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F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

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F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

Old 7th Feb 2017, 18:44
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F-35 results for the latest Red Flag seem to indicate that the F-35/F-22 package are producing some impressive kill rates.

F-35 Scores Impressive 15:1 Kill Ratio at Red Flag War Games
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Old 7th Feb 2017, 19:57
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So what do uk get for its money.
A 5th Gen Carrier aircraft for ~£98M per jet with growth for the next 40 years
Access and design input via Level 1 partnership
A jet with capability and upgrades which the UK could never afford on its own
Jobs for some 500 UK companies involved in manufacture
A projected return on investment of £2-3 for each £1 we put in (depends on total production run through-life) - 15% UK workshare in every ac off the line.

So, quite a lot actually. And that's without stating the mind-blowing combination of SA-fusion, networking and stealth-Enabled access. The weapons will come and Typhoon will take the mantle of GR4 weapons to mitigate your perceived 'gap'. Meanwhile, a whole host of excellent weapons will trickle down the F-35 pipeline for the next 4-5 decades.

So, yeah, a lot for the money UK has vested.
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Old 7th Feb 2017, 21:14
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Originally Posted by Brat
F-35 results for the latest Red Flag seem to indicate that the F-35/F-22 package are producing some impressive kill rates.

F-35 Scores Impressive 15:1 Kill Ratio at Red Flag War Games
After listening to the Q&A Youtube, I would say that win:loss ratios are not the major lesson to be culled from the exercise, but crew training and familiarity with the tactics and techniques of employment and integration of the new weapon systems.

Don't mean to dispute the headline directly but rather to focus on the true benefit of the activity. Contractor red air, a handful of F-16's and simulated EW/AD as aggressors are certainly a challenge, but not equivalent to the most advanced of our real world opponents. My hope is that numerous exercises such as Red Flag will make us and our allies ready for whatever comes.
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Old 8th Feb 2017, 04:25
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...crew training and familiarity with the tactics and techniques of employment and integration of the new weapon systems.
Indeed... the purpose of Red Flag.

The headline perhaps just an indication of the jump in effectiveness achieved by this much criticised weapon system?
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Old 9th Feb 2017, 08:45
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This is all greek to me.... 08 Feb 2017
""Greece is taking the first steps toward upgrading its existing F-16 fighter jets and purchasing, in due time, fifth-generation F-35 fighters.... inform the US government of the Greek interest in buying F-35s.... Greece will have to send another letter of request confirming how many of the Lockheed Martin aircraft Athens wants to buy."
New additions and upgrade for Greek air force fleet | News | ekathimerini.com
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Old 9th Feb 2017, 10:58
  #10186 (permalink)  
 
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The wrangling continues:-
F-35 cost target impossible without block buy, Lockheed says
(Flight Global 9th Feb)
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Old 10th Feb 2017, 07:29
  #10187 (permalink)  
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Excellent article. Nit a hatchet job or hagiography of the F-35, just putting the Red Flag reports into perspective.

Let's Talk About Those F-35 Kill Ratio Reports From Red Flag - The Drive
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Old 10th Feb 2017, 13:31
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F35

[QUOTE=MSOCS;9668413]A 5th Gen Carrier aircraft for ~£98M per jet with growth for the next 40 years
Access and design input via Level 1 partnership
A jet with capability and upgrades which the UK could never afford on its own
Jobs for some 500 UK companies involved in manufacture
A projected return on investment of £2-3 for each £1 we put in (depends on total production run through-life) - 15% UK workshare in every ac off the line.

So, quite a lot actually. And that's without stating the mind-blowing combination of SA-fusion, networking and stealth-Enabled access. The weapons will come and Typhoon will take the mantle of GR4 weapons to mitigate your perceived 'gap'. Meanwhile, a whole host of excellent weapons will trickle down the F-35 pipeline for the next 4-5 decades.

So, yeah, a lot for the money UK has vested.[/QUOTE
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Old 10th Feb 2017, 13:51
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F35

Some very impressive statements about F35 which I hope prove to be correct. I am not sure about the price. I have never seen it quoted at £98M for the B version and even if it is correct you must know that this figure would not included the engine or lift fan. You mention that typhoon will take over the GR4 role which I understand. However what role will the F35 carry out. Remember it wasn't designed to be a fighter and the US are already operating it with the F22.I do understand that the UK on its own would not have been able to afford an aircraft like F35. My point though is that the only real justification for buying F35 seems to be to operate it from the new carriers and it is quite true to say that we have managed to carry out air ops in against Libya and now iraq/Syria without the massively expensive aircraft carrier. F35 may give us a short term advantage but there are so many limitat ions range, payload, speed and manoeuvrability that to me ought weigh the massive cost of procurement and operation.
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Old 10th Feb 2017, 14:53
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Against jihaddists, AC-130 is the best. If anybody is thinking of attacking/invading Russia (or China), then all those childish calculations/pseudo_simulations with results like 1:15 should be forgotten.
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Old 10th Feb 2017, 16:45
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Buster, take a look at this link for latest prices. Top line: F-35B $122.8M a copy including engine/lift fan. So, at current exchange rate it's ~£100M a copy mark. I expect it to drop again in successive LRIPs, broadly in line with the cost curve in an earlier but fairly recent post.

