New Falklands War Brewing
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Torquay, England
Posts: 838
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Totally agree about Entebbe and this was no doubt considered during the planning. I was judging it on the 'whole' as opposed to just the freeing of the hostages. Distances, refuelling, foreign airspaces... An amazing operation which I feel deserves the recognition 
It would be easy, peezy to say, 'We could have done that!'
Talk has always been easier than deeds and the risks surrounding that operation were formidiable and I am not just talking about the risks involved in the actual combat side of that operation.
It would be easy, peezy to say, 'We could have done that!'Talk has always been easier than deeds and the risks surrounding that operation were formidiable and I am not just talking about the risks involved in the actual combat side of that operation.
again, its worth thinking about what a success looks like from the Argentine side, rather than thinking about it from our side.
for Argentina a success is any confrontation which trumpets British military supremacy and persuades/coerces other LatAm states (regardless of how they feel privately) to show public support for Argentinas claim, and to enact measures that make civil life in the FI harder, and our military garrison there more expensive.
Argentina knows that it is about as likely to be able to undertake a full invasion of the Islands, defeating the current garrison/assets, and to then successfully defend its new possession as it is to build a new Death Star - moreover, it knows that an initial military victory would lead to a political and then military defeat: the UK's political/diplomatic/economic clout means that an Argentine invasion creates harsh words at the UN, sanctions from the EU and NATO countries, and the release of the LatAm countries from the political support they are currently obliged to give to Argentina - a political claim is one thing, a military invasion is quite another... it also knows that even without the CVS/SHAR/GR9, and with Argentine A-4's and Super Etendards at MPA, the RN's T45's and TLAM/SSN combination could make life there very difficult for the invaders.
Argentina knows that the Isladers are the biggest hole in its attempts to gain the Islands, it has to remove their legitimacy or their desire to remain in the British fold - to do that it has to either get Islanders/their government to be seen as aggressors towards Argentine Civilians, or make life there so expensive that they either leave, or the UK decides to leave.
for Argentina a success is any confrontation which trumpets British military supremacy and persuades/coerces other LatAm states (regardless of how they feel privately) to show public support for Argentinas claim, and to enact measures that make civil life in the FI harder, and our military garrison there more expensive.
Argentina knows that it is about as likely to be able to undertake a full invasion of the Islands, defeating the current garrison/assets, and to then successfully defend its new possession as it is to build a new Death Star - moreover, it knows that an initial military victory would lead to a political and then military defeat: the UK's political/diplomatic/economic clout means that an Argentine invasion creates harsh words at the UN, sanctions from the EU and NATO countries, and the release of the LatAm countries from the political support they are currently obliged to give to Argentina - a political claim is one thing, a military invasion is quite another... it also knows that even without the CVS/SHAR/GR9, and with Argentine A-4's and Super Etendards at MPA, the RN's T45's and TLAM/SSN combination could make life there very difficult for the invaders.
Argentina knows that the Isladers are the biggest hole in its attempts to gain the Islands, it has to remove their legitimacy or their desire to remain in the British fold - to do that it has to either get Islanders/their government to be seen as aggressors towards Argentine Civilians, or make life there so expensive that they either leave, or the UK decides to leave.
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: 59°09N 002°38W (IATA: SOY, ICAO: EGER)
Age: 80
Posts: 812
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I note that the cruise ship companies roll over for the bullies.
Lovely bunch of cowards in management.
Gee, there's a shock.
Lovely bunch of cowards in management.
Gee, there's a shock.
Nemo Me Impune Lacessit
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Derbyshire, England.
Posts: 4,091
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
A major oil find right now would help, close enough for the oil to be piped to the islands for, at least, a storage station but preferably a refinery, should keep all the islanders happy, worked in the Shetlands.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Australia - South of where I'd like to be !
Age: 59
Posts: 4,261
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
With an announcement that a pipeline direct to Chile to a new processing
plant would be built !
That would get the Argies changing heart quick smart.
Economic Blackmail can work both ways !!!
plant would be built !
That would get the Argies changing heart quick smart.
Economic Blackmail can work both ways !!!
