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Old 30th Jul 2017, 15:05   #21 (permalink)
 
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Hempy, nice one!

Interesting trade figures:
Out of the Republic of Ireland's 15 top trading partners, 47.1% is trade with EU countries and 40.1% is with non-EU countries.
When Britain 'switches sides' those figures would then switch to 34.4% EU and 52.8% non-EU.
(The USA is by far Ireland's biggest trading partner at 25.9%.)

It will be interesting to see how that influences future Irish thinking!

There are many things that puts them apart from what will in future be 'the remainder of the EU': The side of the road that they drive on, their electricity plugs/sockets, their language (!), their time zone, to mention just a few. All of those they have in common with Britain. They will be the only country in the EU not to be in the Schengen common travel zone, but they will have their common travel agreement with Britain. Are they going to stay 'in love' with the EU that long? Especially as their 'subsidy-junky' position will be wearing thin. When they mismanaged their finances about a decade ago it was Britain who came to their help (https://www.theguardian.com/business...-seven-billion). The future could surprise some of those who are stuck rigidly in love with the EU.
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Old 30th Jul 2017, 15:28   #22 (permalink)
 
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Hempy, nice one!

Interesting trade figures:
Out of the Republic of Ireland's 15 top trading partners, 47.1% is trade with EU countries and 40.1% is with non-EU countries.
When Britain 'switches sides' those figures would then switch to 34.4% EU and 52.8% non-EU.
(The USA is by far Ireland's biggest trading partner at 25.9%.)

It will be interesting to see how that influences future Irish thinking!

There are many things that puts them apart from what will in future be 'the remainder of the EU': The side of the road that they drive on, their electricity plugs/sockets, their language (!), their time zone, to mention just a few. All of those they have in common with Britain. They will be the only country in the EU not to be in the Schengen common travel zone, but they will have their common travel agreement with Britain. Are they going to stay 'in love' with the EU that long? Especially as their 'subsidy-junky' position will be wearing thin. When they mismanaged their finances about a decade ago it was Britain who came to their help (https://www.theguardian.com/business...-seven-billion). The future could surprise some of those who are stuck rigidly in love with the EU.
Uk does quite well out of the money lent to Ireland as it is charging interest and was as much to back up UK business trading with Ireland as anything else.

Ireland want zero involvement of London interferring in the affairs, they had that for 800 years.

The view expressed by a historian was
We saw British benevolence at the time of the Famine, we had 8 Million people, UK had 15 Million. a decade later we had 4 million and the population of the Island had never yet again reached the figure it was in 1841. He showed me the data which showed that during the famine Ireland was required to export its crops to the Empire while the people in Ireland starved.

There is little sympathy for UK on Brexit.
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Old 31st Jul 2017, 11:26   #23 (permalink)
 
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They do have a different railway gauge to the rest of Europe, though. But not even the Commission would force a change of that.
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Old 31st Jul 2017, 17:18   #24 (permalink)
 
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5'3" gauge, which is only found elsewhere in parts of Australia. Fascinating description of the huge muddle which found Australia with a rail network consisting of three different gauges is found here*

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_gauge_in_Australia

* Only fascinating if you are a keen railway historian. Of no interest to those only interested in EU/Brexit politics
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Old 31st Jul 2017, 17:30   #25 (permalink)
 
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If you want to kill free movement of people and goods you need a hard border. It could be between the North and the South, or between the Irelands and Great Britain. Take your pick. Of course the current UK government couldn't achieve either with their current coalition.

It cannot work any onther way.
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Old 31st Jul 2017, 18:20   #26 (permalink)
 
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If you want to kill free movement of people and goods you need a hard border. It could be between the North and the South, or between the Irelands and Great Britain. Take your pick. Of course the current UK government couldn't achieve either with their current coalition.

