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Old 19th Apr 2017, 22:02   #1241 (permalink)
 
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Sky was showing a clip from a recent concert in Pyongyang in which scenes were played out on large screens of U.S. cities being blown to kingdom come by nukes. Seriously?

This really does get tiresome does it not? I know they have done this before. Both parties will probably have to back away from the precipice on this as there are no good options, but it is getting harder to do each time.
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Old 20th Apr 2017, 01:14   #1242 (permalink)
 
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"I have my eyes on you!" was the message they got from the US, wherever that particular fleet might or might not have been.
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Old 20th Apr 2017, 10:52   #1243 (permalink)
 
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What about the senior military staff in NK? And their counterparts in the US?

Whilst Mr Kim has youth, lineage and brutality as 'assets', the higher cadres are at least older and more experienced in what passes for war & peace in that part of the world. I think it's possible that there would be attempts to restrain or liquidate their Dear Leader if he were about to unleash mass destruction.

Such officers would be worthwhile contacts for covert diplomatic operations and/or US special forces already in theater.

Turning to Mr Trump and his staff...I'm less hopeful. I don't (yet) see him as a calm and prudent Commander-in-Chief. (Do the US forces?) I'd like to believe that he has the benefit of wiser and less mercurial subordinates who have the ability to rein him in when necessary, whilst still allowing him to feel good about himself.
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Old 20th Apr 2017, 13:30   #1244 (permalink)
 
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John Hill and Weefatwun must both be feeling like they are in a corner of late!

South Korean and US forces to the south....China will about 200,000 Troops massed on that border and now the Russians carrying out a build up of Troops.

Combine that with the meetings between the USA Senior Leadership and all of the heads of State of those Nations and even a nutcase should figure out this would suggest the three major powers in the World must have come to the decision it is time to put and end to the guy with the worst barber in North Korea.
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Old 21st Apr 2017, 04:07   #1245 (permalink)
 
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Japanese TV geopolitics discussion today mentioning that Russia has welcomed NK's 'passenger' ship to travel to Vladivostok on 9 May to coincide with Victory Day. This ship (Wiki Man'gyŏngbong ho
Man-gyeongbong ho or M/V MAN GYONG BONG) used to ply the route between NK and Japan, but has been banned for some years. Russia has now allowed this ship regular visits.

Further, of the 50 kg of plutonium that DPRK is said to have, roughly 40 kg has been gifted in a series of smallish deliveries by Putin, is another whisper.

The general drift of the analysis was that Russia's support of NK also signals a cooling of relations with China.
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Old 21st Apr 2017, 04:10   #1246 (permalink)
 
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Fatwun has rocked the boat a little too much with threats of nuclear war. Rattling the Americans cage and drawing a battle group and missile defence system onto China's doorstep hasn't gone down too well in Beijing.

China will lose face if the Americans successfully intervene in their backyard and encouraged by their victory, take a greater presence in the South China Sea.

The Chinese want the US military out of their region, and to appear in control. A puppet state in North Korea is in their interest as a buffer, but only if they can call the shots. The Russians maintained an iron curtain in Europe for 45 years and kept their client states largely submissive, mostly towing the line.

Fatwun is in more danger from China than America. The Chinese influence and contacts within the leadership are far greater than the Americans and they are well placed to organise an inside job to secure regime change without having too revert to all out war.

A peaceful outcome with the Americans sailing away and a new leadership in Pyongyang without nuclear weapons is whats needed.
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Old 21st Apr 2017, 05:35   #1247 (permalink)
 
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And all the Chinese do is twiddle their thumbs while building one-tsunami fragile islands. They move slower than glaciers. Icebergs are racing cars compared to them.
Easier to believe they don't know what the hell to do.
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Old 21st Apr 2017, 12:16   #1248 (permalink)
 
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Carl Vinson, to be in the Sea of Japan "early next week"?


https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20170421_19/
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Old 21st Apr 2017, 18:19   #1249 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by meadowrun View Post
And all the Chinese do is twiddle their thumbs while building one-tsunami fragile islands. They move slower than glaciers. Icebergs are racing cars compared to them.
Easier to believe they don't know what the hell to do.
Meadowrun, while it's quite possible they're unsure what to do, the Chinese are far from slow when they know what they want done. Take a look at photos of Shanghai or Beijing from 25 years ago and compare them to today. It would take the US 25 years just to do the environmental impact statement for that much construction...
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Old 21st Apr 2017, 18:24   #1250 (permalink)
 
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tdracer,
"It would take the US 25 years just to do the environmental impact statement for that much construction... "
Possibly true, but look at the pollution levels in China, which would you prefer?
f
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Old 21st Apr 2017, 19:06   #1251 (permalink)
 
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Nukes on Missiles....maybe closer than some might think!

Detail from North Korea may show how close it is to ICBMs - Business Insider
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Old 21st Apr 2017, 23:23   #1252 (permalink)
 
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OIC12

Why shouldn't we belive the article? Still convinced the NK nukes are somewhere between non existent and outdated? The Norks are working hard, from their perspective, they have a reason.
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Old 22nd Apr 2017, 00:27   #1253 (permalink)
 
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Looks as if for those keeping score at home it is nil-nil...or perhaps with Augustus up a half goal.

