New Falklands War Brewing
PN.....At what point does the presumed lack of capability by the other side....cause a tipping point in which conflict kicks off? Does a full and total occupation of the Falklands have to occur to meet the political needs of the Argies?
If they did effect a sizable landing but not go after the British Forces in totality, ignored the Airfield....but maintained a well defended enclave....would it force the Brits to make parley.....or make War again?
Could the Brits rely upon the Obama Administration to be as friendly as was the Reagan Administration? Would Obama risk alienating South American interests by standing by a traditional Ally?
His track record on that is spotty at best.
If they did effect a sizable landing but not go after the British Forces in totality, ignored the Airfield....but maintained a well defended enclave....would it force the Brits to make parley.....or make War again?
Could the Brits rely upon the Obama Administration to be as friendly as was the Reagan Administration? Would Obama risk alienating South American interests by standing by a traditional Ally?
His track record on that is spotty at best.
I guess you reckon the Argies would show up with Pop Guns and Sling Shots of course.
How many losses could the Typhoons sustain before they are out of business?
Would the Argies be engaged immediately if they themselves did not engage British forces during their landing?
Hell's Bells partner....think outside the box for once.....they could all be civilians in mufti when they come ashore and merely doing a homesteading thing on some isolated part of the Falklands. It does not have to be a "Military" invasion.
Look at our border with Mexico....12-15 Million of the rascals have "invaded" us.
How many losses could the Typhoons sustain before they are out of business?
Would the Argies be engaged immediately if they themselves did not engage British forces during their landing?
Hell's Bells partner....think outside the box for once.....they could all be civilians in mufti when they come ashore and merely doing a homesteading thing on some isolated part of the Falklands. It does not have to be a "Military" invasion.
Look at our border with Mexico....12-15 Million of the rascals have "invaded" us.
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: netherlands
Age: 56
Posts: 769
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Yes more likely.
An invasion of hundreds of Argentine civilians, old, young, men, women, setting op dozens of camps, looking happy, making music and singing around camp fires.
A second invasion of dozens of live camera teams with satelite connections, sending out 24/7, un-ediited.
A third invasion by the global media discussing colonialism and colonial history.
Any show of force would be oil on the fire / looking 18th century imperialist.
Welcome to 2013.
An invasion of hundreds of Argentine civilians, old, young, men, women, setting op dozens of camps, looking happy, making music and singing around camp fires.
A second invasion of dozens of live camera teams with satelite connections, sending out 24/7, un-ediited.
A third invasion by the global media discussing colonialism and colonial history.
Any show of force would be oil on the fire / looking 18th century imperialist.
Welcome to 2013.
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
How would they get there?
These civilians, are going to bring more than
Pop Guns and Sling Shots
and
invasion of hundreds of Argentine civilians, old, young, men, women, setting op dozens of camps, looking happy, making music and singing around camp fires.
How many does it take PN....a few hundred.....or tens of thousands?
How much force does one use against unarmed civilians that decide not to vacate the premises when instructed to do so?
If the Argies are smart....they will not go the military avenue....but use other more photogenic means.
World Opinion can be a fickle thing.
How much force does one use against unarmed civilians that decide not to vacate the premises when instructed to do so?
If the Argies are smart....they will not go the military avenue....but use other more photogenic means.
World Opinion can be a fickle thing.
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
In the case of the scrap metal dealers we send a couple of Jollies and a helicopter who only engaged when countered.
In your scenario we would send a local bobby to arrest them.
How many? Anything more than a handful would be ridden off by a 'coastguard' vessel. Now you can't tell me that other countries don't ride off illegal vessels laden with people. Oddly they don't seem to have heaps of ordure heaped upon them.
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Very close to the Theatre of Dreams!
Posts: 156
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Just cut of thier supply route and they will go when the food runs out, you could do that by declaring an exclusion zone cutting off access from the sea and air and I cant see the islanders feeding them can you
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: netherlands
Age: 56
Posts: 769
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I think it takes only a few minutes to google up a view videos of the Arab spring and we still know how the fall of the wall looked (internet wasn't even there). Happy dancing people making governments look illegal, brutal, dishonest.
Non violent uprising without clear leaders. Nightmare of authorities. Call in the militairy, videos spread at speed of light and the world thinks you are the bad guys. Before you can explain.
Transport, finances, I gues there are 1000 argentines willing to donate 1000 dollar, what do you think?
Non violent uprising without clear leaders. Nightmare of authorities. Call in the militairy, videos spread at speed of light and the world thinks you are the bad guys. Before you can explain.
Transport, finances, I gues there are 1000 argentines willing to donate 1000 dollar, what do you think?
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: London, New York, Paris, Moscow.
