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The imminent death of US aviation

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The imminent death of US aviation

Old 8th May 2017, 20:04
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The imminent death of US aviation

Since the FAA brought in the rule for a SIC to have 1500 hours and an ATP in order to sit in the right seat of a Part 121 airliner we have seen many signs that this is going to destroy the aviation industry in this country.

Many regional airlines have gone out of business, along with many regional airports, due to the reduction of pilots and therefore the inability to crew airplanes, causing the airlines to drop flights and instead to increase load factors in the remaining flights. This also causes a lot of air rage due to the full flights, and the remaining pilots are working harder, flying more hours and getting less time off, increasing fatigue.

Wages have gone up but it is not helping.

The number of pilots in the US has declined about 40 percent over the last 5 years.

Airlines no longer require a degree as a condition of employment.

Nobody fails a check ride any more because there are too few pilots to plug into the schedule if that happens, instead the check rides are modular so you might fail a part of the ride but only have to repeat that bit to pass.

The majors used to recruit youngsters with about 500 hours and train them their way, so that they could become valuable PICs after some 5 to 8 years. Those youngsters do not exist any longer because practically nobody is learning to fly with the intent of becoming an airline pilot any longer. Getting 1500 hours in order to be allowed to knock on a door for a SIC job would take 8 to 12 years, and involve a lot of expense and effort for very little return. No wonder High School graduates, who were the seed corn for the industry, are not considering aviation as a career any longer.

As you go down the industry to Part 135 and Part 91, you see that the shortage of pilots bites harder. The majors might be able to buy enough pilots but that is at the expense of the smaller operators, who cannot do this without going out of business. There is no stability in the pilot ranks any longer.

Flight training is down in all fields. Flight schools are going out of business. Flying as a CFI to gain experience is a losing prospect due to no activity, lots of sitting around waiting for a student to come in. Except for the flight schools that train foreign pilots; they are going gangbusters.

I talk to the FAA about this (I need pilots and cannot get them. My preferred pool now is retired airline pilots and they are burnt out at over 65 and do not want to fly any longer so they are an endangered breed. The last two pilots I managed to start (Part 135) were over 65 [one was 74] and one was not even a US citizen because none are available with the qualifications I need). Turnover is incredible there is such demand in the airlines for pilots.

Some of the FAA people I talk to acknowledge the problem and accept that this rule is a major driver of the pilot shortage problem but some claim the demand for pilots is due to an uptick in business or low salaries being paid, both patently false statements. Another said that the rule was written by Congress and they had no say. Could not stop it. Funny, I did not see anything at the time that indicated the FAA was not in favor of the rule nor was there much opportunity to protest (and I did protest).

There is a big demand for pilots in Asia and the Middle East, many experienced pilots from the US are taking advantage of that. The USAF does not have any spare capacity and retirements from there are not filling the gap.

The shortage is biting not only here but also in Australia and Europe, so obviously there are other factors driving this. Adding the 1500 hour rule to an industry that is already in decline was bad judgment at the least.

Foreign pilots do not have to meet the 1500 hour/ATP rule so they have a competitive edge. When they get 1500 hours they will jump ship maybe and save our industry for us. I forecast that we will see a lot of foreign pilots flying our skies soon, if we are to survive.

If the FAA backs off today, and goes back to a more reasonable rule (500 hours and a Commercial Certificate?), it would take 8 years to recover, maybe longer. A once great industry, broken by bureaucracy and idiocy.
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Old 9th May 2017, 01:19
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No pilot shortage at the U.S. major/legacy/cargo carriers. Still thousands of well qualified, experienced candidates with no blemishes and college degrees out there and carriers are still being very selective.
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Old 9th May 2017, 03:54
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I agree that there is not currently a pilot shortage but rather a shortage of people willing to work for slave like wages.
Long term though Though this will have a big effect on new pilots entering the industry
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Old 9th May 2017, 06:28
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Booghead, so what you're really saying is your business model of getting newbies to fly for food stamps isn't working anymore?

