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Old 18th Apr 2017, 05:23   #1 (permalink)
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North Korea!

With it being arguably the biggest threat faced by the West and potentially most significant use of air power, surprised to see so little speculation about N Korea. The US VP spoke of "options". What might they be?...this is a rumour forum after all.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 05:37   #2 (permalink)
 
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Christ - with that headline for a minute there Shot I thought the balloon had gone up!
As regards the topic - those who say don't know and...
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 06:13   #3 (permalink)
 
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Perhaps this film best shows what a nuclear war might be like. What do others think?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZhjpHYjZpc
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 06:48   #4 (permalink)
 
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Living here it is a daily reality, and the TV is full of scenarios.


One 'expert' says that up to now DPRK has rattled the nuclear threat for economic reasons. Now their aim seems to be recognition by the US of DPRK's de facto full-fledged membership of the nuclear club.


If the US gives into their demand, however, then S Korea and Japan will have to be allowed to follow suit, something that the US would allegedly never want/allow.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 07:51   #5 (permalink)
 
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Obviously, quite an uneasy situation with this fanatic country, and no military solution seems to be possible. The choice would be between bad and very bad scenarios.

IMHO, they will never be a deadly threat for US (even if they succeed with ICBM) because deploying enough Aegis systems is quite possible considering relatively small geographical area of NK. But what to do with SK and US bases and troops there since they may be within the radius of artillery/MLRS ? Even now they can reach Seoul...I have doubts that so many Patriots and THAADs would be possible to deploy to counter their massive use. Their ships and subs count, too. Though they will likely be eliminated after the first shot, who knows what might be targets of this shot?

IMHO, the only solution might be transformation of the society by their Southern brothers, so that German reunification scenario would be possible sometime in the future. But SK did not succeed much on that front, so far...
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 07:57   #6 (permalink)
 
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They have spent a great deal of money on their military systems. Where does the money come from ?
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 08:07   #7 (permalink)
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They may not be able to reach the US, van, but even a "successfully" intercepted missile would cause havoc in Seoul.

"Those that say don't know...etc". I disagree, that's never been how deterrence works. Throughout the CW, both sides worked hard to publicise and demonstrate readiness. The difficulty is, what threat works against a country that's a total basket-case?
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 08:51   #8 (permalink)
 
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ShotOne,

"Threat faced by the West?"

Surely this is only a threat to South Korea and of mild concern to Japan. The US are also involved by way of their forces stationed in country.
The "West" is not even involved let alone threatened, and to become involved would be to participate in aggressive regime change ala our recent history in the Middle East.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 10:22   #9 (permalink)
 
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Back on thread - cognisant that I wouldn't have a clue what I am talking about:
Three immediate dangers.
The artillery - not of which all can reach Seoul as Stratfor pointed out - just the rocket assisted shells and the big Stalin organ type rocket launchers. Have to take those out. How many are there? Thousands? Well dug in? Target them first?
The solid fuel rockets. Mobile TELS - next in the firing line - might not be able to respond as quickly as a gun, but not far behind. Do you know where they are and how do you find them?
Then the infantry and armour. Massed onslaught as they head south. How to deal with them?
I actually wonder if the nuclear threat is a huge red herring.
The conventional threat is so much more immediate and dangerous - having walked through those Seoul shopping mall bomb shelters in 2000 as a journo.
It seems to me that the US and SK would need a massive pre-emptive strike in order to contain the NK conventional threat - huge aerial force projection combined with a massive TLAM launch.
They'd need to take out the Norks within an hour or so to limit shelling of Seoul etc.
NK would see it coming a mile off.
A very difficult problem for any battle planner to solve.
Would be interested in the perspectives of anyone who may have more insight than I do.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 11:13   #10 (permalink)
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Decapitation strike against Kim and the military leadership?

In such a hierarchical and dictatorial structure nobody at the lower levels would dare to show any initiative and would await orders from the top.

