4 year degree
peekay4,
Using recent data from Expressjet, your contention about movement being more attractive to the more junior people is supported:
Year 2014:
seniority < 5 years...42% of those leaving
5 to 10 years...40%
2015 so far:
data almost identical
Of course, the future of the regional airline model in the USA can only be the subject of speculation with some predicting the demise of many of them. We'll see...
And there's a wide variation in how well people progress when comparing one regional to another. But, my source says that, at least at Expressjet, there's a senior cadre that isn't going anywhere. It took my source over two years to just get off reserve as an FO. Other regionals will be different perhaps.
I would venture the opinion that at this moment in history, there's very little risk in going to one of the big US legacies due to monstrous age-65 attrition. This, at a minimum, might function as furlough protection when the inevitable economic downturn happens. As for the risk of a legacy just disappearing like TWA, EAL, BNF, etc., well, what can one say about THAT ?
Using recent data from Expressjet, your contention about movement being more attractive to the more junior people is supported:
Year 2014:
seniority < 5 years...42% of those leaving
5 to 10 years...40%
2015 so far:
data almost identical
Of course, the future of the regional airline model in the USA can only be the subject of speculation with some predicting the demise of many of them. We'll see...
And there's a wide variation in how well people progress when comparing one regional to another. But, my source says that, at least at Expressjet, there's a senior cadre that isn't going anywhere. It took my source over two years to just get off reserve as an FO. Other regionals will be different perhaps.
I would venture the opinion that at this moment in history, there's very little risk in going to one of the big US legacies due to monstrous age-65 attrition. This, at a minimum, might function as furlough protection when the inevitable economic downturn happens. As for the risk of a legacy just disappearing like TWA, EAL, BNF, etc., well, what can one say about THAT ?
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Average age of new hires at AA is 42-45 years old.
Average civilian flight time of DL new hires was 7656 hrs/4126 PIC since Jan 2014.
Older and experienced guys are getting hired. But at some point age becomes a negative. Anyone think a 90 yr old will be better than a 35 yr old? An 80 yrs old? 70? 60?
Volunteering? It doesn't have to be Mother Theresa stuff. Coaching, union work, flight department assignments, community, school, peer mentoring, it's a broad category.
Average civilian flight time of DL new hires was 7656 hrs/4126 PIC since Jan 2014.
Older and experienced guys are getting hired. But at some point age becomes a negative. Anyone think a 90 yr old will be better than a 35 yr old? An 80 yrs old? 70? 60?
Volunteering? It doesn't have to be Mother Theresa stuff. Coaching, union work, flight department assignments, community, school, peer mentoring, it's a broad category.
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We know the mandatory retirement age will likely go up again "soon", probably to 68 like in Japan and then further on to 70.
So if your life goals include the majors, the incentive is to do whatever it takes to move now (finish that 4 year degree, etc) -- or risk getting stuck in the regionals for a many extra years, which is what happened the last time the retirement age was raised.
On the flip side, if you take a pay cut to go to the majors, there is a risk of a long wait before upgrade there if the retirement age keeps getting bumped up all the way to 70. Those who are now nearing retirement will have huge financial incentives to stay on a few more years, with the QOL of having the most seniority and earning money at the top of the pay scale, while everyone else waits below.
Lastly, there are many very Sr. Captains who are comfortable at the regionals but who may not have the talent or determination or education to successfully make the transition to the majors, even if they want to. Some may not have spotless PRIA records, etc. So they're not going to risk losing everything just to go to the majors, and will just stick it out at the regionals.
So if your life goals include the majors, the incentive is to do whatever it takes to move now (finish that 4 year degree, etc) -- or risk getting stuck in the regionals for a many extra years, which is what happened the last time the retirement age was raised.
On the flip side, if you take a pay cut to go to the majors, there is a risk of a long wait before upgrade there if the retirement age keeps getting bumped up all the way to 70. Those who are now nearing retirement will have huge financial incentives to stay on a few more years, with the QOL of having the most seniority and earning money at the top of the pay scale, while everyone else waits below.
Lastly, there are many very Sr. Captains who are comfortable at the regionals but who may not have the talent or determination or education to successfully make the transition to the majors, even if they want to. Some may not have spotless PRIA records, etc. So they're not going to risk losing everything just to go to the majors, and will just stick it out at the regionals.
I'm one of those senior Captains you speak of. You've missed the mark with your reasonings why I and others stay. Quality of life exists at the regional level as well when you're somewhat senior. To go to a major, im taking a heck of a pay cut, I'm likely commuting and working a crappy schedule over the weekends and on holidays. The pay at my airline for a 20 year guy is well north of 100K/yr, even more if a LCA. If you can't live on 120+ a year, you likely can't live on 200K either.
I'll take a comfortable salary and the ability to watch my kids grow up as well. The drive to achieve a major airline captain salary has a cost that many don't realize till the kids are out of the house.
I'll take a comfortable salary and the ability to watch my kids grow up as well. The drive to achieve a major airline captain salary has a cost that many don't realize till the kids are out of the house.
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West Coast you probably missed our previous discussion on the bottom of page 1 of this thread, stating exactly that (pay cut, etc.) However, we know there are other factors affecting other Captains as well.