LRIP-10 F-35 cost: Lockheed Martin says Trump helped get lowest prices - Business Insider

F-35 roles include: SEAD/DEAD, Strike (AI, Attack), OCA/DCA, CAS. In many cases swing-role (it is amazingly optimised for switching roles quickly) however you are right in saying it is primarily a self-escort bomber, however I'll add that its A-A is extremely potent. Where it lacks over F-22 (other than 2 engines and TV) is internal missile carriage. This has been debated here many, many times. F-22 ran at around $180M a copy. Now that's expensive.

There is no other aircraft built that has the fused sensor SA and stealth combination of F-35. For the money, it's a lucrative prospect for U.K., which is why time and again the Government has supported the operational analysis for buying the F-35B. It presents the best, most flexible variant which meets the carrier configuration. Look at the NAO audit on the B to C to B debacle to see what changing to Cat/Trap would have cost. Again, another mired discussion also presented on here many times.

I fear we'll never agree, but it's of no consequence as the facts will argue themselves.

Last edited by MSOCS; 10th Feb 2017 at 16:51. Reason: Spelling
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Old 10th Feb 2017, 18:54
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F35

Thanks for the link to the latest price data and as I mentioned I hope that F35 turns out well. Regarding un escorted bomber I read that the USA are planning to operate it with F18 growler. So F35 operating with F22 and Growler....Both aircraft which we do not have. I do admire your passion for this project and we will let the facts answer for themselves as you rightly say.
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Old 11th Feb 2017, 00:46
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Excellent article. Nit a hatchet job or hagiography of the F-35, just putting the Red Flag reports into perspective.
Certainly did. And ended with...

...the F-22 had proved that 4th generation fighters are no match for 5th generation ones over a decade ago, and has done so time and time again since.
Which one might take as... stop dicking around with talking about getting re-vamped 4th gen Hornets that are presently vapourware, and just get on with some 5th Gen F-35’s that are here, now, and being bought by various allies that will enable much closer co-operation co-rdination between various Air Forces than has ever been possible before.

Look forward.
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Old 11th Feb 2017, 01:06
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One other point to remember the F-35 is a multi-role aircraft/weapon system that has been specifically designed to do various jobs/and replace/ a number of specialised aircraft presently doing those roles.

An economy many critics fail to factor in.
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Old 11th Feb 2017, 08:36
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Trouble is it may not actually be bought in enough numbers to replace all those platforms due to cost and it may not be as good as some of the ones it replaces..............

And on the day you need it it may be needed for the other roles as well
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Old 11th Feb 2017, 23:33
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And on the day you need it it may be needed for the other roles as well
Errrr...yes. Well with the economy of scale you will of course not be buying one to replace three.

This however appears not to have been self evident...to you.

Expectations are a fine thing. Miracles another.
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Old 12th Feb 2017, 05:30
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Well with the economy of scale you will of course not be buying one to replace three.

IMHO, that's correct. But it looks like at the time of decision making antagonists of Frederick Lancester (and those who claimed his laws should be at least re-examined and significantly revised) outplayed the protagonists
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Old 13th Feb 2017, 12:08
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Some war stories from Red Flag with more tomorrow:

At Red Flag ‘It’s Tough To Be Legacy Aircraft In An LO World’

At Red Flag ?It?s Tough To Be Legacy Aircraft In An LO World? « Breaking Defense - Defense industry news, analysis and commentary
___________________________________________

More quotable quotes:

F-35A stealth brings flexibility to battlespace 13 Feb 2017

http://www.af.mil/News/ArticleDispla...ttlespace.aspx

Last edited by SpazSinbad; 13th Feb 2017 at 16:24. Reason: add xtra URL
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Old 14th Feb 2017, 06:23
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US Air Force: Removal of F-35 pilot weight restrictions eyed for April
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Old 14th Feb 2017, 07:00
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SpazSinbad,

All this Red Flag stuff is indeed a good LVC training exercise. Complex tasks, real stress to pilots and so on, as in any live training.
However, measuring effectiveness (1:15, 1:100, etc) here is a miss by a mile.
One should not only have accurate models and sims of the adversary planes, SAMs, radars (all kinds), EW aircraft, but also C4I. Would be interesting to see their validation report concerning that matter :-)
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