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Old 21st Aug 2012, 10:18   #1 (permalink)
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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

China has picked it's time well, with Afghanistan and Syria bubbling away and the election due in the USA.....

The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

All of East Asia is waiting to see how the U.S. will respond to China's aggression..
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Old 21st Aug 2012, 10:43   #2 (permalink)
 
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U.S. policy with respect to sovereignty issues in Asian-Pacific waters has been that we take no sides, that such matters must be settled peacefully among the parties involved.
Well, that'd be a first...

I guess there's no oil then?
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Old 21st Aug 2012, 10:55   #3 (permalink)
 
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Australian general to help lead US military push into Pacific | World news | guardian.co.uk

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Old 21st Aug 2012, 11:03   #4 (permalink)
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China and Japan: two nations locked in mutual loathing

The historic enmity between the two countries – now resurfacing in a dispute over sovereignty – threatens stability in East Asia

U.S. Looms Large Over China’s Sovereignty Disputes
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Old 21st Aug 2012, 11:41   #5 (permalink)
 
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Possibly loads of oil but whenever anyone tries to take a look-see the other counties all send a gun-boat..........

They really all need to sit around a table and discuss this - without the USA present - they are sovereign states
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Old 21st Aug 2012, 20:44   #6 (permalink)
 
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China refuses to sit down with everyone involved at once... they insist that the only way they will talk is with one nation at a time, and that all resulting treaties must be between themselves and each other nation individually.

Naturally, the other nations insist that the disputes must be solved "all-at-once" so that there are no contradictory treaties, and so that they can stand together against China.

The UN put out a proposal over a decade ago that assigns all but the very center group of islands to specific nations, but no one has yet accepted that, since it didn't completely solve the issue.
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Old 21st Aug 2012, 20:58   #7 (permalink)

 
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" Australian general to help lead US military push into Pacific"


Well we have to help the US, they are a bit heavy handed and
need someone to help them understand the region


On a serious note, probably a flow on from Aussie generals being at the top
of the Ops tree in Iraq which seemed to work well.
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Old 21st Aug 2012, 22:39   #8 (permalink)
 
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The only time I could imagine China actually acting is when the countries internal socio/economic problems reach a point that stirring up jingoism is the only way to deflect attention away from the governments faults & mistakes.

The CCP is winging it at the moment & best be careful - the mob could just as likely look for domestic targets rather than Japan...
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Old 22nd Aug 2012, 15:08   #9 (permalink)
 
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Greenknight is correct - the Chinese can only see the table would be them on one side, everyone else on the other and the Americans next door

TBF the Chinese have a reasonable record of negotiating fair boundaries on a one-to-one basis but they'll never sit down if they think its another 19th Century stitch-up
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Old 22nd Aug 2012, 15:56   #10 (permalink)
 
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OASC circa 1960

Well Bloggs, where do think the next conflict might be

I think the Spratleys is a possibility sir.

Top hold bloggs, collect your commission from the office on your left.

OASC circa 1970

Well Bloggs, where do think the next conflict might be

I think the Spratleys is a possibility sir.

Top hold bloggs, collect your commission from the office on your left.

OASC circa 1980

Well Bloggs, where ......

You get my drift
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Old 23rd Aug 2012, 10:39   #11 (permalink)
 
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problem is that sometimes long term disputes flare up suddenly

think Falklands or the India China Border in '62

best to deal with them when the world is (relatively) quiet
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Old 23rd Aug 2012, 20:30   #12 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
U.S. policy with respect to sovereignty issues in Asian-Pacific waters has been that we take no sides, that such matters must be settled peacefully among the parties involved.
Quote:
Well, that'd be a first...
Ehmm not sure that it would be a first.

I seem to remember some words from some yank politician:

On the 25th, Saddam Hussein met with April Glaspie, an American ambassador, in Baghdad. According to an Iraqi transcript of that meeting, Glaspie told the Iraqi delegation, "We have no opinion on the Arab-Arab conflicts." According to Glaspie's own account, she stated in reference to the precise border between Kuwait and Iraq, "(...) that she had served in Kuwait 20 years before; 'then, as now, we took no position on these Arab affairs'."

Sounds like a similar position to me

Last edited by SRENNAPS; 23rd Aug 2012 at 20:37.
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Old 10th Sep 2012, 12:30   #13 (permalink)
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Torygraph: China's Revolution Risk
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Old 10th Sep 2012, 14:15   #14 (permalink)
 
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The future looks goods for these two nations, as western economies fail a move to a closer economic relationship between China and Russia will make them hugely less reliant on the west.
‘Slowly but surely, China has been winning its rivalry with Japan' — RT

Russia's trade with Asia-Pacific region to be more than with EU in 10 years — RT

Interesting article about Hillary Clinton in China:-
Clinton, China haven't narrowed gaps on Syria, sea
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Old 10th Sep 2012, 14:29   #15 (permalink)
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I wouldn't make a bet on it Ron - more chance of a land grab by the Chinese for Siberia and the Far east for it's resources....

Russia: The World's Largest Dying Empire

Motherless Russia - Muslims and Chinese Vie For Huge Assets of Dying Nation
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Old 10th Sep 2012, 15:02   #16 (permalink)
 
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Interesting links ORAC.

Most of my Chinese and Russian friends seem to see the importance of their mutual relationship, they view each other as the most reliable of allies. Think the term ''Russia is our brother'' was used! Considering how bad things between them were a few decades back its amazing. But then again look at Vietnam and the USA!

My friends though are a cross selection of civilians and in no way linked to the governments. With the Chinese people I find a general dislike of the government in that they view them as to weak, especially on the Japan issue! In this respect the current Chinese government are a voice of moderation. IF hardliners took over then who knows what will happen.

I think in some ways a very vocal US has driven Russia and China much closer together. They would be fools to allow themselves to ever end up at war, a closer relationship is in the interests of both nations. I don't think either would make that mistake though, their leaderships are probably the most capable governments on the planet. Together they are very powerful indeed. If governments or leaders change however then who knows!

Last edited by Ronald Reagan; 10th Sep 2012 at 15:04.
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Old 10th Sep 2012, 16:17   #17 (permalink)
 
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You know, reading all that, I cant help but feel that we'd be a hell of a lot safer if we had SHAR available to send over there and give those naughty foreigners what for...
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Old 11th Sep 2012, 09:32   #18 (permalink)
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The whole area seems to be in a frenzy....

China deploys two warships after Tokyo announces disputed island purchase
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Old 11th Sep 2012, 11:20   #19 (permalink)
 
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Beagle quoted;
Quote:
I guess there's no oil then?
I operated out of Wenzhou at the end of the nineties. It was to an exploration rig some 125 miles offshore. It was effectively equadistant from China, Taiwan and the Diaoyu Islands. Initial seismic results had promised another Aberdeen but the drilling in this case was unsuccessful. It is still going on but the advances in that area has been gas somewhat further north. However the Chinese are patient and history has proven that the first attempts at oil discovery are not neccessarily successful.

Our biggest problem was that the rig was at the junction of the Chinese and Taiwanese ADIZs. We would keep at 200ft for the last 30 miles on the way in and vise versa so that we weren't disturbed by Su27s or F16s.

Wenzhou had a long history with Jesuit missionaries and as a result it is famous for the beauty of its women. They were right; absolute stunners, every one of them.

Last edited by Fareastdriver; 11th Sep 2012 at 12:48.
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Old 11th Sep 2012, 11:30   #20 (permalink)
 
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Thanks for posting the link, very interesting.

I also noted this:-
Mystery over whereabouts of China's leader-in-waiting Xi Jinping - Telegraph
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