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Old 10th Dec 2011, 15:46   #101 (permalink)
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An English political pundit has pointed out that Sarkozy faces an election next year (and is considered to be unpopular and unlikely to succeed).

What about Merkel? Re-election in 2013.

However, policies of leaders are frequently decided by permanent officers (though probably not in the case of Dave).
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Old 10th Dec 2011, 15:54   #102 (permalink)
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An English political pundit has pointed out that Sarkozy faces an election next year (and is considered to be unpopular and unlikely to succeed).

I' d love to see Francois Bayrou elected, but I am dreaming maybe.

It's time for change, really. I would appreciate somebody like Chirac or VGE we had in the past.

I am a bit sick of the right wing/left wing fight, a fair political power from the center would be welcomed.
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Old 10th Dec 2011, 16:03   #103 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by KAG View Post
that doesn't want to understand how the 21st century works
If the way the 21st Century works is that Sarkozy and Merkel stitch things up between themselves, depose other elected leaders and then hand the running of those countries to Brussels via EU approved 'technocrats' then I don't want any part of it.

You've got a great deal to say about the onward march of EU integration KAG, but very little about how democracy is being trampled underfoot in the process.
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Old 10th Dec 2011, 16:13   #104 (permalink)
 
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What seems to be happening is that the core countries of the Eurozone are now insisting that the fiscal criteria which should have been in place from the inception of this ill-conceived project in order to make it work are now adhered to. Thus they are shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted.
You mean the criteria and rules that were in place and being adhered to until a certain two "powerhouses" broke them as their economies ran into trouble, rules that were ignored when push came to shove?

So how will they "enforce" the rules now when you consider that, since 1999, Greece has NEVER had their budget deficit within the 3% of GDP rule, Portugal has been over the limit for 10 of these years, Italy 8 of these years...

Then we come to the next two on the list of worst offenders. France (7) and Germany (5). That's right, the two countries shouting the most about things have been the 4th and 5th worst offenders as far as not keeping their economy under control. Only THREE nations (Finland, Luxembourg and Estonia) have actually been within the "rules", so how is anything that France and Germany say going to be applied properly when they happily IGNORE the "rules" themselves when it suits them.........
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Old 10th Dec 2011, 16:17   #105 (permalink)
 
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An English political pundit has pointed out that Sarkozy faces an election next year (and is considered to be unpopular and unlikely to succeed).
Should it matter. With more power devolved to Brussels, any elected leader the French electorate may choose, could be replaced by Brussels, a la Greece and Italy.
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Old 10th Dec 2011, 16:25   #106 (permalink)
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Andy-S:

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If the way the 21st Century works is that Sarkozy and Merkel stitch things up between themselves
Maybe because Tony Blair was missing...
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Old 10th Dec 2011, 16:31   #107 (permalink)
 
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hellsbrink

Yes .... nail ... head!

Nobody is free of guilt in this pitiful confidence trick. There were the thieving politicians feathering their nests, the countries living on credit, those who aided and abetted the crimies, and those who stood by and watched it happening, all of which is precisely why the sooner the whole sorry mess implodes on itself, the better.

Some commentators think this could lead to conflict between nations, that seems extreme, but civil unrest has already taken place in some affected countries and I can see that worsening. A winter of discontent to come?
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Old 10th Dec 2011, 16:32   #108 (permalink)
 
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The former Belgian prime minister, Guy Verhofstadt, the most outspoken advocate for a United States of Europe, has threatened to take EU leaders to court if they proceed with a treaty outside EU strictures. (He said that) "a new non-EU treaty would set a dangerous precedent, potentially leading to a splitting of the bloc into subgroups of Member States who could decide on their own when EU institutions could apply and when not."

All the fundamentalist posters on this thread, both for and against the UK position (and etc and etc and etc) can't ignore the fact that EU Rules were made to be broken, starting with France and Germany as repeat offenders since 2002. Today there isn't a single Member State that has stayed within the 60% debt limit of GDP - not even Germany.

So the UK is expected to trust its financial future to a club of dishonest nations which makes up the rules - and breaks them - as necessary ? A club that's failed every audit for the past 17 years ? A club whose leaders put their own nation's interests first - and deride Cameron when he does the same thing ?

Don't make me laugh.
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Old 10th Dec 2011, 16:38   #109 (permalink)
 
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Maybe because Tony Blair was missing...
And, thankfully, Gordon Broon.

Come to think of it, he really is missing. When was the last time he was seen in the House of Commons?
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Old 10th Dec 2011, 16:45   #110 (permalink)
 
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Seems to me Sarkozy's public and pointed insult of Cameron did more to bolster Cameron's stature as a principled objector than anything Cameron might have done himself. The picture has been widely covered in the US.

As I see it, things are still muddling along and none of the structural changes, i.e. dismantling social spending not paid for, but adding to debt, have been made.

