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Trump impact on Defence posture

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Trump impact on Defence posture

Old 11th Nov 2016, 10:17
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"Perhaps the time for the much-derided EU Army (and by extension, EU Air Force and Navy) has now finally come...."


Then you have to gather all those crowds of folks from the Eastern and Southern Europe and put them in a regular English primary school, first of all. Speaking poor and broken language over a beer or in a classroom without stress and non-real-time requirements is OK, but when it comes to "real business"....
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Old 11th Nov 2016, 10:26
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Putin who considers him a useful tool
You could leave out the word 'useful'.
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Old 11th Nov 2016, 10:40
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Perhaps the time for the much-derided EU Army (and by extension, EU Air Force and Navy) has now finally come....
Yes, the time has certainly come....to scrap the whole idea.
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Old 11th Nov 2016, 14:15
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Asking, or perhaps insisting others pay their fair share is hardly calling for NATO disbandment. Nor is it an unreasonable ask by Trump. But from a negotiating perspective there has to be a consequence or else it's meaningless words.
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Old 12th Nov 2016, 07:48
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Asking, or perhaps insisting others pay their fair share is hardly calling for NATO disbandment. Nor is it an unreasonable ask by Trump. But from a negotiating perspective there has to be a consequence or else it's meaningless words.
Agreed: however, if that means Article 5 of the Washington Treaty now carries a caveat (though you could argue it is already there with Article 3), drawing the resolve for acting in collective defence further into doubt will only stoke the fear and mistrust of the 'eastern allies' and make the whole thing a dead letter anyway.
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Old 12th Nov 2016, 09:38
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Originally Posted by A_Van
"Perhaps the time for the much-derided EU Army (and by extension, EU Air Force and Navy) has now finally come...."


Then you have to gather all those crowds of folks from the Eastern and Southern Europe and put them in a regular English primary school, first of all. Speaking poor and broken language over a beer or in a classroom without stress and non-real-time requirements is OK, but when it comes to "real business"....
A regular English primary school - you jest of course.
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Old 12th Nov 2016, 15:16
  #27 (permalink)  
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I've been gobbling down what a few pundits have had to say/prophecy about the future of Trump and Putin. The common take seems to be that relations may start well but in time a conflict of interest is sure to influence events at which point matters could turn very sour. Had Hilary Clinton being headed for the White House, relations between Putin and herself would have been difficult but would have fallen into the standard current frame of Russian/Western relations and the Status Quo such as it is would likely have endured. However, the much noted volatility of Trump amidst the present world climate might be rather hair raising!

Personally, what would be concerning, is say he decides soon next year to deploy ground troops to Syria, a Humvee goes astray and about half to a dozen of young Americans, male and female, end up surrendering to a large Force of Daiesh. Supposing they end up receiving a typical Daiesh welcome for their enemies, with extra perverse Brutality and their bodies are later found impaled on meat hooks. I can see his and other world Security advisers and experts having their work cut out for themselves trying to convince him that a Tactical Nuclear Strike on the largest concentration of Daiesh that intelligence can pin point is not a good idea?

FB
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Old 12th Nov 2016, 17:14
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Originally Posted by Finningley Boy
I've been gobbling down what a few pundits have had to say/prophecy about the future of Trump and Putin. The common take seems to be that relations may start well but in time a conflict of interest is sure to influence events at which point matters could turn very sour. Had Hilary Clinton being headed for the White House, relations between Putin and herself would have been difficult but would have fallen into the standard current frame of Russian/Western relations and the Status Quo such as it is would likely have endured. However, the much noted volatility of Trump amidst the present world climate might be rather hair raising!

Personally, what would be concerning, is say he decides soon next year to deploy ground troops to Syria, a Humvee goes astray and about half to a dozen of young Americans, male and female, end up surrendering to a large Force of Daiesh. Supposing they end up receiving a typical Daiesh welcome for their enemies, with extra perverse Brutality and their bodies are later found impaled on meat hooks. I can see his and other world Security advisers and experts having their work cut out for themselves trying to convince him that a Tactical Nuclear Strike on the largest concentration of Daiesh that intelligence can pin point is not a good idea?

FB
if Trump&Putin make a deal to use tactical nukes against ISIS who'd oppose them? China and EU? Well I'm not sure that would work.
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Old 12th Nov 2016, 18:51
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FB,


I tend to think on similar lines with what you wrote in para 1 of your post 28.
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Old 12th Nov 2016, 22:54
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Well this is about to get awkward

http://http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/12/trump-putin-alliance-sparks-diplomatic-crisis/

Britain is facing a diplomatic crisis with the US over Donald Trump’s plans to forge an alliance with Vladimir Putin and bolster the Syrian regime.

