LIBYA (Merged) Use this thread ONLY
Guys,
Harrier / SHAR are gone - get over it. Only the latter would be any use in the current situation. Of more use would be Ark with 5 CH47s on board and a hangar deck configured as a dormitory.
This does however punch a few more holes in the HNS arguement; how far is Malta? How many jets/tankers would you need to maintain a 24/7 CAP? Bet we can't do it.
Mr Fox et al,
What you have here is your genuine "strategic shock". The military is your (our) insurance policy against them. Don't pay your premium, don't expect to be covered. I wouldn't mind betting that some "conspiracy of optimism" career-hungry starred officers who've played the triple/quadruple hatting of assets game to curry favour have had an awkward couple of days explaining that (stand fast Typhoon...) the cupboard is bare....
Harrier / SHAR are gone - get over it. Only the latter would be any use in the current situation. Of more use would be Ark with 5 CH47s on board and a hangar deck configured as a dormitory.
This does however punch a few more holes in the HNS arguement; how far is Malta? How many jets/tankers would you need to maintain a 24/7 CAP? Bet we can't do it.
Mr Fox et al,
What you have here is your genuine "strategic shock". The military is your (our) insurance policy against them. Don't pay your premium, don't expect to be covered. I wouldn't mind betting that some "conspiracy of optimism" career-hungry starred officers who've played the triple/quadruple hatting of assets game to curry favour have had an awkward couple of days explaining that (stand fast Typhoon...) the cupboard is bare....
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"What could they do that a Typhoon squadron, supported by tankers if necessary, at Luqa could not do? There is no need to operate outside of allied airbases and in international waters in this situation"
Except that Luqa is not an allied base and Malta is neutral and non-allinged although a EU member.
Just a thought but as it's airspace has already been violated once by two Libyan Mirages (whose pilots were seeking asylum) what if the bulk of the Air Force has remained loyal and the next that might arrive have other ideas? Is Malta looking for air cover?
Except that Luqa is not an allied base and Malta is neutral and non-allinged although a EU member.
Just a thought but as it's airspace has already been violated once by two Libyan Mirages (whose pilots were seeking asylum) what if the bulk of the Air Force has remained loyal and the next that might arrive have other ideas? Is Malta looking for air cover?
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Lord Owen
Just heard Lord Owen spouting on Sky News about how easy it would be for Tornados operating from Cyprus to enforce an NFZ! He also seems to think the US can magic up a couple of CVBGs at the drop of a hat as well.
Having spent so much time in eth public eye, it appears his ego won't let him slip away and enjoy his retirement, rather than talking hoop to stir up the Wail and Depress readers.
This is also the man with such a good grasp of geography that on Wed morning he was on the Beeb telling the world how NATO airbases 'surround Libya'. While I accept hat the French may have access to basing in Chad to the south, and the Americans may have access to basing in Egypt to the east, these are bilateral argeements rather than 'NATO', and I'm not sure Algeria would be to happy providing access on Libya's western side.
Having spent so much time in eth public eye, it appears his ego won't let him slip away and enjoy his retirement, rather than talking hoop to stir up the Wail and Depress readers.
This is also the man with such a good grasp of geography that on Wed morning he was on the Beeb telling the world how NATO airbases 'surround Libya'. While I accept hat the French may have access to basing in Chad to the south, and the Americans may have access to basing in Egypt to the east, these are bilateral argeements rather than 'NATO', and I'm not sure Algeria would be to happy providing access on Libya's western side.
Originally Posted by Evalu8ter
how far is Malta?
With Crete about the same distance away north from Toburk, that might be a better base for coverage of the eastern half of Libya...????
Not going to happen though I would think.
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The Aim
Giving this a bit more thought, there's little point in just enforcing a NFZ, it would need to be in order to achieve something. Stopping the Libyan's bombing and strafing themselves would be a good start but there would be some ROE issues especially as civil air needs to continue for a good while yet. There is little point in threatening to shoot down Libyan military aircraft if they then close down their airspace to all users and deny use of the international airports. We would probably need to offer some protection and cover to civ air where possible. This would be a huge commitment. A likely scenario might be to totally closedown the airspace in the west but maintain some civi air corridors to airfields in the east,
Very soon after, we would need to be able to get in close to provide some kind of recce and attack cover for the population on the ground along the lines of that provided for the Marsh Arabs. Not ideal and not easy but putting troops on the ground would likely be a non-starter. And so the whole thing could escalate.
The term NFZ is very misleading. We should really be talking about something between a favourable air situation and air supremacy and then define what we would do with it. The SAMs would be a continuing issue.
