Be a bit careful getting a share in any cessna until this has worked its way through the system. You could end up loosing the lot with nothing to show for it.
And I am mindful that quite a view peoples pride and joy are going to be effected by this.
I am also mindful that quite a few zero equity groups are going to fold and some maybe trying to have a last ditch at recovering some of there captial.
I think that Jock is on the money ( or lack of it) with this one !
The SID's will be a big issue in terms of cost and undoubtedly will sink the types of group who have been under maintaining their aircraft for years, the SID's checks have already been quoted on these pages to cost € 6000 but that is for the basic check, it will be the defects discovered that will be the real sting in the tail in terms of cost.
My advice would be to not invest one penny in a Cessna untill the dust has settled, I also predict that by this time next year a tidy C152 with a half life engine and all the SID's checks done will cost IRO £42-45K.
My advice would be to not invest one penny in a Cessna untill the dust has settled, I also predict that by this time next year a tidy C152 with a half life engine and all the SID's checks done will cost IRO £42-45K.
I've done everything from sole-ownership to 1/20th share via 1/2, 1/3, 1/8 and 1/17.
The worst availability I ever had was with sole ownership, because when anything went wrong, it was always mine to sort out from my limited flying-time available.
1/8th is pretty optimal because the useage tends to be such that I can still treat it as *my* aeroplane when I want it, but I only get 1/8th of the effort to deal with any issues on my lap, and 1/8th of the fixed running costs.
But, 1/20th still works well enough and is a route to very cheap flying.
There may be another side to this. As the C150/152 fleets become unaffordable, some cheap flying might become an option as owners get ready to fly them into the ground.
With the deadline date approaching, any unused engine hours would be better flown, than lost to paperwork and a 6,000 Euro bill for looking at what the next bill is going to be.
There will also be a load of engines that don't get slotted into that category and will have hours left. So I'd expect a lot more engine swaps for 500 hours of life than refurbished airframes.
following on from airpolice's thoughts, it occurs to me, there will be a large number of lycont's sitting around, looking for a new home in a suitable Permit machine.
In the nature of things, I'd expect them to be at bargain-basement prices.
worth a thought?
Following on from airpolice's thoughts, it occurs to me, there will be a large number of lycont's sitting around, looking for a new home in a suitable Permit machine.
In the nature of things, I'd expect them to be at bargain-basement prices. worth a thought?
Hope so, will pick myself up a cheap spare 0-200 in case mine ever goes pop! Hopefully not for a while though since its only go about 150hrs on it though it does tend to get worked pretty hard....
Steve is suggesting buying the engines once I've flown as many as hours as I can before the airframes needs inspecting.
The value of the aircraft as a short term hour builder and then a spares bin may well outstrip even the most optimistic value of an inspected and repaired airframe.
I can see more Flight Sim fans getting a full front cockpit section real cheap and converting the garage like Steve Masson did for his Airbus.
As for the effect on schools, I think it will lead to a thinning of some fleets and better utilisation rates of the remaining airframes. That can only be good for everyone. Lower insurance and loads of "free" spares once you write off the aircraft not worth saving, which will normally be the oldest.
You make the mistake of thinking the price for a well sorted ready to work C152 is what you see in the in the classified adverts in the aviation press, the good ones chance hands for a great deal more.
The £17K Cessna 152 will not be ready to earn any money and will require £15-19K to get the aircraft up to a standard to work for a living......... And this is at before SID's prices.
The SID's give a total airframe life of 30,000 hours for the C152 with most of the UK fleet in currently in the 9-14,000 hour range the £42-45K price reflects an airframe that will outlast most of the current crop of Rotax powered aircraft at half the price.
The £17K Cessna 152 will not be ready to earn any money and will require £15-19K to get the aircraft up to a standard to work for a living
That's exactly the airframes we are talking about. Not the good stuff, the scrappy under maintained ex school hacks that are beyond either the means of their owners or are just outclassed by other stuff available cheaper than a rebuild.
Who is going to pay £45,000 for an old C152 when you can get (less of) a nearly new aircraft for that money?
What's a scabby 152 going to be worth in two years from now, needing £20,000 spent on it when the 1,000 hours engine will turn into £7,500 and the rest of it probably £2,500 for spares?
Would it not be better to fly all the hours you can, right up to the inspection date and then break it?
Ypu are not listening to wha t I am saying, a fully sorted Mid airframe & engine life C152 with all the SID's done represents a very good deal IRO £ 43K!
What else can you buy that will give you another 15,000 hours in the training business ? It's much cheaper that the others and most of them ate unlikely to see the other side of 5000 hours.
