War with Russia next?
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Smudger is right.
We've been involved in the Iraq and Afghanistan bollocks, locations not exactly close to us, hundreds of thousands dead, billions spent, soldiers lied to and used. I wonder if Putin will give 2 fu@ks when Scotland annexes itself???
We've been involved in the Iraq and Afghanistan bollocks, locations not exactly close to us, hundreds of thousands dead, billions spent, soldiers lied to and used. I wonder if Putin will give 2 fu@ks when Scotland annexes itself???
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Putin will do what he considers in the best interests of Russia and international opinion or previous western interventions (ie Iraq) are of no consequence. I did a tour as a Military Observer on the ceasefire line in Georgia following the Russian invasion in 2008, followed by a stint in a senior staff appointment in the UN mission's HQ dealing with the Russian occupation forces and civilian officials on a daily basis. The current situation doesn't surprise me in any way, forward action in order to defend her strategic interests is currently seen by the Russian government hierarchy as a legitimate tool. A deliberate policy of issuing "Ethnic Russians" (no such thing, being Russian is an issue of nationality not ethnicity) with Russian Federation passports enables the Kremlin to undertake "protective action" - as in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The reality is that Russia could almost certainly achieve a great deal though economic action but, as with many immature/incomplete democracies, military shows of strength go down well with political strongmen. My prediction (for what it is worth): The UNSC will remain hamstrung. There will be a continuation of the current limited Russian military intervention, followed by a larger deployment in order to "protect" Russian citizens resident in Crimea as well as to secure the hinterland supporting the Black Sea Fleet. Lots of condemnation from the West but little (if any) concrete action. The Russians have de facto annexed two provinces of Georgia; a country with a pro-western European world view and which has been a willing military ally in both Iraq and Afghanistan. If we are able to do sweet FA in their case, why do we think Ukraine and Crimea in particular will be any different?
The reality is that Russia could almost certainly achieve a great deal though economic action but, as with many immature/incomplete democracies, military shows of strength go down well with political strongmen. My prediction (for what it is worth): The UNSC will remain hamstrung. There will be a continuation of the current limited Russian military intervention, followed by a larger deployment in order to "protect" Russian citizens resident in Crimea as well as to secure the hinterland supporting the Black Sea Fleet. Lots of condemnation from the West but little (if any) concrete action. The Russians have de facto annexed two provinces of Georgia; a country with a pro-western European world view and which has been a willing military ally in both Iraq and Afghanistan. If we are able to do sweet FA in their case, why do we think Ukraine and Crimea in particular will be any different?
Last edited by Mahogany_Bomber; 1st Mar 2014 at 22:51.
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UNSC, EU, NATO to hold urgent meetings over Ukraine
Specifically, they have invoked Article 4, which states
Since, as has been noted, Ukraine is not a member of NATO, then Latvia & Lithuania seem to be referring to themselves as "the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened".
Saturday, March 01, 2014
Meanwhile, Lithuania and Latvia called upon the North Atlantic Council, the decision-making body of NATO, to hold an extraordinary session on Ukraine, citing security concerns.
Meanwhile, Lithuania and Latvia called upon the North Atlantic Council, the decision-making body of NATO, to hold an extraordinary session on Ukraine, citing security concerns.
Specifically, they have invoked Article 4, which states
Article 4
The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.
The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.
Since, as has been noted, Ukraine is not a member of NATO, then Latvia & Lithuania seem to be referring to themselves as "the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened".
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Ukrainian Navy flagship takes Russia’s side
http://rt.com/news/ukraine-navy-flaghsip-protest-389/
http://rt.com/news/ukraine-navy-flaghsip-protest-389/
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Utterly incompetent leadership from the West.
Said it. I've got more sympathy with Russia than the Ukraine. Our own sides goading and belittling and taunting attitude of Russia over the last 20 years now looks very stupid.
Someone said shades of 1914 what with the level of competency displayed on our side.
I'll be emailing my MP and telling him he doesn't speak for me if he advocates any sort of retaliation or action against Russia. (Sort of worked last time over Syria debacle).
At least glad the British public aren't over-reacting.
Someone said shades of 1914 what with the level of competency displayed on our side.
I'll be emailing my MP and telling him he doesn't speak for me if he advocates any sort of retaliation or action against Russia. (Sort of worked last time over Syria debacle).
At least glad the British public aren't over-reacting.
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At least glad the British public aren't over-reacting.
Underwhelmed, war weary, cuts-weary and utterly mis-trusting of politicians would sum up the general feeling....
Doing a bit of inter thread linkage-that's to say this one and another a few steps down the page in the Military segment about the strength (!) of the RAF it would seem we would be incapable of making even the smallest dent on the Russians without launching the submarine based nukes,
I think the time has come for us to send a clear message to politicians that Britain's 'place on the world stage' is now in the wings at best and backstage at the most realistic. We cannot possible have a situation where we have poor hospitals, poor roads , poor education, poor public transport , and above all a lot of poor people is we magically have the money to get involved in another daft venture.