I'd say the industry is on the up and it will stabilize and the bottom feeders will eventually be kicked out
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Old 9th May 2017, 07:39
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Originally Posted by boofhead
Another said that the rule was written by Congress and they had no say. Could not stop it. Funny, I did not see anything at the time that indicated the FAA was not in favor of the rule nor was there much opportunity to protest (and I did protest).
Well, like I told you last time you went on this tiresome rant, that's absolute fact. Congress passed a law that the FAA *would* enact that. End of story. If congress passes a law, the FAA has absolutely no say on whether to comply. They may try to advise congress prior to passage that it's a bad idea, but congress is free to disregard their opinion. The bottom line is, the FAA may express an opinion, but Congress makes the laws, and they may choose to disregard any and all input they receive. Once congress passes the law, it's completely out of the FAAs hands. They no longer have any choice. This is the way it works. Maybe it works differently back in Oz, I don't know. I don't have a very good understanding of Australian lawmaking and regulation. But I think the same is painfully obvious about you and US government. You really have no functional understanding of how the US government works, otherwise you wouldn't persist with this drivel about how the FAA should have "fought" this. When congress passes a law that the FAA *will* enact such and such regulation, the fight is over.



In case anyone is tempted to think I'm being unduly harsh on you, I'll quote you from another thread in which you were ranting about this.

Originally Posted by boofhead
As a confirmed conspiracy theorist I believe that the FAA has knowingly done this to kill aviation in the USA.
Aside from your refusal to grasp, despite being told many times, that the decision to pass the law was by by Congress, not the FAA, I think it's useful to have an example of the level of rationality with which you approach this issue.

You still haven't explained why you think the 1500/ATP requirement for Part 121 would cause a 4000 hour pilot to choose a 121 carrier over your operation. A guy with 4000 multi turbine time is obviously well beyond 1500/ATP minimums, so it pretty much comes down to how does your terms of employment compare to other options.


I'll say again what I said in a past thread in which you were bemoaning how the 1500/ATP rule was destroying your business: I have your minimums. I have several times your minimums, in fact. Most of it Multi time. Most of it Alaska time. Plenty of it Turbine Time. It would be great to fly your Conquest around Alaska and be home most nights. I live about a half mile from your office, I could walk to work.

So, what's are you offering? Give me a complete run-down of the terms and conditions. Salary? Monthly Guarantee? Per flight hour? Schedule? Days off per month? How long am I on call for on a reserve day? 8 hr? 12 Hr/day? 24 hr/day? What's the company contribution to the 401K? Medical benefits? How much is the employee co-pay for the medical? What's covered? How much paid vacation per year?

Last time I asked this, you got awfully quiet and didn't answer the question. Not sure why; if you're looking to hire pilots, and you believe that your terms and conditions are competitive, there's no reason I can see to be shy about posting them.

So, how about it?????
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Old 9th May 2017, 14:01
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@Boofhead, no, the 1500-hour rule is not the reason kids don't want to be professional pilots. You may be too young to remember 20 years ago, when the regionals and budget airlines weren't scooping up every kid with a license at less than minimum wage. Back then, most of the commercial flying in the U.S. was done by about seven major airlines, and they wouldn't consider an application without 3,000 hours unless it was space shuttle time. Or you knew someone high in management.

Look up "pay to fly". That was how desperate kids were to get to the majors. They flew for free or paid to fly, lived with their parents, had another job to pay bills. Most airline pilots came from the military, another tough way to get there, and the civilian route was brutal.

Insurance statistics put commercial piloting as one of the most dangerous jobs in the U.S. A lot of kids died hauling checks and night freight in barely-instrumented Cessnas at night, in weather, and working a day job to pay the bills.

Why did kids go through this? Because an airline pilot career was once fantastic. Even when it no longer was, kids still dreamed and believed, and threw themselves into the meat grinder to get to a myth. Then the internet happened. Kids read about regional pilots, past middle-age and raising kids their age, barely paying bills and living out of a suitcase in cheap hotels. Kids aren't any smarter than we were, but they are a lot better informed.

The industry changed, airlines cut pilot compensation and conditions below what can attract new pilots into the profession. Momentum kept feeding cheap pilots up the system and into your low-paying company, but there have been no pilots entering it for many years now. It is time to pay the piper.

Either raise your prices high enough to pay and attract pilots, or go out of business. That is what the major airlines and cargo-lines expected to happen, all of their low-cost competition will go out of business and they will make huge profits. They are already making record profits, the plan is working, they aren't about to change anything.

Eventually only the majors will be left, and the economy will be reeling from loss of so much aviation infrastructure. Then the remaining airlines will get pretty much any rule changes they ask for, life for pilots will continue to suck.

