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Old 24th Nov 2015, 16:28
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Radar track released by the Turkish MOD (linked from CBS News):



And a link to the same area on Google Maps:

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/...d9dbd42a625f2a

Note the scale on the Google version. Looks to me as if the Russian jet would have been in Turkish airspace for no more than 15 seconds or so. The little isthmus of Turkey is so narrow that the moment the Russian jet enters it, you could quite reasonably say that it's exiting it! Who am I to judge, but it looks like a bit of an overreaction.
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Old 24th Nov 2015, 16:30
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Its as if these animals are suffering from a form of OCD.

They commit gross obscenities whilst competing with each other to chant 'allahu akhbar'.Like some sort of perverse dawn chorus or nervous twitch.
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Old 24th Nov 2015, 16:42
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I see that reports are now emerging that US "authorities" are suggesting that the Russian jet was only in Turkish airspace for around 5 seconds. Gives the lie to Turkish claims of 10 warnings over 5 minutes. As someone else has said, will we ever know? I just can't help but think this is more about political deviousnous that military or security concerns. Oh what a tangled web they weave. I hope though that those who "Allah ackbarred" over the body of the pilot today are not the same "moderate opposition" our PM is intent on supporting from the air.

Smudge
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Old 24th Nov 2015, 17:22
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The Turks themselves are only claiming the jet was in their airspace for 17 seconds. How would we feel if a Tornado was downed in identical circumstances?

"Moderate" rebels? People prepared to take up arms in a brutal civil war tend not to be moderate by any usual meaning of the word.
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Old 24th Nov 2015, 17:24
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Claims emerging that a Russian Marine assisting in the SAR effort was also killed by "moderate rebels."
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Old 24th Nov 2015, 17:32
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Is it possible that the lost ac was no2 of a pair? the radar track posted by Easy Street appears to show (to my very untrained eyes) some 'jumps' in the lower right part of what I assume is an orbit and the footage of Russian ac taking off today indicates that they were acting in small packets.

As for the rights and wrongs of the shootdown...
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Old 24th Nov 2015, 17:56
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A nonsense by the Turks, and the "explanation" puzzles me.

Not a wise idea to bit a bear.

Regards,
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Old 24th Nov 2015, 18:01
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I think, given the 'previous', the Russians have overstepped the mark in repeated incursions, and the Turks were justified.


Foolish, but justified.
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Old 24th Nov 2015, 18:10
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Really kitbag? Even assuming the Su24 did briefly enter Turkish airspace, by any measure, deliberately firing a missile to destroy an aircraft in another countries sovereign airspace is surely a much greater violation?
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Old 24th Nov 2015, 18:11
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Perhaps someone should ask Putin where the Ukraine BAK launch unit went?
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Old 24th Nov 2015, 18:13
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Expeditionary air warfare in the early part of the 21st century. Rebellious armed groups, confusing and conflicting aims, oscillating alliances. Yesterday Russia looked like an ally chalking messages of support to Paris, what on earth are they tomorrow?
Aircrew can expect nothing less than death if they get shot down here it seems. No mercy can seem to be expected. Only the degree to which how horribly they die. Those Russian airmen had clearly survived as far as into their chutes. Clear this up for me - the people who killed them are our allies?
Wonder how Russia will react, most especially to Britain in another turn of this serious spiral?
I keep e-mailing my MP asking her to vote against this coming vote for an escalation of war. Hope today sways her against Cameron's stance.
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Old 24th Nov 2015, 18:18
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sadly this is a consequence of of the newly-resurgent Russia (in 'kill everyone' mode) and Turkey (with innumerable side issues in this equation).

IMHO they were both bloody stupid.

coordination/cooperation? hahahahahah
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Old 24th Nov 2015, 18:19
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Originally Posted by ShotOne
Really kitbag? Even assuming the Su24 did briefly enter Turkish airspace, by any measure, deliberately firing a missile to destroy an aircraft in another countries sovereign airspace is surely a much greater violation?
It wasn't just the airspace incursion. It was the repeated warnings, and previous incursions. The Turks, for all that this incident saddens me deeply, are well within their rights to secure their borders and their airspace, and I think that they can make the case that they have given ample warning not just during this event, but during other incursions within the past few months.

