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Old 24th Jun 2007, 09:09   #1 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
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Just how depressed would you be?

The winners of the lottery this weekend will pocket 347,471.

I don't wish to appear greedy but I'd be pretty fed up if I won the lottery and couldn't even afford to buy a house, let alone the share in the Hurricane that's been advertised recently in Pilot!
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Old 24th Jun 2007, 09:14   #2 (permalink)
 
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I wouldn't tell anyone if I won, which I won't as I don't buy tickets. The q's always too long.
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Old 24th Jun 2007, 10:36   #3 (permalink)

More than just an ATCO
 
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Lotteries were described once as a taxation on the stupid, can't remember who said it, but they must save government a lot of money which otherwise would probably have to be given in grants
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Old 24th Jun 2007, 10:37   #4 (permalink)
 
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It was Adam Smith in "Wealth of Nations". The more one takes part in a lottery, the more one is guaranteed to lose was his general comment on them.
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Old 24th Jun 2007, 10:42   #5 (permalink)

More than just an ATCO
 
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Thanks, should have remembered that from Economics studies; though it was 40 years ago.
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Old 24th Jun 2007, 10:51   #6 (permalink)

Bluey
 
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Strewth mate, you would have to be a miserable bloody sort to actually win money ... and be fed up that it wasn't enough. Whatever happened to the idea of being pleased with your good luck?
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Old 24th Jun 2007, 11:56   #7 (permalink)

More than just an ATCO
 
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Depressed? reviving a long closed thread, This is depressed
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Old 24th Jun 2007, 12:00   #8 (permalink)
 
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It's enough to buy a very nice plane.
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Old 24th Jun 2007, 12:51   #9 (permalink)
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Disgusted of Tunbridge
 
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The lottery is a tax for people who don't understand statistics. It's dreadful, but as long as the public keeps funding it to the level they do, it means the money grasping politicians might just keep away from me a bit longer, so good on them for buying and supporting all that charity. But if you want to give to charity, do it, but not via a lottery! If I offered a small lottery raising 100 pounds, and gave pathetically small prizes of say total 25 pounds, you might feel aggrieved, but that is what is going on here. If people understood what is happening, they wouldn't touch it with a bargepole.
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Old 24th Jun 2007, 14:44   #10 (permalink)
Recidivist
 
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I have often thought they should cap the lottery top prize at, say, 3m.

(a) To cut out those obscenely high payouts, like the one that went to the chav in Essex who made his neighbour's lives hell, and

(b) To top up those as mentioned above to a more appropriate sum for someone who has won against humungous odds.
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Old 24th Jun 2007, 16:40   #11 (permalink)

Just Binos
 
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Quote:
The lottery is a tax for people who don't understand statistics.
You mean I'm not likely to win first prize?

Oh dear. And I am accused of being pompous!

Keep your dollar a week in your pocket and feel superior, Rainboe. Dreams are cheap for the rest of us.
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Old 24th Jun 2007, 23:24   #12 (permalink)
Bludger extraordinaire
 
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It must have been about ten or twelve years ago (because it was in Australia that I read it) - a grandmother had to forgo her buying of her Lotto ticket to buy her grandson a (soft) drink - she had no other money to hand. Her numbers came up, and she snuffed it very shortly afterwards - I do not think she offed herself, but she was meant to have been inconsolable after she found out.

As sad as this anecdote is, I think it's even sadder that people poor enough to only have 1 AUD on them will gamble it. That people hope for something for nothing rather than achieve through dint of hard work gives an insight into people's philosophy.

Quote:
The lottery is a tax for people who don't understand statistics
Utterly correct, and I'll take that a step further. It is a tax on the stupid. How many smartly-dressed people do you see buying scratch cards?

BOFH
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Old 24th Jun 2007, 23:44   #13 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
The lottery is a tax for people who don't understand statistics.
Nah, they understand the statistics alright, its just that they prefer the small chance of winning a big amount of money over the absolute certainty of losing small amounts of it over a longer time.

You're deluded if you're sure you're going to get rich through the lottery or any sort of gambling, but the chance is there, and some people take it. Little to do with statistic, more with incentives...
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Old 25th Jun 2007, 00:23   #14 (permalink)
 
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There are many people that play the lottery who understand the odds just fine.

