Alphecca1

Hi all,

Was their ever a definitive answer to weather the volcano eruption should have closed the airspace or not?? Was there a report? Or Debate on it published online??????

If anyone could assist i would be very interested to have a read.

Thanks in advance

Alphecca

Captain Stable

I think the inquiry was stalled because they couldn't find anyone who could pronounce the name of it...

(and especially not within the hallowed halls of the Beeb)

OFSO

It all went very quiet, as indeed did Fäfjolla.....Fafyyol.... the volcano, because any sort of an enquiry would have publicised the fact that the COMPLETE closure* was a stupid and expensive mistake.

*Re-routing would have of course been necessary to avoid the main plume.

The SSK

Eyjafjallajokull
Didn't need to look it up. Engraved on my memory.

You could start by looking here:
http://www.aea.be/assets/documents/p...s/PP_00320.pdf

Essentially:
Nobody knew how for sure much ash was coming out of the volcano
Nobody knew for sure how it was dispersing
Nobody knew for sure how it was dissipating
and finally
Nobody knew for sure how and in what concentrations it affected the engines.

So for each of these unknowns, a hefty safety margin was applied, which accumulated into the totally over-the-top decisions which were taken.

The world is divided into regions controlled by Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres. The London VACC has responsibility for UK, Ireland and Iceland (that's all ...). Because it happened on their patch, they called all the shots, without having to draw on expertise from elsewhere, including places which actually have experience of flying around active volcanoes, like Italy...

At one stage, the Toulouse VACC, which looks after the rest of Europe, Africa and the Middle East, overrode the London advisories and reopened French airspace because they believed there was no threat ...

An utter balls-up, from start to finish.

Alphecca1

Thank you SKK, that document I’m sure will give an interesting read.

So if not enough was known, surely its right to overestimate things?

But you’re saying they should have consulted specialists? Surely they spoke to scientists and meteorologist from all over the world?

OFSO

Surely they spoke to scientists and meteorologist from all over the world?

Spoke to ?.....possibly.

Understood what was said ?.......doubtful.

Free of bias and prejudices ?......c'mon, we are talking politicians and civil servants here !

Alphecca1

Free of bias and prejudices ?......c'mon, we are talking politicians and civil servants here !

What exactly do you mean by free of bias and prejudices?
Some examples?

Flying Serpent

Spoke to ?....Certainly did, several times a day during the event.

Understood what was said ?.......The messsage regarding expected ash concentrations and geographical coverage was conveyed as clearly as possible by the scientists.

Free of bias and prejudices ?......Can't speak for the politicians but do know the scientists were solely focused on the task in hand of trying to measure and estimate the extent of the ash cloud.

What TheSSK said
are all pretty much true although I'd disagree about it being a balls up. Nobody lost their life afer all. There are lessons to be learnt for sure, the engine manufacturers have been looking at engine performance parameters, the dispersion models are being refined and other ways of monitoring the ash are being developed by the meteorologists.

Volcanic ash related development activities - Met Office

corsair

I wonder, given the perceived over reaction to the ash cloud this time. What will happen next time? Particularly if the big one goes off. But lessons have been learned. As long as it doesn't end up with an airliner dead sticking into a field somewhere.

Never were the airwaves or airways so quiet. I was still working. But had the skies to myself. ATC asked me to report any encounter. You could actually see it when level with it and the smell was hard to miss not to mention the eye irritation. The layer I met was about 600 feet thick.

It was a very strange time.

yotty

I keep an eye on activity here Iceland Meteorological office - Earthquakes Iceland

James 1077

Mate of mine that I was at uni with has a new blog discussing volcanoes. He specialises in Icelandic type volcanoes so sort of knows his stuff.

His latest blog post is about the chances of ash closures in the future:

Ash cloud closes UK airports: what are the chances? | Volcan01010

SMT Member

End result of closing the airspace = no aircraft fell out of the sky. Therefore, politically, we have a success story. Besides, it was nice having a couple of days off.

Katamarino

If we banned all aircraft, none would fall out of the sky. I suppose that would be a success, then.

Many other countries have long experience dealing with volcanic ash. I suspect the "lessons" that the responsible bureaucrats claim to have learned from this instance have been known for decades in other locations.

hum

My son did a report here :-)

YouTube - Eyjafjallajökull