US Legacy Age 65 Retirements

[bafanguy]

misd-agin,

I agree. "required internals" is a real-world, functional, unofficial, results-based notion...and a bit sloppy wording on my part. That's why I said, "...almost a requirement...".

Obviously, people get selected for interview without internals but internals sure grease the skids. I know of one legacy that set up an email address specifically dedicated to accepting internal recs...FACT. That would appear to be a strong indication they're important.

I don't know that any carrier makes internals a make-or-break, published requirement.

But, wanna get called ? The more internals a person has, the better his chances. The legacies are swamped with apps from people who meet, and far exceed, the published quals. The US has pilots running out its ears.

[and what to do after getting the call...to survive the interview is another subject entirely...requiring its own thread]

It's a jungle out there. And Jungle Rules apply.

Sorta makes me glad to be retired...and not job hunting.

[boofhead]

I manage a Part 135 operation. After the 1500 hour/ATP requirement for Part 121 came in I have found that I cannot find qualified pilots. I used to get applications around 3 a week from qualified people now I get none. I had a bunch of full time pilots but now I rely on part timers because I lost all my good guys to the majors and freight carriers. I do part time flight instructing and no longer have anybody wanting to learn to fly to be a commercial pilot.

I believe that it is now impossible to fail a check ride in the airlines because there are no replacements available. I have seen some of the smaller airlines upgrading their guys to command with as little as 1800 hours. Pilots are flying longer hours with fewer days off because there are not enough to man the number of airplanes the carriers want to fly, many airplanes are being put out to pasture because of a lack of pilots and many airports are shutting down because of the drop in frequency of airplane movements required to get the FAA subsidy.

The military does not release many pilots any longer, they have cut back their own training and pay bonuses to keep the ones they have.

They say that the problem was the Colgan accident, which was not caused by low time pilots without ATPs but by pilots who were fatigued and did not follow the correct stall procedures. The PIC was reported to have failed several check rides. The 1500 hour rule does nothing to fix these problems, in fact it makes them worse.

As a confirmed conspiracy theorist I believe that the FAA has knowingly done this to kill aviation in the USA. Maybe they all want to retire on full pensions.

Consider a youngster who wants a career as an airline pilot. She must get a degree first, so that will take 4 years. She is now 22. Then she has to get 1500 hours. How to do that? Be a CFI? Fly the Geico banner? Work in the bush flying a PA28? How long to get 1500 hours? 7 years? 10?

So at a minimum age of 32 she is now qualified to knock on the door of the airline and apply for a job that pays $20,000 to $30,000 a year and with loans around $500,000.

Nobody would ever see that as a reasonable course and they are proving it by staying away from aviation. The only training going on in the USA is for the foreign airlines, who will continue to put those pilots into the right seats of their 777 and 747s with 400 hours total. And compete with the US carriers.

Even if they increase the retiring age to 70 it will not solve the problem of attrition, it will only delay it. We are becoming quite good at kicking the can down the road.

[Spooky 2]

So much mis-information in the above post that it really should removed. Where do you come up with stuff like this?

[boofhead]

It is commonly talked about online.

Pilot Shortage: Regional Airlines Are Cutting Flights - Businessweek

http://airinsight.com/2014/05/16/the-pilot-shortage/

http://news.yahoo.com/video/pilot-sh...NfMQRzZWMDc2M-

The US airline industry?s pilot shortage | Aspire Aviation

The Pilot Shortage 2015 and Beyond | Coast Flight Training | Coastflight

Fact and Fallacy of the Looming ?Pilot Shortage?

The Pilot Shortage Is Real and Regional Airlines Are Feeling It ? Skift

Pilot Shortage Hitting Home at Racca Member Airlines | Air Transport News: Aviation International News

IWF -The Pilot Shortage Made in Congress

This enough for you?

[bafanguy]

The issue of "pilot shortage" is incredibly complex and data dependent, some of which isn't even available as it's driven by events which no one can foretell and/or companies won't disclose. I don't see a way for a conclusion about its existence to be reduced to small scale, anecdotal bits & pieces.

Mike McGee's RAND study is probably the best one I've seen (and I've tried to read every one I can find) as it's not produced by an organization with an economic and/or political stake in having the study indicate one conclusion or the other.

With all the hiring at the US legacy level, or near-legacy level, the domino effect will produce pressures in other segments of the industry as people try to move up to move to circumstances they feel are "better", ultimately a purely individual, subjective word. Some amount of time will be required for industry adjustments to events; pilots can't be cranked out like Fords on an assembly line.

I remain a very serious skeptic about a "shortage" as the term is somewhat undefined. And without an agreed upon definition, everyone is speaking a different language when trying to discuss all of this.

[and of course, I could just be completely WRONG ! :-)]

At any rate, my only interest in starting this thread was to let our non-US amigos see some properly-sourced, hard data about what's happening at the Big Three (or Four...or Five ?) over here...just for grins & giggles. Circumstances elsewhere in the world are not part of this particular matter.