The is a term that poker players use called 'utility' which is to do with considering the effects of hitting a lucky draw. The odds may be stacked against you but if you do get lucky then the effects of a lottery win are life changing. This 'utility' effect can offset some pretty bad bets and it applies to both the stake and the potential win. A pound wont buy you too much these days, and several million will buy quite a bit.

Try standing at the lottery ticket queue and offer people a 1 in 5 chance of winning 100 for a stake of 50. Far better odds than a lottery jackpot win but the utility has changed quite a bit. Now the stake represents a reasonable amount that most would like to keep in their pocket and anybody with 50 is not going to have their life changed by having 100. I think if you tried this you would find that lotto players understand the odds just fine, they also understand 'utility' even if they can't give it a name.

Incidently, 'utility' is also why billionaires don't tend to play the lottery
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Old 25th Jun 2007, 02:01   #15 (permalink)
 
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It's a tax on those who flunked math. You'd be surprised at how few people can manage basic math. A recent examples: A colleague was talking about a travelling salesman we both knew and he said "I'm sure he has driven at least a billion miles in his career"; I replied that was impossible. But he insisted, until I said "you realize that is equivalent to having driven 1,000,000 miles a year for the past 1,000 years?"...ooops, better check the math.

Quote:
Nah, they understand the statistics alright, its just that they prefer the small chance of winning a big amount of money over the absolute certainty of losing small amounts of it over a longer time.
If you take 10 bucks a week, starting at age 20, and invest it for 40 years in some good quality securities with a 7% annual return until you retire at 60, you'll have a pretty nice little sum of $114,000 give or take some change. And I have seen plenty of people blow more than $10 per week on lotteries. I would say they also prefer the small chance of winning a big amount of money over the certain chance of having a handsome little "rainy day" fund when they retire; that $114k, with an annuity at a very conservative 5% per annum, would generate a pension top-up of close to $6000 per year, or more than $100 per week. More than enough to pay for beer...

Or you could just use the $10 bucks for instant gratification...and buy beer!

Last edited by BeechNut; 25th Jun 2007 at 02:19.
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Old 25th Jun 2007, 03:55   #16 (permalink)
 
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Sorry Beechnut, but you are completely off track. Sure you can save your $10 a week, but it brings pathetically little gratification. In addition, (of which it has remarkably little) your $114.000 will just about buy you a twelve pack by the time you get to it, if you get to it. While the odds on your reaching 65 have improved, the chances are you'll die before you get to spend it.

When you buy a lottery ticket you are buying hope, albeit slim. Buy it as early as you can and enjoy the hope for as long as possible. Far more gratifying than the prospect of getting a twelve pack when you are 65,

If it is security in you old age you are hoping for, then you should absolutely ignore the blandishments and so called tax advantages of the pension industry. If you think lawyers are thieves and charlatans you should have a look at the pension and assurance business for a real example. They don't get exposed as much becuase half the time their victims are dead, and the other half they are too old to do anything about it.

Personally I expect and hope to wheel and deal until I die but if I had other ideas I would not be relying on those guys and their distortions of the financial system , even as a last resort.
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Old 25th Jun 2007, 05:44   #17 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
The lottery is a tax for people who don't understand statistics.
I think you mean:

"The lottery is a means for smug gits like me to feel even more superior and self-important than I already do."

Couple of quid a week isn't going to hurt me and I fully understand the concept of the 14,000,000-1 chance of the jackpot.

You want a proper tax on the stupid? Try cigarettes.
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Old 25th Jun 2007, 06:43   #18 (permalink)

Evertonian
 
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Quote:
347,471
= AUD818,290.32
Get you a very noice house in Oz that would!

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Old 25th Jun 2007, 07:33   #19 (permalink)
1DC
 
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How many smartly-dressed people do you see buying scratch cards?

Stood behind a well dressed chap in top hat and tails at Ascot on saturday who was being paid over a 1000 in winnings, he then bet on horse number 17 in the next race.Realising i was in the company of an actual winner i changed my bet to number 17. Number 17 duely came second to last. so continuing my trend as a loser i freely admit to doing the lottery most weeks and i enjoy thinking about what i will do when i win the top prize.......
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Old 25th Jun 2007, 07:47   #20 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Oslo, Norway
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Quote:
347,471
= 920,000 YTL

Gets you a mansion in arguably the most beautiful part of Turkey, with a perfect panoramic view of the Aegean Sea, and a swimming pool.

http://www.sahibinden.com/displayitem.php?a=4049522

Depressed??? Hardly!
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