Whatever the operation, I really don't think that a CVS with a few Harriers would have been up to much - so do we really miss them? They would have provided a lot of hot air and bluster on the news but would likely provided very little to the NATO air commander.
Very soon after, we would need to be able to get in close to provide some kind of recce and attack cover for the population on the ground along the lines of that provided for the Marsh Arabs. Not ideal and not easy but putting troops on the ground would likely be a non-starter. And so the whole thing could escalate.
The term NFZ is very misleading. We should really be talking about something between a favourable air situation and air supremacy and then define what we would do with it. The SAMs would be a continuing issue.
Whatever the operation, I really don't think that a CVS with a few Harriers would have been up to much - so do we really miss them? They would have provided a lot of hot air and bluster on the news but would likely provided very little to the NATO air commander.
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as in Kosovo whenthe main killers are the ground based militia going house to house you can only help a little from the air
you need the Poor Bloody Infantry on the ground and
a) we don't have any spare as they are propping up that beacon of human rights President Karzai
and
b) the public would go ape
you need the Poor Bloody Infantry on the ground and
a) we don't have any spare as they are propping up that beacon of human rights President Karzai
and
b) the public would go ape
UKSF and 1 Para (UKSF support) are already out in Luqa. I expect that they will wait until there is clear and direct danger to UK oilfield workers before taking action - politically it would be very difficult to deploy otherwise. I'd expect that there are a few guys on the ground out there already. It is still possible to fly in civilian aircraft - I went down to Sabha a few days ago - so they could get in discreetly.
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Why the continued calls for a NFZ?
I continue to hear calls for a NFZ, yet I have not read or heard any reports of bombing or strafing by a Libyan air force.
And on another thread ATC Watcher reported “On the military side, the French "consultants" refurbishing the Mirages F1 are back in France and the only 2 F1s serviceable defected to Malta.”
Did I miss something?
And on another thread ATC Watcher reported “On the military side, the French "consultants" refurbishing the Mirages F1 are back in France and the only 2 F1s serviceable defected to Malta.”
Did I miss something?
Are the RAF going to bill the oil companies for getting their people out? Otherwise these flights just undermine commercial operators.
We just did a charter down to Sabha to pick up some oil workers, and we had two other firm enquiries which have now not materialised, which is hardly surprising if the RAF are now doing it for free
We just did a charter down to Sabha to pick up some oil workers, and we had two other firm enquiries which have now not materialised, which is hardly surprising if the RAF are now doing it for free
Trim
I have asked this question a couple of times and have failed to get a definitive answer. Threads on other boards would suggest (although you shouldn't believe everything you read on the internet ....
) that the FCO charged for those evacuated from Egypt earlier in the year but that the PM has stated (I guess through embarassment) that those evacuated from Libya (by HMG chartered flights) would be free. Still looking for a firm quote to back this 'rumour' up. If true I could see a lot of Egypt evacuees seeking a refund.
A FoI question appears to have been asked (that's not me asking, by the way! Is it you????!
) .....
I have asked this question a couple of times and have failed to get a definitive answer. Threads on other boards would suggest (although you shouldn't believe everything you read on the internet ....
) that the FCO charged for those evacuated from Egypt earlier in the year but that the PM has stated (I guess through embarassment) that those evacuated from Libya (by HMG chartered flights) would be free. Still looking for a firm quote to back this 'rumour' up. If true I could see a lot of Egypt evacuees seeking a refund. A FoI question appears to have been asked (that's not me asking, by the way! Is it you????!
) .....
Kappa,
There have been reports since the start of Gadaffi forces using their aircraft and helos against the opposition. The media have shown evidence of this such as Hind helos firing their cannon and also at least one MiG-23 flying over opposition territory. One Su-22 Fitter is reported to have crashed after the crew ejected.
The Pilots who defected with their Mirage F1 reported that they were ordered to attack the opposition. They arrived in Malta with their Mirage F1s carrying Matra F1 rocket pods that had not been fired.
502 - Libya - Air Force Dassault Mirage F1 Aircraft Photo | Airplane-Pictures.net
Other images on the following thread.
http://www.pprune.org/military-aircr...ect-malta.html
Reports in the media today have claims that opposition groups have shot down an attack helo and captured the crew.
Opposition forces have also been shown re-painting captured Hind helos with their own markings.
TJ
There have been reports since the start of Gadaffi forces using their aircraft and helos against the opposition. The media have shown evidence of this such as Hind helos firing their cannon and also at least one MiG-23 flying over opposition territory. One Su-22 Fitter is reported to have crashed after the crew ejected.
The Pilots who defected with their Mirage F1 reported that they were ordered to attack the opposition. They arrived in Malta with their Mirage F1s carrying Matra F1 rocket pods that had not been fired.