It cannot work any onther way.
There will not be a hard border in Ireland, any London politician who thinks there will seriously needs their head examined.
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Old 31st Jul 2017, 19:08   #27 (permalink)
 
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The only 'hard border' that there is likely to be in that part of the world is between Ireland and the EU. The UK/Ireland Common Travel Area pre-dates the EU by a long, long time and will most likely last a lot longer than the EU too.
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In the view of Irish people Brussels leaves them alone, joining the EU has helped Ireland massively and there is no appetite in any way shape or forward to leave.
Up to now, yes. The Irish have been able to enjoy their subsidy-junky status while they were 'poor' and could get lots of EU money. And good luck to them for that. However, they have had all that building work done and the EU is about to start getting short of cash (clue: their second biggest contributor is about to leave). Ireland has become more wealthy, so it will be expected to start making nett contributions. In other words, they will now be one of those having to cough up to pay for all the roads and other infrastructure in the poorer countries. It'll stop being such a love-affair then and all those differences from the rest of the EU will start to niggle.

Stop thinking about Ireland's past, too many people do. It's the future that they're going to have to live in. And when they have to fly over a non-EU country to get to Brussels, I can see that starting to influence their future.
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Old 31st Jul 2017, 19:16   #28 (permalink)
 
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The only 'hard border' that there is likely to be in that part of the world is between Ireland and the EU. The UK/Ireland Common Travel Area pre-dates the EU by a long, long time and will most likely last a lot longer than the EU too.
Up to now, yes. The Irish have been able to enjoy their subsidy-junky status while they were 'poor' and could get lots of EU money. And good luck to them for that. However, they have had all that building work done and the EU is about to start getting short of cash (clue: their second biggest contributor is about to leave). Ireland has become more wealthy, so it will be expected to start making nett contributions. In other words, they will now be one of those having to cough up to pay for all the roads and other infrastructure in the poorer countries. It'll stop being such a love-affair then and all those differences from the rest of the EU will start to niggle.

Stop thinking about Ireland's past, too many people do. It's the future that they're going to have to live in. And when they have to fly over a non-EU country to get to Brussels, I can see that starting to influence their future.
ROFL

Irish people know their history not live in it.
Ireland is in EU and it intends to stay in it and that is clearly obvious from speaking to anybody in Ireland.
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Old 31st Jul 2017, 19:21   #29 (permalink)
 
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For now ...
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Old 31st Jul 2017, 19:21   #30 (permalink)
 
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Trossie, do you really believe the other 26 will agree to a hard border within the EU? Sorry that just isn't going to happen. No way, not possible.

Of course GB can have a soft border with Eire, they just have to accept free movement of goods and people. So what was this vote about again?
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Old 31st Jul 2017, 19:23   #31 (permalink)
 
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ExXB, I think you are clearly missing what I am getting at!

(By the way, how is life there outside the EU??!!)
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Old 31st Jul 2017, 22:58   #32 (permalink)
 
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ExXB, I think you are clearly missing what I am getting at!

(By the way, how is life there outside the EU??!!)
Actually its you who are missing it, Ireland is not going to join the UK in anything, even if Brexit hits them hard and they expect it, it will make zero difference.

They had Austerity like no one has ever seen, they took all the crap the IMF chucked at them and KEPT to the agreement with the IMF even at massive internal cost.

I spent lots of time there and have lots of Irish friends here and there and they not wedded to the coattails of the UK.

NI voted to remain 56% to 44%, DUPers were the leavers and now ever their supporters are very clear they do not want a hard border as economically it will be a disaster. They know London doesn't give a toss about them.

A DUP supporting friend from North Antrim said years ago, English people don't understand Northern Ireland, they never will but we will take their money anyway.

Brexiters need to get over the idea that Irish people will join them, it was the EU that enabled Irish economy to break free of the UK and people remember that.
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Old 1st Aug 2017, 07:17   #33 (permalink)
 
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Brexiters need to get over the idea that Irish people will join them, it was the EU that enabled Irish economy to break free of the UK and people remember that.
You seem to have your own ideas of what others are saying. Nowhere has it been said that Ireland will 'join' Britain. Ireland will make up their own minds in their own way. If that eventually leads to Ireland leaving the EU, that will be the Irish doing so in their own way and will have nothing to do with 'joining' Brexit.

