Syria starts
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Racedo I agree. And I was not advocating doing nothing. What I suggested was that unless we understood the motive, we can't plan, and with duplicity, it makes it that little bit tougher
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So, Russian arms going to Syria. Russian fleet in the Eastern Med with a base in Syria. Iran offering military support to Syria. Turkey and others threatening a "no fly zone" over Syria.
What happens when Iran ups its offer and sends troops into Syria (through Iraq) as "peacekeepers" and extends its air patrols over Syria?
No-one in Iraq to stop them, and the northern Iraqi population is Shia and sympathetic to Iran anyway - so no problems for Iran in making the transit.
Longer term, if Iran can't export oil via the Gulf / Red Sea / Suez due to European sanctions, a new Russian built pipeline across Iraq and Syria to the Med can't be too difficult given their experience with the pipelines around the Caspian
What happens when Iran ups its offer and sends troops into Syria (through Iraq) as "peacekeepers" and extends its air patrols over Syria?
No-one in Iraq to stop them, and the northern Iraqi population is Shia and sympathetic to Iran anyway - so no problems for Iran in making the transit.
Longer term, if Iran can't export oil via the Gulf / Red Sea / Suez due to European sanctions, a new Russian built pipeline across Iraq and Syria to the Med can't be too difficult given their experience with the pipelines around the Caspian
The road to hell is paved with good intentions
SAMXXV,
OK, time to cut to the chase. SAMXXV, you are either a 9 year old or you need help.
OK, time to cut to the chase. SAMXXV, you are either a 9 year old or you need help.
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SAM
If Iran and Russia offer a military "peace keeping" support presence to Syria, including AA missiles and aircraft, do you think any Nato / Western force is going to try that corridor?
The Russians would not be seen as the aggressors.
If Iran and Russia offer a military "peace keeping" support presence to Syria, including AA missiles and aircraft, do you think any Nato / Western force is going to try that corridor?
The Russians would not be seen as the aggressors.
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Originally Posted by SAMXXV
Iraq is an enormous country with a direct transit airspace from the Med to Iran
Also, I cannot agree with your rather sweeping statement; there are plenty of perfectly good Saudi aircrew.
M2
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Re-supply for the Russian ships allready there?
Russia might be sending a message to the west when it allowed senior Russian political figures along with the Battle Group Commander to be pictured in a relaxed manner with representatives of the Syrian Regime? (question)
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Torygraph: Syria: growing Arab calls for military intervention as Assad announces amnesty
A powerful joint Arab front for military intervention in Syria was being formed on Sunday night, as the Assad regime desperately fought to stave off calls for action.
President Bashar al-Assad announced a general amnesty for crimes committed since the start of the uprising against his rule last March, saying offenders had until the end of January to turn themselves in. But two previous amnesty offers had little effect, only spurring on the revolutionaries, who have since seized control of parts of major cities. Mr Assad's attempts to mix such offers with a tough line on continued resistance, which he pledged in a keynote speech last week, suggest he is floundering in the face of a continued build-up of outside forces against him.
Brigadier-General Mustafa Ahmed al-Sheikh, the most senior of his officers to defect, was in talks on Sunday with the Free Syrian Army and the Syrian National Council prior to announcing a new Syrian Military Council to coordinate armed resistance. "He is working now to build this council and will make an announcement tonight or tomorrow," his spokesman told The Daily Telegraph last night. The military council could be used as a front for intervention either by the Arab League as a whole, which will receive a report from its observers' mission on Thursday, or by individual members.
Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, the Emir of Qatar, which led the Arab involvement in the Libyan conflict, said he now favoured sending troops "to stop the killing", the first Arab leader to say so publicly. He won support from the former head of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, who said: "The Arab League should begin to study this possibility and begin consultations on this issue." Mr Moussa's words have added weight as he is currently a candidate, and favourite, in Egypt's presidential elections due later this year.
Such calls for military intervention in an internal Arab conflict would have been unthinkable until a year ago. But by sending a monitoring mission to Syria, and seeing it publicly mocked by Mr Assad in his speech last week, the Arab League has been forced into a position where it has to take action or lose whatever credibility it has on the world stage. The United Nations estimated that 400 people were killed in the first ten days of the monitoring mission, while at least one of the monitors walked out in protest at what he said was "people being killed, beaten up, and arrested by police, soldiers and militiamen" in front of them.
The Emir's proposal will meet fierce resistance, but his prime minister, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani, heads the committee overseeing the mission's work and will be backing a forceful position when it meets on Saturday prior to a full foreign ministers' meeting the next day.
Any military intervention will most likely take the form of a buffer zone or humanitarian corridor linking rebel-held areas in cities like Homs which have come under government attack. But that would provide a safe haven for the Free Syrian Army, who could now have a figurehead in Gen Sheikh, a ground forces commander in northern Syria before he defected last month. He estimates that 20,000 troops have changed sides, as against an army of some 280,000, indicating that, as in Libya, outside help would be needed to balance the forces. On the other hand, opposition to Mr Assad is diffused across the country, suggesting a long-drawn out civil war is in any case the most likely outcome...................
A powerful joint Arab front for military intervention in Syria was being formed on Sunday night, as the Assad regime desperately fought to stave off calls for action.