Things won't get real dicey until the masses of government dependents start starving. Same applies to the US.
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Old 10th Dec 2011, 16:59   #111 (permalink)
 
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Then we come to the next two on the list of worst offenders. France (7) and Germany (5). That's right, the two countries shouting the most about things have been the 4th and 5th worst offenders as far as not keeping their economy under control. Only THREE nations (Finland, Luxembourg and Estonia) have actually been within the "rules", so how is anything that France and Germany say going to be applied properly when they happily IGNORE the "rules" themselves when it suits them.........
hells, as posted here : EU Politics - Hamsterwheel

Quote:
The following table states the ratio of public debt to GDP in percent for EU and other selected European states. Eurozone and non-eurozone EU members are marked as Euro and EU respectively. The euro convergence criterion is 60 %.


Country..........OECD 2009........IMF 2009........CIA 2009.....EuroStat 2010
Austria.................. 72.7............ 67.10........... 66.40................ 72.3
Belgium................ 100.4 ............93.70 .........101.00................ 96.8
Cyprus...................................... 56.20 ............56.20................ 60.8
Estonia..................................................... ...... 7.10.................. 6.6
Finland ...................52.6 ............44.00............ 40.30................ 48.4
France ...................87.1 ...........78.10 ...........77.60................ 81.7
Germany................. 76.5 ...........72.50 ...........77.20 ...............83.2
Greece................. 120.2............................. 113.40.............. 142.8
Ireland................... 72.7 ............64.00.......... 64.80 ................96.2
Italy ....................127.7............ 115.8......... 115.80 .............119.0
Luxembourg............. 18.0............. 16.40 ...........14.60............... 18.4
Malta....................................................... ..... 69.00.............. 68.0
Netherlands............ 69.4 ...............58.9 ..........60.90.............. 62.7
Portugal................. 86.3 ..............75.80 .........76.80 ...............93.0
Slovakia .................39.8 ...............35.70 ..........35.70 ...............41.0
Slovenia................. 44.1................................. 31.30............... 38.0
Spain ....................62.4 ...............53.20 ..........53.20 ..............60.1 (60.6)


[...] The EU set out criteria and have consistently ignored it, issued waivers and denied the existence of the problem.
and another source here : European public debt at a glance - CNN.com

Quote:
For the 17 euro zone countries, the debt is even higher, increasing from 79.3% in 2009 to 85.1% last year.

Topping the European debt league is Greece with 142.8% government debt to GDP ratio, followed by Italy (119.0%), Belgium (96.8%) Ireland (96.2%), Portugal (93.0%), Germany (83.2%), France (81.7%) Hungary (80.2%) and the United Kingdom (80.0%).

The lowest government debt to GDP ratios were recorded in Estonia (6.6%), Bulgaria (16.2%) and Luxembourg (18.4%), according to the Eurostat report.

Under the Stability and growth pact, agreed when the euro began in 1999, member states are supposed to ensure their debt does not exceed 60% of their GDP.
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Old 10th Dec 2011, 17:04   #112 (permalink)
 
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EU Rules were made to be broken, starting with France and Germany as repeat offenders since 2002. Today there isn't a single Member State that has stayed within the 60% debt limit of GDP - not even Germany.

So the UK is expected to trust its financial future to a club of dishonest nations which makes up the rules - and breaks them - as necessary ? A club that's failed every audit for the past 17 years ? A club whose leaders put their own nation's interests first - and deride Cameron when he does the same thing ?

ORAC,



(my Bold for emphasis)
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Old 10th Dec 2011, 17:29   #113 (permalink)
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HAHA! It didn't take long before the old comments heard 1000 times came back!

What could be an issue soon could be the Eurozone european banks wondering what they are doing in the City (Europe finance place) and coming back to the continent, Frankfurt maybe, pushed by the new fiscal policy that won't encourage them to stay in UK.

The consequences of this historical isolation are not understood, and what Cameron wanted (or forced) to protect, the City, is maybe itself going to change place over the next years (Franckfurt?), hence doing the exact opposite of what he entended first: the City exist only because of Europe (and not the opposite), getting out of all Europe's monetary decisions so clearly is going to have some result on the finance reality...

I was the one saying that Europe will continue with or without UK a few weeks ago, in the same very thread (maybe the other part...).
Today I am saying that the Cameron's naive move is not bad news for UK only, but bad news for the City itself.


This time I will leave this hamster wheel for a while, until the next important event occurs.

See you and don't turn around too much.

Cheers for now.
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Old 10th Dec 2011, 17:35   #114 (permalink)
 
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Would that be "incentives" that would be illegal under EU law, KAG? You know, the sort of thing they have tried, and failed, to do before? The very concept that was slapped down yesterday?