Posts: 3,632
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Transport, finances, I gues there are 1000 argentines willing to donate 1000 dollar, what do you think?
Last edited by glad rag; 13th Jan 2013 at 18:30.
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
And have you been there? 10,000 Argies have and they couldn't wait to get home again.
Nothing like a bit of damp and cool to undermine morale.
How do you figure that one out? The locals are on our side.
I forgot to add that last time they chose Autumn for the occupation possibly thinking we would wait until the Spring, if at all, before doing anything. Now, with proper defences in place and just passed what passes for mid-summer, they would be faced with another Autumn adventure under much less favourable conditions.
Nothing like a bit of damp and cool to undermine morale.
an exclusionary zone will punish the locals prior to its intended target.
I forgot to add that last time they chose Autumn for the occupation possibly thinking we would wait until the Spring, if at all, before doing anything. Now, with proper defences in place and just passed what passes for mid-summer, they would be faced with another Autumn adventure under much less favourable conditions.
Last edited by Pontius Navigator; 13th Jan 2013 at 18:40.
Why not station a platoon of tanks on the Islands? And a battery of 105 or 155 field artillery? Deterrent effect. 
Non violent uprising without clear leaders. Nightmare of authorities. Call in the militairy, videos spread at speed of light and the world thinks you are the bad guys. Before you can explain.
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: London
Age: 56
Posts: 42
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Do you think, in the scenario there is an escallation in the war of words, for an E3D to be deployed down south, or are they all taken up with other things here in Europe?
Last time an overt incursion was done was by an Argie Kid who was a 'Mathis Rust Wannbe'. He nicked his old man's Cessna and flew from Argentina to MPA with a peace offering of a box of 50 oranges and a box oftea bags. Flew most of the trip at low level as well from what I heard,but that's no help when all of the RAF AD Radars down there are on top of mountains. Needless to say he was escorted in by a couple of F3's well before crossing the coast and was looking at the wrong end of a number of loaded L85A1's when he came to a halt. (Both himself (after a few days in the nick) and the plane were returned to Argentina, while the Oranges and Tea Bags were confiscated).
There are only two places were a ship of any size can land and off load without the help of landing craft of some sort (which the Argies have no way of getting there as their Ampib capability is almost zero). In either case they are some distance from MPA and somebody will alert the British forces by telephone or radio if loads of Argies come pouring off a boat. At that point the infantry QRF deploys a blocking force and the Typhoon QRA is launched while the other 900 odd Brit servicemen arm up and deploy to defensive positions (and quite a lot of them are actually Army (RE, REME, R Sigs, etc.) and have done some form of infantry training in their time, plus most likely some have done combat time in AFG). CBFFI then phones home and asks for reinforcements. Try it from the Air, and if the Typhoon's don't nail them (oh dear, that compressive radar cover again), the Rapier FSC Batteries will (and of course should they be allowed to land, they will still be looking at the wrong side of the QRF's loaded weapons when they come to a halt (The place is not Entebbe). Of course there is another factor to take into accountand that is a lot of Chilean contractors work there, kill a few of those and I can see Chile throwing all of their teddy's out of the cot and the Argies will be facing F-16s as well.
As for any air battle –
Argies
24 aircraft with AAR capability that can lug ground attack weapons, none with any land attack PGM capacity.
7 AD Aircraft with no AAR capability, no credible BVR capability or defensive aids (thus limiting their range of operation and self-protection).
12 Fighter Bombers with no AAR capability, no credible BVR capability or defensive aids (thus limiting their range of operation and self-protection).
No AEW cover
V
UK
4 x 4.5 Generation aircraft with 16 x AIM-120 AMRAAM and 16 x AIM-132ASRAAM, 27MM Cannon and a comprehensive Defensive Aids System (normal QRA AD fit).
Multiple Rapier FSC all weather SAM batteries around the airfield each fitted with 8 missiles and capable of engaging 2 targets at the same time (Streets ahead of the FSA systems deployed in 1982 as regards reliability and effectiveness, plus the Argies can't avoid engagement by flying under the coverage of the system as they did in San Carlos).
Comprehensive ground based AD radar cover with integrated command and control, backed up by....
...The Guard ship (may or may not be an AAW ship (i.e. T45), but will have a 4.5 inch gun, Radar, Fighter Director plus some form of CIWS which actually works most of the time, and can communicate with Land and Air Forces, plus the UK.
Even if only the QRA Tiffys get off the deck, the chances are that a good quarter of the Argie air forces are dead before they even get close to MPA and any that do get through will be hacked down by the SAMs.
