corporate twins and 'aerial work' A/C and PPL/IRs flying £100,000 complex singles on business from what I am about to write).
In the mid-naughties I returned to flying after a break of many years. On looking round I found that the average flying club of any size seemed to own perhaps six or seven American-made SEP spamcans, half C152s built in the 80s the remainder Cherokee variants built in the 80s or 90s, all with complete blind flying panel. Then there would be a Seneca for twin training, a tail dragger, usually a Cub, and an aerobatic type such as a Bulldog or Decathlon and a complex single (i.e. perhaps an Arrow).
I remembered thinking to myself, why do even the most bog-standard SEPs here have full panel when most of the flying they do is by PPL/NPPL students and PPL/NPPL qualified pilots who only fly VFR? I also noted that the tail-dragger, aerobatic type, Arrow and Seneca seemed to fly relatively few hours compared to the basic SEPs. All these things cost money yet the club seemed to need to be 'all things to all men'.
I eventually came to the conclusion that the ordinary PPL/NPPL training was effectively subsidising the twin, aerobatic, complex single and taildragger flying. I wondered how long this could go on.
In terms of training then, it was possible to start off by gaining a PPL and then, if you wished, move on to a CPL, IR, FI, or even a modular ATPL.
A few years later we had the 'Credit Crunch' leading to the continuing financial crisis. This certainly knocked me out of the flying game and I'm sure many others as well. The government currently crows about 'Britain's recovery', but there is only the very barest recovery. Austerity is going to last for many years yet and will knock many more people out of flying over time.
The club where I did my flying in the mid naughties later changed hands and is now very much smaller than it was. All it has now are about 4 SEP spam-cans and a vintage tail-dragger. The spam-cans are all dependent upon imported American SEP spares and the tail-dragger will always be expensive to maintain.
I believe that a time is approaching when flying clubs will have to specialise and in particular set themselves up to cater for a pilot who has much less money than at present to spend on flying. The hourly rate will need to be brought down to under £100 per hour microlight and just over £100 for PPL/NPPL SEP. This might mean simpler aircraft operated off an unlicensed field.
In future, it may be that a person will obtain their PPL/NPPL or microlight equivalent at one club and then, if they wish and can afford it, travel much further from home to a club specialising only in either twin, or aeros, or complex touring, etc if that is what they want.
So the club doing basic PPL/NPPL flying may well also include three-axis micro-light flying also. So that a person might well commence on the ultra-light version of, say, the Jabiru or the Escapade and then later decide, either to remain on micros permanently or, if they wish to do more advanced flying, or carry more weight, convert onto the Group A Jabiru or Escapade. Only the tiny few wishing to go professional or fly for business will move to a specialised club to do more advanced work.
Well that's how I see it.
BP.
Just to agree with BroomstickPilot ..
After 40 + years in this game I had my eyes opened by this little fella..
How I wish these had been around when I was an instructor. Forget the microlight tag - this is a small light aircraft with good performance, honest handling and economy. For getting a new recruit up to a basic level (such as NPPL) it's all that's needed. Once you learnt how to fly on such a machine it would be a simple step up to say a Tecnam or similar.
After 40 + years in this game I had my eyes opened by this little fella..
How I wish these had been around when I was an instructor. Forget the microlight tag - this is a small light aircraft with good performance, honest handling and economy. For getting a new recruit up to a basic level (such as NPPL) it's all that's needed. Once you learnt how to fly on such a machine it would be a simple step up to say a Tecnam or similar.
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Strathaven Airfield
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BP,
Your future is our present, apart from the under £100 an hour!
When we bought Strathaven Airfield nine years ago, we traveled to see about 50 other airfields around the UK (and had memories of others we had flown into in the UK, Spain and the USA).
We saw the future as BMAA/LAA aircraft, like the Eurostar pictured. It seems we are correct, having gone from 3 aircraft at Strathaven to 31 at the last count - despite the credit crunch.
Have to disagree with the under £100 an hour, though.
In Strathaven, you can buy a one-bedroom flat from £15,000 / £18,000 / £20,000 - see UK's number one property website for properties for sale and to rent for postcode ML10. Yet the local garages charge around £60 per hour.
With a typical "one hour" lesson taking two hours in the diary because of ground briefs, refuelling, coffee, etc then we'd need to be £120 an hour just to match the garage!
Add in the fact that we only flew two days last February, or it is dark until 9:30am and dark again at 3:30pm in December (so two lessons and a trial flight, if you are lucky), then you can see the costs have to be higher than £120 an hour.
In fact, think of the cost of the equipment. I don't know anyone who leases Eurostars or C42s. So microlight schools have to purchase their own aircraft - even garages can lease their heavy gear.