In a significant foreign policy split, officials admitted that Britain will have some “very difficult” conversations with the President-elect in coming months over his approach to Russia.
Looks like Trump might not go back on this pledge after all. Putting aside the fact that it's not quite as simple as smashing Da'esh - imagine breaking a piece of glass on a shag pile carpet; you know you haven't actually got rid of the glass, just put splinters everywhere and you can't see them til you stand on them - are we seeing UK and other western politicians having their bluff called by a businessman who might just think that years of going round in circles without any substantive progress amounts to spin over substance - or a poor return on investment?

Whatever your views on his personal qualities, I suspect we will find him to be pragmatic as far as his own interests are concerned and results oriented. Whether those interests and results fit in with the Liberal London elite's view of the world is another matter. But they aren't the ones holding the big stick.

Last edited by Melchett01; 12th Nov 2016 at 23:06.
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Old 13th Nov 2016, 05:47
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Just more of the same tired old rhetoric from the leftist media whenever a Republican is elected US President. Remember how the insane warmonger Ronald Reagan was going to start World War III and destroy humanity with his aggressive foreign policy approach towards the Soviet Union? Yet before he left office, the Soviet Union had collapsed on its own as a result of his foreign policies. Or remember the predictions of global catastrophe resulting from the cowboy mentality of President G.W. Bush causing massive nuclear wars?

Of course the leftist media conveniently ignore that the current Nobel Peace Prize winning Democrat US President has engaged the US in a greater number of foreign military conflicts (eight) than any President since WWII.
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Old 13th Nov 2016, 07:48
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FB,


I tend to think on similar lines with what you wrote in para 1 of your post 28.
Exactly Sir,

He sems likely to take a simplistic approach to some very sensitive matters and I don't envy his 'guys' trying to pull back on his leash when snarls and barks at someone.

FB
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Old 13th Nov 2016, 16:02
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Before we tear into Trump's approach, is there any realistic prospect of Assad leaving anytime soon? Surely insisting on this point only guarantees ghastliness without end. His plan might even be fractionally less awful than what's currently happening.
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Old 13th Nov 2016, 20:53
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Trump has an idiosyncratic way of interpreting his own rhetoric and is already beginning to backtrack on some of his commitments, I believe that, at least in the early days of his presidency, it will be a case of seeing what he does rather than listening to closely too what he says. Only then will we get some idea of the direction that he is taking.

Last edited by bspatz; 14th Nov 2016 at 16:27.
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Old 14th Nov 2016, 06:01
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the big problem for us Brits over Assad is that if he turns up at LHR he has a decent case for admittance as his Mrs is a UK citizen.......
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Old 14th Nov 2016, 12:57
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Sure we can admit him, and give him a free stay in Pentonville until his room is ready in the Hague!
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Old 14th Nov 2016, 13:35
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Originally Posted by AreOut
if Trump&Putin make a deal to use tactical nukes against ISIS who'd oppose them?
Neither of them is that stupid.
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Old 15th Nov 2016, 22:23
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John McCain sent a warning shot Tuesday at Donald Trump over Vladimir Putin.

A day after Putin pledged better U.S.-Russian relations in a phone call with President-elect Trump, McCain said in a statement: "We should place as much faith in such statements as any other made by a former KGB agent who has plunged his country into tyranny, murdered his political opponents, invaded his neighbors, threatened America’s allies, and attempted to undermine America’s elections."


Raises my opinion of Sen McCain. But the problem is, there may be too much in common between Putin and Trump. They praise and respect each other. I don't want a leader like them. Have to wait and see, like it or not.
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Old 15th Nov 2016, 23:35
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Putin pledged better U.S.-Russian relations
I'd prefer that over pledging to make things worse. Attempting better relations with the Sov...err the Russians doesn't equate to letting them off the hook. So much hot air coming from DC from people trying to get their sound byte in.
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Old 16th Nov 2016, 00:53
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If I am Xi Jinping or Vladimir Vladimirovich, at the moment I am sensing... opportunity.
How long before the first challenge to Trump's authority to test him?
Another sneaky little Baltic annexation?
A little South China sea armed confrontation - maybe a shoot down of a Japanese military jet?
I reckon middle of next year.
They'll want to find out if this new President is a paper tiger.
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