When the Argies took the place in 82, they had a lot of forces and only faced 40 odd bootnecks, even then it took them some time. OK, so they kick off with an SF attack on the main British base as they did in 82. The place is not a few huts at Moddybrook, its huge and there are a lot of items spread all over the place that they would have to hit at the same time to give them any chance of a successful airborne reinforcement before they are fighting the Brits who are armed 24/7 at the place (plus the problem of getting there without being spotted by some Bennie farmer or British patrol). Now they are a shadow of what they had in 82 and have to get past top of the range fighters, SAM and a 1000 odd lads and lasses who can be armed at short notice with automatic rifles and bigger stuff, with quite a few combat veterans in the mix. The art of holding the Falklands is not losing them in the first place, and what the UK has down there is more than enough to hold the place until the C-17s arrive.
Total number of Falkland Residents likely to vote in favour of joining Argentina that I know of in the three trips I've done down there in the last 25 years is a grand total of TWO, and they came to live there from France!!!
There are only two places were a ship of any size can land and off load without the help of landing craft of some sort (which the Argies have no way of getting there as their Ampib capability is almost zero). In either case they are some distance from MPA and somebody will alert the British forces by telephone or radio if loads of Argies come pouring off a boat. At that point the infantry QRF deploys a blocking force and the Typhoon QRA is launched while the other 900 odd Brit servicemen arm up and deploy to defensive positions (and quite a lot of them are actually Army (RE, REME, R Sigs, etc.) and have done some form of infantry training in their time, plus most likely some have done combat time in AFG). CBFFI then phones home and asks for reinforcements. Try it from the Air, and if the Typhoon's don't nail them (oh dear, that compressive radar cover again), the Rapier FSC Batteries will (and of course should they be allowed to land, they will still be looking at the wrong side of the QRF's loaded weapons when they come to a halt (The place is not Entebbe). Of course there is another factor to take into accountand that is a lot of Chilean contractors work there, kill a few of those and I can see Chile throwing all of their teddy's out of the cot and the Argies will be facing F-16s as well.
As for any air battle –
Argies
24 aircraft with AAR capability that can lug ground attack weapons, none with any land attack PGM capacity.
7 AD Aircraft with no AAR capability, no credible BVR capability or defensive aids (thus limiting their range of operation and self-protection).
12 Fighter Bombers with no AAR capability, no credible BVR capability or defensive aids (thus limiting their range of operation and self-protection).
No AEW cover
V
UK
4 x 4.5 Generation aircraft with 16 x AIM-120 AMRAAM and 16 x AIM-132ASRAAM, 27MM Cannon and a comprehensive Defensive Aids System (normal QRA AD fit).
Multiple Rapier FSC all weather SAM batteries around the airfield each fitted with 8 missiles and capable of engaging 2 targets at the same time (Streets ahead of the FSA systems deployed in 1982 as regards reliability and effectiveness, plus the Argies can't avoid engagement by flying under the coverage of the system as they did in San Carlos).
Comprehensive ground based AD radar cover with integrated command and control, backed up by....
...The Guard ship (may or may not be an AAW ship (i.e. T45), but will have a 4.5 inch gun, Radar, Fighter Director plus some form of CIWS which actually works most of the time, and can communicate with Land and Air Forces, plus the UK.
Even if only the QRA Tiffys get off the deck, the chances are that a good quarter of the Argie air forces are dead before they even get close to MPA and any that do get through will be hacked down by the SAMs.
When the Argies took the place in 82, they had a lot of forces and only faced 40 odd bootnecks, even then it took them some time. OK, so they kick off with an SF attack on the main British base as they did in 82. The place is not a few huts at Moddybrook, its huge and there are a lot of items spread all over the place that they would have to hit at the same time to give them any chance of a successful airborne reinforcement before they are fighting the Brits who are armed 24/7 at the place (plus the problem of getting there without being spotted by some Bennie farmer or British patrol). Now they are a shadow of what they had in 82 and have to get past top of the range fighters, SAM and a 1000 odd lads and lasses who can be armed at short notice with automatic rifles and bigger stuff, with quite a few combat veterans in the mix. The art of holding the Falklands is not losing them in the first place, and what the UK has down there is more than enough to hold the place until the C-17s arrive.
Total number of Falkland Residents likely to vote in favour of joining Argentina that I know of in the three trips I've done down there in the last 25 years is a grand total of TWO, and they came to live there from France!!!
Last edited by MAINJAFAD; 14th Jan 2013 at 01:50.
Purveyor of Egg Liqueur to Lucifer
Why not station a platoon of tanks on the Islands?
All that is needed is one 'Falklander' on say Weddell Island to indicate that they want to be Argentinian, an 'Argentinian' settlement is established and the whole discussion about sovereign land and its 'take back' is thrown into the air, as there is now way that legally (as if that's made a difference in the past!) any British force could invade that particular island!
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
