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Manning Undershoot Imminent?

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Manning Undershoot Imminent?

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Old 22nd Dec 2014, 13:06
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'Back in the Day', I thought that a 'Spec Rec' normally implied that one should be promoted at the next available opportunity....

Clearly not though - it took me 3 consecutive SRs before I was promoted to Sqn Ldr Spec Aircrew
It's called Assessment Creep and it has nothing to do with anything other than people not knowing how the system works and/or not wanting to be honest when writing assessments. If you and all your peers were Spec Rec, then who is the best and truly worthy of promotion?

I was lucky enough to observe on a Promotion Board, then to serve on one. It changed my view and writing of annual assessments. Creep just saw everyone getting Spec Recs (or 6 in more modern parlance) with no substance in the narratives. Having to explain to my troops that '5's and Highs' would get you promoted took a lot of effort, until they saw it themselves.
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Old 22nd Dec 2014, 18:17
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I once observed the top candidate off a promotion board get there on the merits of "B+ Yes" with an honest and praiseworthy narrative, replete with highly compelling evidence. The smattering of A/A- Excp were often scoffed at under mutterings of over-marking, especially when evidence of Perf/Potential lacked.

The promotion system is very fair and those who observe one are almost unanimously in agreement of that statement.
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Old 22nd Dec 2014, 20:29
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Always A- High for me seemed to work quite nicely!

Anyway, back on thread. Seeing as there are £10k 'Golden Hellos' for joining the RAuxAF and £2k for TG4 ICT techs, are we going to see anything else in the Armed Forces Pay Review Body Report this year in light of these declining figures? Also, there was the FRIs introduced for Petty Officer Techs:

https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...March_2014.DOC

The most telling lines in the above letter are "Why were redundancies made in this cadre when MOD knew the staffing situation was so critical? MOD should make attempts to encourage engineering personnel who were made redundant from all Services to return. There is a national shortage of engineers and the pull-factors to the private sector for Service personnel are strong." And "MOD will need to use more long-term, strategic solutions such as Golden Hellos and possibly Recruitment and Retention Pay to maintain satisfactory staffing levels."

Also, on the AFPRB, seeing as the Govt will be going into 'purdah' by the end of Feb 15 for the May 15 General Election, will we see the report earlier this year?

LJ

Last edited by Lima Juliet; 22nd Dec 2014 at 20:53.
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Old 22nd Dec 2014, 21:14
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To draw a parallel, there are Golden Hellos of up to £25k for STEM teachers (in 2007, it was £6k; in 2011, it was £9k. At this rate, it will be £50k by 2018 and they still won't get anybody)

Actually recruited as of last month......

According to the Department for Education, some 32,543 people started – or expect to start – teacher training courses this term, compared with a target of 34,890. It represented 93 per cent of the total.
But figures showed much larger under-recruitment in some vital disciplines, despite the promise of tax-free scholarships of up to £25,000 to attract the brightest graduates.
In design and technology, only 44 per cent of places were filled, while the recruitment rate stood at 67 per cent for physics,
Government comment
"Despite a tightening labour market, trainee teacher recruitment is holding steady - with low vacancy rates in priority subjects like maths and science.
Vacancy rates are low because it is allowing schools to recruit non-specialists. In difficult areas, students can now do entire GCSE Maths courses without having a single lesson from a Maths specialist. And these are the kids that the military is trying to recruit.


But it's not just recruitment; look at retention.
40% of new teachers leave the profession within 5 years.
Ofsted chief: two-fifths of teachers quitting within five years is 'scandal' | Education | The Guardian

In summary, the Government has its head in the sand about the problems, is announcing ever increasing headline amounts and levels of confidence, and facing ever decreasing rates of recruitment and retention.

The same applies to the military. Golden Hellos do not work when the major faults causing people to leave remain.

You should never try to bail the boat instead of fixing the leak.
'If Nicky Morgan wants more teachers, she needs to look after those she already has' - Telegraph

p.s. In 2004, the Labour Government set a target of 25% of science teachers to be physics specialists, when the rate was 19% and decreasing. After 10 years of continuous effort by all three major parties, the rate is now(Dec 2013).....18%.

