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Veterans planning to leave Scotland in the event of a yes vote?

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Veterans planning to leave Scotland in the event of a yes vote?

Old 6th Sep 2014, 21:39
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Can you be specific about the risk that you feel exists?

Goodnight.
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Old 6th Sep 2014, 21:45
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The risk is that basically it is a dumb idea to start with -

I live in digs during the week - there were 3 of us ostensibly english guys talking about it in the kitchen the other week - we all have close family ties with scotland - I was born and raised in fife and I would not dream of going back to scotland if they split !

I have yet to find a single working jock that thinks splitting is a good idea - in fact they are unanimous that it is a crackpot thing to do - the risks are horrendous PS
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Old 6th Sep 2014, 22:20
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There's been enough disruption of the independence thread in Jet Blast by "people" throwing in meaningless one-liners and pot-stirring, goading posts. It will NOT happen in the Mil Forum!

Perthsaint will not be back in here for 30 days so that he can concentrate on Jet Blast!!!!
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Old 7th Sep 2014, 01:11
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perthsaint

A few questions for you...

Would we all agree that the United Kingdom is a modern country that is based on democracy and governed by a Government voted in by the whole of the UK and also holds such things as fairness and democracy close to the heart... Yes?

So why are the 'Yes' group trying to break up OUR country the United Kingdom?

And more importantly WHY THE ****** DON'T I and every other citizen of this fine and upstanding Country the UNITED KINGDOM who are not currently sat in Scotland GET A ****** VOTE AND SAY IN BUSTING UP OUR COUNTRY!!!!

What right does a MINORITY (which, at the end of the day the 'Yes' campain is when you take into account all UK citizens) think they have to break up the country, hardly democratic is it?

Out of interest, in the event of a 'yes' vote. One that will no doubt lead to the break up of our country, the UK and considering the majority of the voters in the UK will have had NO SAY IN IT WHAT SO EVER what's the chances of taking it to the European Court of Human Rights as I for one will most certainly feel that my human rights will have been proper rolled over.

Mark my words the UK is going down the pan and the way it's going, give it ten years it's going to resemble the FRY, ie Bosnia revisted only instead of being over there it will be over here!


Okay rant over... for now, apologies for all the shouting etc. Nurse is here with my meds now...
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Old 7th Sep 2014, 01:54
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I believe the rest of the UK should pay half of the pensions of retired service personnel who retired before Scotland became independent, for those who live in Scotland. Scottish men have died for the UK's interests, so it's only right.

Although I doubt Scotland actually will become independent....
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Old 7th Sep 2014, 02:41
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So what is the current situation regarding foreign veterans? I presume that F&C and British citizens living abroad have no trouble receiving their pensions, so why would it be different for Scots?
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Old 7th Sep 2014, 04:34
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Always a Sapper,

Regarding your questions, Mate, you need to post them on Jet Blast if you want an answer. Perthsaint can't answer here - see Wholigan's post.



Wholigan,

A wise move, I think.
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Old 7th Sep 2014, 07:06
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One of the complications might be is that at the moment we are all 'British' but if the vote goes to the separatists and the Union is split up then presumably the people in Scotland (ie permanent residents etc) will have to choose between being 'Scottish' or being 'British' in the new not so Great Britain !

I doubt that the British Government will have a problem paying pensions to ex servicemen in scotland but I doubt Salmond would want them to have that 'power'.

LR - proud to be called a 'Porridge W*g'

As an aside - this vote is the most divisive/potentially catastrophic vote I can remember since we voted to join the 'Common Market' way back in 1974 .
I have been talking to some extremely worried folk north of the border - anybody with a reasonable IQ can see the huge potential risks.
Also on the other side of the 'coin' - as a taxpayer - this has already cost us a fortune - it will cost another fortune to 'organise' the break up and then yet another fortune to bail them out when it all goes 'Ti ts Up'
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Old 7th Sep 2014, 07:06
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Since the original question pertains exactly to me - and having seen this morning's poll - I'll answer the question as asked, and without any yes/no spraff.