I don't pretend to any deep understanding of whats happening in Ukraine but I do know that along with the students and liberals the western Ukraine produced some very unsavoury characters in WW2 (think Werhmact and SS Einstazgruppen) and while we might dismiss Russian rhetoric about fascist elements as just rhetoric thereprobably is some truth to it.
Hopefully a Czech-Slovak type deal can be worked out which would probably be better for both parties in the current Ukraine
I think the time has come for us to send a clear message to politicians that Britain's 'place on the world stage' is now in the wings at best and backstage at the most realistic. We cannot possible have a situation where we have poor hospitals, poor roads , poor education, poor public transport , and above all a lot of poor people is we magically have the money to get involved in another daft venture.
I don't pretend to any deep understanding of whats happening in Ukraine but I do know that along with the students and liberals the western Ukraine produced some very unsavoury characters in WW2 (think Werhmact and SS Einstazgruppen) and while we might dismiss Russian rhetoric about fascist elements as just rhetoric thereprobably is some truth to it.
Hopefully a Czech-Slovak type deal can be worked out which would probably be better for both parties in the current Ukraine
Russian politics is a tough business, Putin is the toughest of the bunch. He understands the limits of Western Power and its weaknesses. He will do just as he pleases and there is nothing the Western Powers can do that will stop him without bringing a terrible cost to their prestige....what there is left.
When you are known to be weak and vulnerable....and are....this is the kind of thing that happens.
US Military power has gone from one of being able to fight Two War's simultaneously.....to being unable to fight one by itself. That is a fact....and publicly admitted.
When the US Army announces it has exactly two Combat Ready Brigades....you think the Russians are not aware of that fact?
Military action from the USA is not a risk.
The UK Military is more a Home Guard these days and certainly not an Expeditionary Force anymore.
Economic Sanctions are not a risk....what happens if Russia cuts off the supply of Gas to Europe in retaliation for any Sanctions taken against them? The UK and European Economies cannot sustain any real harm for a number of reasons....and the US Economy surely cannot.
The only avenue left is the UN....and who sits on the Security Council with Veto Power?
As I see it....the only thing left is Public Hand Wringing... and lots of talk.
That is something the Welfare Man is very good at.
When you are known to be weak and vulnerable....and are....this is the kind of thing that happens.
US Military power has gone from one of being able to fight Two War's simultaneously.....to being unable to fight one by itself. That is a fact....and publicly admitted.
When the US Army announces it has exactly two Combat Ready Brigades....you think the Russians are not aware of that fact?
Military action from the USA is not a risk.
The UK Military is more a Home Guard these days and certainly not an Expeditionary Force anymore.
Economic Sanctions are not a risk....what happens if Russia cuts off the supply of Gas to Europe in retaliation for any Sanctions taken against them? The UK and European Economies cannot sustain any real harm for a number of reasons....and the US Economy surely cannot.
The only avenue left is the UN....and who sits on the Security Council with Veto Power?
As I see it....the only thing left is Public Hand Wringing... and lots of talk.
That is something the Welfare Man is very good at.
Lots of people seeing 'wood', very few seeing 'trees'.
Energy is the mainstay of the Russian economy - and without the revenues from the oil and gas, they will be queuing for potatoes again pretty quick.
Oil prices below $117 a barrel start to interfere with the Russian economy and below $60 a barrel Putin is effectively toast [no standing back for a caretaker president for a few years in this case].
As an aside, Russia has a good energy deal going with Syria - exchanging Syrian crude for refined Russian petrochemicals at a favourable rate..... still I am sure that's completely unconnected to the veto against action on Syria.
Not only is he humiliating a politically and militarily impotent West, but causing a spike in oil prices. The last thing he wants is a war - but a prolonged stand off and heightened tensions suit his purposes perfectly.
The best course of action would be to let him have Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea; the majority want to be Russian anyway. Take away his oxygen and let the oil price flatline is far more damaging to Russia than sanctions or hollow threats.
Energy is the mainstay of the Russian economy - and without the revenues from the oil and gas, they will be queuing for potatoes again pretty quick.
Oil prices below $117 a barrel start to interfere with the Russian economy and below $60 a barrel Putin is effectively toast [no standing back for a caretaker president for a few years in this case].
As an aside, Russia has a good energy deal going with Syria - exchanging Syrian crude for refined Russian petrochemicals at a favourable rate..... still I am sure that's completely unconnected to the veto against action on Syria.
Not only is he humiliating a politically and militarily impotent West, but causing a spike in oil prices. The last thing he wants is a war - but a prolonged stand off and heightened tensions suit his purposes perfectly.
The best course of action would be to let him have Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea; the majority want to be Russian anyway. Take away his oxygen and let the oil price flatline is far more damaging to Russia than sanctions or hollow threats.
The best course of action would be to let him have Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea; the majority want to be Russian anyway
A week later, some international relations expert will publish a detailed article on the ethnic background of Crimea. By then no-one will care.