Last edited by Fox3WheresMyBanana; 22nd Dec 2014 at 21:28.
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Old 22nd Dec 2014, 21:32
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The promotion system is very fair
How is a subjective narrative fair ?

Now a promotion exam would be fair.
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Old 22nd Dec 2014, 21:37
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GR4techie - I kind of agree until the good person gets "examitis" and we miss out on a good individual. However, good old ISS was a way better test of one's metal than a 4 week course at Shriv crammed into 8!

IMHO, of course!

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Old 22nd Dec 2014, 21:56
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F3WMB

I wouldn't mind being a Physics teacher. I have A level Physics and a MSc in EW, but even with a £25k scholarship it still doesn't pay enough until I become a leader in the school (start on about £22k and after "a few years" between £38k - £58k or even £65k in London). If I compare that to the deal I could get outside with a Defence Company or what I get in the mob (Regular or FTRS), then this is the deal breaker. I could earn over £90k tax free if I wanted to go and work abroad in a similar field.

So, the Govt are in 'dreamland' when they think this will recruit and retain good physics teachers and the good ones they do recruit 'wake up and smell the coffee' to leave as part of the 40% that go.

Sadly, it is all part of the 'you can't possibly earn that as a public servant' brigade and then we wonder why we get the dross running our Councils that, quite simply, I wouldn't employ to clean my household toilet.

iRaven
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Old 22nd Dec 2014, 22:50
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I wouldn't mind being a Physics teacher.
Oh yes you would!
I think you are labouring under the illusion that, as a 'physics teacher', you would be teaching physics.

The pay isn't the main reason people aren't joining or staying. It rates around #5 on the list.

Remember, increasing STEM teacher skills and numbers has been officially the top DfE PR campaign for 10 years, with nothing but a drop in same as the result.

PM me if you want the gory details. Ditto school leader, though CharlieGolf has a the experience there, and will tell you the same thing.

You point about salary, according to what I've read, does apply to TG4 however, as does the point about not doing the job you thought you'd be doing.
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Old 24th Dec 2014, 06:25
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The problems of losing your high-end SQEP operators aren't limited to bums-on-seats; the DH construct now relies more heavily than ever on a huge volume of SQEP input.

QED, less SQEP, and the assurance, air safety and supervision pieces are far harder to bring together.
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Old 24th Dec 2014, 10:51
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ALL branches of the armed forces are suffering from retention issues - the Army has to recruit from the Commonwealth, the Navy is taking US Coast guard assistance and shuffling crews around the miniscule navy we have and the RAF 's problems are explained above

Guess it would be too much to hope that someone would look at the problem overall rather than on a job-by-job basis .....
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Old 24th Dec 2014, 12:13
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How is a subjective narrative fair ?
It is perfectly fair. As long as your ROs can string a coherent sentence together in order to write a cogent and well argued appraisal. And as long as all the ROs across the system play by the same rules.

If however, you are stuck with a RO who's talents lie somewhere other than written comms, or if your RO gives you a 'fair' appraisal when all the ROs are playing the system, then what on paper should be a scrupulously fair system with checks and balances becomes more akin to running the Grand National.

As for FRIs and retention bonuses, I really think they need to reconsider who they go to and broaden the scope. If the powers that be really expect people to believe that all Branches & Trades have a vital role to play in generating operational capability - and now we have contractorised as much as we have, I don't see how they can argue against that for those roles that are left in a 'blue suit' - then they need to start working out how to retain skilled and experienced people across the spectrum, not just for a very few. It's airpower vs aeroplanes and as much as I hate to say it, airpower is increasingly becoming more and more about things other than fast pointy things and bombs on foreheads and that needs to be recognised with retention payments if mission critical gaps are appearing as people walk.

Or, as I suspect will happen, they will just try to bluff it out on the grounds that the economy is still fragile and another recession is likely in the next couple of years which may stem the haemorrhage
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