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Old 18th Apr 2017, 17:44   #21 (permalink)
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It could be argued that engagement of anything entering a published missile engagement zone without prior permission is a legitimate target. The USN has done this before.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 18:26   #22 (permalink)
 
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Perhaps NK are doing a Saddam and letting everyone think that they have this massive capability. Wonky missiles on display at the weekend gives thought that it's all show and no content.

Not that conventional weapons won't make a mess though.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 18:51   #23 (permalink)
 
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I wonder what the end goal is here?
Does the South really want unification with the massive financial millstone that the north would be?
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 19:09   #24 (permalink)
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That is the $63,999 question which will be occupying analysts in theatre. 25 hrs a day and probably longer in foggy bottom.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 19:36   #25 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Decapitation strike against Kim and the military leadership?

In such a hierarchical and dictatorial structure nobody at the lower levels would dare to show any initiative and would await orders from the top.

US Navy SEALs, F-35s to decapitate North Korea's Kim regime - Business Insider

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decapitation_strike
But the NK are quite fanatical and many are quite brainwashed, and I wonder if the fanaticism can cancel out the dictatorial structure and everyone goes apesh*t if they here the cake man has been killed.

More simply, maybe the NK issue an order that, if there is a loss of comms for more than 30 mins (e.g.) just fire everything? - so long as it goes South, the job is done?

He isn't going to go down without making a spectacle of it if at all possible.

Question is...have 'they' been able to cultivate an alternative movement within the forces which could assume command given the codeword. It would seem to me that this sort of thing is what you need to save many many lives.

In terms of invasion, I remember reading about the tunnels that the North has fun digging in to the South. Could be worrying if you don't think you have them all mapped.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 19:51   #26 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
As this is an aviation forum I had a look at some airfields in NK. They appear to have a number of very basic forward highway and austere runways in the forward area. Further back, and of course imagery from 10-15 years back, the permanent airfields have a significant base loading factor.

There are lines of aircraft close packed on what look like taxy ways and access roads. They do not appear to have either hardened shelters, revetments or spaced parking areas.
The vast majority of North Korean airfields have underground facilities. At least two have underground runways.

Do a search for

IMINT & Analysis: Underground Airfields: The DPRK

https://www.wired.com/2010/07/online...und-airfields/

http://freekorea.us/2013/03/08/north....Flghh4wJ.dpbs
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 20:00   #27 (permalink)
 
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Now that the US Government have belatedly found the Carl Vincent group playfully exercising in the Indian Ocean, I wonder if the White House will lose interest in NK:

Quote:
White House officials said on Tuesday [18 Apr 17] they were relying on guidance from the Defense Department. Officials there described a glitch-ridden sequence of events, from a premature announcement of the deployment by the military’s Pacific Command to an erroneous explanation by Defense Secretary Jim Mattis — all of which perpetuated the false narrative that an American armada was racing toward the waters off North Korea.

By the time the White House was asked about the Carl Vinson on April 11, its imminent arrival had been emblazoned on front pages across East Asia, fanning fears that Mr. Trump was considering a pre-emptive military strike on North Korea. It was portrayed as further evidence of the president’s muscular style two days after he ordered a missile strike on Syria while he and President Xi Jinping of China were finishing dessert during a meeting in Florida.

The saga of the wayward carrier might never have come to light, had the Navy not posted a photograph on Monday of the Carl Vinson sailing through the Sunda Strait, which separates the Indonesian islands of Java and Sumatra. The picture was taken on Saturday, four days after the White House press secretary, Sean Spicer, described its mission in the Sea of Japan.

Credit - NYT
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 20:00   #28 (permalink)
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TEEJ, that would certainly seem the case for the forward ones. On runways, I advocated underground runways 40-50 years ago
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 20:19   #29 (permalink)
 
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The Navy would have to have crazy good intel and a ton of luck to launch a successful operation to take out Cheeseboy.

They're not going to be dropping into a small compound guarded by some chickens, a dog, and a few guys with AKs.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 20:38   #30 (permalink)
 
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Underground runways come out of holes in the ground. One l@ser guided bomb can block a hole
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 22:41   #31 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 4Greens
They have spent a great deal of money on their military systems. Where does the money come from ?
You asked the question - the following news article outlines fairly clearly where NK has acquired much of its "legal" wealth.

