EK - Time to command, for hopeful new joiners and us already in the crapper
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EK - Time to command, for hopeful new joiners and us already in the crapper
Are they still telling you in the road shows and interviews that time to command is 3.5 years, max? Well, itīs always good to do some fact checking which quickly busts that slightly optimistic statement.
Fact: If you join today on the 777 there are about 1000 F/Os ahead of you waiting to move over to the left seat. For the 380 the number is about 400.
EK Statement: HR is working on a plan of 200 upgrades/year (unclear if only 777 or all fleets)
Fact: Current financial year approx 35 upgrades were made on the 777 (from recent meeting with management)
You do the math....
Fact: If you join today on the 777 there are about 1000 F/Os ahead of you waiting to move over to the left seat. For the 380 the number is about 400.
EK Statement: HR is working on a plan of 200 upgrades/year (unclear if only 777 or all fleets)
Fact: Current financial year approx 35 upgrades were made on the 777 (from recent meeting with management)
You do the math....
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I heard 200 upgrades total next financial year (Apr 2014-Apr2015). 50 on the 777 and the rest on the Airbus side. Long long time to upgrade for a new joiner. I'm guessing 10 years. Anybody have better info?
Factor in attrition- 3.5% doesn't sound much, but it's close enough to 100 pilots a year, and the fact that additional ULR routes require a lot of manpower (it's about 50 pilots each).
New joiners are being told around 6 years
New joiners are being told around 6 years
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Yeah, attrition is a factor of course, but the current rate is about 2.5% and of course higher among captains than the F/Os. So, attrition affects the time to command but not so much how many are ahead of you.
Correct, latest non-DEC took about 3.5 years to upgrade. However, and this is a BIG thing, the number that was mentioned in my first post is acutally 1000+ and for a fact there has been close to 1000 new hires on the 777 after the latest F/O that upgraded. So, letīs say 100 upgrades/year on the 777 and yeah, close to 10 years I would say...
Correct, latest non-DEC took about 3.5 years to upgrade. However, and this is a BIG thing, the number that was mentioned in my first post is acutally 1000+ and for a fact there has been close to 1000 new hires on the 777 after the latest F/O that upgraded. So, letīs say 100 upgrades/year on the 777 and yeah, close to 10 years I would say...
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I joined over 6 years ago and am not expecting to upgrade until at least 7 and a half years have passed....possibly 8.it is all a matter of timing and luck here. Some of us feel really shafted, others seem to have been quite lucky in comparison. FWIW, around 14000 hours total time, nearly 7 years of wide body time and 10 years of previous command time, albeit under the magic 55 tonnes though. Think very carefully before signing the dotted line if time to command is a big factor for you. Am airbus here.
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What will happen to the a330 guys when they eventually jump across to the 380. Do they keep any seniority or is it to the back of the line? I assume there's no MSL to cater for this.
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There are no accelerated commands any longer. At the moment they 'may' skip a small handfull who do not have the TOTAL time for command but that is it.
The upgrades are at over 4 years right now (at least on the 777 they are--group in April are all over 4). If you are hired today (or in the last year) you need to see 8500 pilots at EK to upgrade (double the number today).
With attrition that mean at least 7 years. I'd guess longer.
The upgrades are at over 4 years right now (at least on the 777 they are--group in April are all over 4). If you are hired today (or in the last year) you need to see 8500 pilots at EK to upgrade (double the number today).
With attrition that mean at least 7 years. I'd guess longer.
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A new joiner now will have to plan on a minimum of 8 years before upgrading. Emirates has grown rapidly doubling the fleet every few years the upgrades have come thick and fast which was great for the people who joined at that time.
The upgrades you are seeing now on the 777 at the 4 year mark are as a result of that rapid growth. It's no use to look at the orders and think they are additional airframes the fact is the A330/340 fleet will be retired over the next 3 years along with the old 777-200 and 777-300 which means the gain of aircraft is going to be relatively small.
Emirates is not the airline if you are looking for a quick command....those days are gone. It's still a good option if you are young and single but a married guy with kids really needs to think long and hard with the way prices are moving.
The upgrades you are seeing now on the 777 at the 4 year mark are as a result of that rapid growth. It's no use to look at the orders and think they are additional airframes the fact is the A330/340 fleet will be retired over the next 3 years along with the old 777-200 and 777-300 which means the gain of aircraft is going to be relatively small.
Emirates is not the airline if you are looking for a quick command....those days are gone. It's still a good option if you are young and single but a married guy with kids really needs to think long and hard with the way prices are moving.
