Ukraine Crisis 2014
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The Ukraine's screwed, the only question is how screwed are we prepared to allow it to get? We have the ability to severly limit the damage, the question is will we, I think not. Russia is breaking Ukraine financially, whilst this goes on we keep pouring in aid money, but frankly its like p!ssing into the wind.
As for Russia, its already gone, there is a dictator in charge and the sooner the west realizes that the better, then we can work out the new world order and how to deal with it.
As for Russia, its already gone, there is a dictator in charge and the sooner the west realizes that the better, then we can work out the new world order and how to deal with it.
Militarily, we are not going to get involved. Our last two conflicts were done under the umbrella of Air Supremacy and against insurgents armed with the most basic weapons.
A war in Ukraine against an enemy equipped with tanks, artillery, a credible Air Force and backed up with the threat of nuclear weapons. I think not.
As much as we may bluster and send advisors, the possible number of UK casualties if we involve ourselves in a conflict such as this would be sky high.
Putin and the west have been staring at each other and we blinked first. He knows that the Budapest memorandum is worthless. What will be interesting will be to see how far he takes it. If, as some analysts predict, he starts to look towards the Baltic then the possibility of him testing how strong the NATO alliance is would be very interesting. IMHO he has a free pass with Ukraine. The Baltic may possibly be a step too far.
China must be watching this with glee on the sidelines while they slowly and inexorably strengthen and build their economy and armed forces. Thank god the UK is not involved militarily in the Far East.
A war in Ukraine against an enemy equipped with tanks, artillery, a credible Air Force and backed up with the threat of nuclear weapons. I think not.
As much as we may bluster and send advisors, the possible number of UK casualties if we involve ourselves in a conflict such as this would be sky high.
Putin and the west have been staring at each other and we blinked first. He knows that the Budapest memorandum is worthless. What will be interesting will be to see how far he takes it. If, as some analysts predict, he starts to look towards the Baltic then the possibility of him testing how strong the NATO alliance is would be very interesting. IMHO he has a free pass with Ukraine. The Baltic may possibly be a step too far.
China must be watching this with glee on the sidelines while they slowly and inexorably strengthen and build their economy and armed forces. Thank god the UK is not involved militarily in the Far East.
Last edited by Toadstool; 28th Feb 2015 at 07:59.
He's not an idiot.
He's playing to the public opinion in Russia but he won't do it at all costs.
IMHO he has a free pass with Ukraine. The Baltic may possibly be a step too far.
The latter would probably turn ugly for Russia even without NATO firing a gun.
The West hasn't pulled the economic/financial 'nuclear bomb' on Russia yet. At the moment they are just tickling.
Making all Russian Banks toxic, a full economic Embargo including Oil and Gas and freezing all assets of Russian citizens abroad would throw the Country into an economic catastrophy pretty quickly. However this should be spared for the worst case since no one knows what/who would follow Putin after the resulting total collapse. Looking at some of the candidates makes you shiver...
On top of that NATO couldn't leave any Military challenge to the Baltics unanswered. And NATO knows that. And Putin as well.
So, for the Eastern Ukraine including a land bridge to Crimea plus potentially Mariupol it doesn't look to well. On the other hand they were anyway not very Anti Russian (to avoid saying they were majority Pro Russian).
To force Ukraine (which is internally torn between both sides) into a final decision whether they wanted to join EU or Eurasian Alliance was a stupidity beyond belief and Barroso should be pulled to Court and ideally jailed for this.
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On top of that NATO couldn't leave any Military challenge to the Baltics unanswered. And NATO knows that. And Putin as well.
A famous American (Was it Carnegie or Roosevelt) said 'speak softly and carry a big stick', today the only stick available is a cheap knock off copy of a Harry Potter wand.
Last edited by Kitbag; 28th Feb 2015 at 16:19. Reason: Appeasing F3WMB in a typically modern way
Teddy Roosevelt, not Carnegie.
Teddy advocated long term intelligence-led anticipation of likely flare-ups so the stick wouldn't need to be used; another deep failure by the EU, as Henra said.
Teddy advocated long term intelligence-led anticipation of likely flare-ups so the stick wouldn't need to be used; another deep failure by the EU, as Henra said.
...another deep failure by the EU
Yes, I know that the presence of the US had a massive part to play in this peace, but without the EU; the French, the Germans, the Spanish, the Italians, and dare I say it the British would have found a way to start a war or two between us.
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The drip feeding of sanctions gets you nowhere, people get used to them as they materialise over a long period and they learn to live with them and work around them, it needed to be a full blown slam dunk to coin the American phrase. The problem with that is the west were not willing to suffer the drop in living standards and fall back into recession they could have brought on. It takes a strong willed and firm leader to enforce them, something we all in the west lack with the spineless sycophants we have in power today.
