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Old 15th Aug 2017, 18:34   #16161 (permalink)
 
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For years the BoE has been trying to get inflation up to target,now they have succeeded it's bad news...
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Old 15th Aug 2017, 19:00   #16162 (permalink)
 
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Since before the EU and post joining, prices have gone up and down, the exchange rate has been lower and higher, mortgages have gone up and down and shares go up and down, the economy has gone up and down, all to some extent a lot lower/higher than they are now, it is part of economic life, but the insistence of using these as an excuse that Brexit is bad based only on fear of change and personal opinion of some, beggars belief, the fact that the UK has survived worse and become stronger for it seems to have passed the younger generation by, or so it would seem.

The lack of faith in the UKs ability to prosper without being shackled to the EU puppet masters and paying a large sum of money for that privilege is a very sad indictment of how things have become.
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Old 15th Aug 2017, 19:49   #16163 (permalink)
 
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So what does all the fuss boil down to. It boils down to the following.

What`s going to happen to all our lot over there and what`s going to happen to their lot over here.
To answer it, let us look at what these two lots our doing out of their respective countries.
Our lot over there : Mainly OAP`s spending their pensions on booze and not on heating bills.
Their lot over here : Mainly plumbers, electricians, copper cable and church roof lead strippers, car wash slaves, strawberry pickers, etc., who are accustomed to roughing it and send their gains, ill gotten or otherwise, back home to their folk.

What`s going to happen to us if both lots are returned to where they came from.
We will have more OAP`s than we need and they will have more plumbers, electricians, copper cable nickers, church roof lead strippers, car wash slaves, strawberry pickers than they need.
How are we going to deal with this excess. We will work out how much an OAP is worth against a plumber, electrician, copper cable nicker, church roof stripper, car wash slave, strawberry picker and negotiate a trade deal under which we will get all those with the mentioned skills for the price of one OAP. Now that is what`s called a GOOD DEAL.
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Old 15th Aug 2017, 20:00   #16164 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
Since before the EU and post joining, prices have gone up and down, the exchange rate has been lower and higher, mortgages have gone up and down and shares go up and down, the economy has gone up and down, all to some extent a lot lower/higher than they are now, it is part of economic life, but the insistence of using these as an excuse that Brexit is bad based only on fear of change and personal opinion of some, beggars belief, the fact that the UK has survived worse and become stronger for it seems to have passed the younger generation by, or so it would seem.

The lack of faith in the UKs ability to prosper without being shackled to the EU puppet masters and paying a large sum of money for that privilege is a very sad indictment of how things have become.
More eloquently put than myself. KnC just doesn't want to see anything else but doom. If it isn't in The Guardian written by P Toynbee then it isn't true.
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Old 15th Aug 2017, 21:09   #16165 (permalink)
 
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To not be under the ECJ we have to pass the great repeal minefield bill itself a nightmare
There is no have about it. The repeal bill is a domestic issue and has zero effect on the default exit. It will occur what ever is in place.

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Anyone remain or leave will have voted on their perceived pocket apart from some masochistic nutters
So we have gone from racists to masochistic nutters. I knew perfectly fine what was likely to happen for a short period after Brexit. It won't start building back up until we are completely out mainly because the EU will prevent it.

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don't know anyone who will vote to be worse off and committed to a decade of austerity
That's going to happen anyway now with the rebate gone and the damages/divorce bill to pay for a transition period. Your looking at at least 100 billion going to the EU in the next 3 years if we don't default exit and tell them to whistle for payment.

And I do believe some remainers are stupid enough to be happy to pay that.
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Old 15th Aug 2017, 21:14   #16166 (permalink)
 
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Nip

We are in this position with rising prices and soon mortguage / interests for the prolonged period the pound has stayed so low

Very worrying even with the bargain basement pound exports to the rest of the world have dropped rather than gone up
Inflation at present isa direct result of a poorly valued pound

Why is it so badly valued ? It's because the world markets don't like brexit and see it as a massive mistake for our economy
They fear most a cliff edge no deal departure but the collapse in the pound is a direct result of Brexit

If you can't take that message as a confirmation that brexit is bad news I don't know what to say other than brexit love is blind
There is no economic argument for brexit full stop

TescoApp

And you are prepared to loose 54 billion a year of our GDP which i what our economy will shrink by
Makes a payment to the EU look like chicken feed
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Old 15th Aug 2017, 21:27   #16167 (permalink)
 
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And where have you magic'd this 54 billion from?

Just imagine your theoretical referendum when the outcome is that it would cost 5% in the basic rate to stay in.

Your theorys on how people vote with their wallets, I think we can all guess at the outcome.

And for that 2.3% of our GDP which actually get something. infact its 1.3% because you can take the EU payments off that at 17 billion a year.
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Old 15th Aug 2017, 21:31   #16168 (permalink)
 
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Lol. Badly valued. It's valued you idiot. That's what it's worth at any given time.
Good for some. Bad for others
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Old 15th Aug 2017, 22:33   #16169 (permalink)
 
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'Hard Brexit' could cost up to 66bn and slash UK GDP by almost 10%, Treasury warns | The Independent

TescoApp these were private in-house leaked figures by George Osbourne but accepted by this government.
My 54 billion came from a more conservative source

That also ties in with the government announcement yesterday refusing to reveal a hard no deal brexit research for fear such a release would damage its negotiating position with the EU! About says it all ?
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Old 15th Aug 2017, 22:38   #16170 (permalink)
 
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Oh FFS, check the headline which very clearly includes the word 'COULD'