Yes, maybe the EU did 'enable the Irish economy to break free of the UK' but that again was the past. The EU is going to look very, very different quite soon (and that is not even taking into account any effects of 'Brexit') and the Irish will be seen as one of the more wealthy members of that cartel and will have to start coughing up rather than sponging. Attitudes could well change then. And remember that the EU have already lost a referendum in Ireland (of course with the usual EU attitude of "if you didn't vote correctly the first time you'll have to go through it all again"!!). As the world's trading relationships alter I can see the Irish looking across the Atlantic to Canada and thinking that that could be a nice relationship to have with the remainder of Europe! And Ireland eventually ending up as a truly independent member of a predominantly English-speaking North Atlantic trading relationship.

All along Britain and Ireland will continue their amicable half-an-arm's-length relationship as they have done for years. We don't need any drunken Junkers twits trying to devise plots to try to break that up and they will be seen right through by both sides.

(Don't read anything 'un-Irish' into what you might perceive to 'hear' from Northern Ireland, they have no desire to break up the present open relationship between the north and republic. Their concerns are driven by a fear that Corbyn might get a chance to get into Number 10 and they will do anything to block that... with of course any chance to get some extra cash for the good people of the north! After all, the people in the republic have been 'bribed' ferociously to vote pro-EU for so long with all the subsidies that they have had pouring in!)
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Old 1st Aug 2017, 19:06   #34 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by Trossie
Interesting trade figures:
Out of the Republic of Ireland's 15 top trading partners, 47.1% is trade with EU countries and 40.1% is with non-EU countries.
When Britain 'switches sides' those figures would then switch to 34.4% EU and 52.8% non-EU.
(The USA is by far Ireland's biggest trading partner at 25.9%.)
It will be interesting to see how that influences future Irish thinking!
Future Irish thinking, across government, business and civil society is very much along the lines of Europe is the future, the UK, no matter how large and close the relationship has been is the past.

Ireland is one of the most pro-European countries in the EU. Across all age groups citizens here recognise the benefits membership of the EU has had for our society and economy;

BREXIT has little impact on positive support for the EU in Ireland - RedC Research & Marketing

Certainly we've not agreed with every decision and new direction the Union has taken. However, in stark contrast to how the pro-Brexit lobby repeatedly misrepresented the story during the UK vote, when voters in Ireland rebuffed the Nice and Lisbon treaties the government of day carried out research to determine why the proposals were rejected. After which they went to the EU, renegotiated the terms and submitted the updated versions to the electorate which were then passed.

IMHO, there's significantly more likelihood of regions of the UK splitting from London in order to retain EU membership than there is of Ireland leaving the EU in order to reatin the CTA and trade links (and no, I don't suspect the former is likely either).

WRT the idea of the UK/Ireland border moving to the Irish Sea, that was the de facto situation during WWII and the early 1970's.

Ireland will take a significant economic hit with Brexit, the harder the Brexit the bigger the hit. Groups representing business, society, unions and pretty much every aspect of civil society are working with government to try to mitigate the impact, but, don't confuse that with a "fix it at any price" attitude.

Northern Ireland is a very vulnerable place, as someone who's visited during both good times and bad, it's still a long, long way from being what most would consider "normal". Making travel and commerce more difficult across the island will have a negative impact on the great working being done by many to normalise the region. Less trade, less investment and less cross border travel will not help their efforts and could create an environment for "undesirables" to foster discontent.

BTW, Ireland is a net contributor to the EU budget.

JAS

Last edited by Just a spotter; 1st Aug 2017 at 19:42.
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Old 1st Aug 2017, 19:27   #35 (permalink)
 
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You seem to have your own ideas of what others are saying. Nowhere has it been said that Ireland will 'join' Britain. Ireland will make up their own minds in their own way. If that eventually leads to Ireland leaving the EU, that will be the Irish doing so in their own way and will have nothing to do with 'joining' Brexit.

