North Korea!
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Of all the unstable nations that we tolerate with nuclear weapons, NK is the one we don't want with them. They are amongst the most criminally-inclined, reckless, and vicious people on the planet.
They would cheerfully let off a nuclear weapon on any one of a dozen of their hated "adversaries", even if it meant serious destruction of their own country.
The faster the NK regime is dismantled, and their nuclear-manufacturing ability removed, the sooner a lot of people in the world will breathe a sigh of relief.
If that means a pre-emptive strike is required, then that's what it should be. We have had 64 years of pussy-footing around and tip-toeing around the NK problem - and the NK problem has only gotten worse with each passing decade, and with each passing regime leader.
There will come a point soon, without action on the part of the West, when it will be too late, and a gloating, nuclear-armed NK will be lashing out with more aggressive, unchecked, bully actions, with the knowledge that they can counter any retaliation with a nuclear strike.
There is little doubt that if NK gain the ability to manufacture multiple numbers of nuclear weapons without any action to stop them, on the part of the West or the UN, they will use them at the first opportunity, where they think they will gain power or major concessions.
They would cheerfully let off a nuclear weapon on any one of a dozen of their hated "adversaries", even if it meant serious destruction of their own country.
The faster the NK regime is dismantled, and their nuclear-manufacturing ability removed, the sooner a lot of people in the world will breathe a sigh of relief.
If that means a pre-emptive strike is required, then that's what it should be. We have had 64 years of pussy-footing around and tip-toeing around the NK problem - and the NK problem has only gotten worse with each passing decade, and with each passing regime leader.
There will come a point soon, without action on the part of the West, when it will be too late, and a gloating, nuclear-armed NK will be lashing out with more aggressive, unchecked, bully actions, with the knowledge that they can counter any retaliation with a nuclear strike.
There is little doubt that if NK gain the ability to manufacture multiple numbers of nuclear weapons without any action to stop them, on the part of the West or the UN, they will use them at the first opportunity, where they think they will gain power or major concessions.
Last edited by onetrack; 29th Apr 2017 at 13:10.
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on a more positive note, it appears the latest ICBM (?) missile test has failed, with an explosion shortly after launch.
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
MPN, I wonder what the next rounds or reports on the staff will contain, lead?
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China has declared recently NK did not follow the wishes of it's government by launching another one. That sounds like some tricky situation for the north as they might be losing their last big sponsor.
If in fact russia should be supplying stuff now we have a possible major sino-russian conflict developing over there.
If in fact russia should be supplying stuff now we have a possible major sino-russian conflict developing over there.
Russia has recently been taking advantage by selling gasoline to NK to make up for the Chinese shortage. She has also set up a new regular route for NK's banned (by Japan) 'passenger' liner between Vladivostok and Rason in northeast NK, to start on Victory Day, 9th May. The Sino-Russian seesaw continues...
North Korea’s Nuclear Capabilities: A Fresh Look by David Albright - Institute for Science and International Security
North Korea?s Nuclear Capabilities: A Fresh Look | Institute for Science and International Security
http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-...2017_Final.pdf
North Korea?s Nuclear Capabilities: A Fresh Look | Institute for Science and International Security
http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-...2017_Final.pdf
If it's going to work, the largest share of influence will be from China, with some effort from Russia, South Korea, and the US. Depending on how those nations do, and don't, get along and share a common goal of defusing the long standing issues will inform how well it works on a given Sunday.
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Brat
I was thinking just the same thing the other day. If one accidentally landed on China or Russia (especially a fully loaded one) then I wonder what would happen next.............
Arc
I was thinking just the same thing the other day. If one accidentally landed on China or Russia (especially a fully loaded one) then I wonder what would happen next.............
Arc
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Good point. In this case, I think, the whole NK problem will be solved because patience has limits.
Again, IMHO the main threat factor now is that Seoul and probably some US installations in SK can be massively reached by NK conventional artillery in case of trouble. Missiles can be intercepted by THAAD and AeGIS, but thousands of shells not.
Don't know exactly about China, but as for Russia, its territory close to the (short) border with NK is not considerably populated and such a threat is much less.
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Indeed. However, there are numerous counter-battery radars in Korea. Which means that should a DPRK artillery battery start shooting, they'd get off one or maybe two rounds before being themselves taken out by counter battery fire.
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
Ken, in theory, but it would become a classic attrition exchange.
The winner would be the one with the most guns.
Could make an interesting computer game. A fires 100 guns. B counter fires 75 and eliminates 100. A retaliated with 100 and eliminates 75 and so on. The skill being to use and lose less guns.
The winner would be the one with the most guns.
Could make an interesting computer game. A fires 100 guns. B counter fires 75 and eliminates 100. A retaliated with 100 and eliminates 75 and so on. The skill being to use and lose less guns.
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PN,
Lanchester's laws of combat are only partially applicable here. E.g., the N (north) side will definitely fire not against the S-side "guns" but rather at "squares" (including cities, industrial areas and military bases) because their accuracy is very poor.
But in the part where Lanchester works, it says that the number matters.
So, as KenV correctly wrote, the question is how many rounds the N-side could make? If they have thousands of "guns" and some are manoeuvrable (and some can quickly hide underground), I am not sure that all of them would be supressed in two rounds...
Lanchester's laws of combat are only partially applicable here. E.g., the N (north) side will definitely fire not against the S-side "guns" but rather at "squares" (including cities, industrial areas and military bases) because their accuracy is very poor.
But in the part where Lanchester works, it says that the number matters.
So, as KenV correctly wrote, the question is how many rounds the N-side could make? If they have thousands of "guns" and some are manoeuvrable (and some can quickly hide underground), I am not sure that all of them would be supressed in two rounds...
I still cannot figure out why the Chinese are letting a deranged, nutcase neighbor diddle with atomic weapons and such.
Wouldn't it be much safer to tell him "Better stop now or else...." instead of running for scramble after he got them?
Wouldn't it be much safer to tell him "Better stop now or else...." instead of running for scramble after he got them?