I'm a veteran (27 years in) so I get a pension, which is pretty profoundly important to me, thus any decision I make will depend on:

a. Tax issues.
b. Who is going to pay my pension and with what.

I'm English, but I could not give a flying goat about nationality/identity stuff like that, providing I get to live in a democratically free & just country.

All that pension and tax stuff will be sorted between Sept 2014 and March 2016 (the nominal date of independence). In true, time-honoured TOFO fashion, I will be keeping up to date with every titbit and morsel of information as it unfolds, using all available means, with the sole purpose of making an informed choice well in advance of any deadlines.

Since I already own property north and south of the border, I'll end up living wherever I ****ing well choose. Who knows...I might end up a tax free expat of no fixed abode.
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Old 7th Sep 2014, 07:17
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Why on earth are 16 year old kids being allowed to vote in this ridiculous referendum, given that the normal minimum voting age is 18?
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Old 7th Sep 2014, 07:26
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Why should the UK government pay the pensions of another countries veterans? Yes, a veteran who served the the UK armed forces defended the whole of the UK, but that also included Scotland. So the liabilities for paying pensions earned up to the point of independence are for all the peoples of England, Scotland, Wales and N Ireland to shoulder, not just those who decide to stay in the rUK. Given the SNP's attitude towards their liabilities if they don't get everything they want, then best of luck. Either pension responsibilities are split individually between an iScot and rUK depending on initial residence at independence, or iScot needs to contribute it's share of the pot to the current arrangements for ALL veterans of the UK. Given that this applies to all public sector pensions (local government ones may be simpler), I think there are some big unanswered questions and I too would be a little concerned when the most basic statements from the SNP about finances (Currency Union, currency, LOLR, deficit etc) are just not believable. It's a sad affair, as the choice of independence is one for the Scots to make but the way the SNP are going about the whole process is so damaging.
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Old 7th Sep 2014, 07:31
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I suspect "the reason 16 year-olds are getting the vote" is exactly the same as how "Bliar" got voted in in 1997.
The more minorities that are courted by "Fishy" Salmon the only chance he has of getting a successful Yes vote.
It all has a rather fishy smell to it.
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Old 7th Sep 2014, 07:48
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Beagle,

because the SNP took the view that impressionable, gullable, full of piss and wind 16/17yo's would be more likely to vote 'yes' than 'no'. the pollsters tell us that actually thats not true, or wasn't the last time i looked, and that are as broadly split as any other group with a slight majority as 'no'.

there was some guff about extending the vote to those who would be most effected by the result, but not only does no one believe it, the logic of that argument extends to giving the vote to four year olds, and oddly enough the SNP didn't push for that...

i'm still betting on a 'yes' with a tiny majority - firstly 'yes' people tend to be more passionate about their cause and are therefore more likely to go out and vote on the day than 'no' voters, and secondly because the 4 years of polling has said 'no' will win, leading, imv, to a certain complacency on the part of 'no' voters about the size of the 'no' vote - a proportion of 'no' voters will probably take the veiw that the referendum will be defeated without their vote. if enough people think that...

thirdly theres the 'don't knows' - the polls put the DK's at around 8-12% of the electorate who plan to vote. what they decide, and if they'll vote, will decide this - and i take the view that a majority of those who eventually make a decision and who then go out and vote will vote 'yes'.

i'm a 'no' by the way...
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Old 7th Sep 2014, 08:01
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I heard just now, on Smooooth Radio that more Scots now want independence than there are those who want to remain part of the UK. Notwithstanding that, yesterday, I mentioned the political, financial or regulatory pressures on pensions. The reality is, whichever government holds power, the situation concerning state or unfunded pensions is pretty much the same and no amount of lobbying or legal action is going to change that.