President Bashar al-Assad announced a general amnesty for crimes committed since the start of the uprising against his rule last March, saying offenders had until the end of January to turn themselves in. But two previous amnesty offers had little effect, only spurring on the revolutionaries, who have since seized control of parts of major cities. Mr Assad's attempts to mix such offers with a tough line on continued resistance, which he pledged in a keynote speech last week, suggest he is floundering in the face of a continued build-up of outside forces against him.
Brigadier-General Mustafa Ahmed al-Sheikh, the most senior of his officers to defect, was in talks on Sunday with the Free Syrian Army and the Syrian National Council prior to announcing a new Syrian Military Council to coordinate armed resistance. "He is working now to build this council and will make an announcement tonight or tomorrow," his spokesman told The Daily Telegraph last night. The military council could be used as a front for intervention either by the Arab League as a whole, which will receive a report from its observers' mission on Thursday, or by individual members.
Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, the Emir of Qatar, which led the Arab involvement in the Libyan conflict, said he now favoured sending troops "to stop the killing", the first Arab leader to say so publicly. He won support from the former head of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, who said: "The Arab League should begin to study this possibility and begin consultations on this issue." Mr Moussa's words have added weight as he is currently a candidate, and favourite, in Egypt's presidential elections due later this year.
Such calls for military intervention in an internal Arab conflict would have been unthinkable until a year ago. But by sending a monitoring mission to Syria, and seeing it publicly mocked by Mr Assad in his speech last week, the Arab League has been forced into a position where it has to take action or lose whatever credibility it has on the world stage. The United Nations estimated that 400 people were killed in the first ten days of the monitoring mission, while at least one of the monitors walked out in protest at what he said was "people being killed, beaten up, and arrested by police, soldiers and militiamen" in front of them.
The Emir's proposal will meet fierce resistance, but his prime minister, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani, heads the committee overseeing the mission's work and will be backing a forceful position when it meets on Saturday prior to a full foreign ministers' meeting the next day.
Any military intervention will most likely take the form of a buffer zone or humanitarian corridor linking rebel-held areas in cities like Homs which have come under government attack. But that would provide a safe haven for the Free Syrian Army, who could now have a figurehead in Gen Sheikh, a ground forces commander in northern Syria before he defected last month. He estimates that 20,000 troops have changed sides, as against an army of some 280,000, indicating that, as in Libya, outside help would be needed to balance the forces. On the other hand, opposition to Mr Assad is diffused across the country, suggesting a long-drawn out civil war is in any case the most likely outcome...................
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
DefenseNews: U.S. Drones Monitor Events in Syria: Report
WASHINGTON — A “good number” of unmanned U.S. military and intelligence drones are operating in the skies over Syria, monitoring the Syrian military’s attacks against opposition forces and civilians, NBC News reported.
Citing unnamed U.S. defense officials, the TV network said this surveillance was not in preparation for U.S. military intervention. However, the administration of President Barack Obama hopes to use the overhead visual evidence and intercepts of Syrian government and military communications in an effort to make the case for a widespread international response, the report said.
NBC News said there has been some discussion among White House, State Department and Pentagon officials about possible humanitarian missions in Syria. But U.S. officials fear those missions could not be carried out without endangering the people involved and would almost certainly draw the United States into a military role in Syria, the report noted..................
WASHINGTON — A “good number” of unmanned U.S. military and intelligence drones are operating in the skies over Syria, monitoring the Syrian military’s attacks against opposition forces and civilians, NBC News reported.
Citing unnamed U.S. defense officials, the TV network said this surveillance was not in preparation for U.S. military intervention. However, the administration of President Barack Obama hopes to use the overhead visual evidence and intercepts of Syrian government and military communications in an effort to make the case for a widespread international response, the report said.
NBC News said there has been some discussion among White House, State Department and Pentagon officials about possible humanitarian missions in Syria. But U.S. officials fear those missions could not be carried out without endangering the people involved and would almost certainly draw the United States into a military role in Syria, the report noted..................
If what the defense news article reports is true, we have a major OPSEC violation in the form of what appears to be an authorized leak.
Part of the value of those unmanned drones is that many of them are hard to detect.
FFS, can the people in Washington ever remember to keep their fool mouths shut about anything?
Part of the value of those unmanned drones is that many of them are hard to detect.
FFS, can the people in Washington ever remember to keep their fool mouths shut about anything?
Iranian navy ships return from Syria through Suez
CAIRO | Tue Feb 21, 2012 5:47am EST
(Reuters) - Two Iranian naval ships returned from Syria through the Suez Canal Tuesday, a Suez Canal source said.
The ships entered the canal from the Mediterranean Sea early in the morning, heading south toward the Red Sea, and were expected to leave the canal Tuesday afternoon, the source said.
The ships had docked at the Syrian port of Tartous, in a show of support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a regional ally of Iran.
CAIRO | Tue Feb 21, 2012 5:47am EST
(Reuters) - Two Iranian naval ships returned from Syria through the Suez Canal Tuesday, a Suez Canal source said.
The ships entered the canal from the Mediterranean Sea early in the morning, heading south toward the Red Sea, and were expected to leave the canal Tuesday afternoon, the source said.
The ships had docked at the Syrian port of Tartous, in a show of support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a regional ally of Iran.
Iranian navy ships return from Syria through Suez | Reuters