The more I read the more I am convinced that there is only so much that China can do and only so much that they wish to do. I think they need some reassurance that there will be a buffer between them and SK.

The reason I might give Gloop a half goal at this time is that Trump and his staff have made some pretty strong statements. So they send a carrier group to the Sea of Japan. So they send tactical nukes back to SK. So they do this and that. If Trump is just rattling sabers then at some point, if it is not already happening now, he will have to stand down with the rhetoric and that means that there will be great rejoicing across NK with songs of praise and worship for the chosen (and portly) Un.

This would not necessarily be losing face on Trump's part as I am sure Mattis and the other senior staff do not think in those terms, but it might be a loss of perceived leverage.

That is not to say that the cousins should unleash an attack that might end up sacrificing Seoul, but I think they have to be very careful with what they are going to do.

As has been said before, I don't think that just "pinpoint missile" strikes are going to do it. Getting by on the cheap, so to speak, is alluring but errant with the stakes being what they are.

This means that a lot of military kit and soldiers and sailors are going to have to be brought into position and we have not seen that yet.

In the meantime the fat child bleats on and on about American cites in ashes.

Speaking of General Mattis. He looks as if he has aged twenty years in the last two months. Wonder what is crossing his desk every day?

Last edited by Uncle Fred; 22nd Apr 2017 at 01:04.
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Old 22nd Apr 2017, 00:47   #1254 (permalink)
 
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Possibly true, but look at the pollution levels in China, which would you prefer?
Fleigle, missing the point. I'm not suggesting the China system is better, I'm just pointing out that, given a clear goal, it's anything but slow (especially when compared to the bureaucratic mess that we've moved towards). The real question is, have the Chinese settled on a clear objective with regard to NK (and if so, what is it).
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Old 22nd Apr 2017, 01:14   #1255 (permalink)
 
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Speaking of General Mattis. He looks as if he has aged twenty years in the last two months. Wonder what is crossing his desk every day?
I bet it's those dam unexpected tweets that scaring the sheet out of him.
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Old 22nd Apr 2017, 12:41   #1256 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by meadowrun View Post
And all the Chinese do is twiddle their thumbs while building one-tsunami fragile islands. They move slower than glaciers. Icebergs are racing cars compared to them.
Easier to believe they don't know what the hell to do.
The Chinese play the long game and are not prepared to make quick and rash decisions. They believe that a "wait-and-see" attitude is best, as regards NK.
They would be happy to wait until NK crashes and burns, as all brutal dictatorships finally do. In this case, it's taking a little longer than most brutal dictatorships.
However, something will eventually give in NK, and the Little Fat Wun may suddenly find that he's on the end of a firing squad, instead of ordering one for the offenders against his regime.
What it will take to make his regime collapse is purely speculation at this point.
A fatal medical event affecting LFW could be another scenario. A serious natural disaster could be another (an earthquake destroying much infrastructure, including military infrastructure - or a major flood or drought).
There is also the potential for a serious disaster involving military explosives or an errant missile. A nuclear accident isn't unthinkable, particularly with NK's lack of experience in the field.
Often, sudden changes come out of left field, and cannot be envisaged in planning and forecasting.
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Old 22nd Apr 2017, 16:29   #1257 (permalink)
 
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The Chinese play the long game and are not prepared to make quick and rash decisions. They believe that a "wait-and-see" attitud
They've moved quickly on the South China Sea. When they see something in their interests, they'll move quickly. There's few likely outcomes that work out in their best interest re NK thus a hesitancy to change the status quo. Wait and see might work in a two man race, but there's an additional player involved as the fatwun has ratcheted up the tension.


Quote:
However, something will eventually give in NK, and the Little Fat Wun may suddenly find that he's on the end of a firing squad, instead of ordering one for the offenders against his regime.
He's put his Officer Corps and the political elitists existence in jeopardy yet none have sharpened the pitchforks and stormed the castle. The threat to their comfy way of life exists and either they don't know of the danger or they're that fanatical and will follow the waddling one over the cliff. Prior to the GW 2.0 emails were finding their way into Iraqi General's email inciting them to revolt against SH, I'm sure by that and other means the top echelon have seen similar. That leaves me to guess that they're ready to follow him to the edge out of fear rather than save their own bacon.
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Old 22nd Apr 2017, 22:18   #1258 (permalink)
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NK has added another nuclear ballistic missile target : Australia

North Korea warns Australia of nuclear strike over Julie Bishop's comments
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Old 23rd Apr 2017, 03:26   #1259 (permalink)
 
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I think the Ninjas will be giving him a new haircut fairly soon
They will provide an Asian solution to an Asian problem.
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Old 23rd Apr 2017, 03:45   #1260 (permalink)
 
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NK have just come out with harsh words for China. Perhaps they are happier holding hands with Russia now.
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