You are part of the problem, and don't seem to mind that you have helped destroy a profession. All you care is there aren't enough suckers still entering the system to keep your costs low.
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Old 9th May 2017, 17:51
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There have been discussions by the FAA to change the 1500 rule so your statement that they have to live with it is patently untrue. Similarly the reduction in time for USAF pilots to fly for the airlines as well as the offer to allow serving USAF pilots to moonlight (not followed up yet). The rule can be changed and will be changed when enough pressure is brought to bear.

The airlines cannot find any 1500 hour pilots because they do not exist. It takes time for the previous candidates to get enough time to be eligible, at maybe 200 hours a year it would take 5 years for the previous airline SIC applicants to become qualified under the new rule therefore the airlines have had to draw from the older, higher time pilots, which are the ones my outfit uses. These pilots would normally not be considered for the airline job; would already be passed over and they would be normally making a living in the 135 world.

Now they have become fresh meat and are paid more than the 135 outfits can ever pay, plus they offer a career including jets, unions, travel and such (I have done that so I know the attraction) not available in the world I now work. I lose more pilots than I can train every year and cannot retain the experienced pilots even if the salaries were doubled.

I cannot use the low time pilots, I need experienced PICs that I can send out single pilot IFR to fly to small gravel runways that might be soft or icy and judgment is not something that can be trained. I don't know you (do I?) but not everyone can do what I need and keep the operation safe. If you infer that 135 operators are not interested in safety you are wrong. One accident will put a small outfit out of business. We will not fly if the conditions do not meet the ORM/training/experience/weather requirements and we take safety seriously. We walk the walk, and in fact I know how airlines (121) work and I believe we have higher standards. We need to.

If we doubled or even increased the pay too much we would go out of business. Our customers can do more now with email/Skype/Gotomeeting etc and do not need to visit as often as they might have done in the past so they will not charter us if we raise the costs too high. The economy is down and there is not as much work for us as there was so there is no money lying around to pay pilots. Reality.

Gas is way higher here than elsewhere in the US, runways are not maintained well and even to get a runway report after hours would cost thousands of dollars paid to the DOT for a service they are supposed to provide as part of their charter. Weather services are poor and the AWOS/Camera services provided by the Feds are down when you need them, sometimes down for months at a time. In many cases flying in Alaska is tough and only a careful and experienced pilot can do this job. If his interest in working for me is only for the money, I don't need him.

I have a lot of pilots apply, few have the hours, fewer have the right sort of hours. Just a few years ago I would not have even invited them in for an interview because their experience did not meet the requirements. Now I have no such luxury and I have an open door but very few make the cut. Unlike the majors I have no apprenticeship plan. My guys must be able to go out on day one and do the job safely. I know that some of the airlines will take a low time pilot and give him a Caravan or 207 to cut his teeth on; how is that working out?

Many only want a second part time job and seem to think they are doing me a favor by offering a few days a month (not necessarily the same days I need them) and if they only fly a couple of times a month how safe do you think they might be then? If they cannot do the job safely should I reward them by paying them more? Give them a bonus? Pension? Company car?

My point is that the rule requiring 1500 hours and an ATP is a bad rule that has unintended consequences. I know that the Regionals are hurting as we are. I can read and I listen. For example there are signing bonuses being offered to those who have the minimums or more that exceed what a 135 pilot would expect to get as a total salary for a year. How can I hold a pilot then? I have to use older pilots who have already completed an airline career and have reached retirement age. In the old days that guy would be 60+ and still have a few years left of energy and enthusiasm. Now he is 65+ and worn out (not all, but many). So if the rule was meant to improve the 121 world, it is costing us in the 135.

If you can read you must know the damage that the pilot shortage is causing. I know that flight training is down. I know this by personal observation and by talking to those in the training industry. Without new blood aviation is doomed. Doomed I say! This is the guts of the problem. If there were still pilots coming into the industry, if there was still the old level of flight training being conducted, if a youngster could see a chance of a career, there would be enough pilots to support aviation as we knew it. Without the new blood the numbers will continue to fall. Standards will continue to drop. More youngsters will turn their nose up at aviation. Drones will take over many segments of the business. Those in the industry now will work harder, get more money, but the industry will dry up and eventually go away. Maybe I am too pessimistic but that's the way I see it.