Although, even as late as last week, the detail about the new state pension is still emerging, we can be relatively certain that most of the electorate is going to have a new, generous flat-rate state pension which will pay out £144-a-week - if you have paid 35 years of National Insurance Contributions (NIC). We can thank the Liberal Democrats for that, you either think it's a good thing or you don't. However, today’s 20 and 30-somethings will have to wait until they're 70 to receive it. But, when we talk about the state pension not being around or whenever we talk about party 'x' or party 'a' jeapordising it and rendering it ‘extinct’, we are referring to depleting the ‘National Insurance Fund’.

We all probably know that NIC are paid and then passed on to today’s pensioners as state pension and any surplus goes into the NI fund; effectively, we pay for the pensions of our parents and so too, will our pensions be paid for by our kids (huh). It isn't a fund as such, it's just one big debit ledger which juggles expenses and future commitments. But although the fund is hypothetical, the Government Actuarial Department (GAD) continues to calculate any surplus within it. The problem is, the difference between the money paid in and the money paid out is shrinking fast.

The fund health is calculated every 5 years, most recently as a couple of months ago, with reference to back testing against the previous 5 years. In 2010 GAD reported that the NI fund had asurplus of £45 billions which it projected would increase to £103 billions in 2013. It got it wrong. The most recent report calculated it to be just £29 billions. When/if it goes, the state pension and any unfunded pensions will have to be found from somewhere, scrambling around the state sofa for loose change, etc. The situation isn't that precarious, just yet. Optimistic predictions by GAD show the NI fund will rise until 2036, and at that point.. it'll then collapse.

https://www.gov.uk/government/upload..._July_2014.pdf

The problem is, GAD has to rely on growth figures provided to it to work with - for instance, it has to assume that earnings growth will be 2.4% a year (ha). But if you refer to the period covered by that report (2008 to 2013) wage growth was minus 1.8% in real terms and since then, just 2.2% per annum. So, when Labour politicians talk about growing the economy, although they may not have the same motivation that I think they should have, the reality is, we NEED growth to grow and generate the NI fund. It's that growth which will fund our pensions, not whether or not the Scots vote for some bloke with a chip on his shoulder.. that's just a red herring, and he's nothing more than a legislator, a politician. I don't know about you, but I tended not to trust those people who wanted to be prefects or head boy either. He won't be able to magic money out of thin air.

I read back through various financial books and in the most prescient ones, authors have been predicting the demise of the state pension since the 80s, but as long as we had a large number of older people with a high probability to vote I doubt that would ever happen. It's all changing now, in 5-10 years, the legions of cruise enjoying, blue collar final salary gas board workers are going to start pegging it in largish numbers and so their input won't matter so much. I really feel for generation Y. My kids will all be impacted and I feel almost guilty to be part of it; complacency and lack of awareness in many people is palpable. Most recently, 10-12 years ago when the word 'debt' was replaced by the far hipper 'credit' and Tony Blair (GQ Philanthropist of the year - really)? dropped rates to practically zero and we all hocked our homes for a new TV - to fund his and Gordon Brown's self indulgent, self referencing insane political and social vote winning odyssey.

We have all read of the campaigning and the uncertainty surrpounding increases to, for instance, AFPS. The above scenario looks grim, but it can change - and quite quickly. We simply have to start increasing taxes (quickly) to pay for it. If we take ONS data at face value, the rate of increase of liabilities is £640 billions per annum and total tax revenue is running at somewhere near £600 billions. So, we make pension payouts more miserly, we continue to increase retirement age, we increase NI contributions, we remove guarantees on SERPs, we introduce yet more tax raids or restrictions on savings and assets, we introduce means testing - lets not forget either, Putin actually confiscated pensions.

Russian Pensions Paid for Putin's Crimea Grab - Bloomberg View

Public sector pension liabilities have jumped from £770 billions to £1.7 trillions in just 5 years, according to figures from Treasury accounts. Peter Tompkins, Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries and chairman of the non-governmental Public Sector Pensions Commission (and therefore, not someone you'd immediately think of as being so irresponsible to be arrested at half past three one morning chained to a lamppost and with his trousers down around his ankles) calculated the liability would rise in very short order to £1.3 trillions. This is one of the reasons why I think the cost cap on AFPS is unsustainable in the short term.