Dream on, Bubba, and when you decide that China isn't so attractive to you then you'll maybe see the light.......
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Old 10th Dec 2011, 18:36   #115 (permalink)
 
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What could be an issue soon could be the Eurozone european banks wondering what they are doing in the City (Europe finance place) and coming back to the continent, Frankfurt maybe, pushed by the new fiscal policy that won't encourage them to stay in UK.
Not if the drivers of EU policy get their desired financial transaction tax pushed through, which of course is the very reason for the desire to bring the UK further into EUro integration and the petulance at not getting their own way. If that tax comes into play, which has been much pressed, then in fact more banking will move away from the EU into umm.. London.

Currently the City has over 500 international banks


Quote:
The consequences of this historical isolation are not understood, and what Cameron wanted (or forced) to protect, the City, is maybe itself going to change place over the next years (Franckfurt?), hence doing the exact opposite of what he entended first:
Well in fact by imposition of a financial transaction tax the EU will be isloating itself from the rest of the world, much as it has done with the EU-ETS, which is currently being opposed and challenged by Russia, China, India, the US and many S.American states and Far Eastern Sates.


Quote:
the City exist only because of Europe (and not the opposite),
re-writing history to suit a bigoted viewpoint there KAG?

Banking in the City of london predates 1290 AD.

Stock and commodity trading in london dates back to 1698 AD.


Eurozone banking system on the edge of collapse - Telegraph

Quote:
Senior analysts and traders warned of impending bank failures as a summit intended to solve the European crisis failed to deliver a solution that eased concerns over bank funding.

The European Central Bank admitted it had held meetings about providing emergency funding to the region's struggling banks, however City figures said a "collateral crunch" was looming.

"If anyone thinks things are getting better then they simply don't understand how severe the problems are. I think a major bank could fail within weeks," said one London-based executive at a major global bank.

Many banks, including some French, Italian and Spanish lenders, have already run out of many of the acceptable forms of collateral such as US Treasuries and other liquid securities used to finance short-term loans and have been forced to resort to lending out their gold reserves to maintain access to dollar funding.

"The system is creaking. There is a large amount of stress," said Anthony Peters, a strategist at Swissinvest, pointing to soaring interbank lending rates.

Last edited by stuckgear; 10th Dec 2011 at 19:00.
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Old 10th Dec 2011, 19:03   #116 (permalink)
 
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re-writing history to suit a bigoted viewpoint there KAG?
What else do you expect from someone who believes that the EU has kept world peace since 1945?
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Old 10th Dec 2011, 19:59   #117 (permalink)
 
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When was the last time he was seen in the House of Commons?

I believe the last time Gordon Brown Esq was in there was the last time he wanted his daily allowance - and he stayed for exactly the time needed to get it - and no longer.

Has he been seen in his home constituancy ? Anyone know ?
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Old 10th Dec 2011, 20:01   #118 (permalink)
 
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Wasn't there a rumour about a while that he was inhabiting a rubber room?
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Old 10th Dec 2011, 21:56   #119 (permalink)
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Eurozone leaders deluded if they think this 'sticking plaster' treaty can solve the debt crisis

So, now we know what the latest euro-crisis summit has to offer. The fifth comprehensive effort to stabilise the eurozone in nineteen months, this latest Brussels gab-fest produced a slew of headlines and initiatives. But what did it really achieve?

The single currency remains just as incoherent as it was last weekend, just as vulnerable to systemic collapse. The region’s banks and governments are still very highly indebted. Eurozone leaders are deluded if they think some diplomatic sticking plaster, and a lot of bluster, can hold together an inherently unstable structure. What’s more, to use a combination of borrowed and printed money to bail-out cash-strapped governments, which are insolvent largely because they, in turn, are standing behind insolvent banks, is to treat the symptoms of the crisis, not the cause. This historic policy error – tackling the results of the problem rather than the problem itself – has characterised the West’s response to this sub-prime fiasco from the very beginning, not just in the eurozone but in the UK and US too. Europe’s predicament is so much worse, though, given the restrictions imposed by the single-currency straitjacket.

It was David Cameron’s “veto” and the UK’s new status as “Europe’s outcast” that gained most attention, at least in the UK press. Of far more importance though, in Britain, Europe and the world, is whether these latest Brussels initiatives can prevent a “euroquake” - a disorderly, market-driven break-up of monetary union. Were that to happen, the economic shockwaves would be felt across the globe.