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: East Midlands
Age: 84
Posts: 1,511
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The version I read, in a tabloid, said that the cruise ship was detained/blockaded
in an Argentinian port and only released on condition that it is did not sail to the Falklands. However, the Telegraph reports British cruise ship tests Argentine blockade in Falklands - Telegraph
The detained ship is sailing to the Falklands
in an Argentinian port and only released on condition that it is did not sail to the Falklands. However, the Telegraph reports British cruise ship tests Argentine blockade in Falklands - Telegraph
The detained ship is sailing to the Falklands
Last year I was on a Norwegian ship which sailed from Ushuaia to Antarctica, then on to South Georgia and then the Falklands, subsequently sailing direct from there to Buenos Aires.
I must admit I did wonder what the Argentine authorities would make of my British passport with a stonking great Falkland Islands stamp in it but they couldn't have been more pleasant. All a bit odd, really, particularly given how all-pervasive the "malvinas" thing is there. Even the news programmes include the islands on the weather forecasts - can't imagine they have many viewers in Stanley!
I must admit I did wonder what the Argentine authorities would make of my British passport with a stonking great Falkland Islands stamp in it but they couldn't have been more pleasant. All a bit odd, really, particularly given how all-pervasive the "malvinas" thing is there. Even the news programmes include the islands on the weather forecasts - can't imagine they have many viewers in Stanley!
Last edited by Captivep; 14th Dec 2012 at 10:18. Reason: spelling
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Sussex
Posts: 76
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
... I was at a conference earlier this year and was introduced by a mutual US acquaintance to an Argentinian. I made a throw-away comment about whether we should be talking to each other and got, 'Oh, don't worry - we think our president's a rabble-rousing idiot as well.'
It's a bit like assuming every Iranian is a screaming zealot whose only aim is the West's downfall, I suppose.
It's a bit like assuming every Iranian is a screaming zealot whose only aim is the West's downfall, I suppose.
Last edited by ColdCollation; 14th Dec 2012 at 11:27.
Historically one of reasons behind the start of a "conflict" is to distract the home population from bad news, give them a single unifying point of focus, hopefully a welcome patriotic success, etc...
Indeed this is usually cited as the reason why the Junta embarked on the first Falklands conflict.
With that in mind, such news as:
BBC News - IMF data deadline looms for Argentina's fragile economy
Doesn't bode well, in terms of Argentinian leaders today perhaps once again looking for distractions/successes elsewhere.
Indeed this is usually cited as the reason why the Junta embarked on the first Falklands conflict.
With that in mind, such news as:
BBC News - IMF data deadline looms for Argentina's fragile economy
Doesn't bode well, in terms of Argentinian leaders today perhaps once again looking for distractions/successes elsewhere.
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: London
Posts: 7,072
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
"A major oil find right now would help, close enough for the oil to be piped to the islands for, at least, a storage station but preferably a refinery, should keep all the islanders happy, worked in the Shetlands."
Wake up, man!!
Rockhopper found 450 million barrels a year or so ago and have sold a major interest to Premier who are planning first oil in 2016/17 - but I don't think any will land in the Falklands and there is no refinery there either
The 3000 locals will be richer than the UAE
Wake up, man!!
Rockhopper found 450 million barrels a year or so ago and have sold a major interest to Premier who are planning first oil in 2016/17 - but I don't think any will land in the Falklands and there is no refinery there either
The 3000 locals will be richer than the UAE
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Westerham, Kent
Posts: 97
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The United States wanted to give Argentina advance warning that Britain was going to retake South Georgia in 1982 in a move that would have spelt disaster ahead of the Falklands campaign, according to newly released files
Time for Britain to battle on by herself (maybe with the aid of Canada and Australia) and (especially) to leave the EU!
US wanted to warn Argentina about South Georgia - Telegraph
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Sydney
Age: 45
Posts: 243
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The yanks can be a bit strange, most seem to like Britain but there is always a sprinkling of anglophobes around to cause trouble. Admiral King in the second world war being a prime example.
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: London
Posts: 7,072
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Churchills ghost wrote:-
"Time for Britain to battle on by herself (maybe with the aid of Canada and Australia) and (especially) to leave the EU!"
ahh the old Empire calls - whenever I mention this sort of thing to Australians or Canucks they look at me quite oddly and ask why the hell would they want to be allies with the UK at the expense of the yanks.......... what do we bring to the party in 2013??
"Time for Britain to battle on by herself (maybe with the aid of Canada and Australia) and (especially) to leave the EU!"
ahh the old Empire calls - whenever I mention this sort of thing to Australians or Canucks they look at me quite oddly and ask why the hell would they want to be allies with the UK at the expense of the yanks.......... what do we bring to the party in 2013??