Irish electon; impact on air defense
Thread Starter
Irish electon; impact on air defense
Should Sinn Fein form the next Irish government, where does this leave the transfer of security and intelligence information from the UK and the position of the RAF who provide air defence to Ireland?
Would Sinn Fein ask for the French or Germans to provide air defence capabilities?
Would Sinn Fein ask for the French or Germans to provide air defence capabilities?
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Often in Jersey, but mainly in the past.
Age: 79
Posts: 7,812
Received 137 Likes
on
64 Posts
Accepting the hypothesis of SF actually forming a Government, why would they wish to unravel arrangements that suit the Republic?
Good summary of the issues here https://www.ucd.ie/spire/t4media/Ben...2019_final.pdf
"This level of capacity also precludes Ireland from exercising any meaningful air defence. To date this has been limited to the operation of a small ground-based air defence system to protect high profile visits of foreign heads of state and dignitaries at national events and state visits. Uniquely in the European Union, Ireland lacks the type of radar system necessary to track and identify aircraft in its airspace that are unwilling or unable to use their transponders. Thus, in lieu of any meaningful national air defence capacity Ireland has instead relied upon the strategic interests of NATO forces to defend their airspace. Ad hoc understandings with the UK’s Royal Air Force were placed on a formal footing subsequent to the signature in January 2015 of a Memorandum of Understanding between the British and Irish governments on defence cooperation.
The published MOU itself speaks only obliquely about the need to strengthen situational awareness across the land, sea and air domains. It is however understood also to have led to a formal agreement in 2016 to permit RAF identification, pursuit and interdiction of aircraft posing a potential security threat. This was reported as having been exercised in 2015 and 2017 when the RAF scrambled to intercept Russian bombers ‘probing’ air defences which were tracked into Irish controlled airspace. 3 The MOU was signed with the UK as an EU member state and several of its provisions become redundant as a result of the UK’s withdrawal. Commitments to addressing shared challenges through the EU’s CSDP, joint participation in EU battlegroups, building and sharing capacities developed through the European Defence Agency, and a framework agreement among the five EU Atlantic states on situational awareness all fall by the wayside. Of course, the MOU also provides for extensive bilateral cooperation - including the aforementioned agreement on air defence, but there is a broader issue at play as regards Brexit. When the MOU was first mooted, it was described as historic, and an indication of the ‘normalisation of relations between Ireland and the UK.’
The political sensitivities of Irish-British military cooperation are obvious but were ameliorated by the context of the peace process, shared membership of the European Union and their associated joint engagement in military cooperation through the CSDP. The question now arises that in the context of bilateral tensions over Brexit and the UK’s exclusion from CSDP, whether the MOU’s bilateral provisions will prove to be politically sustainable in the medium to longer term. According to the Minister of State at the Department of Defence this is indeed the case. Speaking in the Dáil in February 2019, the Minister insisted that a three-year action plan on the implementation of the MOU had been drawn up and would be reviewed and renewed in the latter half of 2019. More problematically, he argued that the MOU was “unconnected to Brexit” and that it would continue to provide the framework for bilateral defence co-operation.
"This level of capacity also precludes Ireland from exercising any meaningful air defence. To date this has been limited to the operation of a small ground-based air defence system to protect high profile visits of foreign heads of state and dignitaries at national events and state visits. Uniquely in the European Union, Ireland lacks the type of radar system necessary to track and identify aircraft in its airspace that are unwilling or unable to use their transponders. Thus, in lieu of any meaningful national air defence capacity Ireland has instead relied upon the strategic interests of NATO forces to defend their airspace. Ad hoc understandings with the UK’s Royal Air Force were placed on a formal footing subsequent to the signature in January 2015 of a Memorandum of Understanding between the British and Irish governments on defence cooperation.
The published MOU itself speaks only obliquely about the need to strengthen situational awareness across the land, sea and air domains. It is however understood also to have led to a formal agreement in 2016 to permit RAF identification, pursuit and interdiction of aircraft posing a potential security threat. This was reported as having been exercised in 2015 and 2017 when the RAF scrambled to intercept Russian bombers ‘probing’ air defences which were tracked into Irish controlled airspace. 3 The MOU was signed with the UK as an EU member state and several of its provisions become redundant as a result of the UK’s withdrawal. Commitments to addressing shared challenges through the EU’s CSDP, joint participation in EU battlegroups, building and sharing capacities developed through the European Defence Agency, and a framework agreement among the five EU Atlantic states on situational awareness all fall by the wayside. Of course, the MOU also provides for extensive bilateral cooperation - including the aforementioned agreement on air defence, but there is a broader issue at play as regards Brexit. When the MOU was first mooted, it was described as historic, and an indication of the ‘normalisation of relations between Ireland and the UK.’
The political sensitivities of Irish-British military cooperation are obvious but were ameliorated by the context of the peace process, shared membership of the European Union and their associated joint engagement in military cooperation through the CSDP. The question now arises that in the context of bilateral tensions over Brexit and the UK’s exclusion from CSDP, whether the MOU’s bilateral provisions will prove to be politically sustainable in the medium to longer term. According to the Minister of State at the Department of Defence this is indeed the case. Speaking in the Dáil in February 2019, the Minister insisted that a three-year action plan on the implementation of the MOU had been drawn up and would be reviewed and renewed in the latter half of 2019. More problematically, he argued that the MOU was “unconnected to Brexit” and that it would continue to provide the framework for bilateral defence co-operation.