US Navy SEALs, F-35s to decapitate North Korea's Kim regime - Business Insider

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decapitation_strike
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 11:26   #11 (permalink)
 
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Trump was on TV this Morning saying China is working in concert with the USA, South Korea, and Japan in finding a Diplomatic solution to the problem.

He said he has hope that will succeed but if it does not all other Options are on the Table.

Sounds like a reasoned response and plan so far.

If the wee fat bastard with a horrible haircut is in power a Year from now I will be surprised!

If the Chinese decide there should be Regime Change in North Korea....he is history!
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 11:33   #12 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergerie1 View Post
Perhaps this film best shows what a nuclear war might be like. What do others think?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZhjpHYjZpc
A bit closer to home : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NxkEDpl-40
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 12:07   #13 (permalink)
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"The Bedsitting Room" - trailer and full movie.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_...ing_Room_(play)



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Old 18th Apr 2017, 12:34   #14 (permalink)
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As this is an aviation forum I had a look at some airfields in NK. They appear to have a number of very basic forward highway and austere runways in the forward area. Further back, and of course imagery from 10-15 years back, the permanent airfields have a significant base loading factor.

There are lines of aircraft close packed on what look like taxy ways and access roads. They do not appear to have either hardened shelters, revetments or spaced parking areas.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 14:12   #15 (permalink)
 
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If the NK Air Force is anything like my experience with the Chinese Air Force of the nineties then that airfield layout is familiar.

A line of aircraft consists of those that are flown continuously until they break. They then go on to the next ones and when they break they used bits off the first to fix them. When the bits run out they move on to the next batch. The result is that when you move along the line the first are total wrecks which may contribute a spare. They then go on to Xmas trees and eventually you will find aircraft that are being flown. After that there are new ones and as there is no hangerage they will have full cockpit covers, wing cuffs etc.

Obsolete aircraft are towed, or dragged, to another part of the airfield and will stay there for some considerable time because the airfield's fuel supplies are rationed to the number of aircraft on strength. Not withstanding this flying training usually stops around the third week in the month because they have run out of training fuel even when the pilots are averaging only eighty hours a year.

The Chinese Air Force has moved on astronomically from those days because they can now afford it. Vastly improved pay scales, equipment, training and simulators. Whether North Korea can similarly replace quantity with quality is probably doubtful.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 14:23   #16 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
If the wee fat bastard with a horrible haircut is in power a Year from now I will be surprised!
Sas - can you just clarify which one you mean?
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 14:49   #17 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tartare View Post
......
The artillery - not of which all can reach Seoul as Stratfor pointed out - just the rocket assisted shells and the big Stalin organ type rocket launchers. Have to take those out. How many are there? Thousands? Well dug in? Target them first?
.....

Difficult to map "big Stalin organ type rocket launchers" on real things, but they (the "shorty's" army) do have many self-propelled "Koksans" having range of c.a. 40 km using conventional shells and up to 60 km with new ones (Seoul is closer than 40 km to the border).

https://topwar.ru/uploads/posts/2014...-1-xl.jpeg.jpg

https://topwar.ru/uploads/posts/2014...771862a_xl.jpg

These Koksans were used during the Iran-Iraq war long ago and US captured some in Iraq, but how would it help "neutralise" them?

Many batteries of this artillery are lined along the demilitarised zone just waiting for the command. No doubt many are well-hidden. An uneasy task...

Last edited by A_Van; 18th Apr 2017 at 16:13.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 15:24   #18 (permalink)
 
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Crab, you is a very naughty boy!
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 15:29   #19 (permalink)
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US military considers shooting down North Korea missile tests, sources say
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 17:14   #20 (permalink)
 
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It's an option, but yet again one has to wonder what the NoK reaction would be.

Sadly, as with some other States, normal reactions and behavious are unpredictable. But a compliant attitude to gross breaches of UN resolutions is NOT the answer.
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