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Slight mistake. The list will need to hit 7200. Currently at ~ 3600. With the published plan between now and 2020, expect around 350ish upgrades. Anyone with a post 2011 DOH can expect at least 6 years from now to upgrade. New joiner today would be 12 plus years. I for one am happy for this. After 20 years in the lines with only a brief command prior to 9-11, I'm sick of babysitting cocky douchebags who sit left of me only because of their lucky timing. Plenty of briefing talking gods who couldn't hand fly their way out of quife.
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Things change all the time, and baring that in mind, crunch the following figures:
A short while ago it was stated in some company communication that there would be a net increase of 60 aircraft between now and 2020. If one divides the current number of pilots by the number of aircraft, and divide the result by two, the result will be the approximate number of captains required by 2020.
My numbers indicated approx 600. So, if one is not in the top 600, there will be no upgrade before 2020.
A short while ago it was stated in some company communication that there would be a net increase of 60 aircraft between now and 2020. If one divides the current number of pilots by the number of aircraft, and divide the result by two, the result will be the approximate number of captains required by 2020.
My numbers indicated approx 600. So, if one is not in the top 600, there will be no upgrade before 2020.
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Dusted off my crystal ball and it came up with this:
As far as the 330 goes, its anyone's guess. Depends on the 350 of which talk is limited to whispers at the moment.
As far as the 380 goes, there's 40 odd now, total slated at 115, with 1 coming every month unless airbus slows down. So commands are happening, with time to command on the way down in the short term (for those with the hours).. All of course completely dependent on the 30+ aircraft with of crews on the 330.
As far as the 777 goes.. As per the latest "Open Skies" magazine, 134 777's flying, 64ish 'ER's to come over the next 5 years plus the X's which have been nominated as replacement aircraft.
1100ish captains now, makes sense there'd be 1650 needed once all the ER's are here.
Allow for some attrition and if they don't order any more 777's, then the last guy getting a command on the 777 due to expansion in 2019 has the number 411xxx. And that guy will have been here 8 years.
Now factor in the 9 200's and 14 300's slated for retirement over the next couple of years and command-wise things start really looking grim if your number is 412xxx + and your on the 777..
As far as the 330 goes, its anyone's guess. Depends on the 350 of which talk is limited to whispers at the moment.
As far as the 380 goes, there's 40 odd now, total slated at 115, with 1 coming every month unless airbus slows down. So commands are happening, with time to command on the way down in the short term (for those with the hours).. All of course completely dependent on the 30+ aircraft with of crews on the 330.
As far as the 777 goes.. As per the latest "Open Skies" magazine, 134 777's flying, 64ish 'ER's to come over the next 5 years plus the X's which have been nominated as replacement aircraft.
1100ish captains now, makes sense there'd be 1650 needed once all the ER's are here.
Allow for some attrition and if they don't order any more 777's, then the last guy getting a command on the 777 due to expansion in 2019 has the number 411xxx. And that guy will have been here 8 years.
Now factor in the 9 200's and 14 300's slated for retirement over the next couple of years and command-wise things start really looking grim if your number is 412xxx + and your on the 777..
All the above assumptions would work if EK upgraded on next in line basis. History shows this is not the case. It is done by fleet.
Net 777 fleet growth is said to be between 30 and 40 from now until 2020 (It was reported as 160 but think that has grown because of the extra 77Fs. All classic 777s gone with first ER retired in 2017). There are 80 380s on the way in the same time frame, with remainder of the 330/340 to be retired. So about a 25% increase in the Boeing and bit of a doubling of the Bus fleet.
So the top 25 to 30% of 777 FOs will be upgraded by 2020, and all current Bus FOs will be upgraded. If/when the 350s arrives could tilt this a bit more.
Out of seniority commands will continue.
The Don
Net 777 fleet growth is said to be between 30 and 40 from now until 2020 (It was reported as 160 but think that has grown because of the extra 77Fs. All classic 777s gone with first ER retired in 2017). There are 80 380s on the way in the same time frame, with remainder of the 330/340 to be retired. So about a 25% increase in the Boeing and bit of a doubling of the Bus fleet.
So the top 25 to 30% of 777 FOs will be upgraded by 2020, and all current Bus FOs will be upgraded. If/when the 350s arrives could tilt this a bit more.
Out of seniority commands will continue.
The Don
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I can offer one upgrade slot for June 2015. I can go earlier if you make it worth my while or help me lose my medical this week. Something not too painful.