The shortage issue is a very different subject and time will reveal the facts.

[boofhead]

The 65 issue is a factor indeed. I can assure you that the lack of qualified pilots has a very real and deleterious effect on the smaller Part 121 and many Part 135 operations already, with few if any youngsters coming up to take their place. Without the support for the base, the entire aviation industry can collapse, or standards will have to be dropped so far that our present exemplary efficiency and safety will become history.

[bafanguy]

Boof,

I'm not convinced this statement is accurate in the US: "…with few if any youngsters coming up to take their place."

Are you familiar with the Aviation Accreditation Board International ? You can find details on their website but they represent university aviation programs and have for quite a while.

Here are the university flight programs, so far:

Aviation Accreditation Board International Accredited Programs

Some have been in existence for 50+ years.

I contacted my long time acquaintance whose entire career has been pilot education and who has been affiliated with AABI for a very long time. I asked him what percentage of the training slots these schools represent are now filled by students. He said:

"I don’t know exact percentages, but I think everyone is basically doing well, with strong enrollments."

He did say he wonders if these schools are able to fill the demand over time but was speaking of the university system AABI represents, IIUC; there are also many other commercial training organizations from big schools (ATP, American Flyers, etc.) to mom-and-pop flight schools…even experiments like Jetblue's proposed ab initio program (details/impact/copycats yet to come).

The military has seemingly been cutting back and some UPT grads are being sent to drones so that traditional source may be less than in previous decades.

Things here are in flux with every day being a new day. There'll be pain short term and it sounds like you're experiencing some of it.

I have strong confidence in the ability of the market here to respond to demand despite the heavy, incompetent hand of government. We're not Kazakhstan…we have the practiced, long-proven infrastructure in place to respond to market demand even if it takes a while…and it certainly will.

And, yes, this all can change with the next economic upheaval or geopolitical disaster.

[SextanteUK]

Recession and hiring

I was talking to a friend few weeks ago, and we agreed that with this retirement numbers, even if we get a HUGE recession, they will still hire, at a lower pace, but they will have to, in our opinion.

We are not talking about a few hundred retirements here and there, we are talking about thousands and thousands.

On the other hand, and I admit that it's sad, but since recessions are now something more and more common, the economy suffers a lot, layoffs everywhere, etc etc....but at the same time people will keep travelling, won't just sit waiting, they'll for opportunities and stuff like that.

So if we are talking about I don't know, 12-14,000 retirements in the next 20 years? (no idea about the precise number), maybe with a few crisis and recessions here and there, crews will get to fly a lot more if they are undercrewed, and they would end up hiring 6-8,000 instead.....just throwing a number.

What I'm trying to say is that no matter how bad the economy is, those airlines are huge, tons of routes, tons of passengers, and they could stop hiring if they didn't have so so many retirements.

And being politicians as dumb as a human being can be, I wanna think they learn a couple of things everytime economy goes to hell, so next time is a different reason or it doesn't last that much.

[bafanguy]

SextanteUK,

To put some broader context to your point about numbers of US age-65 retirements, I got a bar graph of that data directly from ALPA R & I people. It was based on early 2012 numbers of ONLY [at that time...a couple of others added since then] ALPA-represented airlines and spans 2012 through 2056 so it's just a tad out of date. The curve seems to peak about the 2026/2028 time frame after which the annual totals shown begin decreasing but are still substantial for a long time.

These numbers will have morphed somewhat for a variety of reasons but still represent a Big Picture snapshot as of a few years ago.

For the 15 year period inclusive of 2016 through 2031, the total age-outs are: 26,886

As you said, events can alter the situation considerably but I'd guess the people on the bottom of seniority lists here can take at least a small measure of comfort in that data. Of course, first ya gotta GET the job...a whole other thread ! Try to hit it on the upswing. :-)

(I don't know how to post that chart or I would.)

[SextanteUK]

Dang! 26,886 is a HUGE number, so even better haha. Let's say they end up hiring 50% of that number, I should get lucky

Once I finish my training in a couple of months I'll have 350h, so I still need to get to 1500h, get my degree online while a fly for 'X' years in a regional, and then who knows. I'm just trying to be positive and visualize a prosperous future

I saw a couple of RJ carriers with flow to AA, where they specify no degree is required anymore!, wich makes me think they foresee a real need in the future no matter what.

We'll see!!

[bafanguy]

SextanteUK,

Someone who actually knows what he's talking about may come along to give career guidance but I get the IMPRESSION that the hours between a fresh CPL and 1500 may be some of the hardest to get.

And, if you're going to get a degree online, you might want to get on with that as soon as you finish flight training since life can get in the way and slow down progress.

Airlines may not advertise a degree as a requirement but that doesn't mean they don't prefer one as a way to differentiate between otherwise similar applicants. It's their party so they decide who gets invited even if their POV is of debatable logic.