None of this is difficult.
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Old 15th Aug 2017, 22:38   #16171 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
And I do believe some remainers are stupid enough to be happy to pay that.
Not this one. I'd rather junk #brexshit, return to real life, and spend the billions on the NHS instead.
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Old 15th Aug 2017, 22:48   #16172 (permalink)
 
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SFFP

These were not project fear figures but for internal consumption when Osbourne was Chancellor
These figures were accepted by this Government
Obviously they were predictions so "could" is all that was stated

But take these instead if you want ? either show that brexit is brexshit

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7541616.html

Rather pales into insignificance a payment to the EU
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Old 15th Aug 2017, 23:18   #16173 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by Pace View Post
'Hard Brexit' could cost up to 66bn and slash UK GDP by almost 10%, Treasury warns | The Independent

TescoApp these were private in-house leaked figures by George Osbourne but accepted by this government.
My 54 billion came from a more conservative source

That also ties in with the government announcement yesterday refusing to reveal a hard no deal brexit research for fear such a release would damage its negotiating position with the EU! About says it all ?
That report has ben debunked so many times its untrue. They forecast this disaster is going to happen in 15 years time yet their forecast in the same document for 6 months time was totally wrong..

According to that report we are supposed to be in recession now with a large jump in unemployment - yet we are still growing and have the lowest unemployment since the 70's

Believable?
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Old 16th Aug 2017, 02:00   #16174 (permalink)
 
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Could, should, would, not even the positiveness of a will. Let me know when these reports start detailing what something has actually cost and I might start paying attention. Overall, just the prospect of Brexit has proved to be a significant economic benefit to this country over the past year.

There is no reason to expect that situation to change purely on the grounds of Brexit. Other world affairs over which we have little control may seriously affect our economy, for example, an armed conflict in the Far East. In that event, being a member, or not, of the EU won't matter. It is probably better to be able to pursue an independent agenda.

As far as most of the country is concerned, Brexit happened 6 months ago and we are currently in the transition period. On the 29th of March 2019 we formally sever all ties to the EU. No payments, no obligations, no subservience to the ECJ, no movement of people or trade except on our terms. Out means out!
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Old 16th Aug 2017, 06:40   #16175 (permalink)
 
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Your looking at at least 100 billion going to the EU in the next 3 years
same as if we stayed in then?
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Old 16th Aug 2017, 07:24   #16176 (permalink)
 
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same as if we stayed in then?
Not really, no divorce payment. And we had a 50/50 chance of keeping the rebate.

So net it would have been in the region of 30-40 Billion over 3 years.

Without rebate its up to 45-55 Billion.

The Divorce payment is open ended on how much the EU wants and thinks it can screw out of us.

To me its pretty easy for them just to let the costs mount up and in the extremely unlikely event there is another referendum on the subject hit the voters with basic rate increase on tax and loosing the pound for a full cancelation. Which everyone knows fine would ensure a leave vote with a bigger margin than last time.
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Old 16th Aug 2017, 08:30   #16177 (permalink)
 
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The facts are the EU account for over 40% of our economy so we should be fighting to retain and even expand every ounce of that trade

Our gateway status ? London had become the capital city of importance for access to the EU and had attracted a massive amount of internal world investment

I see making payments to the EU for access to those markets as no different to a large successful Oxford street store paying huge rental
What brexiteers basically say is look at what we can save by sticking our store up a back street

Even with the costs we do exceptionally well in the single market and customs union
That is the reason the economy has held up since the brexit vote despite the pound tumbling to its gutter lows from previous Stella heights

It is when brexit happens and we no longer have the safety net of the single market or customs union that the predictions will come about
It isn't rocket science to see that if we restrict access to those markets as well as turning away investment because of those markets that our economy will be severely damaged
Brexit other than an ideology is economically bonkers
We will be in the EUs hands on whatever transition they determine

Where I do agree with brexiteers is that the EU needs reforming
They should have 3 tiers
Shenghen for free movement amongs a tight group of equals
A second tier for developing EU countries with FOM to work
A third not so restrictive Tier for countries who want more independence but want to buy into the markets
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Old 16th Aug 2017, 09:02   #16178 (permalink)
 
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they should have 3 working currency's and one top government currency for internal workings.

They should have an upper standards tier and 3 social economic tiers

But nothing will change until the UK is out and they have a survive or die choice to be made.

If they manage to prevent/stop Brexit they will just carry on as they are.

But its seems that Juncker and the EU commission want shot of us so I am pretty certain what ever the political feeling in the Uk is on the subject the UK will be out of everything clear cut then deals will be made.

To be honest all the economic theorys about what might happen are pretty much meaningless. The powers that be really don't care about the outcome its just purely personal pride, ideology and principle which is pushing things.
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Old 16th Aug 2017, 09:10   #16179 (permalink)
 
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To be honest all the economic theorys about what might happen are pretty much meaningless. The powers that be really don't care about the outcome its just purely personal pride, ideology and principle which is pushing things.
That is the most sad and enlightening comment about the stupidity of brexit
All you will achieve if a no deal exit ever happened is chaos and the Conservatives out of power for a long time

Then you will wake up and say what the heck have we done

Like previously the brexiteers having done their damage will disappear into the woods
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Old 16th Aug 2017, 09:25   #16180 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by Jet II View Post
Some of us are old enough to remember the last time it hit parity (it was only 8 years ago) and life went on as normal.


Floating currencies do tend to, you know, float...
Best do some research before you post. The Euro has never reached parity with Sterling. It got to around 1.1 / 1 in 2011 briefly. I think that record will be broken soon.

And while we are on statistics : The EU exports 290 billion Euros to the UK, while we export 230 billion to them. This equates to 580 euros per capita for them and 3800 per capita for us.
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