Math isn't my strong suit so check the numbers for yourself. But I show that if every single "Toss Up" state -- FL, NC, WV, OH, IN, MO, ND and NV -- went for McCain, Obama still wins. Add VA into McCain's column (13 votes) and Obama still wins.
Fivethirtyeight.com shows Obama with a 92.5% chance of winning the election. Obama has a 75% chance of winning Florida (FL) and a 72% chance of winning Ohio (OH).
After all, as you have made perfectly clear at least twenty times in this thread, you are not interested in the opinion of anybody who doesn't have a vote in the forthcoming election.
Not much of a reader of the details, I guess. Re-read my posts on the subject; I've said p1ss off to any non-vote holding, non-US citizen telling me how to cast my vote. I've welcomed the views and opinions of non-US ppruners on the election, the candidates, etc, etc.
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I'm surprised you even bother to respond to my post. Does it strike a nerve somewhere? Is there something inside you that knows that a huge backlash against Obama when the time comes to vote can only be due to one thing, or could it be a case of middle America suddenly coming to its political senses and realising that the course of the last eight years is the one and true path?
Nope. I believe Obama will lose because of the two very weak main candidates for President, he is the most liberal, scary to the American public, as varied as it is. (Note: the 'white' American majority is either nearing not being a majority, or already is. One of the great things about my country is its constant evolution).
As for 'bothering to respond to you,' the courtesy you display does tend to inhibit the habit.
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Am I accusing middle America of innate racism? You betcha. You asked for it, you've got it. If McCain gets up there can be no other reason, no matter how you try to disguise it.
Very neat plan. If Obama wins, you can crow about how 'right you are (no pun intended),' and if he loses, it's solely due to his skin color and the masses being racist. So if he wins, he's the better man/leader. If he loses, it's because he's black. I expected better from you.
I think in the final analysis (mine anyway, which is the only one I care about), your thinking says much more about you than it does me.
P.S. I liked it better when you left the fray on this thread in a huff. A sequel would be appreciated.
I didn't leave anything in a huff. I've given you my sequel.
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Very neat plan. If Obama wins, you can crow about how 'right you are (no pun intended),' and if he loses, it's solely due to his skin color and the masses being racist. So if he wins, he's the better man/leader. If he loses, it's because he's black. I expected better from you.
Those who think Obama will win can't really win this argument, can we? You have an excuse whichever way it goes, and you and your fellow "undecided" voters who have quoted Colin Powell as an example of your tolerance (I won't mention any names) can sit back and feel superior, the very charge laid against democrats.
To borrow your own phrase, I expected better from you.
I've learned a lot about American politics in the last year, but nothing more important than the hypocrisy of those who claim to be swinging voters but who are in fact rusted on conservatives pretending to be able to see both sides.
But I've also learned that my opinion doesn't count.
Even then, the subject will have to go through the grist mill of Congress.
Thanks for making my point for me.
With a democratically controlled Congress and very liberal democrat president, you can be assured that the unions will resist any attempt at accountability or change, status quo remains, and schools will be the same, or worse, in four years time.
Looking at those facts, what mr Sowell writes is blatantly fallacious and painfully ignorant
I am happily not getting into the choice of President. We just had our very own little election here and it worked out fine for me. That is enough pro tem.
I do have reservations about the statistics ("facts") referred to. For example, I see that in South Korea there are 3/1000 births to teenagers, but in Niger 233/1000. What does that tell me? Does it mean that: (a) the kindergartens in South Korea teenage do a great job of sex education and those in Niger do not? That the little kinder in South Korea actualy go to the garten but those in Niger do not? That the South Koreans, whom I know only from my daughter's progress to black belt at Tae Kwon Do, and my own lesser accomplishment, appear to be very self-disciplined and maybe those from Niger are not? And so on endlessly?
What do these national statistics mean at all nowadays? Are the statistics for West Sussex the same as those for Wigan? The Island of Arran (440 square miles) has a population of some 5000. I do not know what it was in my childhood, but I expect not less. At that time there was no policeman on the Island (except for a few days at the sheep dipping). What would he do all day? If you were out walking and were hot you simply took off your sweater and left it by the roadside, to be collected on return. Sure enough, there it would be. Try that in a large city centre.
When I read that there has been another multiple shooting in Toronto and I see the seven "suspects" being decanted from the Police wagon, do they often look as if they were fresh from Arran?
Last edited by Davaar : 21st October 2008 at 21:26.
Reason: spelling
Two weeks to go and I for one look forward to coming on here and congratulating Americans for choosing Obama to lead their country after 8 years of painful disaster.
McCain has fought a particularly unpleasant campaign excellently articulated by Colin Powell with nasty and unnecessary insinuation to mischievously scaremonger.
The difference in debating styles is manifest. One is articulate, calm and eloquent whilst the other is negative, bumbling and aggressive. And give me Biden over that lunatic Palin anytime if God forbid, something were to happen to the President.
Surely Americans will come to their senses this time round
Reading your stuff, Davaar, I get the impression that what you'd really like is a nice civil war whereupon all the nasty people who drag down your indicators get sent to the other end of the country so you can hang out with the nice people and have indicators you can be proud of. There you are, with a life expectancy of 70, and overnight it could become 82. An extra 12 years of life for you and who cares about those nasty people who now go down to a life expectancy of 58 but as they aren't part of your unit anymore, and there is the big wall between you so you don't see them, it really doesn't matter.
But don't feel too bad about it, there are plenty of other folk on this thread who probably feel the same way. You can all go and hang out in a bar together and have a jolly good time
You're welcome. And when we start paying teachers enough to attract some quality people you'll still be left with the fact that parents (both parents) have to work so many jobs now to make ends meet that we'll still be stuck with a lack of parental involvement.
Complex problems rarely have simple answers -- like vouchers.
Ah yes. Surely that is a great determinant of an effective president, preserving, protecting, and obeying the Constitution, and leading us into greater prosperity.
When a Kiwi bleats longingly for the architects of our impending depression, its like my 13 year old Jack Russell Terrier barking support for the mental Rotty that walks by...does PPRuNe have a rolled up newspaper with duct tape (a provider of reality checks for insignificant canines...and countries?)?
Do us all a favour and do something significant about the global financial situation then, Track. I'm sure it won't be a problem for a self-procalimed genius philantropist ex-Military Intelligence Field Marshal such as yourself, operating from the significant global SuperPower of Australia.
The impending depression, if it does indeed prove to be such, is simply the bust half of the boom-and-bust cycle which defines the prevailing global monetary system, which is being beat up more than usual by the media because there is an election in the US and it's an otherwise slow time for News. You worry too much, my dear fellow. Go and read Levi Johnston's fake blog again. You may find it comforting.
Brick, I'll happily take you up on that
I only make one bet a year with real money Binos, and that's on the Melbourne Cup.
Poor old McCain (The War hero) and the vaguely fit hockey mom, Miss Palin appear indeed to be the sacrificial lambs.
Seen it all before after the Thatcher years (Tories still have not recovered)
After the absurd, cataclysmic Bush years, who in their wildest, blinkered, dyed in the wool, republican dream could ever imagine a victory.
I often wonder if poor, lumbering old McCain realised he was a stooge, or if he really thought he had a chance.
Hockey Chick of course, walks onstage as the real contender. Not for this time of course, but for after the eternal left right swing, swings back in favour of her party.
So Obama it is.
After the globally disasterous Bush dynasty, anything will be a breath of fresh air.
You are a desperate, sad lot you hangers on to defunct republicanism.
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