Yes, maybe the EU did 'enable the Irish economy to break free of the UK' but that again was the past. The EU is going to look very, very different quite soon (and that is not even taking into account any effects of 'Brexit') and the Irish will be seen as one of the more wealthy members of that cartel and will have to start coughing up rather than sponging. Attitudes could well change then. And remember that the EU have already lost a referendum in Ireland (of course with the usual EU attitude of "if you didn't vote correctly the first time you'll have to go through it all again"!!). As the world's trading relationships alter I can see the Irish looking across the Atlantic to Canada and thinking that that could be a nice relationship to have with the remainder of Europe! And Ireland eventually ending up as a truly independent member of a predominantly English-speaking North Atlantic trading relationship.

All along Britain and Ireland will continue their amicable half-an-arm's-length relationship as they have done for years. We don't need any drunken Junkers twits trying to devise plots to try to break that up and they will be seen right through by both sides.

(Don't read anything 'un-Irish' into what you might perceive to 'hear' from Northern Ireland, they have no desire to break up the present open relationship between the north and republic. Their concerns are driven by a fear that Corbyn might get a chance to get into Number 10 and they will do anything to block that... with of course any chance to get some extra cash for the good people of the north! After all, the people in the republic have been 'bribed' ferociously to vote pro-EU for so long with all the subsidies that they have had pouring in!)
You are coming across with the Tory Little Englander view that all Ireland ever did was sponge off the EU.

Ireland is and always has been pro EU. That is not going to change and the wishful thinking of Ireland breaking away from EU is one that is laughed at. A senior business person whom I have known for circa 30 years in Ireland just said "Look at UK, they don't know what they voted for, have no clue what they are negotiating and then pretend it will all be ok".................... and this was before the debacle of the General Election.
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Old 1st Aug 2017, 21:24   #36 (permalink)
 
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Trossie: don't get me wrong, I not a Nationalist and am actually quite Anglophile. However I find your attitude to Ireland absolutely insulting, with references "sponging" and "subsidy-junkies".

The EU has long had a regional policy, which attempts (not always very efficiently) to channel resources to poorer regions in the Union. Individual nation states do the same, as with Wales and Northern Ireland. As Just a Spotter has pointed out the Republic of Ireland is no longer a net recipient of EU funds. A the risk of being deemed offensive, the only subsidy junkies are North of the border, being given their fix by GB taxpayers.
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Old 2nd Aug 2017, 07:30   #37 (permalink)
 
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... the only subsidy junkies are North of the border, being given their fix by GB taxpayers.
Right now, yes! And can you blame them? They've spent so many years looking at what went pouring in south of the border that they can't really be faulted in thinking "Here's our turn so let's grab it!" And it's all that shallow support that Corbyn got in the last election that has elevated NI to that position to be able to get all that cash.

Don't overestimate the 'strength' of the future EU, it has some very, very rocky patched to negotiate ahead even if 'Brexit' wasn't on that list too. That love-affair with the EU is going to start wearing a bit thin in more than just a few of those remaining 27.

(This would be a boring discussion if we only heard from all of you who like to sing the praises of the EU and look down on the UK! Regarding "sponging" and "subsidy-junkies", I see the Spanish the same way, but I like the Irish a lot more than the Spanish! Seeing developments like Cork airport and comparing it with the stupid development of airports in Spain, I think that the Irish have used what they've managed to get a lot more sensibly than the Spanish have. Still, it's been someone else's money that's done it...)
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Old 2nd Aug 2017, 11:27   #38 (permalink)
 
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Adding a slight course correction to get the thread back on track …

Based on the current state of negotiations, it’s looking like a “traditional border” with at least customs and probably passport checks is likely. Protecting the process and progress of the Good Friday Agreement is one area that both the UK and EU said they agreed on, yet when they sat down to talk about on the topic it was kicked down the road. This is both surprising and worrying, because when negotiating, the chance for an early mutual win is considered of great benefit. IMHO, that outcome doesn’t bode well for the prospects of an open border or the broader negotiations.

