15 ton "Big blu"
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Malkin Tower
Posts: 847
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
none of the South Korean press agencies are showing or reporting signs of panic or military readiness
The only speculation seems to be "was the heart attack real or induced" with suspicion falling on ousted members of the North Korean military
The only speculation seems to be "was the heart attack real or induced" with suspicion falling on ousted members of the North Korean military
Join Date: May 2000
Location: UK and where I'm sent!
Posts: 519
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
That's it exactly. The South Koreans are happily thinking the handover of power will take 10 days. What better time to hit them? Their forces are on "heightened alert", but that's just a minimal effort done as posturing.
At first I thought it might have been Mosad, seeking to shift the World's attention off them ahead of their Iranian strike. But now I'm sure it was the CIA, attempting to destabilize the regime. They will find their plan has all gone horribly wrong!
At first I thought it might have been Mosad, seeking to shift the World's attention off them ahead of their Iranian strike. But now I'm sure it was the CIA, attempting to destabilize the regime. They will find their plan has all gone horribly wrong!
Last edited by Mach Two; 19th Dec 2011 at 11:33.
Join Date: May 2000
Location: UK and where I'm sent!
Posts: 519
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
They can hold them up. North has over 1,000,000 regulars and their reservists aren't quickly mobilized. South has 700,000 regulars and 3,000,000 reserves at readiness. The South have been effectively holding them back for decades.
Problem is that Obama wants re-election so won't get involved. Probably pull everone out of South Korea. That removes another barrier to the North using their nukes on their long range Nodong 1 missiles. They only have eight so they'll want to target carefully.
Remember they've got loads of chemical weapons, over 5,000 tons of them. Yes, this will be a WMD war before the end of the week.
Problem is that Obama wants re-election so won't get involved. Probably pull everone out of South Korea. That removes another barrier to the North using their nukes on their long range Nodong 1 missiles. They only have eight so they'll want to target carefully.
Remember they've got loads of chemical weapons, over 5,000 tons of them. Yes, this will be a WMD war before the end of the week.
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Midlands, England
Posts: 252
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
North Korea test fires a missile
KIMmortal: Death not the end as N. Korea tests missile — RT
North Korea has reportedly conducted at least one short-range missile test amid worldwide concerns that the death of Kim Jong-il could destabilize the most militarized region in the world.
South Korea's Yonhap news agency said Monday’s test came as North Korean state media announced the country’s longstanding leader had died of a heart attack while traveling by train.
South Korean military officials were unable to immediately confirm the report, saying it would be a breach of policy to comment on intelligence matters. However, government officials, speaking under condition of anonymity, told Yonhap the test had taken place off the country’s east coast, on the Sea of Japan.
A source from Russia’ Foreign Ministry also told Interfax news agency they were unable to confirm whether or not North Korea had launched a short-ranged ballistic missile.
However, despite international concerns, the launch is unlikely to be connected with news of Kim Jong-il’s death, as South Korean authorities reported it was carried out prior to the official announcement concerning Kim’s passing, Interfax reports.
But James Corbett, editor of Japan-based news website Corbett Report, thinks the reported missile tests were a demonstration of power for the neighbors and the world. “The new regime in North Korea is looking to assert its power and to show that it obviously still exists at the world stage and that this is not going to destabilize the country.”
Meanwhile, as North Korean state media has hailed Kim Jong-il’s youngest son Kim Jung-un as the "great successor," the world community is increasingly alarmed over the impact of instability in a state which has actively pursued nuclear weapons.
The Untied States expressed its ongoing commitment to stability on the Korean peninsula amid the news of Kim senior’s death
Speaking with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak by phone, President Barack Obama said he would closely monitor developments.
Japan held a special security meaning “to deal with the unexpected.”
Meanwhile, South Korea put its military on high alert as the country has technically remained at war with the north since the 1953 Armistice agreement halted major hostilities.
As the size of North Korea’s nuclear weapon’s stockpile remains unknown, the country proved its capability with the successful detonation of a nuclear device on October 9, 2006.
Then, on April 14, 2009, North Korea conducted its second nuclear weapons test after the six-party talks aimed at peacefully resolving security concerns arising from the country’s nuclear program collapsed in 2008.
It is currently estimated that North Korea has enough plutonium to make six bombs, though they are not yet believed to have the ballistic missile capability which would allow the country to deliver a nuclear warhead.