I just love the attitude of the major airline pilots. "I'm all right Jack". So long as I get mine to hell with the rest of you. Unfortunately that means to hell with the industry and to hell with the future.

Last edited by boofhead; 9th May 2017 at 18:02. Reason: Added
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Old 9th May 2017, 18:01
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No pilot shortage at Emirates. Emirates will park planes before accepting a pilot to be below their standards.
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Old 9th May 2017, 18:05
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boofhead
There never was and will never be a pilot shortage. Every pilot fair I've been too in the last few years has a lot of people showing up. Long lines to talk to recruiters and recruiters being very selective on who they choose to interview and hire.

As for the checkride, you seem wrong as well. I know of people who didn't do well in the initial sim for new hire and were asked to leave. There are still sadistic examiners out there trying to pull all sorts of tricks to fail trainees. There are still instructors that can't teach, are not standardized and fail to adequately prepare their students to be successful for the checkride and IOE.

Finally, pilot pay, while finally coming up is still short of what it should be and has not risen to the levels of other quality skilled positions such as being an engineer or doctor. In fact, I know someone making $125K a year to sit in a room and fly drones. He has a stable schedule, sleeps in his own bed every night and is able to see his family.
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Old 9th May 2017, 22:36
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I guess that the articles published by trade magazines and online reporting concerning the shortage are not in your reading list, nor do you actively fly as a CFI, where you will see very few applicants for the commercial certificate, much less the ATP compared to several years ago, and you will not have read the advertisements for pilots from the regional carriers offering huge salaries and bonuses, including offers of a 2 day guaranteed course to pass the ATP written, nor would you have been working or supervising at a Part 135 or 91 operation where there are few, if any, suitable applicants for the many vacant positions, nor talked to any of the small airport managers in the country who have had to shut the doors of their terminals because the number of flights -per - day has dropped below the level needed for them to pay the salaries and remain open, nor worked as a CFI and had only two students per week despite being at the school with your several buddies who also have had nothing to do.

Never mind, you are doing OK and able to take advantage of the fabulous offers of employment at huge salaries. If there are no pilots coming into the industry to replace you and the others who have moved up, what is it to you? If they shutter more airports, close more flight training schools and bankrupt more regional carriers, that is not your affair, right? Why should you care one whit so long as your salary is paid on time?

Or maybe you are right and I am just imagining it all. There are actually lots of qualified pilots out there, all experienced and great at CRM, ORM, can read a QRH and a GOM with the best of them, are able with a single bound to jump into any airplane out there and fly it well, safely and with great enthusiasm so long as the pay is fantastic so they will feel loved. I should judge applicants not on how well they will do the job I want them to do but on how much money they want and the more money the better they must be, right? After all money equals safety and besides, this industry is such low risk that nobody would be hurt if they screw it up.

Maybe I am wrong. Maybe my refusal to employ pilots who are "qualified" and merely suffering from money deprivation is in error. My judgment that they will not do the job I want them to do or are incapable of doing it because despite the paper qualifications they cannot perform it effectively or safely must be wrong too. It is amazing to me how the injection of money into one's bank account will increase ability and skill instantly.

Maybe my opinion that I will pay the going rate at first and increase the pay of a pilot who shows me that I can trust his skills and know he can do the job safely is not the way to do it. I should just pay more and that will magically overcome any reservations I might have.

Of course your opinion that only the majors are capable of making those judgements must also be true.

How about you point me to just one trade article detailing the problem is my imagination. Or show me the FAA statement refuting their previous info of the sudden and precipitous drop in pilot numbers and drop in pilot certificates issued. Or take a photo of your local flight school filled with active students all wanting to fly commercially.

The foreign airlines faced this problem years ago and have for a long time run their own flight schools, often in other countries where the weather is more suitable and private flying is encouraged (like here). Some of our own airlines are starting to do the same, but it takes years to get a youngster up to the point where he can sit in the right seat of an airliner even with their numbers. One of the Asian airlines I flew for gave me copilots on the 747 who had a grand total of 400 hours in an effort to keep up. We insist on 1500 hours just to apply and we think this is a good idea?

Ah, but you are right and I am wrong. I should read the same magazines and trade publications and watch the same TV you obviously do to assuage my concern for the once-great industry we had in this country and learn to accept second class. After all, it is not as if a lowering of standards will result in more accidents and fatalities, will it?