The UK government is fixating on migration and movement, thus a soft border between Ireland and the UK isn’t an option as Ireland won’t be pulling up the bridges with the rest of the EU. Now the UK could adopt a Swiss type approach, allowing free movement of EU citizens, but that would not be in keeping with recent pronouncements by cabinet members nor is it likely to sit well with the EU who maintain that all four freedoms are inseparable, so unless the UK opts for the softest of Brexits, i.e. EFTA, then I think it’s unlikely we’ll see adoption of that model.

Logistically, the “Sea Border” idea is probably the cheapest, simplest and quickest to implement. No need to build multiple check points along the near 500KM partition, covering multiple road crossings (several of which traverse the frontier a number of times), waterways and 100’s of fields and farms. Retaining the current free movement of people and goods across the border, checking passports at point of entry into Britain for people coming from the island of Ireland while using existing methodologies to handle freight entering for transit across or delivery on the island of Britain. However, politically, it’s at the very least a hot potato, not only for the Unionists (and I include many within the Conservative and Unionist Party in that), but I would suspect also for a small but vocal cohort who would not wish to see the need to produce papers for travel within the UK (although, just how many of them are regular visitors to Northern Ireland would be an interesting statistic).

My 2c is on this and the wider Brexit negotiations, is that political ideology will triumph over pragmatism. Mssrs Davis, Fox et al want a hard out, Ms May is doing what she’s told and flowing in step. Those within the Remain camp have been vanquished and their attempts, led by the Chancellor to pursue a soft Brexit are being met with a force determined not only to undermine them but to isolate and humiliate them. The UK negotiating position isn’t as shambolic as perceived, my guess is that those in charge have decided to not engage and just run down the clock, they have no negotiating positions because they have not prepared any as they are not there to negotiate. Their preferred outcome is no deal, no payment, no Commons vote, just leave.

We’re set for a hard Brexit and an attempt at a hard-ish border in Ireland (which history shows will soak up resources and won’t achieve its aims), all of which will create unwelcome headwinds for the deveopment of civil society in Northern Ireland and negativly impact on communites on both sides of the border.

JAS

Last edited by Just a spotter; 2nd Aug 2017 at 11:49.
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Old 2nd Aug 2017, 18:26   #39 (permalink)
 
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The UK negotiating position isn’t as shambolic as perceived, my guess is that those in charge have decided to not engage and just run down the clock, they have no negotiating positions because they have not prepared any as they are not there to negotiate. Their preferred outcome is no deal, no payment, no Commons vote, just leave.

We’re set for a hard Brexit and an attempt at a hard-ish border in Ireland (which history shows will soak up resources and won’t achieve its aims), all of which will create unwelcome headwinds for the deveopment of civil society in Northern Ireland and negativly impact on communites on both sides of the border.

JAS
Not an unreasonable viewpoint.

Think they can forget LHR expansion as Germany / France will not play ball on aviation.

Media reports today highlighting that 35-40,000 City jobs are likely to go and that will have a knock on effect as that probably supports probably another 20-30,000 jobs.

I think Brexit will doom DUP as many will not like impact they bringing on...........
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Old 2nd Aug 2017, 19:22   #40 (permalink)
 
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The "you broke it, you fix it" attitude has come about because the perception is the UK still hasn't achieved a unanimous Brexit strategy, hard? Soft? Scrambled? There's also a perception that the conservatives are completely divided and have no idea of the complexities involved or the sheer scale of what needs to be done.

Until the UK decides on it's own ultimate position, there's just no point in engaging, as the goal posts keep moving.

As an Irish citizen, I'd hope for no hard border, but if I had to choose a border between the UK or the EU, I'd choose the UK. I find the whole thing depressing but that's the situation we face.
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