With a 1.2 million-strong standing force, North Korea currently has the world’s fourth-largest army.
RT talked to Rudiger Frank, professor of East Asian Economy and Society at the University of Vienna, who thinks there are three possible scenarios of how North Korea will continue its nuclear program now that Kim Jong-il is gone. The scenarios he offers depend on who will take power in the country.
“If Kim Jong-un takes over… North Korea will continue to play the nuclear card as a bargaining chip in negotiations. If a collective leadership along the Chinese example will be installed there are chances of actually North Korea giving up its nuclear program, because it does not need it anymore.”
Professor Frank also says there is a possibility of a chaos scenario with no particular leadership in the country. In this case “we might even have to fear that these weapons are used in this way or the other.”
Coldair.
p.s. Sam, please keep posting. Your comments are very thought provoking and have given me an insight into subjects I was little aware of.
North Korea has reportedly conducted at least one short-range missile test amid worldwide concerns that the death of Kim Jong-il could destabilize the most militarized region in the world.
South Korea's Yonhap news agency said Monday’s test came as North Korean state media announced the country’s longstanding leader had died of a heart attack while traveling by train.
South Korean military officials were unable to immediately confirm the report, saying it would be a breach of policy to comment on intelligence matters. However, government officials, speaking under condition of anonymity, told Yonhap the test had taken place off the country’s east coast, on the Sea of Japan.
A source from Russia’ Foreign Ministry also told Interfax news agency they were unable to confirm whether or not North Korea had launched a short-ranged ballistic missile.
However, despite international concerns, the launch is unlikely to be connected with news of Kim Jong-il’s death, as South Korean authorities reported it was carried out prior to the official announcement concerning Kim’s passing, Interfax reports.
But James Corbett, editor of Japan-based news website Corbett Report, thinks the reported missile tests were a demonstration of power for the neighbors and the world. “The new regime in North Korea is looking to assert its power and to show that it obviously still exists at the world stage and that this is not going to destabilize the country.”
Meanwhile, as North Korean state media has hailed Kim Jong-il’s youngest son Kim Jung-un as the "great successor," the world community is increasingly alarmed over the impact of instability in a state which has actively pursued nuclear weapons.
The Untied States expressed its ongoing commitment to stability on the Korean peninsula amid the news of Kim senior’s death
Speaking with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak by phone, President Barack Obama said he would closely monitor developments.
Japan held a special security meaning “to deal with the unexpected.”
Meanwhile, South Korea put its military on high alert as the country has technically remained at war with the north since the 1953 Armistice agreement halted major hostilities.
As the size of North Korea’s nuclear weapon’s stockpile remains unknown, the country proved its capability with the successful detonation of a nuclear device on October 9, 2006.
Then, on April 14, 2009, North Korea conducted its second nuclear weapons test after the six-party talks aimed at peacefully resolving security concerns arising from the country’s nuclear program collapsed in 2008.
It is currently estimated that North Korea has enough plutonium to make six bombs, though they are not yet believed to have the ballistic missile capability which would allow the country to deliver a nuclear warhead.
With a 1.2 million-strong standing force, North Korea currently has the world’s fourth-largest army.
RT talked to Rudiger Frank, professor of East Asian Economy and Society at the University of Vienna, who thinks there are three possible scenarios of how North Korea will continue its nuclear program now that Kim Jong-il is gone. The scenarios he offers depend on who will take power in the country.
“If Kim Jong-un takes over… North Korea will continue to play the nuclear card as a bargaining chip in negotiations. If a collective leadership along the Chinese example will be installed there are chances of actually North Korea giving up its nuclear program, because it does not need it anymore.”
Professor Frank also says there is a possibility of a chaos scenario with no particular leadership in the country. In this case “we might even have to fear that these weapons are used in this way or the other.”
Coldair.
p.s. Sam, please keep posting. Your comments are very thought provoking and have given me an insight into subjects I was little aware of.
Join Date: May 2000
Location: UK and where I'm sent!
Posts: 519
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I agree with all three of those scenarios. But the third is the one. Their window of opportunity is running out. Their bombs will not last forever (no infinite shelf-life, you know) and opportunities like this don't come along every day.
They like to use big external events to divert public gaze away from internal problems, usually bashing South Korea. There will be lots of internal opposition to Kim Jong Um becoming the great successor, so seizing power quickly and effectively taking his country to war is his best hope of securing power.