The article does not, however, indulge in any analysis of just how much money the Govt of NK is making from illegal and criminal activities - such as drug-dealing, sex-trafficking, internet fraud, sales of their weaponry technology to other "rogue states", and a range of criminal activities that would make the Mafia and Camorra proud. NK is believed to be behind the US$80M internet bank fraud carried out on Bangladesh recently.

Bangladesh bank fraud

For the last reasons alone, a regime collapse, and style of government change in NK would be a very worthy aim. However, the last thing I think many would want to see, is regime collapse with only a power vacuum left.
This would more than likely only result in a similar dictatorial regime returning to NK, within a relatively short time.

News.com.au - How has NK managed to build a massive military stockpile?

Last edited by onetrack; 18th Apr 2017 at 22:58. Reason: spelling ..
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 22:46   #32 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by TheWestCoast View Post
The Navy would have to have crazy good intel and a ton of luck to launch a successful operation to take out Cheeseboy.

They're not going to be dropping into a small compound guarded by some chickens, a dog, and a few guys with AKs.
My thoughts exactly.
It'd be an absolute suicide mission.
And to see why - have a look at this.

Last edited by tartare; 18th Apr 2017 at 23:10.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 23:13   #33 (permalink)
 
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Some discussion on Reddit with respect to North Korea if you are interested.

https://www.reddit.com/r/NorthKoreaNews/
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Old 19th Apr 2017, 00:30   #34 (permalink)
 
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My early training in North Korea came from Biggles, and powerful stuff it was.


Interesting links, tartare, & on the top bunk, above. Thanks.

Last edited by jolihokistix; 19th Apr 2017 at 00:45.
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Old 19th Apr 2017, 04:06   #35 (permalink)
 
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Interesting comparative stats here.
I'm trying to imagine what a mobilisation for a strike on North Korea might look like.
Presumably you'd have to strike using assets already in theatre, as any attempt to build up a Coalition type force a la GW1 or GW2 would immediately send the signal and invite a pre-emptive attack from the North?
Would one US CSG be enough to bolster the South and US forces already stationed in South Korea?
He's got 1.1m under arms, a lot of tanks and a pretty rag-tag airforce but quite a few missiles and 21,000 artillery pieces...!
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Old 19th Apr 2017, 07:34   #36 (permalink)
 
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and Quantity has a Quality all of its own. Once you have used all your 'ready use' modern equipment it comes down to numbers of people and basic equipment.

If the North strikes quickly, the US will not have time to mobilise its response IMHO. And probably numbers would swing it. Fanatics are not worried about casualties or long term aims and games, just the here and now..............

For sure, we won't be sending any Carriers...............
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Old 19th Apr 2017, 08:25   #37 (permalink)
 
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21,000 artillery pieces at 250 rounds a day each, makes, erm... 5 million, 250 thousand rounds a day.


Need quite a large hangar to store a week's worth, i.e. 37 million shells?
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Old 19th Apr 2017, 08:31   #38 (permalink)
 
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For sure, we won't be sending any Carriers...............
However it seems like the cousins will be, and then some.
The Ronnie Reagan and the Nimitz are on their way - and the Carl Vinnie if it eventually gets there.
Isn't that around three hundred jets - and around six nuclear subs following?
Joli - there was some interesting commentary in some blogs today around the number of misfires from said artillery - they might struggle to maintain that rate of fire by the sounds of things...

Last edited by tartare; 19th Apr 2017 at 08:45.
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Old 19th Apr 2017, 08:45   #39 (permalink)
 
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Now you see it, ...


From the wind-swept deck of a massive aircraft carrier, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence on Wednesday warned North Korea not to test the resolve of


https://japantoday.com/category/poli...t-order=oldest
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Old 19th Apr 2017, 09:12   #40 (permalink)
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The Navy would have to have crazy good intel and a ton of luck to launch a successful operation to take out Cheeseboy. They're not going to be dropping into a small compound guarded by some chickens, a dog, and a few guys with AKs.g
I think it would more likely be Korean SF doing int gathering and lazing for stealth aircraft dropping PGMs. B-2s would be able to both bunker busters and 1000lb bombs for softer targets.
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