I hope my opinion of such short-sightedness and ignorance does not come on too strongly.
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Old 9th May 2017, 23:15
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Look at this if you really want to know the facts: https://www.mba.aero/wp-content/uplo...ge_article.pdf

And this: The Coming U.S. Pilot Shortage Is Real | Commercial Aviation content from Aviation Week

And this: Impending Pilot Shortage, a Developing National Crisis | Military.com

And this: http://www.intervistas.com/downloads...te%20Paper.pdf

Need more? There is plenty of information if you wanted to become informed.

BUT! You guys have the answer! Why not share it with the experts? Simply pay MORE! An extra $10,000 a year is the equivalent of 10,000 hours of flight time! Want someone able to fly a twin turbo prop single pilot IFR even if he would not know a Kingair from a Kia? Pay him $20,000 a year more and his Student certificate will magically change to Commercial! Another $10,000 and he would have an ATP! Boy I wish I was as smart as you guys.


YES! The only reason for the pilot shortage in the Regionals and lower is a lack of salary! Ask an airline pilot! He knows! Who is that behind the curtain? The magical Wizard of ALPA!

Pardon the sarcasm, unless it was so subtle you did not notice it.
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Old 10th May 2017, 00:29
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Old 10th May 2017, 00:58
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Oh I like that, thank you!

Made my day.
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Old 10th May 2017, 01:51
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There are not pilots because the cost of training is astronomical.
When I was taking my lessons
The instructor was $18-20
C172 was $70 and C310 was $125 an hour. Now the instructor is $85 and a C172 $160. Right now if you get your CFI take you less than 2 years to get 1500 hrs. Is nothing.
Getting to the CFI the biggest problem. I know couple parents that can't send their kids to taking flying lessons. They don't have an extra $1000 a month for flying.

Last edited by ra4000; 10th May 2017 at 02:03.
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Old 10th May 2017, 02:27
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Originally Posted by havick
Booghead, so what you're really saying is your business model of getting newbies to fly for food stamps isn't working anymore?

I'd say the industry is on the up and it will stabilize and the bottom feeders will eventually be kicked out
Well said Papi Chulo. The original poster has ulterior motives, speaks English as a second or third language and got used to having young aviators kiss his arse.
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Old 10th May 2017, 03:07
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Originally Posted by boofhead
There have been discussions by the FAA to change the 1500 rule so your statement that they have to live with it is patently untrue.
But just a few months ago, you were saying:

Originally Posted by boofhead
As a confirmed conspiracy theorist I believe that the FAA has knowingly done this to kill aviation in the USA.
So which is it? The FAA is behind the law, or the FAA wants to get rid of it? You understand that you don't improve your credibility by making diametrically opposed statements on an issue, right?

That aside, what "discussions" and by who? Having your POI say he'd like to change the rule is pretty different than the top level in Washington discussing it that. I'm pretty skeptical that you're privy to the latter. Even if they'd like to change it, they can't. The rule is in place because it was mandated by Congress. For some reason you can't seem to wrap your head around that concept. I'm not sure why. It's a pretty simple concept. I'll explain it one more time (although I'm not fooling myself that you'll understand it this time either) The FAA is part of the Executive branch of the US. As such, they are required to "faithfully Execute" laws passed by Congress. This is in our Constitution. For the most part, the FAA has a lot of latitude to write regulations (different from "laws") as long as it falls within the laws passed by Congress. On occasion, Congress passes a law which says that the FAA *shall* make a regulation. This is one of those cases. Congress indeed passed a law explicitly requiring the FAA to put a regulation in place requiring an ATP for Part 121 airlines. This isn't something the FAA can disregard, nor can they go back later and say "Well, we don't like this regulation, so we're going to change it" The only way the FAA can change this is if Congress, passes *another* law, amending the first law to remove the mandate for ATPs for Airline pilots.