You could also be very, very wary about getting involved in areas we have no particular ties to, have little understanding of, and have no resources or appetite for......................
As I have said before, where does Putin stop, based on his justification for intervention in Ukraine? What about the (large) minority Russian-speaking populations in the three Baltic States, who, coincidentally, have been granted Russian passports by a generous Federation Government? What about the rest of Georgia? Eastern Poland, perchance?
I've got open in front of me the 1895 Times Atlas of the World. My, how big 'European Russia' was. Include Finland in that, along with Galicia, big chunks of Romania and Georgia. And Belorussia, which remains a client state.
Shall we add property holdings in London to that list?
I had a discussion over lunch with someone comparing it with, say, a theoretical intervention in the Irish Republic if British nationals were being targeted. We (the UK) would get pretty upset if Russia stormed in there to sort it out, feeling (as with Grenada in 1983) that this was a 'British' problem. The difference with this solipsism is that Ukraine (and Eire) are sovereign states, and Russia has now trampled over Wesphalian principals and the 1994 Memorandum (which has treaty status in international law). Moreover, for those who compare Western intervention in the Balkans and elsewhere is that this is not customary practise - that is, most states, irrespective of what is happening to their neighbours, do not intervene. This is nothing more than well-scripted expansionism.
But RF is vulnerable - as posted above it has a weak economy buoyed up on one commodity. It has a shrinking population that is actually drinking itself to death and the nomenklatura fear Chinese expansion in economic, influence and military spheres. So what if Putin hikes the price of gas and oil up or restricts supplies? We are entering Spring and there has been a lot of work over the last 10 years to increase supply resilience in Western Europe and if OPEC could be persuaded to flood the market (think Saudi Arabia), the Russian economy - which benefits from no inward investment (who would invest in Russia? None of the Oligarchs do...) - would collapse pretty quickly. Interestingly, this is the opinion of a former HMA to Moscow, whom I've just seen interviewed on BBC.
And all this nonsense of elite troops. Remember the elite Republican Guard? Utter bilge.*
*Edited to add that double-digit SAM systems are a wee bit problematic, though.
I've got open in front of me the 1895 Times Atlas of the World. My, how big 'European Russia' was. Include Finland in that, along with Galicia, big chunks of Romania and Georgia. And Belorussia, which remains a client state.
Shall we add property holdings in London to that list?
I had a discussion over lunch with someone comparing it with, say, a theoretical intervention in the Irish Republic if British nationals were being targeted. We (the UK) would get pretty upset if Russia stormed in there to sort it out, feeling (as with Grenada in 1983) that this was a 'British' problem. The difference with this solipsism is that Ukraine (and Eire) are sovereign states, and Russia has now trampled over Wesphalian principals and the 1994 Memorandum (which has treaty status in international law). Moreover, for those who compare Western intervention in the Balkans and elsewhere is that this is not customary practise - that is, most states, irrespective of what is happening to their neighbours, do not intervene. This is nothing more than well-scripted expansionism.
But RF is vulnerable - as posted above it has a weak economy buoyed up on one commodity. It has a shrinking population that is actually drinking itself to death and the nomenklatura fear Chinese expansion in economic, influence and military spheres. So what if Putin hikes the price of gas and oil up or restricts supplies? We are entering Spring and there has been a lot of work over the last 10 years to increase supply resilience in Western Europe and if OPEC could be persuaded to flood the market (think Saudi Arabia), the Russian economy - which benefits from no inward investment (who would invest in Russia? None of the Oligarchs do...) - would collapse pretty quickly. Interestingly, this is the opinion of a former HMA to Moscow, whom I've just seen interviewed on BBC.
And all this nonsense of elite troops. Remember the elite Republican Guard? Utter bilge.*
*Edited to add that double-digit SAM systems are a wee bit problematic, though.
let the oil price flatline is far more damaging to Russia than sanctions or hollow threats.
Our Welfare Man has done everything he can to inflate US Fuel Prices, refusing the Keystone Pipeline, cutting or denying Drilling Permits on all Federal Lands, invoking Global Warming as an excuse and turning the EPA loose to target Oil, Gas, and Coal....ignoring the lack of any new Refinery construction and refusing to embrace any move towards Energy Independence for the USA.
How does Europe refuse to buy Russian Oil and Gas?
Demand drives Prices....along with the Value of the Dollar for us in the USA.
Europe does not have the benefit of buying Oil with US Dollars....so y'all really are between the Rock and a Hard Place in that regard.
Notice the very small bumps due world tensions until the Iran/Iraq War...which affected Saudi and other Gulf States supply of oil to the World....then the next huge bump was when OPEC cut the supply......and what happens if Russia cuts back on its supply to Europe....at some point increased price offsets reduced output so it is a no cost move to the Russians.
The largest bumps are generated by Lack of Capacity/Production and sustained demand.....not War or threat of War alone.
Don't you think Putin and his Advisors have a Graph that shows that relationship somewhere to use in their deciding their course of action?