They like to use big external events to divert public gaze away from internal problems, usually bashing South Korea. There will be lots of internal opposition to Kim Jong Um becoming the great successor, so seizing power quickly and effectively taking his country to war is his best hope of securing power.
There will be lots of internal opposition to Kim Jong Um becoming the great successor, so seizing power quickly and effectively taking his country to war is his best hope of securing power.
Join Date: May 2000
Location: UK and where I'm sent!
Posts: 519
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
My analysis on a sound report from the DEBKAfile – posted on the thread:
Kim Jong-Il Dead - S. Korea on DefCon 3
1. Elements of the North Korean army or its security services could go head to head for a power grab in Pyongyang, potentially sparking civil strife in this enigmatic nation of 24 million.
2. To keep any such violence from spilling across its borders, China may send troops into North Korea bringing similar action from Seoul, possibly with US backing. China has a large North Korean expatriate minority which respects Pyongyang rather than Beijing and is therefore a source of unrest.
3. The big difference between then and now is that today North Korea has nuclear arms and there is no knowing at what point someone in Pyongyang may decide to use them.
4. A recent Pentagon situation paper estimates that if the Korean Peninsula descended into domestic anarchy and civil strife, the United States would be called on to raise an army of intervention numbering 400,000 soldiers, 100,000 more than the size of US forces fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan at the peak of those conflicts.
5. North Korea maintains thriving nuclear, military and technological relations with Iran and Syria. Hundreds of technicians and engineers, including nuclear and missile experts, have worked for years on their nuclear and missile programs.
Kim Jong-Il Dead - S. Korea on DefCon 3
1. Elements of the North Korean army or its security services could go head to head for a power grab in Pyongyang, potentially sparking civil strife in this enigmatic nation of 24 million.
They could very well do this and Kim Jong Um knows it. That is exactly we he needs to grab power immediately and then get his generals and his people busy on a distraction.
2. To keep any such violence from spilling across its borders, China may send troops into North Korea bringing similar action from Seoul, possibly with US backing. China has a large North Korean expatriate minority which respects Pyongyang rather than Beijing and is therefore a source of unrest.
China knows the few nukes NK has aren’t coming their way. Also they would look much better in the public eye if they didn’t get involved… …yet. Much better to wait until it’s all over and then wade in with a “solution” and grab NK for itself – to protect its population, clearly.
Of the US troops stationed for 58 years on the armistice lines between South and North, about 28,500 remain and could be involved in a conflict with the potential of exploding into another Korean War. The first war in the 1950s cost several armies more than a million lives.Never. Obama it trying hard to extricate himself from all these issues so that the US voters see him as a peace-maker and as the guy that brought the troops home.
3. The big difference between then and now is that today North Korea has nuclear arms and there is no knowing at what point someone in Pyongyang may decide to use them.
I’ve told you that already.
4. A recent Pentagon situation paper estimates that if the Korean Peninsula descended into domestic anarchy and civil strife, the United States would be called on to raise an army of intervention numbering 400,000 soldiers, 100,000 more than the size of US forces fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan at the peak of those conflicts.
Their deficit is bigger than anyone’s. Mr Kim Jr knows that.
5. North Korea maintains thriving nuclear, military and technological relations with Iran and Syria. Hundreds of technicians and engineers, including nuclear and missile experts, have worked for years on their nuclear and missile programs.
And they will continue to do so. Syria needs all the friends it can get.
My estimate is sound.Join Date: May 2011
Location: Malkin Tower
Posts: 847
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
well also according to Debka
Syria has stationed Scuds on the Turkish border, some chemically armed
Has allegedly ordered 3 million gas masks
Has placed Russian anti-shipping missile on its coastline
Now, with the Russian fleet heading to the Eastern Med in time for Christmas, with Iran about to start naval war games including missile testing - probably including that new anti-ship ballistic missile and making increasingly belligerent noises in its press, and with the USA vacating Iraq the stage is set for a major three-front attack against the west.
First a drive by the North Koreans into the South, dragging in the the USA and Japan, and miring the USA army there
Next a drive by Iran across Shia-held Iraq creating a supply corridor to Syria, so threatening Israel, with the Russian holding the coastal "back door" closed.