But, seeing that this thread IS about Scotland, if the young taxpayers up there are going to be funding an ageing population's free prescriptions, TV licences and heating allowances and if free tertiary education has to be funded.. all against a backdrop of uncertain oil revenue, then unless you know where the money for the state and occupational pensions are going to come from, then you really are taking a big gamble. If we assume, and it is generally accepted, that the cost of looking after all of our disgracefully and gently ageing Lightning AND Phantom pilots (Courtney excepted, as he slips into cognac induced reverie and won't care too much either way - chapeau, Courtney - apologies, I still think Cauliflower au Gratin is a Parisian railway station) is going to double as a proportion of GDP by 2025, then the impact will be more keenly felt, surely, north of the border where the state commitment is that much greater.

The middle-aged and middle classes are already struggling with uni debt, unaffordable housing and fragmented careers, military partners are finding it increasingly difficult to get work, let alone save for their own retirement which may provide resilience. On the basis of that cash flow modelling, and it could change either way still, and it will, as the flow ebbs and flows, we can kiss goodbye to any meaningful state pension benefit for anyone currently less than 32-35 years old or so. Unless something changes, unless something gives. I suppose, the reality is, if you want independence in Scotland, don't vote for it because some toe rag legislator who wasn't good enough to get a proper job tells you it's a good idea.

Finally, the story about how the Czechs and Slovaks oversaw the separation of the Koruna offers a useful signpost.

Last edited by Al R; 7th Sep 2014 at 08:42. Reason: Putin link
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Old 7th Sep 2014, 08:39
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Al R wrote:

I suppose, the reality is, if you want independence in Scotland, don't vote for it because some toe rag legislator who wasn't good enough to get a proper job tells you it's a good idea.

Al, have a 'Like'.
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Old 7th Sep 2014, 08:52
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I was worrying about how independence might affect the British and Irish Lions team for the tour to New Zealand in 2017.

Then I remembered that the Scottish rugby team is so cr@p that there are very few Scottish Lions!
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Old 7th Sep 2014, 09:55
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What right does a MINORITY (which, at the end of the day the 'Yes' campain is when you take into account all UK citizens) think they have to break up the country, hardly democratic is it?
That's rather an immature view. Don't forget, when the Republic of Ireland was created in 1922, a "minority" of the islands citizens were allowed to stay part of the UK. Also remember, the UK was a union of individual states.... not unlike the USSR was in concept. Do you think those Soviet states had a right to their independence?
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Old 7th Sep 2014, 09:57
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That's rather an immature view. Don't forget, when the Republic of Ireland was created in 1922, a "minority" of the islands citizens were allowed to stay part of the UK. Also remember, the UK was a union of individual states.... not unlike the USSR was in concept. Do you think those Soviet states had a right to their independence?
Why not asks the Latvians, Estonians and Lithuanians and others.....
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Old 7th Sep 2014, 10:03
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Why not asks the Latvians, Estonians and Lithuanians and others.....
I think they are much happier with their current status.
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Old 7th Sep 2014, 10:30
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Late to this but i am a veteran living in Scotland and recently medically retired early from the railway. I have always, despite working in London, spent as much as I could on local services and local shops to support the local community. That community is now split along the Yes/No debate. Friends and family are being divided and there has been vandalism of cars and properties that display favours for both sides. There has also been an increase in casual violence. Salmond, if he gets his way, will inherit a divided nation. Divisions that will take generations to heal, if ever.

This has pissed me off so much I am now in Spain in the process of buying a business and re-locating here with my family. So, the community will lose a net contributor. No big deal if it is just one but many in the area that work over the border are seriously considering moving into England for peace of mind over taxation, pensions, currency etc.

A united independent nation Alec? You are having a bubble.
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