For all its failures, the EU's primary success (and perhaps the only one that matters) is that for nearly 70 years it has preserved the peace in Europe. It's telling that the only continental conflicts in this time have involved non-member countries.
Yes, I know that the presence of the US had a massive part to play in this peace, but without the EU; the French, the Germans, the Spanish, the Italians, and dare I say it the British would have found a way to start a war or two between us.
Yes, I know that the presence of the US had a massive part to play in this peace, but without the EU; the French, the Germans, the Spanish, the Italians, and dare I say it the British would have found a way to start a war or two between us.
Sir, you speak ballcocks. The EU's primary failure is itself, its second rate failed politicians who run it and hopefully will fall apart before too long.
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Agreed........
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"For all its failures, the EU's primary success (and perhaps the only one that matters) is that for nearly 70 years it has preserved the peace in Europe. It's telling that the only continental conflicts in this time have involved non-member countries".
"Yes, I know that the presence of the US had a massive part to play in this peace, but without the EU; the French, the Germans, the Spanish, the Italians, and dare I say it the British would have found a way to start a war or two between us. "
Not so. NATO is responsible for that; NATO means American power and we forget that at our peril.
D.
"Yes, I know that the presence of the US had a massive part to play in this peace, but without the EU; the French, the Germans, the Spanish, the Italians, and dare I say it the British would have found a way to start a war or two between us. "
Not so. NATO is responsible for that; NATO means American power and we forget that at our peril.
D.
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Agree on NATO as a vital player.
Costs and benefits in a complex world.
Perhaps the sanctions will have somewhat of a creeping effect combined with domestic issues in Russia and so on? The Russian economy isn't doing too well at the moment. One question is whether Putin might attempt to deflect public attention from domestic to foreign issues to an even higher degree.
The drip feeding of sanctions gets you nowhere, people get used to them as they materialise over a long period and they learn to live with them and work around them, it needed to be a full blown slam dunk to coin the American phrase. The problem with that is the west were not willing to suffer the drop in living standards and fall back into recession they could have brought on. It takes a strong willed and firm leader to enforce them, something we all in the west lack with the spineless sycophants we have in power today.
Perhaps the sanctions will have somewhat of a creeping effect combined with domestic issues in Russia and so on? The Russian economy isn't doing too well at the moment. One question is whether Putin might attempt to deflect public attention from domestic to foreign issues to an even higher degree.
I think it is probably a bit of both.
Still it was pure folly to put pressure on Ukraine to decide.
Moreover economically the Ukraine was/still is heavily dependent on Russia. They were in many industrial areas the 'subconttracted low wages manufacturing site' for Russia. I doubt there is any viable plan in the drawer how to make Ukraine survive economically without the Russian market. If this breaks away completely you have got a massive problem. And the Ukraine has 45 Million inhabitants. This is 4 times bigger than Greece. So you better got a plan....
Seeing the level of competence on the EU administration level I would be deeply concerned for the Ukrainian people should they blindly follow the EU.
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I doubt it.
He's not an idiot.
He's playing to the public opinion in Russia but he won't do it at all costs.
He's not an idiot.
He's playing to the public opinion in Russia but he won't do it at all costs.
Point 2 - He will do it at all costs - eventually, unless his own people stop him. To men like Putin there is no difference in killing 1 person, 100 people or many millions. History has shown us what his ilk will do and history has shown us what appeasement and disarmament in the face of it achieves.
As for trying it on in the Baltics - why not? There are pro-Russian elements there and with a little creative thinking, there are anti Western groups dotted all over Europe and, indeed the UK. I don't think we will see massed squadrons of Russian tanks headed our way soon (too easy to destroy with something big), but that's not the way anymore, is it?.
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Putin takes control of Georgia’s South Ossetia
Russia was again accused of violating a neighbour’s sovereignty last night after President Putin signed a treaty incorporating the breakaway Georgian republic of South Ossetia, a year after annexing Crimea from Ukraine.
Georgia, the European Union, the United States and Nato denounced the move, which merges the tiny statelet’s military with Russia’s and hands control of its economy to Moscow. Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary general, said that the treaty “violates Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial *integrity and blatantly contradicts the principles of international law”.
South Ossetia and Abkhazia, another disputed region, broke away from Georgia in the early 1990s after the Soviet Union fell apart. Russia gained effective control over both regions in a brief war in 2008. Abkhazia signed its own integration treaty with Moscow last year but yesterday’s document goes further. Thomas De Waal, an expert on the Caucasus region, wrote recently that “South Ossetia is being swallowed up”.
The move came shortly before Mr Putin addressed a crowd estimated at more than 100,000 below the Kremlin walls at a concert to celebrate the “return” of Crimea and amid an intensifying row between Moscow, Russian-backed separatists and Kiev that threatens the fragile ceasefire in east Ukraine.
Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky, leaders of the self-declared People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, said in a joint statement that Kiev had “trampled” on the peace process and sought to destroy their territory “by violence and economic siege”. They said they would defeat Ukrainian forces again if Kiev wanted to fight, and have broken off co-operation until a new law approved by the Ukrainian parliament on Tuesday is repealed.
That legislation grants special status and devolves substantial power to rebel-held parts of the east, but also includes provisions that separatist leaders and Russia say were introduced without consultation after the Minsk agreements were signed last month, including a demand for local elections to be held first under Ukrainian law. Petro Poroshenko, the president of Ukraine, said the new law would “restore Ukraine’s sovereignty on these territories”. Ukrainian MPs also passed a bill declaring the rebel-held areas “temporarily occupied territories”.
Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said that the new laws “grossly violate” the Minsk agreement and told his German counterpart, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, that the bill “could undermine the peace process and lead to a new wave of serious destabilisation”......
Russia was again accused of violating a neighbour’s sovereignty last night after President Putin signed a treaty incorporating the breakaway Georgian republic of South Ossetia, a year after annexing Crimea from Ukraine.
Georgia, the European Union, the United States and Nato denounced the move, which merges the tiny statelet’s military with Russia’s and hands control of its economy to Moscow. Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary general, said that the treaty “violates Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial *integrity and blatantly contradicts the principles of international law”.
South Ossetia and Abkhazia, another disputed region, broke away from Georgia in the early 1990s after the Soviet Union fell apart. Russia gained effective control over both regions in a brief war in 2008. Abkhazia signed its own integration treaty with Moscow last year but yesterday’s document goes further. Thomas De Waal, an expert on the Caucasus region, wrote recently that “South Ossetia is being swallowed up”.
The move came shortly before Mr Putin addressed a crowd estimated at more than 100,000 below the Kremlin walls at a concert to celebrate the “return” of Crimea and amid an intensifying row between Moscow, Russian-backed separatists and Kiev that threatens the fragile ceasefire in east Ukraine.
Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky, leaders of the self-declared People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, said in a joint statement that Kiev had “trampled” on the peace process and sought to destroy their territory “by violence and economic siege”. They said they would defeat Ukrainian forces again if Kiev wanted to fight, and have broken off co-operation until a new law approved by the Ukrainian parliament on Tuesday is repealed.
That legislation grants special status and devolves substantial power to rebel-held parts of the east, but also includes provisions that separatist leaders and Russia say were introduced without consultation after the Minsk agreements were signed last month, including a demand for local elections to be held first under Ukrainian law. Petro Poroshenko, the president of Ukraine, said the new law would “restore Ukraine’s sovereignty on these territories”. Ukrainian MPs also passed a bill declaring the rebel-held areas “temporarily occupied territories”.
Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said that the new laws “grossly violate” the Minsk agreement and told his German counterpart, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, that the bill “could undermine the peace process and lead to a new wave of serious destabilisation”......
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I would like to think that the world is waking up to the Putin Pflusterkrieg. This is why we should not pull our punches when considering sanctions.
On the horizon, besides the Baltic states - we also have the thorny question of the Arctic and who owns all the hydrocarbon resource there. If planting your flag on the sea bed isn't a declaration of ownership then I don't know what is.
And where else is there oil and an eager ally to stir up a quick conflict....? hmmm, 2 small islands, East and West....name escapes me.
Luckily we have Jean-Claude Juncker to protect us all. (he's a Sith Lord in disguise so no worries there).
On the horizon, besides the Baltic states - we also have the thorny question of the Arctic and who owns all the hydrocarbon resource there. If planting your flag on the sea bed isn't a declaration of ownership then I don't know what is.
And where else is there oil and an eager ally to stir up a quick conflict....? hmmm, 2 small islands, East and West....name escapes me.
Luckily we have Jean-Claude Juncker to protect us all. (he's a Sith Lord in disguise so no worries there).
Georgia and the surrounding areas are a political basket-case anyway. I had the pleasure of teaching a student from Georgia for a few years (around Rose Revolution time). She was a fierce patriot, but even she was incensed at the aggressive idiocy of her leaders who pretty much pushed the South Ossetians into the arms of Russia. I'm not blaming Putin for this one.
South Ossetia and Abkhazia, another disputed region, broke away from Georgia in
the early 1990s after the Soviet Union fell apart.
the early 1990s after the Soviet Union fell apart.
Maybe this is the same deal, and as Fox 3 says, the leadership in Georgia have not covered themselves in glory. My son in law has a very good friend living in Georgia now, teaching English. His experiences support what Fox3 says: basket case. Or has he says it with a pretty strong Texan accent:
"Them people are nuts from the get go."