Prior to the summit, the European Central Bank slashed its 2012 eurozone GDP growth forecast from 1.3pc to 0.3pc. The refinancing rate was cut by 25 basis points, to 1pc. The ECB also unleashed a battery of “non-standard” measures to support Europe’s ailing banks. Refinancing operations were extended to three years and collateral eligibility expanded still further, making it easier for banks to borrow from the eurozone’s central bank. Reserve ratios were also lowered, the ECB throwing regulatory caution to the wind, in a bid to get eurozone banks lending. Then there were the measures adopted at the summit itself. Despite Britain’s veto of a EU-wide “fiscal compact”, eurozone members will press on with budgetary integration, but outside the EU’s legal framework. A new “stability union” will see member states adopting a “golden rule” to run structural deficits below 0.5pc of GDP. Countries breaching a 3pc of GDP deficit limit will be fined, unless qualified majority voting decides otherwise (that is, unless various governments agree to let one another off, which of course they will). These tired measures pave the way for “full fiscal union”, we’re told. Yet they’re almost identical to the failed “stability and growth pact” that was around when the euro launched, and which both France and Germany breached very shortly thereafter. In the end, such rules will always be broken because, when it comes to something as fundamental as tax and spend, eurozone governments will always do what their national electorates want, rather than following Brussels. We shouldn’t be surprised by this. Western Europe is a collection of sovereign democracies. This is how it should be.

Other announcements included the “rapid deployment” of the €440bn European Financial Stability Facility, to prop-up distressed governments such as those in Greece, Italy and Spain, preventing “contagion” from spreading across the eurozone. Yet no-one quite knows where the €440bn will come from. The eurocrats acknowledge this by referring to the EFSF as “leveraged”. But who will lend money to an entity that has no obvious income stream? The new European Stability Mechanism apparently has €500bn to spend, so bolstering the “firewall”. Yet another acronym we must add to the bail-out lexicon, the ESM will now come “on stream” by July 2012, earlier than previously expected. Again, though, we don’t know whose money it will be dishing-out. But we do know that Finland and Holland, among others, are furious France has insisted that decisions to wield whatever money the ESM eventually does have need not be unanimous. The Finnish Parliament has already judged this proposal as “unconstitutional”.

Something else we know is that the eurozone has agreed to “lend” €200bn to the International Monetary Fund via member states’ central banks, which the IMF can then lend back to eurozone member states. This amounts to another circumvention of the law. Eurozone governments can’t fund bail-outs directly, because their populations would be outraged and national parliaments would refuse. But by channeling money through central banks, and then “round-tripping” via the IMF, bail-out funds can be delivered while ignoring such democratic niceties. This is the kind of deeply immoral behavior the eurocrats present as a “break-through”.

The eurozone faces an imminent, acute funding problem. Member states need to repay over $1,100bn of debt in 2012, the bulk of it due in the first six months. On top of that, European banks, heavily dependent on state largesse, have around $665 billion of debt coming due by June next year. Germany still insists the ECB won’t be allowed to unleash full-on QE, or buy bonds much beyond the $210bn it has already sneakily spent. Many believe Angela Merkel will ultimately relent. I still don’t think she will, not least because her parliament and electorate won’t let her. That’s why the eurozone’s big test still lies ahead, even if that test may have been shelved until early next year, when the big re-financing needs come due.

This Brussels summit was an unseemly combination of law-bending and posturing. The coup de grace, for me, was the quiet agreement to drop any requirement for private sector holders of dodgy eurozone sovereign debts to incur losses. So much for moral hazard.

The fundamental problem remains that Europe’s banks remain locked-out of traditional funding markets, leaving them reliant on the ECB – which, in turn, is now increasingly reliant on covertly printed money and whatever the Chinese and others will ultimately chip-in. Faced with a funding freeze, banks are shrinking their balance sheets and strangling growth by refusing to lend, a problem the ECB’s “special measures” will do nothing to address.

The use of the ECB’s emergency lending facility rose last Wednesday to €9.4bn, the highest daily total since early March, pointing to deep-seated banking sector distress. Such distress relates, above all, to a lack of trust. Eurozone banks can’t raise cash, and won’t even lend to each other, due to crippling fears of counter-party risk, given that many continue to hide massive liabilities in so-called “special purpose vehicles”. Lawmakers, after all, still lack the courage to force them to fully disclose their losses. This lack of disclosure is the nub of the sub-prime problem. Nobody wants to hear it, but it’s true. Last week’s “stress tests” suggested Europe’s banks have a deficit of €115bn, up from €106bn in October. But these government-run tests lack credibility. The first round cleared some big Irish banks, which then went bust. A subsequent round gave Belgium’s Dexia a clean bill of health, just weeks before it imploded. And now the European authorities want the markets to believe this latest exercise in high-stakes financial spin.

No one knows who is solvent. The drip-drip of stress test information causes more problems than it solves. So stand-behind retail depositors, impose “full disclosure” and let the cards fall, forcing our bombed-out banks to consolidate. This really is the only solution – in the US, the UK and the eurozone. But the eurozone’s failure to grasp it will be far more explosive, given the pressures being created by this absurd monetary experiment.
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Old 10th Dec 2011, 23:56   #120 (permalink)

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ORAC, is this still/just cut 'n' paste
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