UK & Argentine Falklands Rapprochement

[MAINJAFAD]

but without any medium/long range AA missile defence it must be open to a take-out strike

Total waste of time putting such weapons at MPA, too much terrain masking available on the main threat axis. Rapier FSC is actually a very good bit of kit and CAAM, the replacement for Rapier will be much more capable.

[typerated]

Originally Posted by Marcantilan

For the record, Argentine claim has some grounds. Last time Iīve check the majority of the international community supports Argentine position...even US backed the claim before 1982.

I donīt want to convince anyone here, just I think is appropiate to mention it.

Regards to all,

Of course Argentina has grounds. I think the UK should take full advantage of the current Argentine governments stance and put maximum effort into getting a diplomatic solution.
Everyone stands to benefit if an agreement can be reached. Despite what the locals might think a good deal for Argentina is surely the best outcome in the long term for the islanders!

[Basil]

Originally Posted by typerated

Of course Argentina has grounds. I think the UK should take full advantage of the current Argentine governments stance and put maximum effort into getting a diplomatic solution.
Everyone stands to benefit if an agreement can be reached. Despite what the locals might think a good deal for Argentina is surely the best outcome in the long term for the islanders!

I don't think so. Such a policy opens the floodgates to any beleaguered dictator or government to do a bit of grandstanding.
In the words of a man, much greater than I: "Never give in!"

[typerated]

I was looking forward not looking back.

So we can never find an agreement with them because of their actions in 82?

[Chinny Crewman]

The wishes of the inhabitants of Diego Garcia counted for nothing when British interests conflicted with them. I'm sure when the treasury decides it's too expensive and the Govt thinks it can get away with it the issue of sovereignty will be solved.
As for the military aspect if the Argentines were able to successfully take the islands I doubt the UK has the political determination or the military ability to retake them.

[MACH2NUMBER]

Several here are not giving serious consideration to the democratic wishes of the Falkland Islanders. Their Island was burgled and their houses trashed and ruined, civilians were killed and wounded. They have voted overwhelmingly to reject any change or sharing of sovereignty with Argentina. Its a bit like Brexit and the Remoaners. Lets just leave it at that.
Considerations of Argentine military options are inappropriate from those who know the Islands.

[Wander00]

M2N - I am with you on that - wishes of the Islanders must be the primary consideration

[Heathrow Harry]

Welllll.............. up to a point Lord Copper.........

previous UK Governments have decided against following the wishes of the inhabitants of various territories/colonies in quite a few cases - I don't think the Kelpers have any illusions about the fact that the British might ditch them when it suits us

[Heathrow Harry]

"Total waste of time putting such weapons at MPA, too much terrain masking available on the main threat axis."

Indeed - but actually I was thinking of mounting them on West Falklands where they'd have a clear view to the west & north.....................

[MACH2NUMBER]

HH, I seem to remember the blessed TB saying something like "I'll never give up in peace what Maggie Thatcher won in war". Well I suppose we have had 3 PMs since then and memories quickly fade.
The examples you state of countries being ditched do not include those over we fought a full blown regional war - at least not recently.

[Heathrow Harry]

I agree that the FI should remain British but God knows what will happen if & when memories fade or we hit a full scale crisis

If they can get the oil on stream they'll be able to make an increased "voluntary contribution" to keep the armed forces there (or hire others to protect them).

If I was Argentinean I'd play a very long game - restore flights, lift sanctions and the nit-picking and just treat the inhabitants reasonably (maybe add in freebees such as university education, subsidised travel etc). Realistically aim to replace the UK as the Governing Power in say 50 years but offer exactly the same degree of self-government

[MACH2NUMBER]

HH Quite, and thats what they did before, lulled us into a false sense of security and pounced when their government was vulnerable, to restore public support. The Falkland Islanders are very right to fear charm offences, by both sides, they have seen it all before.

[glad rag]

Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry

"Total waste of time putting such weapons at MPA, too much terrain masking available on the main threat axis."

Indeed - but actually I was thinking of mounting them on West Falklands where they'd have a clear view to the west & north.....................

Blessed are they who serve West!!

[Frostchamber]

Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry

I agree that the FI should remain British but God knows what will happen if & when memories fade or we hit a full scale crisis

If they can get the oil on stream they'll be able to make an increased "voluntary contribution" to keep the armed forces there (or hire others to protect them).

If I was Argentinean I'd play a very long game - restore flights, lift sanctions and the nit-picking and just treat the inhabitants reasonably (maybe add in freebees such as university education, subsidised travel etc). Realistically aim to replace the UK as the Governing Power in say 50 years but offer exactly the same degree of self-government

Yes, that is exactly what they should do if they want to maximise their chance of success. Politics doesn't always lend itself to such a long game but in the face of successive decades of charm and warmth there must be a good chance that the UK's position - not least in terms of defensive posture - would shift over time in the face of other priorities and cost pressures. I'd hope not, but...

[Heathrow Harry]

The Argies have to make being part of Argentina more attractive than being part of the UK

Big ask but given enough time not impossible...................

[Fonsini]

Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry

The Argies have to make being part of Argentina more attractive than being part of the UK

Big ask but given enough time not impossible...................

I'm guessing you have never actually asked a Falklander that question. I have never met a resident who would do anything but resist Argentinian rule with their last breath. Similarly I have never met an Argentinian who was willing to let the UK keep the islands using anything less than force.

Make no mistake, there is no "winning over" - if we hand the islands over to Argentina it will be in flagrant denial of the islanders wishes. I'm not saying the UK hasn't done that before - but we need to be clear on the reality of the islander's perspective.

[Captivep]

Fonsini - I couldn't agree more.

When I was in a bar in Stanley (six years ago), one of the locals asked me where I was going next. As it happened, the next destination of our ship was Buenos Aires.

Without missing a beat, the islander said "give the b........ a kick from me."

One only has to look at the way the war memorial in Stanley is looked after (and the individual graves of British servicemen around the islands) to realise that it will be a very very long time before the Argentinians have the faintest chance of persuading the islanders to change their minds.

[Heathrow Harry]

"I'm guessing you have never actually asked a Falklander that question."

Wrong - I was actually talking to a couple of them just before Christmas - the older guy, some of whose family were banged up at Goose Green in the shed, is the one who told me that they expected the Brits to ditch them in the late 70's and that they might well do it again...........

The current feeling is that they may be able to do business with the current government in BA and the removal of the irritating restrictions on shipping will be very welcome as would be the renewal of flights to BA. However it will be a generation before anyone will trust the Argies again.........................

[ORAC]

Happy to talk to Argentina on the claim to the Falklands based on their presence there in 1811.

Right after they start substantive talks with the ethnic locals of Patagonia on handing it back to them after their invasion and massacre of the locals in the 1870s.

What's good for the goose and all that.....

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conquest_of_the_Desert

[glad rag]

OT but having just watched the feral reaction to the top gear team from "the locals" in the Patagonia special, I think anyone who could believed, as I did earlier, that there may be a way forwards is wrong, as was I.
Argentina is deeply troubled.