A degree is roundly debated but the opinion of the airline HR policy makers is the only one that matters.

[SextanteUK]

I'm from Spain, and over there is almost impossible to get to 1500h unless you pay for it. Other than than that you can only apply to Ryanair and company, and if you get lucky, then you gotta pay your type rating, some 25k+.

Not saying is super easy here, but there are a lot of operators out there hiring with CPL and 250h. Salary is crap, but it is what it is, and this sacrifice will open doors in the future. Think Alaska operators, Caravan Operatos, pipeline patrol, and of course the CFI route. So it should take around 18 months to get to 1500h, once I'm hired somewhere. I'll cross my fingers

And yes, as soon as is doable, money/time wise, I'll start with my degree, and hopefully they'll give some credits for my ratings.

[misd-agin]

You can add about 10,000 AA pilot retirements to the ALPA numbers.

[SextanteUK]

even better!!, If I don't making in the next 5 years then I should just go back to construction haha.

[boofhead]

I am advertising all over the US for pilots and the resumes sent to me are not anything as good as they were even three years ago. The pickings for me are slim to non-existent. So far of the dozens I have received this year I cannot accept any of them because they simply don't have the experience I need, whereas a few years back I was able to choose from many highly qualified pilots and resumes were sent to me dozens a week with many great people simply walking in the door. After a major advertising blitz I just took on 5 pilots to replace those lost to the majors and freight companies and only one is willing to give me full time.

The salaries in my area have gone up amazingly to attract pilots but even then there are few or no takers.

I know the majors will never have trouble but for every pilot at AA thousands are required at the lower level to support that demand. The pyramid of pilots has the airline captains at the apex and without a solid base that pyramid will topple.

I can assure you that the dozens of articles written by the Part 135 and Part 121 Regionals every week reporting the shortage are true.

The most logical reason for the shortage is the 1500 hour requirement, which had nothing to do with safety and everything to do with ego.

[White Sausage]

No, the most logical reason for this shortage is the crap salary you and the others are offering! Why do you think there isn't a shortage anywhere else in the world?

[bafanguy]

boofhead,

"So far of the dozens I have received this year I cannot accept any of them because they simply don't have the experience I need..."

When you say "experience", do you mean total time, time in type or in a specific category of flying ?

IIRC, you're in Alaska ? If so, do you require/accept only Alaska experience ? No one applied you could hire and bring along to be what you need/require.

In terms of total flight time, it's gained one hour at a time and can't be rushed all that much. And, there's only one way to get Alaska experience. :-)

I certainly believe it when you say there's a supply pressure at the moment as people are undoubtedly moving from one job to another they like better or one that'll contribute to getting them two jumps up the ladder longer term.

While it's little consolation at the moment, the available data shows the vacancy vacuum at the legacy level peaking circa 2028.

I don't know anything at all about Part 135 ops. I've only known people who did it before or after a Part 121 career...and very few of those.

[RTMorley]

I too don't know where you get your numbers from! I am what you refer to as a "Legacy" and have been unemployed for 7 years! Because of my "Age", no one will look at me or any other pilot over 50! Please understand this; THERE IS NO PILOT SHORTAGE!!!! THERE NEVER HAS BEEN A PILOT SHORTAGE!! It's all B.S.!!! Could there BE a pilot shortage? Sure. Especially the way Corporations treat their pilots and the cost of getting all the necessary Ratings. The truth is, most "Companies" these days want "Qualified" pilots who look like they just stepped of the pages of GQ Magazine in addition to allow themselves to become "indentured slaves". Also factor in the fact that "They" are currently developing "Pilotless Aircraft!! That's right! For years now "They" have been developing AND testing "Self-Flying Aircraft!! Imagine what THAT will do to "Pilot Demand"!!!

[boofhead]

I just told you the salaries have gone up so that is not the reason. I can see that at the top there is no shortage but what I am saying is that there are way fewer people joining aviation at the bottom and without those numbers the pyramid will fall. The 1500/ATP rule had nothing to do with safety. Frankly I don't know why it was enacted because it can only hurt. Most airlines would not promote to command until a few thousand hours at least and a SIC in the right seat would at least be getting training in the areas of operation. Now the potential SIC has to get the hours outside, perhaps flight instructing, gaining no useful experience in the business, before being even able to apply for the first job.

Now the numbers of beginners is way low and the effect on the top after a few more years will be just as bad as it is now at the lower levels of the industry, such as Part 135.

[boofhead]

Yes I need Alaska experience but more importantly I need 4000 hours flight time and a large amount of PIC time in multi engine airplanes. It is a tough world out there. I am competing with the majors and freight carriers and they offer jet time and a career, as well as way more money than I can ever hope to pay. In the olden times those carriers would have their choice of youngsters with 500 hours or so, but now they, like me, will take whatever is on offer.

I used to get more than enough to have a decent choice but no longer. One of my best pilot pools is those who have retired at 65, can you believe it?