Not to mention, they knocked down a Syrian jet within the last few months near their airspace.

I find it interesting that the Turks refer to the jet as of unknown nationality, which means that they could argue that they thought it was Syrian ... but with the F-16 there ... how bout a VID and figure out what nation's marking are on the aircraft?

Hmmm, lots of messiness in this business. To answer one of the questions, I think that the Russians were attacking a group that is supported by Turkey, that isn't ISIS, and is opposed to Assad. As ever, this whole thing's a bloody mess.
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Old 24th Nov 2015, 18:20
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We need a peace summit among the leaders. Now that would be a better idea than, say...more bombing.
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Old 24th Nov 2015, 18:23
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If this is about simple incursions dozens of planes would have been shot down this year alone by now, all over the world.
Think 'so much more behind this than a spontaneous ambush of fighters on bombers.
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Old 24th Nov 2015, 18:24
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Originally Posted by Hangarshuffle
We need a peace summit among the leaders. Now that would be a better idea than, say...more bombing.
If it were that easy, it would have already happened. Crap, I think that Kerry and Lavrov made some noises about that sometime after the charges of chem weapons use was going down.

A couple of years later, and no meeting. Most of the Syrian parties involved are not interested in negotiating. They do not accept the other Syrian parties as acting in good faith. No matter how much good faith the powers present at a table, if the locals do not trust each other what is the point of coming to the table?

How do you get the first few trust building measure put into place so that you can move to where they come to a table? Recent examples of how "easy" this is include Hamas, PLO, Israel, Iraqi Shiites, Iraqi Sunnis, Iraqi Kurds, and for that matter people wearing various colors of shirts in Thailand. See also the Tamil and Sir Lanka.

Negotiation isn't always an available tool, no matter what the tools at the UN assert.
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Old 24th Nov 2015, 18:27
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Erdogan is a dangerous wild card - imagining that NATO will come to his aid. We have enough trouble with our own baby boomer idiot politicians without this crass stupidity by Turkey. Let them find out for themselves how Russia will react and live with the consequences of their stupidity.
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Old 24th Nov 2015, 18:32
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... and Turkey can forget EU Membership, for which many will be grateful!
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Old 24th Nov 2015, 18:34
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they can make the case that they have given ample warning not just during this event, but during other incursions within the past few months.
Well, the Turks informs the violation lasted 17 seconds, but they warned the unknown A/C to change course for 10 minutes...

Besides that, six warnings in 3 1/2 years, mostly about cargo A/C...

Sorry, the Turks has no case here.
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Old 24th Nov 2015, 18:44
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Originally Posted by Marcantilan
Well, the Turks informs the violation lasted 17 seconds, but they warned the unknown A/C to change course for 10 minutes...
Sorry, the Turks has no case here.
Sorry, yes they do have a case. In the words you used, right there. Not to mention, they were not shot down by a SAM, but by an F-16. What are the odds that the F-16 had a Visual ID and that they confirmed it was a WARPLANE before going weapons free? I'll bet that they did just that.

Would I rather then not have shot the plane down?
Yes.
A thousand times yes.
As to Turkey not being in the EU ... well, that was always the better idea.

About 20 years ago, I questioned why NATO should keep existing. NATO chose to begin "out of area" operations as a new strategic direction for the alliance. NATO did a lot of other things.

Turkey was added to NATO for the strategic reason of Russia and Geography, back in the 1950's, and in part to keep Greece and Turkey from going to war. (That latter bit was successful, give or take a bit of trouble in Cyprus).

Hard question for the North Atlantic Alliance: does Turkey still belong in NATO?
Maybe yes, maybe no, and does Turkey want to stay in NATO?
If so, why?

Difficult times ahead.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 24th Nov 2015 at 18:54.
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