Finally a direct assault by Iran into Afghanistan to displace the Western forces there. The FAR news agency this week printed what was basically a direct threat against the Afghani government for allowing the USA to fly drones into Iranian air space
If the Pakistanis were to join in as well, then we'd be ****ed. Pakistan closed the two overland routes into Afghanistan last week, so in the event of a retreat our forces would have to fight their way out along the Khyber pass and then take over a port
The only alternative overland route is into the Caucasus states- where Russia will be waiting.
Mach two - I think you have seriously underestimated the problem
If that mad bitch in Argentina decides to play silly buggers then we Brits are going to have a very hard time defining priorities
PS - I wonder how much the event which caused the Pakistanis to close the overland routes - the shelling of the border post - was contrived by them to create an excuse to close the passes to the coalition forces? By the time of any attack the passes will have been closed for three / four weeks with corresponding reductions in supplies
Syria has stationed Scuds on the Turkish border, some chemically armed
Has allegedly ordered 3 million gas masks
Has placed Russian anti-shipping missile on its coastline
Now, with the Russian fleet heading to the Eastern Med in time for Christmas, with Iran about to start naval war games including missile testing - probably including that new anti-ship ballistic missile and making increasingly belligerent noises in its press, and with the USA vacating Iraq the stage is set for a major three-front attack against the west.
First a drive by the North Koreans into the South, dragging in the the USA and Japan, and miring the USA army there
Next a drive by Iran across Shia-held Iraq creating a supply corridor to Syria, so threatening Israel, with the Russian holding the coastal "back door" closed.
Finally a direct assault by Iran into Afghanistan to displace the Western forces there. The FAR news agency this week printed what was basically a direct threat against the Afghani government for allowing the USA to fly drones into Iranian air space
If the Pakistanis were to join in as well, then we'd be ****ed. Pakistan closed the two overland routes into Afghanistan last week, so in the event of a retreat our forces would have to fight their way out along the Khyber pass and then take over a port
The only alternative overland route is into the Caucasus states- where Russia will be waiting.
Mach two - I think you have seriously underestimated the problem
If that mad bitch in Argentina decides to play silly buggers then we Brits are going to have a very hard time defining priorities
PS - I wonder how much the event which caused the Pakistanis to close the overland routes - the shelling of the border post - was contrived by them to create an excuse to close the passes to the coalition forces? By the time of any attack the passes will have been closed for three / four weeks with corresponding reductions in supplies
Last edited by jamesdevice; 19th Dec 2011 at 19:11.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Australia - South of where I'd like to be !
Age: 59
Posts: 4,261
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
James
After reading your post, I am so glad I am going away for 2 weeks and be out of contact with the world, except for a 2 day old out of date newspaper.
.
After reading your post, I am so glad I am going away for 2 weeks and be out of contact with the world, except for a 2 day old out of date newspaper.
.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Australia - South of where I'd like to be !
Age: 59
Posts: 4,261
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
James
"except for a 2 day old out of date newspaper."
Not for reading I presume?"
Yes, we sometimes don't get it until 2 days after the day it is released.
They aren't that backward out there, however I must admit it was only last year they built the old Shower block, previously it was stand under a shower rose connected to a 40 foot high water tank !!!
"except for a 2 day old out of date newspaper."
Not for reading I presume?"
Yes, we sometimes don't get it until 2 days after the day it is released.
They aren't that backward out there, however I must admit it was only last year they built the old Shower block, previously it was stand under a shower rose connected to a 40 foot high water tank !!!
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Glasgow
Age: 61
Posts: 909
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Mach Two,
You are incorrect re your intel reference assassination of Kim Jong II by CIA. The assassination was actually an SO13 led project aimed at persuading North Korea to pay Congestion Charges for London, along with all their parking fines.
You are incorrect re your intel reference assassination of Kim Jong II by CIA. The assassination was actually an SO13 led project aimed at persuading North Korea to pay Congestion Charges for London, along with all their parking fines.
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Malkin Tower
Posts: 847
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
M2
its been over an hour and no real flaming so far.. I was expecting the treatment SAMXXV got at least. I think the lack of response suggests that some people are taking it seriously
its been over an hour and no real flaming so far.. I was expecting the treatment SAMXXV got at least. I think the lack of response suggests that some people are taking it seriously
I have my Kevlar, lead lined umbrella up.
Why are you folks so worried?
Why are you folks so worried?