Something of a red herring IMHO.
If SF forms a government it will most likely make up about 40% of it with Fianna Fáil and the greens the most likely partners (both centrists with government experience). I suspect a condition of the others joining may well be that SF do not get Justice or Defence departments.
SF have made multi billion spending and tax cutting proposals that are impossible to deliver on. They are unlikely to want to spend a big chunk of money on air defence. Meanwhile the electorate will be slowly realising they have voted in a populist/Marxist party.
No one wants to upset the reestablished NI Executive and it's arrangements.
The MOU is advantageous to the UK in some respects as the most likely air defence threat comes from Putin.
Don't expect too much to change.
If SF forms a government it will most likely make up about 40% of it with Fianna Fáil and the greens the most likely partners (both centrists with government experience). I suspect a condition of the others joining may well be that SF do not get Justice or Defence departments.
SF have made multi billion spending and tax cutting proposals that are impossible to deliver on. They are unlikely to want to spend a big chunk of money on air defence. Meanwhile the electorate will be slowly realising they have voted in a populist/Marxist party.
No one wants to upset the reestablished NI Executive and it's arrangements.
The MOU is advantageous to the UK in some respects as the most likely air defence threat comes from Putin.
Don't expect too much to change.
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Warwick
Posts: 197
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
As our interceptor Typhoons are based on the east coast escorting Putin’s intruders orpotential terrorist threats over the western approaches ROI must be limited duration without extra tanks.
"or potential terrorist threats over the western approaches..."
Do you think that is at all likely? and what form would it take??
Do you think that is at all likely? and what form would it take??
"Meanwhile the electorate will be slowly realising they have voted in a populist/Marxist party"
from what I've read they seem to know that already - that's why they voted for them..............
from what I've read they seem to know that already - that's why they voted for them..............
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Sometimes north, sometimes south
Posts: 1,809
Likes: 0
Received 4 Likes
on
1 Post
The more difficult question is how an unravelling of the AD bit of the MoU would leave Ireland in the event of a terrorist takeover of an airliner in/heading for Irish airspace.
NS
Does anyone seriously think the Russians present an air defence threat to the UK still. They seem to be able to exercise all the control they want over us by 'cyber ' means and their real enemy isnt the West it is China .
Is there any reason why our unusual arrangement with RoI would not continue , if Sinn Fein are still Marxist which I doubt they arent going to be supporting todays russia or having any impact outside their own territory and has been pointed out they certainly cannot afford an airforce or an air defence system. Politics have changed a lot in the last few years and once seemingly close relationships built on ideology have just melted away
Is there any reason why our unusual arrangement with RoI would not continue , if Sinn Fein are still Marxist which I doubt they arent going to be supporting todays russia or having any impact outside their own territory and has been pointed out they certainly cannot afford an airforce or an air defence system. Politics have changed a lot in the last few years and once seemingly close relationships built on ideology have just melted away
These are all aircraft movements that have been tracked by NATO for many hours, from as soon as they take off (maybe even before that!) from their Kola Peninsula bases. There are no surprises. QRA is launched, with tanker support, so that it can meet the "intruders" at a pre-planned point.
Should Sinn Fein form the next Irish government, where does this leave the transfer of security and intelligence information from the UK and the position of the RAF who provide air defence to Ireland?
Would Sinn Fein ask for the French or Germans to provide air defence capabilities?
Would Sinn Fein ask for the French or Germans to provide air defence capabilities?
The Irish Times, 12 June 2015
Sinn Féin MEPs have abstained on a European Parliament resolution condemning human rights abuses in Russia.
The Irish Times, 21 April 2002
Pressure is mounting on Sinn Fein after a report the IRA had been secretly buying weapons while publicly decommissioning. [...] In a British newspaper report, IRA chiefs are said to have bought a consignment of high powered new Russian special forces rifles in Moscow late last year.
The Irish Independent, 28 April 2019
Sinn Féin MEP Lynn Boylan has accused the EU of being "overly confrontational" towards Russia and has defended voting against plans to block a Russian gas line.
The Irish Independent, 23 October 2016
Sinn Féin has come under fire for refusing to sign a Dáil motion condemning Russia's involvement in the Syrian conflict which has cost thousands of innocent civilians' lives.
I'm sure that if the UK intelligence services belives sharing information would be a security risk, then it won't be shared.
JAS
One could flip the situation and say that the Irish should’ve been worried about the UK government recently having been in a power sharing situation with the DUP and their links to, ermm, certain unsavoury groups.....
Even before the Good Friday agreement I was cleared direct across Ireland in a VC10K to chase a Bear which a Shacklebomber had spotted at the edge of cover and which the F-4s were tasked to intercept, identify and report upon.
It worked - F-4s got the doors and topped up to escort the Sovs northwards.
Míle buíochas, Éire!
It worked - F-4s got the doors and topped up to escort the Sovs northwards.
Míle buíochas, Éire!