502 - Libya - Air Force Dassault Mirage F1 Aircraft Photo | Airplane-Pictures.net
Other images on the following thread.
http://www.pprune.org/military-aircr...ect-malta.html
Reports in the media today have claims that opposition groups have shot down an attack helo and captured the crew.
Opposition forces have also been shown re-painting captured Hind helos with their own markings.
TJ
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There have been reports since the start of Gadaffi forces using their aircraft and helos against the opposition. The media have shown evidence of this such as Hind helos firing their cannon and also at least one MiG-23 flying over opposition territory. One Su-22 Fitter is reported to have crashed after the crew ejected.
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Now is probably the right time for the NATO Response Force to come out from under a stone and swing into action. This would leave just a few days for the usual nutters (mostly senior RN and RM officers) to rant about an independent UK carrier force before we see how it's done by the professional air arms. I read somewhere that a retired UK RM general thought that all that's needed for a Libyan air operation is a few Harriers (with no radar) and some helicopters from a through deck cruiser. Wally! Lord West's comments are similarly daft and you can almost see his tongue sicking out from his cheek.
The idea that this could be done from a single UK future carrier is fanciful and, to my ears, ridiculously amateurish. Any kind of military response, even if 'just' a NFZ needs to credible, sustainable over an indefinite period and demonstrate an overwhelming capability. I stick by the view that a comprehensive package of air power would be required including recce, AWACS, AAR, UAVs etc to do this properly.
If I were Gadaffi, I know what my greatest fear would be and it's not some future HMS Queen Hopeful tarting about off the coast.
The US Carrier force is something entirely different. The reason the first question of the US CinC at the start of a crisis is, "Where are the carriers?" is because they take a while to get moving if they aren't in place. The US President doesn't have to ask, "Where is the USAF?". He kind of assumes it's available and ready.
If we put all of our eggs into one or two future carriers, there is a significant risk that it would be stuck in dock, on the other side of the world or hopelessly short of aircraft, weapons, role equipment and logistics to react in time. If we could have 4 or 5 carriers and a rounded air package embarked then fine. We wouldn't ever get that, just some half-arsed capability that might or might not be responsive enough to react in time. It might be nice to have in some circumstances but it's just not the top priority when it come to controlling air for the joint effort.
My money goes on NATO mounting something from bases in southern Europe with some carriers in support and run from Lisbon.
The idea that this could be done from a single UK future carrier is fanciful and, to my ears, ridiculously amateurish. Any kind of military response, even if 'just' a NFZ needs to credible, sustainable over an indefinite period and demonstrate an overwhelming capability. I stick by the view that a comprehensive package of air power would be required including recce, AWACS, AAR, UAVs etc to do this properly.
If I were Gadaffi, I know what my greatest fear would be and it's not some future HMS Queen Hopeful tarting about off the coast.
The US Carrier force is something entirely different. The reason the first question of the US CinC at the start of a crisis is, "Where are the carriers?" is because they take a while to get moving if they aren't in place. The US President doesn't have to ask, "Where is the USAF?". He kind of assumes it's available and ready.
If we put all of our eggs into one or two future carriers, there is a significant risk that it would be stuck in dock, on the other side of the world or hopelessly short of aircraft, weapons, role equipment and logistics to react in time. If we could have 4 or 5 carriers and a rounded air package embarked then fine. We wouldn't ever get that, just some half-arsed capability that might or might not be responsive enough to react in time. It might be nice to have in some circumstances but it's just not the top priority when it come to controlling air for the joint effort.
My money goes on NATO mounting something from bases in southern Europe with some carriers in support and run from Lisbon.
with what? Harriers operating from Ark Royal. Overwatched by Nimrod?
Dave C., get real you silly PM.
Leave it to people with principles and assets, Dave.
Dave C., get real you silly PM.
Leave it to people with principles and assets, Dave.
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
NATO re-oriented its threat axis about 20 years ago so at least it is facing the right direction even if its forces are still the wrong kind in the wrong place.
Now is probably the right time for the NATO Response Force to come out from under a stone and swing into action.
Or are you imagining that NATO would abandon its statutes and take pre-emptive action, even though there has not been an attack on a NATO member?
I agree with the rest of your post though - the idea that a carrier would be useful here is laughable. If the UNSC approved, or if NATO really did need to impose an NFZ over Libya through a direct threat to a member, there are plenty of unsinkable airfields nearby that can accommodate more capable aircraft, more quickly and less expensively than any solutions NATO could deploy from a carrier.
Last edited by Trim Stab; 28th Feb 2011 at 17:38.