That's the way the system works. End of story. And every time you say "the FAA is going to do this" or "the FAA should have done this" or "It's the FAA's fault we have this" all you do is make yourself look foolish and underscore the fact that you don't understand how the government in the US works.
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Old 10th May 2017, 03:12
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My company hires 70 pilots a month and has outpaced attrition for two years straight. We have grown by over 600 pilots in two years, and we are not a major airline. The pilot shortage hasn't really hit yet. There's lots of movement right now and pilots can pretty much pick the job they want. And to say that nobody fails training anymore is inaccurate.
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Old 10th May 2017, 04:27
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Boofhead,

I don't know how long you've been in Alaska, do you recall the 1990's ? Back then Air taxis had all the pilots they wanted and more. As an example, back in that era Yute Air (Yes, the same Yute Air which recently went out of business ... again.) required applicants to go through a training program. They called it "Alaska Transition Training" or some such nonsense. It cost the applicant something like $2800 (or was it $3800 ? ) cash up front. Successful completion of the training didn't get you a job. No, it got you in the "Hiring pool". The "hiring pool", for a job flying single engine Cessnas.

Guess what? those days are over. Things are different now in the pilot market, and if you want to hire pilots, you have to be competitive in the market. All the nostalgia about how great things used to be when pilots would pay you isn't going to make pilots take a job which pays less than other jobs.



Originally Posted by A Squared
So, what's are you offering? Give me a complete run-down of the terms and conditions. Salary? Monthly Guarantee? Per flight hour? Schedule? Days off per month? How long am I on call for on a reserve day? 8 hr? 12 Hr/day? 24 hr/day? What's the company contribution to the 401K? Medical benefits? How much is the employee co-pay for the medical? What's covered? How much paid vacation per year?

Last time I asked this, you got awfully quiet and didn't answer the question. Not sure why; if you're looking to hire pilots, and you believe that your terms and conditions are competitive, there's no reason I can see to be shy about posting them.

So, how about it?????

Yeah, about what I expected, crickets. And we all know why.

Look, you can yap on all you want about how you can't make a pilot better by paying more, but you're not that stupid. You understand as well as everyone else that if you want to attract well qualified, experienced applicants, the terms and conditions you are offering have to be attractive to the applicants, compared to their other employment options. That's market economics.

Why would an experienced pilot go to work being on call 24 hours a day, with few or no scheduled days off per month, pay which is substantially lower than other pilot positions and few benefits, when he could have better pay, a better schedule, more time off and better benefits elsewhere?

Look, you can jump up and down all you want and should that your terms and conditions are "reasonable" but if pilots aren't applying, then they're not reasonable. Not in today's Job Market.


"reasonable" doesn't mean "no more than what I want to pay".

"Reasonable" means what it takes to get pilots to go to work for you, given their other options.

It's that simple.

Last edited by A Squared; 10th May 2017 at 06:16. Reason: x
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Old 10th May 2017, 05:29
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The shortage is biting not only here but also in Australia and Europe, so obviously there are other factors driving this.
There is no pilot shortage in Australia.

I'm not sure which source you are using but it is patently incorrect.

Vacant pilot positions at all levels in the Australian industry from GA through to Airlines are oversubscribed with many qualified yet disappointed, unsuccessful applicants.

As for the States (where I once worked)...I agree with previous posts. There is a shortage of wannabe monkeys willing to work for the peanuts offered by the Part 91 and 135 worlds.

The only real pilot shortage is for type-rated, direct entry Captains willing to work in the fast growing developing world (i.e. Asia...especially China)
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Old 10th May 2017, 05:43
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I learned to fly in the mid-90's. I went to a 4 year college and then instructed afterward. It took me a year of instructing to get the 1100 hours that regionals were requiring at the time. Yes, the hiring minimums were 1100tt/100me for most all of the regionals in the late 90's. And it only took me a year of instructing to build that amount of time. So you saying that it takes 3 or 4 years of instructing is just not true.

The real reason pilot starts are down was touched on just a few posts ago. It is the extremely high cost of training. I believe it was shortly after 9/11 happened that training costs skyrocketed. I don't know if it was due to insurance requirements or just greedy flight schools. I think a little of both. But it has nothing at all to do with the ATP requirement at 121 carriers. People just can't afford to drop the kind of money that it takes to get your CFI's with the end result being a job that doesn't pay enough to pay back those student loans.

This is the power of the internet at work. People are just more informed today than they were back in the 80's and 90's.

I just reread your original post and came across this, Getting 1500 hours in order to be allowed to knock on a door for a SIC job would take 8 to 12 years, . Why would it take 8-12 years? That is only flying 125-187 hours per year. Who does that that is trying to get to an airline? NO ONE!!!
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