So, again, someone somewhere has to pay that cost.
Yes, you may dream of sub-£100. But if it happens (and it does in places) it is simply not sustainable. Perhaps the owner is forgetting about depreciation (I saw a 2,800 hour C42 up for sale at £32k, and a few years ago we bought two 300 hour C42s for £39k) , perhaps his/her instructors are working for nothing because they have pensions etc. I even know of one school that used to charge its (assistant) FIs.
Cost is not a problem in flying. Have a look at yachting - and see how many boats there are in marinas!
Your future is our present, apart from the under £100 an hour!
When we bought Strathaven Airfield nine years ago, we traveled to see about 50 other airfields around the UK (and had memories of others we had flown into in the UK, Spain and the USA).
We saw the future as BMAA/LAA aircraft, like the Eurostar pictured. It seems we are correct, having gone from 3 aircraft at Strathaven to 31 at the last count - despite the credit crunch.
Have to disagree with the under £100 an hour, though.
In Strathaven, you can buy a one-bedroom flat from £15,000 / £18,000 / £20,000 - see UK's number one property website for properties for sale and to rent for postcode ML10. Yet the local garages charge around £60 per hour.
With a typical "one hour" lesson taking two hours in the diary because of ground briefs, refuelling, coffee, etc then we'd need to be £120 an hour just to match the garage!
Add in the fact that we only flew two days last February, or it is dark until 9:30am and dark again at 3:30pm in December (so two lessons and a trial flight, if you are lucky), then you can see the costs have to be higher than £120 an hour.
In fact, think of the cost of the equipment. I don't know anyone who leases Eurostars or C42s. So microlight schools have to purchase their own aircraft - even garages can lease their heavy gear.
So, again, someone somewhere has to pay that cost.
Yes, you may dream of sub-£100. But if it happens (and it does in places) it is simply not sustainable. Perhaps the owner is forgetting about depreciation (I saw a 2,800 hour C42 up for sale at £32k, and a few years ago we bought two 300 hour C42s for £39k) , perhaps his/her instructors are working for nothing because they have pensions etc. I even know of one school that used to charge its (assistant) FIs.
Cost is not a problem in flying. Have a look at yachting - and see how many boats there are in marinas!
Join Date: Apr 2002
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Future of private flying
Hi Xrayalpha,
First of all, let me congratulate you on your prescience and even more on your success; 31 aircraft - wow!
I am sure you must be right about the cost of hire issue. However, whatever prices are charged I believe the name of the game from now on has to be tight control on costs and close attention to cost-effectiveness.
Daily hours of flying is another issue. When I learned to fly at Manchester Barton in 1960 daily flying would finish by about 4 p.m. in the winter. But in summer, however, the last flight would land at perhaps 8 or 9 p.m. (civil twilight?). At the club I joined in the mid naughties mid-summer flying would finish at 6 p.m. thus wasting hours of daylight. I don't know why; it could have been on planning grounds or to do with noise abatement or staffing demand or the airfield licence. Whatever the reason I feel the loss of those hours too reduced the earning capacity of the club.
I am not convinced by your use of yachting as an analogy. If you have to give up your yacht for reasons of financial stringency you can always crew for other owners and we don't know how many of those yachts in the marina have been up for sale for ages or just being inadequately maintained or completely neglected.
Anyway, splendid news from Strathaven. Let me wish you continued good fortune. (The way the national economy is going you are going to need it; where 'austerity' is concerned we aint seen nuthin yet; just wait 'till after the next election).
Regards,
BP.
First of all, let me congratulate you on your prescience and even more on your success; 31 aircraft - wow!
I am sure you must be right about the cost of hire issue. However, whatever prices are charged I believe the name of the game from now on has to be tight control on costs and close attention to cost-effectiveness.
Daily hours of flying is another issue. When I learned to fly at Manchester Barton in 1960 daily flying would finish by about 4 p.m. in the winter. But in summer, however, the last flight would land at perhaps 8 or 9 p.m. (civil twilight?). At the club I joined in the mid naughties mid-summer flying would finish at 6 p.m. thus wasting hours of daylight. I don't know why; it could have been on planning grounds or to do with noise abatement or staffing demand or the airfield licence. Whatever the reason I feel the loss of those hours too reduced the earning capacity of the club.
I am not convinced by your use of yachting as an analogy. If you have to give up your yacht for reasons of financial stringency you can always crew for other owners and we don't know how many of those yachts in the marina have been up for sale for ages or just being inadequately maintained or completely neglected.
Anyway, splendid news from Strathaven. Let me wish you continued good fortune. (The way the national economy is going you are going to need it; where 'austerity' is concerned we aint seen nuthin yet; just wait 'till after the next election).
Regards,
BP.
